Have been seeing our 1st flurries of the season this morning. There are some light snow showers scattered around in eastern PA and the NW suburbs of NYC.
Your theory has verified out here. Strongest gust to 36 mph just before the squall line hit. Still gusts to about 20 mph with heavy rain, lightning and thunder as it passes through here.
Radars in central PA looking fairly impressive at this time with the squall line now passing to the east of the Harrisburg area. Ground obs are indicating that the strongest winds are remaining aloft however. Wind gusts in that area have maxed out in the 30 to 40 mph range so far.
Strongest winds I could find recently along the south shore were 50 mph at Shinnecock inlet. Winds appear to have lessened at places further west along the shore.
I am amazed that I have been able to get current reports from Fire Island tonight. In any case the models did project these winds along the shore with this event.
Winds had been relatively light here during the past hour however they have just started to really increase from the west and NW. Just had a gust to 24 mph from the west.
Event total now up to 2.36” and still raining here in Bethlehem. Getting road closures in my area due to flooding. Model projections of 2 - 4” across northern NJ, eastern NY, and New England look good to me.