Tatamy
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Everything posted by Tatamy
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There have been comments made about the snow amounts being provided by the RGEM (RDPS). One of the Mets on the board- SnowGoose - provided an explanation this morning on this thread regarding this. It has to do with the Synoptics playing out with this storm and how the model handles it. -
The gradient will be sharp however it may not be quite that sharp. This may be related to how the algorithm used by the website uses the output provided by the model.
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There is going to be a fairly sharp gradient between those areas that get the heavy snow and those that don’t. This is something that is actually more common than you might think. In this case that gradient looks to set up along I287. It might not be quite as sharp as the output shown on the clown map.
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Note that there is no longer a blizzard watch. If Parameters are met then the WSW goes straight to a blizzard warning.
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Mt. Holly has me under a WSW and a wind advisory for tomorrow so I guess they can. I am actually wondering if a short fused blizzard warning gets issued tomorrow for those N and W areas that are getting the heavy snows. The winds will be strong enough however the question is will the required visibility parameters be met (1/4 mile or less for 3 hours). With those winds you will get significant blowing and drifting and that could trigger it.
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Mt. Holly upgrades Sussex and Warren and parts of eastern PA to a WSW. The remainder of NJ that is N and W of I95 gets a WWA. Wind advisories also issued.
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That’s probably a good time estimate. I am anticipating the changeover about 8 AM out where I am in Bethlehem, PA. One thing that I do not feel is being emphasized enough will be the strong winds which will result in blowing and drifting of the snow especially to the N and W of NYC. Winds could reach 30-40 mph in gusts and this will have major impacts on travel in those areas.
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With the 12z run the HRRR has 4-8” anywhere along and to the N and W of I95.
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As modeled the 12z NAM suite would result in near blizzard conditions for places along and to the N and W of I287 in NW NJ and SE NY. The transition from rain to wind blown heavy snow would take place Saturday morning in those areas.
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18z GEFS increases the chance of 4” or more for the Saturday storm in NW NJ from 15% to 65%. It’s interesting how the ensemble mean moved east while the OP moved back to the NW with this run.
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There is a second round on its way. We have flipped over to heavy snow here.
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This is all about rates. Elevation doesn’t hurt either. Look at mPING to see the variation in precip type across the region.
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I was just looking at a traffic cam where the Sagtikos meets the NSP and the grass is completely covered out there.
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With water temps only in the low 40s you folks in Suffolk Cty especially north of the LIE could get a few inches out of this one if the dynamics work out. I have 36 with light rain/drizzle out here.
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A check of the webcams across southern and SE PA indicates that most precip is currently falling as very light rain/drizzle or white rain. The exception is under the heavier echos currently located to the south and west of Lancaster and Harrisburg. In that area there is heavier snow falling particularly in the York area. This looks to be the beginning of the set up of the FG band that the models have been showing. The snow is actually coating the ground in that area.
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Mt. Holly is going for 1/2” to 1” under where the FG band is progged to set up in their CWA. Even at 5:1 there is a good chance this busts higher (2-3”). The 0z RAP has 4-5” at 5:1 in a part of Bucks Cty. Tomorrow morning looks to be quite interesting if this FG does set up.
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Mt. Holly reporting that an observer reported a wind gust to 66 mph in a nearby town to me. If you are in western/central NJ you need to pay attention to this squall line.
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Had a wind gust to 42 mph with the passage of this squall line along with lightning and thunder.
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Have just recorded a wind gust to 42 mph with this squall line. The temperature dropped 13 degrees in a few minutes. It is currently producing thunder and lightning as well. Temperature down to 56.
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Winds have gone calm here with the passage of the showers. We gusted to over 30 mph earlier. Down to 60 from a high of 72 earlier.
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Places just to the north and west and southwest with a little elevation can definitely see a few inches especially where banding sets up. In the city I would agree with the white rain idea however the outer boroughs could see accumulations. With ocean temperatures in the low 40’s I would strongly agree that LI could see accumulations as well. As Walt said there will likely be minimal accumulation on paved surfaces.
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I put two bags of ice melt on my 1/2” of sleet with ice on the driveway. The precip is done, the temperature is up to 37, and my sleet and ice is all melted.
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0.5” sleet and 0.25” ice. Like most other places very icy here. 30/29
