Tatamy
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Everything posted by Tatamy
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That is why the Ukmet run surprises me. Once the data from first flight was uploaded the GFS went east. Maybe the Ukmet will go back east tonight. Let’s wait on the ensembles.
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12z Euro continues to be east and weaker. 12z HWRF/HMON are aimed at the vicinity of New Bedford,MA. 12z Ukmet is west. Too early to write this one off.
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Haven’t they flown the Gulfstream jet out off the mid Atlantic coast to sample the upper levels? I think they were actually going to send it out again.
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Latest discussion from the NHC indicates that Henri makes it’s closest approach to the region Sunday morning. It is projected to have winds of 85 mph with an expanding wind field. This aligns with a high tide in sync with a full moon. This is a recipe for significant coastal flooding.
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Do you have any recollection of the surge impacts from Sandy? Those impacts spread beyond the beach. They actually spread as far inland as the NJ Turnpike near Secaucus plus a few other low spots.
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So you don’t care about wind and surge with a TC. Okay.
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That is not correct. Any significant tropical or non-tropical system can cause surge issues in the New York bight. The center only needs to move northwards parallel to the coast or linger off shore in order to build high tides in along the coast. The Perfect Storm of 1991 was a good example. I drove along Ocean Pkwy during the event and the water was up to the shoulder of the road along the bay side near Captree.
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2.95” with the overnight deluge out here.
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Quite a deluge over the past few hours from the remnants of Fred. 2.64” so far.
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I second that request. Plenty of lightning so far with these storms.
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12z HWRF at 60 hours is 20mb deeper than the 06z run. It’s also further west.
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Tornado watch issued for much of eastern Pennsylvania. -
Bingo!!
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With a track like this higher tides will begin to cause flooding in susceptible coastal areas Saturday morning.
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There are no absolutes as far as track goes with this one. The models are still working it. There is a full moon on Sunday morning so the coastal flood threat is very real.
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From the 0z run to the 06z run of the HWRF the center is moved a full 3 degrees west in longitude. That is huge.
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06z HMON winds at 114 hours
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06z GFS
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Next Full moon is Sunday 8/22. As currently projected there will be coastal flooding impacts from Henri. This could be the most significant impact from the storm in our area.
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Next Full moon is Sunday 8/22. The track and timing of this storm are going to have coastal flooding impacts to the mid Atlantic region and northeast.
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They confirmed today that this was in fact a tornado. It was rated EF0 and the path ran for 3/4 mile in a remote wooded area near the Lakehurst Naval Air Station. They needed an aerial survey in order to get confirmation.
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I received 0.01”. They literally ran out of gas a few blocks from me. Lol
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Fred was not upgraded to a TS at 11pm. NHC now expecting it to regain TS status during Friday. Recon says that the mid level center is still 40 miles east of the LLC. This means reintensification will be slow to occur at best.
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Did you read the 5pm discussion from the NHC? The part about 20 kts of shear and a lack of organization? The system is not projected to re-attain Tropical Storm status until Friday night when it passes 100 miles south of Miami. This is not going to hit Miami as a hurricane. There may well be other storms that threaten Miami with hurricane force winds this season but not this one.
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I posted on the potential for this to happen yesterday. It’s not uncommon for this to happen especially with these weaker systems.
