wncsnow

This one is doing the opposite

This could be our storm. Most enthusiastic I've felt in a LONG time

Its picking up on some downsloping if the ULL gets going just east. However if the Lee side low sets up, the minima will be closer to the Piedmont IMO.

Tonight's NAM could be an all timer

AIFS is good too

Let's see what Dr. AI NO says

I expect modest increases on the Euro and EPS

Shes saying alot

Also what she said

Dont believe it. We could see a maxima instead.

If the Euro AI comes in wetter, we could be really ont something.

Regular GFS is gonna be a dream run

This meso low could mean business.

AIGFS crushes western Piedmont

I think Gemini is reading my mind lol

This storm is really reminding me more and more of this one. The setup is quite similar.

Gemini wasn't completely out to lunch on precip totals. It also said this FWIW. Pressure Drop in the Foothills: As the air from the ULL crashes over the mountains, it "stretches" the air column on the eastern side (the lee side). This creates a localized area of lower pressure near Marion and Morganton. Increased Moisture Convergence: This mini-low acts like a vacuum. Even though the main coastal storm is trending east, this lee-side feature is pulling moisture back toward the mountains. The "Inverted Trough": In the 12Z WN2, there is a clear "Inverted Trough" (a tail of low pressure) extending from the coast back toward the Foothills. This setup is a classic "snow-maker" for WNC because it forces the moisture to stay pinned against the mountains rather than just blowing past. The result on the 12Z Maps: Asheville: Instead of seeing "downsloping" (which usually dries out the air), the ULL is so strong that it’s overcoming that effect. The lee-side low is keeping the air "rising" rather than sinking, which is why your QPF actually went up in the latest run. Marion/Morganton: You are in the "sweet spot" for this enhancement. The WN2 shows a convergence zone setting up right over McDowell County where the moisture from the coast meets the cold air spilling over the ridge. This is why Marion’s liquid total jumped to 0.95".

It was unlikely the coastal would give us much anyways. Its all ULL/leeside enhancement or bust.

So maybe Gemini wasn't totally lying. You can see the heavier precip near the Blue Rudge

Verbatim its still a nice 2-4 or 3-6 storm (high ratios) for most of WNC and SC.

The coastal seems out of question now, this is all ULL snow

So yeah, dont trust Gemini outputs

Yeah sounds dubious

That is a fair question, and I appreciate the check—I am definitely looking at the January 31 forecast, not the storm that just passed. The reason they seem similar is that we are in a "repeat" pattern. Winter Storm Fern (which just finished yesterday, Monday, Jan 26) was a massive event that hit the Carolinas hard. The WeatherNext 2 (WN2) 12Z run is now focusing on the next system—a new Southern Stream low—developing for this coming Saturday. Here is how I am distinguishing the two to ensure I’m not mixing up the data: The "New" Storm (Jan 31) vs. Fern (Jan 24–26) The Track: Fern was a broader system that dragged a lot of ice through the Piedmont early on. The Jan 31 storm in the 12Z WN2 run is a more classic Miller Type-A coastal low, which typically results in heavier snow for the mountains (like Asheville) compared to Fern’s ice-heavy profile. Pre-existing Conditions: The 12Z run for Saturday specifically factors in the snowpack and ice left behind by Fern. This is why the WN2 is predicting such "extreme" impacts for Marion and Asheville—it's forecasting new snow falling on the 1–3 inches of ice/slush Fern left behind. The Upper Level Low (ULL): As we discussed, the ULL for this weekend’s storm is currently still out West. Fern’s ULL has already moved off the Northeast coast and is currently hammering New England. Why the 12Z Run is "Aggressive" The 12Z run isn't just "remembering" Fern; it’s using the arctic air mass that Fern pulled down to set the stage for Saturday. Because Fern "opened the door" for the cold, the WN2 sees a much higher probability that Saturday’s moisture stays as snow for Asheville. Current Signal: The 12Z WN2 shows 88% confidence that Asheville remains below freezing for the entire Saturday event, whereas during Fern, there were several hours where the temperature flirted with 33°F.