powderfreak

Yeah, the thermals are always garbage, like it posted last night northerly winds to the Sound and it tried to warm it to 40F in CT. But inside of 48 hours the overall synoptic revolution of heaviest snow in RT 2 to SVT/SNH was definitely congrats GFS. I do agree that 3-4 days ago the GFS was too amped for sure. Hard to really quantify it. The Euro just had some hiccup suppressed runs...but then again so did GGEM and ICON etc...it was NCEP vs the world there for a bit with getting measurable snow up to Dendrite.

This was just 3 runs ago. Euro was almost a non-event north of the Pike. GFS was significantly more robust and again, we always toss GFS thermals but in terms of lift and moisture it destroyed the EURO inside of 48 hours.

What? Spin city. The EURO last night at 18z had like a non-event in the RT 2 corridor. It had like Jack shit for moisture and lift north of the Pike. It was pretty terrible. Don’t make me post the progs. The Ensembles were much further north with lift and moisture throughout.

I think the GFS thermals don’t help it’s case but synoptically it’s been very consistent with region-wide precip, none of this deep suppression stuff. There were runs of the EURO/GGEM/ICON in the last 24-30 hours that seemed to struggle to get deeper moisture and lift into RT 2 area.

In 3 runs the Euro went from partly sunny up here to about 0.25” QPF with this system. Not overly impressive showing by that model so far. The GFS seems to be the most consistent in the overall synoptic evolution, thermal profiles aside for SNE.

Bread and butter on Wednesday evening. This is obscene at BTV during rush hour. Snow growth smack in some insane lift as that arctic shortwave moves through...that has another evening of absolute mayhem on I-89 written all over it.

We’ll probably get similar snow totals to places south but on half the QPF in that Euro run....mid level lift sort of rots over NNE. All the models have the DGZ up in the 700-550mb zone up here and that’s where the best mid-level lift is too.

lol Kuchie Koo gone wild in NNE between the first event and the arctic shortwave.

That was a great look on the Euro for high ratio snows in NNE. Might need to break out the Kuchie maps.

Man, that arctic shortwave Wednesday has some punch to it. Hard not to envision widespread squalls as that thing barrels through for the evening commute. GFS NAM

EURO and GFS are both very dynamic up here. Spitting out some decent QPF too. Snow growth looks like it should get very good with that, probably why those Kuchie techniques are printing 6-12" in the mountains, lol. I really like that look for a dynamic fun late afternoon and evening on Wednesday.

What a weenie Kuchie on that 00z GFS over the next 4 days, lol. 20 or 30:1 ratios. Ride a horse, save a Euro.

A light resurfacing. This should groom in nicely.

Persistent flurry continues. At least it's white again out there. Snowfall has been nickle and dime this month with some solid thaws, but the amount of bare ground has been limited due to timely CAA snows.

Good grief... on a Sunday evening none-the-less. What the hell happened on 89 in the western BTV suburbs. VSP HAZARDOUS TRAVEL ALERT: Travel remains treacherous due to snow and ice on Interstate 89, especially along the corridor between Richmond (exit 11) and Burlington (exit 14), although hazardous conditions persist along much of the highway and secondary roads. Traffic is reported to be stopped both northbound and southbound from exit 11-14, with as many as 30 or more slide-offs and other crashes.

In Stowe alone, RT 108 closed due to accidents at Harlow Hill just by the XC Center at the ski area.... took folks leaving the mountain almost an hour at 4pm to get out as Stowe PD shut the road down until it could be plowed/salted. Apparently it was so slick you could barely walk on the pavement near the cars that ended up into the guardrail there. Barrows Road was also closed for a bit near the High School due to an accident and RT 100 was shut down for a time by Gregg Hill Rd near that wood carving place. A friend who left the mountain at 5:45pm just got home to Burlington at 8:30pm. Said I-89 was a pure skating rink with snow on top of it and every highway board was just flashing "CRASHES DRIVE WITH CAUTION".... 5-15mph the whole way from Waterbury to Burlington with occasional periods of full stoppage. There's a FB video I saw of folks getting out of their cars to stretch, and then sliding on the black ice even standing there. High impact event.

Ha, Mother Nature has given SNE the winter taste after last season, and that won't be satiated for quite a while. But good for them, they had it really rough last year while we were piling up feet in the hills. I'm glad we put down almost 2" in squalls at home today... grass covered again and looks like winter with blowing snow, comes with the benefit of very little shoveling too. It's always odd to me that I check the models all the time on little events like Tuesday but then you get some squalls and it delivers probably more snow than the highly tracked event. Regarding Tuesday... certainly not feeling all warm and fuzzy, the convective looking stuff after that event though might be interesting.

GFS usually has a SE bias, so I’m going with that for now .

2-3” wind blown. Snowy evening. Probably more snow in a couple hours from some squalls than this system everyone is tracking, lol.

Getting destroyed. Quick 2” so far at 1500ft. Whiteout at times.

Squalls mean business. “Traffic is currently stopped on VT 108 in both directions due to conditions on the road. VTrans is en route. 12/15/19 3:04 PM”

Loving these lake streamers into the Mansfield Massif. Pounding again. Quick 1-2” so far this afternoon.

Just getting crushed at the mountain in these squalls. Very low vis at times. Almost graupel filled too, convective.

Good to see more posts from Dryslot and not 10 pages of new posts after the 12z NAM/GFS. Must be better up here then. Less posts good, more posts bad. Usually a good indicator, better than any single model.

Holy winds. Gusting 55mph at the base area and 70mph higher up. Kids rolling like tumbleweeds in the gusts. Snowing most of the morning too...mostly cosmetic snow to whiten it up again.