Tatamy

Steady very light snow 24/21 - light coating on paved surfaces.

Who cares where he posts from?? The issue of timely warnings / advisories applies to everybody.

Based upon the available model outputs the probability of 6”+ snow fall is not high enough to justify a WSW south of the Poconos in the LV. That is what the NWS is looking at. Maybe a WWA gets issued later.

It was not even the phasing so much as the incredible bombing and intensification of SLP as it moved NNE along the coast that morning. My barometer read under 28.60 when it passed where I was at on the north shore of LI.

Do you really think 2-2-76 is a potential analog for this?

Have just changed over here in Bethlehem Twp. to rain/sleet mix - 32/31. 2” new

What are your thoughts regarding freezing rain potential on the north shore of LI into the city based upon the NAM surface projections during Saturday night?

SREF??

We had a severe ice storm on LI in January 1978. I have pictures of trees and shrubs in my yard encased in 1-2” of ice. The pictures are amazing. I could upload them but because of the file size restrictions on this board I am unable to do so.

It may have been 2007.

I have seen an extended period of heavy freezing rain at +12.

I am starting to see some flurries up here in Bethlehem.

Starting to see some flurries here in Bethlehem PA.

Having lived through the many winters of the 70s and 80s and early 90s I can assure you that there was no bias towards colder weather. You do know that there was a period of 20 years back then where there were only 4 KU events in the region. Average annual snowfalls were much less than they are now.

I would go with 2/78 and 1/16. 2/78 was especially dramatic with high winds and low near zero visibility’s for hours on end along with 30” of snow. 1/16 also brought 30” of snow with very high rates. As dramatic as Boxing Day was its most significant impacts were felt in eastern NJ and places to the north and east of there in the region. We only had a couple of inches from that one here.

The 35-40 dbz echos near Allentown and Bethlehem PA is a graupel shower mixed with some large snow flakes. The intensity is way overdone on radar.

There is light snow falling along I81 to the NE of Harrisburg just along and north of the ridge near Fort Indiantown Gap going towards Frackville. There is also some light snow along western sections of I78 at this time.

Folks to the north of the city just saw cirrus for most of the biggest storms. Then we had the storm where the rain/ snow line set up along / near the Hudson River. Probably one of the biggest screw jobs ever for the weenies in NE.

Light snow at my house in Bethlehem, PA

How about Groundhog Day in 1976? Do you remember that. That was on a school day. Woke up to blinding heavy snow, wind gusts estimated to 40 to 60 mph (estimated as my wind instruments were frozen solid) continuous thunder and lightning, and my barometer dropping past 28.60”. No one ever talks about that one and it was not forecasted either. Low pressure unexpectedly bombed on an arctic front.

Remember those busts very well too. Funny thing is with one of those events back in the early 80s enough snow made it up the coast so ACY received 1” and I experienced flurries where I was.

Regarding 1-20-78 Alan Kasper on Ch 2 had 3-6” in the 11pm news the night before. He said the storm was tracking about 50 miles further east than expected. There were reports on WCBS am of truckers encountering a wall of snow near exit 8 on the NJ Turnpike at about 10 pm the night before as the precip moved up the coast. I awoke at 6am in East Northport to a strange darkness on my 2nd floor side window as it was blocked by a snow drift on the garage roof. Accuweather on 1010 WINS and WCBS kept increasing snow totals while indicating that a change to sleet and rain was moving north along the NJ coast but was delayed. I was 16 and had never seen anything like this before. I was too young to remember the Lindsay storm in 1969. The young guys on these boards have no idea how good they have it as compared to those of us who grew up in the 70s and 80s in this region. It was my greatest surprise snow storm bust to the upside. November 15th of this year would be #2.

Wet snow flakes mixing with the rain here under the 40 dbz echos. 37 degrees.

I live in the Lehigh Valley of Pennsylvania. We had a snowstorm on 11/15. Similar to this situation the models were showing heavy amounts for my area. The FV3 consistently showed 10”+ for me for 2 - 3 days prior. The Mets blew them off. The model outputs were contaminated by sleet they said. We were forecasted to get 1-3” by the NWS office. On the 15th as the storm was getting underway at 12pm and I was out on my back deck photographing the arrival of a wall of snow we were upgraded to a WSW. By 6pm we were at 8 1/2” of snow before we changed over to sleet. We picked up another 1 1/2” by the next morning to bring the storm total up to 10”. The bottom line is those who are blowing off these model outputs do so at their own risk. The FV3 proved to be correct. Many many people spent the night out on the highway because they could not get home.

It’s not over. Underway with the backside now. Moderate snow 1/2 visibility 33*