powderfreak

I finally tracked down that link Dendy gave out a couple weeks ago. Looks like the GFS has a cold bias at all levels. Here’s the 1000mb level...what the hell is up with the CMC/GGEM too, lol.

Doesn’t it have a big cool bias now? At least that’s word on the streets here.

MVL hasn’t gotten out of the teens today, that’s insane. BTV’s record low max of 28F (over 100 years ago in 1916) is getting crushed with 22F being the high so far. Somewhere down the line, somebody will wonder about the November 2019 cold of yore.... “holy shit did that hot desert of BTV really only see a max of 22F on Nov 13th!?”

The equivalent of like 90/65 in April... breath it in.

This is obscene cold. 11:20am at MVL... 10F with wind chill of -7F. Normal low temperature for MVL today is 28F....and here it is 10F approaching noon.

So in the last 18 years, 30% of the time today the high was in the 60s. That doesn’t strike me as something that happens in a “cold winter month” as some like to call November.

Normal is the average. If your average is 53F, one year it could be 65F and the next it’s 41F. It’s still supposed to be relatively mild right now though. This is an extreme air mass...the warm equivalent would be highs of like 70-80F.

BTV had a high of 26F yesterday, setting the record low max and the record for earliest in the season. BTV had a low of 9F this morning, record low and coldest temperature for this early in the season. What’s most impressive to me is how warm BTV runs and they have the climate records back to 1800s....so for that station to set coldest/earliest records means the air mass is legit.

8F. Snow packed roads like January where road salt does nothing at these temps. Looks like the arctic with blowing snow behind every vehicle.

Down into the low-10s around here... we've been lucky. The last couple of November deep freezes have come with/after solid snowfall. Having that snow cover seems to help in these early season climo departures.

Love a good multiple hour squall... This was a quick 2" in 2 hours before I left and it was still dumping. Back at home, my wife's car with just under a half a foot on it.

That seems like your hope every winter at least. I'm with you on hoping winter follows the solar cycle a bit more (ie, deep winter on these dark days, but getting nicer when its light out until 7:30pm in March). It is hard to remember it's only the 2nd week of November. It gets dark so damn that it seems like it should be mid-winter.

Lol I’m gonna nail my numbers again if this keeps up. Storm total of 6-8” now.... I need another squall to get to my 8-12”.

It has been ripping lately. 2” past 2 hours in the base area. Just nuking dendrites. Will have some parking lot photos later, don’t worry.

But you have to melt that down to get the LE.

Yeah it’s cold. Been upper teens all day here at 1,500ft. I see MVL has snuck up into the low 20s....it’s only 5F colder at 1pm than our normal minimum temp this time of year! lol. Everyone is going to think it’s an Indian Summer if we warm back up to normal! Highs in the 40s are normal right now, these temps are the cold equivalent of a high of 65-70F right now up here.

Fascinating little event. Snow totals are underwhelming (failed warning criteria) but the QPF was spot on. Even the Northern Champlain Valley I was sure was a lock for 10”....but they’ve got a couple reports of 7-8” on ~1.00 water even up there. That mid level warmth must’ve led to some widespread terrible snow growth, as even the places that saw no sleet still looked to have seen 7-8:1 ratios. And those of us who saw some sleet mixture at times saw as low as 5-6:1 ratios. Though I will say I’d rather bust low of snow totals but get the frozen QPF on the ground, rather than hitting the snow totals but busting on QPF because of extreme snow growth. We’ll have plenty of time for fluff...early season is for high density snows.

You had 2”. Its the highest depth... makes no difference if you went to sleet, or the temp went to 60F and it melted in minutes, lol....if you had 2” of snow at some point, that’s your snow total. Inevitably it’s all going to melt anyway at some point...whether that 2” is there for 3 months or only an hour doesn’t matter.

As posted in the NNE thread... model QPF was spot on with ~0.80” of frozen but only 5” of accumulation. Flakes were small last night and was even getting sleet/graupel/dippin dots for a good portion of the overnight. Either way, this ain’t no fluff....5” of really dense stuff that’s like shoveling sand.

About 5” of very dense snow at the mountain. Probably similar 6-7:1 ratios. Good water amount for a base layer.

The American dream. What a world we live in. Just like you’d assume you can’t lose a lawsuit because someone ordered hot coffee that ended up being too hot and burnt them.

Well that’s some really dense snow. About 4.5” that feels like cement. I see most CoCoRAHS are running like 5-6:1 ratio. The local guy had 0.78” water. No fluff here, sleet and some ZR to make it thick, ha.

Just need frozen QPF in all honesty, ha. 3" or so here and coming down steadily...I think we can get 3-6" more for a 6-9" total. Nice start to the season for sure. The skiers are happy. Lower ratio stuff for now, dense.

Oh I think we see sleet, at least mix in, as that mid level warming and dry slot moves north. The ending is where we need to make hay, but any frozen QPF is good stuff...I’d rather see sleet than just nothing at all if the H7 dry slot gets here.

It just started to really rip out there...very pulse-like but this is the biggest one so far.