powderfreak

The models indicate very little QPF in the area where IP/ZR would be. Makes sense, that’s a big H7 dry slot that’ll push through here into NEK of VT for a time tonight....usually under those dry slots you get some low level freezing drizzle or light pellets. The real deal is like 3-9am tomorrow morning. Snow growth gets real good with the CAA and probably a quick 3-6” swinging through. I’ve been thinking ~7” (6-8”) at home for this one, which seems about how it’s playing out.

Yeah they can quickly turn into a shit show below 0F...especially with wind that seems to reduce their effectiveness. You’ll get a nice ice later going on those pavers.

1.5-2” on my wife’s car when I got home. Seems dense, I’ll be curious what JSpin gets for ratio.

1.5-2” on my wife’s car so far...

It goes against anything a snow lover wants. Like someone paid a shit ton of money to make sure it NEVER snows there. You could get 3 feet out of the sky and nope, wet cobblestones.

Later I’ll get some jebwalk pics.

25F with steady light snow of 1-1.5sm visibility. A half inch on everything in town, started sticking to pavement and all surfaces right away.

29F at MVL with -SN. Feels like winter.

29F in town with -SN starting. Feels like mid-winter with temps in the 20s waiting for snow.

It’s the 18z run, the 00z wasn’t out an hour ago.

Pant-less week coming up in this neck of the woods, not bad for the 2nd week of November.

Forget the negativity.... Let's go Reggie!

That is curious going with an Advisory while forecasting 6-9” for Washington County... especially since warning criteria is 6”? Same up in the NE Kingdom.

Are you using Tapatalk? Ahh no, just iPhone normal web based.

Enjoy the snow. Side note, I can't see many of the images lately. They are broken links. Not sure if it's a Tapatalk problem or board issue Interesting. I see everything. Lava you are the only one where if I quote you, the message you quoted also shows up in my post.

Hopefully! I think the synoptic portion of the storm will be pretty uniform without a big elevation gradient...even between BTV and the mountain could be pretty similar with the mid-level lift. In fact I really like the Northern Champlain Valley in this....mid-level fronto sort of pivots there and northerly surface winds causing Champlain Valley convergence... surface convergence under mid-level lift, they may rip some good rates for a while as that rotates from BTV north.

Models have been dialed in for at least4 cycles now. Nothing different with that 12z suite. Widespread 6-12” northern half of Vermont.

Cold and dry must be the same emotion Wiz gets all summer when it’s 90/70 but capped so hard a nuke detonating wouldn’t even generate towering Cu.

Yeah I agree... the vast majority of humans would rather walk outside at 90/70 (as unpleasant as that is) than 10/-10. With that said, I do think the historical perspective helps with this early season cold. Just like if it's going to be hot in summer, it might as well have some historical meaning .

lol, you're a hard dude to figure out sometimes. In the summer you'll go all on about how folks don't enjoy the meteorological nuances of temperatures and whether it gets to 97F or 101F. Then you get the chance to talk about those same possible record cold early season temperatures and it's "yawn". BTW, I'm just busting your balls .

Let’s go Reggie...

72 Hour 00z GFS.... Reggie...

Spent the afternoon wandering around in the snow with the dog up at the mountain. With some settling of the snow in today's sunshine and temps near freezing, I found depths of ~3" at the base and ~6" above 2,500ft. Heading back to the car though, we were treated to a cool sight of the snowmaking plumes along the ridge being back-lit by the setting sun. The sun was illuminating each plume of snow, so even though those trails are out of view you can tell they've got the guns fired up.

Yeah it is all relative. No one wants to hear me complain about mixing with sleet, ha. I'm not saying that to be a debbie though, just merely discussing the forecast possibilities up here... and we saw sort of the same trend with the system before this one. Some pretty far south solutions on some models at the day 4-6 time frame, only to swing back north in the day 2-3 time frame. It did look like all the 18z models were more amped/warmer/wetter than the 12z suite. We will net gain regardless unless this gets really jacked up to a cutter.

That 18z Euro is way amped. Thats mixed precip from here to Alex to Sunday River. That’s been my fear, that like the last event it trends a tick warmer as it approaches.