powderfreak

HRRR-X for 36 hours wasn’t biting. Run to run swings have been insane.

It is incredibly marginal temps...the 850mb maps look like Swiss cheese with the 0C isotherm. Any mid level band going nuts though will be pumping paste. I could see pockets of mixed north and south of the best mid-level lift.

I like when you whisper “mid levels”... my weenie is telling me that the last several events up here have busted a bit because everything ended up further NW than expected (mixed precip and QPF). I’ll have whatever the 3km models are having... the NAM and Canadian version here are apeshit.

Sounds like fun. The anticipated deep isothermal profiles near 0C and strong UVV are concerning for impactful low snow-to-liquid ratios, and generally showing 8:1 or so in our snowfall calculations. This will result in snow adhering strongly to trees and powerlines, and possible scattered power outages across central VT Sunday into Sunday evening.

The NAM family at 18z think the globals are out to lunch. Anything seems to be on the table.

LOL. This is insane back and forth model runs for a 48 hour forecast. Sucked back in a bit.

Giggity. 18z RGEM is nice and jacked up. Destroys Alex and Diane.

I just came in to post that we just had a nice flare up and period of decent snow dusting us up in the last hour.

Yeah it depends on where she lives. Alex at 1,500ft in Bretton Woods would be saved relatively on SE flow as he's tucked in closer to the terrain.... but get a few miles further out and it probably is a very sharp gradient. Similar to our upslope.

Yeah extremely slick out there.

Ha, the old post it looks good and the next run comes out with the opposite.

Intriguing Day 3 threat. 12z guidance so far looks decent for NNE snows.

That's awesome. I love those differences, even when I'm on the lower end of that, ha. I love how narrow the difference in appeal can be in elevation snow. That's a big difference in vibe there...from gray/wet to white/bright.

Our highest temperature in the past 13 days has been 41F....the only day in the 40s. Four days have seen single digits. If that's how it is at 700ft.... easy to imagine 1,500+ feet in NE VT/NNH/WME seeing full ice over, if they've been below freezing for so long and also seeing lows below zero a couple times. Hell most water around here is frozen solid but that's much smaller yard ponds and wetlands. Crazy to think about... 2 weeks in November when average highs are in the 45-48F range, we have only hit 40F or higher once during that time...and I don't even think it was on an hourly report, it was a between hour high temp lol.

It has been obscene cold relative to normal. Today was our 15th day in a row of below normal temperatures and the monthly departure sits at -9.1. I mean this is Oxen-Of-Yore type stuff relative to normal. It felt straight warm when the 24 hour was 34/30 with no diurnal change... that that's below normal with -9F below the average maximum temp!

You know how to talk dirty to NNE.

Riveting light snow. Actually had more at home than this tenth or two at the ski area.

Need more snow in this thread... Austria after their recent 6-foot storm:

It’s not mine...a patrollers. It was posted to SkiTheEast group. Not my place to say, just sharing it here.

He must think blue means above normal heights?

They better check the Stake depth while they are up there! Impressive that the tower was able to burn in today’s moisture. Ski Patrol called it in while shoveling the Octagon Deck...here’s one of their photos:

Tomorrow definitely has a chance of 1-3” type deal.

Went over to pounding wet snow at the mountain. Car was all glazed up this morning. 30F ZR in town and 35-40F all night at the summits with plain rain. Now snow at all elevations.

ALB with 0.79”/6hrs and finishing with 1/2sm snow. Looks like they reported most precip types ha.

And an even -10.0F below normal in temps. What a first half of the month there.