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wncsnow

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Everything posted by wncsnow

  1. wncsnow
    I'm mostly worried about flash flooding not main stem river flooding
  2. wncsnow
    Lets hope the latest Hi Res models are overdone
  3. wncsnow
    Gotta take the over on this for most spots.
  4. wncsnow
    It's easy to get nervous after what happened 2 years ago
  5. wncsnow
    Still waiting on GSP to pull the trigger
  6. wncsnow
    Latest Euro. Flash flood threat ramps up tomorrow evening.
  7. wncsnow
    It's hard to believe we aren't even under a flood watch.
  8. wncsnow
    Sure looks like this will be our heaviest rain event since Helene along the escarpment. I just wonder if there will be any new landslides where the soil is still loose from last time.
  9. wncsnow
    Flash flooding could become a concern tomorrow night as those feeder bands train over the same areas. HRRR shows these and some other modeling as well
  10. wncsnow
    Models keep trending up with rain for us as the storm is slightly east of forecast track each cycle.
  11. wncsnow
    I think areas closer to the Blue Ridge will do well due to the flow from the SE/uplift but there could be a precip minima near the I-77 corridor or a little east of there.
  12. wncsnow
    I like 50-75 miles east of there similar to Google. The 12Z GFS and ICON moved east.
  13. wncsnow
    I think the worst is Sat. after the game but I expect there to be upslope showers by kickoff at App. I think the escarpment gets 4-6 easily from this maybe more. We should be able to handle that with the antecedent conditions being fairly dry. Anything more than 8 and its trouble.
  14. wncsnow
    Euro has a much deeper storm this run compared to last.
  15. wncsnow
    Euro AI looks similar to the UK and Google
  16. wncsnow
    If that system goes west of us we will get SE flow and orographical uplift on the Blue Ridge. I could easily see 4-6" of rain with more along the crest.
  17. wncsnow
    The southern stream is still dead. It should wake up for real in the next month or 2
  18. wncsnow
    The rain amounts are definitely a lot lower on most models. Looks like less than an inch for most of WNC now and possibly less than .50 for the northern foothills and piedmont.
  19. wncsnow
    54 at the house. Stayed cloudy/foggy
  20. wncsnow
    We've only gotten 1.82 since the event started a few days ago but I'm not complaining
  21. wncsnow
    The NAM is gone too early. It still has some gas in the tank. I can already foresee this winter having a CAD situation where we are wishing to see what the NAM is showing.
  22. wncsnow
    CAD seems likely. I'm more interested in what may potentially develop in the Gulf or off the SE Coast. Euro and other models hinting at something. Potential heavy rains.
  23. wncsnow
    1.88 in the last 24 hours
  24. wncsnow
    Not ideal
  25. wncsnow
    Thanks for reminding me I didnt update it
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