powderfreak

I’m heading back north to Stowe but friends are saying it’s the first accumulation in Stowe. This was 1,300ft.

If you ever get up this way I’ll join ya for some beers for sure.

I wish there was a love button.

I may push back sometimes on deep cold anomalies in mid-winter bringing good snows up here (suppression), but deep cold in November almost always seems to play out well in the end. Gonna be an expensive heating bill for November again this year it looks like regardless.

Ah shit I keep forgetting about that lol. In my head I have it as GFS 2-M runs warm but that’s CAD scenarios.

It does look absolutely frigid relative to normal going forward starting mid-week. Over the next 16 days GFS 2-meter anomalies look to run roughly -4F or -5F from the Cape to -8F or -9F in NNE mtns. The more impressive stretch is seeing widespread 7-day departure progs from Thurs to the following Thurs of -8F to -16F. This is frigid for week long anomalies.

Ha back on topic, in all honesty the GFS is pretty damn impressive as it suppresses it so much it brings a substantial snow to parts of the southern mid-Atlantic. North Carolina and southern Virginia shoveling on Nov 8-9 would be rare.

They don’t call it the Polar Plunge for nothing... go deep or go home.

Huh? It’s still there. I thought we were all riding the ICON? 12-20” on Friday. Massive early season event on that 00z run

This strikes me as a system that will suppress and maybe disappear, then come back a bit in the short range...starting with some NAM run like 36 hours out. Nothing scientific about that. Just tea leaves.

Always nice to see ski season references in the AFD. BTV knows even if it doesn’t snow we can all enjoy some good snowmaking. From NWS BTV.... "There is disagreement on how to handle this feature beyond Thursday. The GFS keeps the fledgling system weak and shunted to the south due to strong high pressure building in the Northern Plains. This prevents it from interacting with a northern stream ... The CMC/EC depicts a stronger system, and the northern stream shortwave is slow enough to support additional development... The North Country would be placed in the northern fringes of the low`s precipitation shield, and we would be looking at widespread light snow. Timing of shortwave interactions tends to be difficult for medium range forecasts. So this forecast will be refined going forward. If nothing else, the coldest air of the season will follow this system late next week, which should be helpful for snowmaking operations."

It’s a good sign when Tip is interested enough to even look at the ICON on a day 6 threat.

Yeah that looks more in line.... not some CAA graupel snow shower that drops 0.2” at BTV and melts within the hour of stopping. It’s still earlier than the others but a week between there and CON seems more like you’d think for “real” snow.

BTV is even a little earlier than I thought, but the mechanism for getting first measurable is likely much different between BTV and the rest.

Happy Birthday to the OG CT_Blizz.... seasons in seasons for the B-Day present.

If only Lake Champlain was another 25 miles wide and filled everything from the Dacks up to Mansfield.... upslope on crystal meth. You can then fill in eastern VT for your lake effect snow.

Yeah just take those heavier amounts by Alex and Tamarack, and extend that over to the heavy stuff by BTV and western VT....that gap between the two in NE VT is just radar not sampling it well.

Yeah man, this is a high end event. 3 main waterways up here have now exceeded Irene levels. I truly think that despite rainfall being 1-2” less than Irene (3-5” vs 4-6”), It came in a shorter period of time...and in August when Irene hit everything was green and growing. Some moisture had to be sucked up by vegetation, or into the root systems. This was 100% runoff with dormant vegetation. My FB feed is full of people trying to get out of certain towns.... sounds like a handful of towns are cut off from civilization just north of Stowe.

Agreed. The flooding event is coming sometime. Whether it’s a 50 year or 100 year event, it’s coming for your house at some point. Everyone on a hill saw washed out roads, like this in Stowe: But that’s not putting feet of water into your house. I’m with you, no thanks to this stuff. Richmond, VT.

Flooding shots from Johnson, VT...what an event.

That map doesn’t line up with CoCoRAHS in NE VT. If it’s radar estimated it’ll be low over there. NEK in VT was very wet even into Lyndonville.

With the recent flooding 3.5+ rainfall, since October 1st these are stations that have seen over 10” of water fall from the sky.

Good call on the flooding threat... hitting some 50-year recurrence interval discharge flows in NW NNE.

Tons of high water marks getting set up here. This one drains from Jay Peak area. I think NVT got it worse than in Irene based on the water flows.

This house is done.