powderfreak

I mean that’s how the forum works though.... I wouldn’t expect Runaway to say “It looks great” and assume he’s talking about Stowe, VT. Likewise if Jerry is getting stoked it’s probably not because a run blitzed Albany.

This was the storm total on 18z run... but since it started at 1pm it likely included most of the front end precip too. These maps are way too coarse though for this close in. EPS at this time frame seems to lose a bit of its luster when trying to find specific details.

I think it’s a good look for you guys right on the coast. Often times that mid-level banding ends up a bit further west than expected anyway.

I honestly haven’t a f*cking clue. Literally you could find model guidance that would support any outcome at this point. I think it’ll be a little hit or miss but banding is going to set up somewhere. I do think those global model snow maps of huge areas of big totals will be more localized but I think everyone just has to wait and see where mid-level banding sets up. You could be ripping for 6+ hours straight while a county to the east or west is just seeing -SN. I certainly think a huge CCB will never be off the table. Even if models are east, I feel like we often see all of Eastern New England covered in this huge snow shield just when we finally accept it won’t happen.

The Herpes Canadian version of the 3km NAM has an awesome firehose mid-level band aimed at you.

Yeah will be tough to get a foot in the first couple days of Dec. We should run all these models every hour like the HRRR, we’d all get solutions we love and hate.

ALB FTW

About 1” in last hour where I am in South Burlington. 1.5” total so far.

Surprisingly steady snow up this way on I-89.... interstate snow covered.

Albany getting crushed. Back to back hours of 2”/hr. 5” in 3 hours. KALB 012151Z 03005KT 1/4SM R01/6000VP6000FT +SN FZFG VV010 M05/M08 A2986 RMK AO2 SLP115 SNINCR 2/5 P0011 T10501078 KALB 012051Z 03003KT 1/4SM R01/2400V2800FT +SN FZFG VV007 M05/M08 A2986 RMK AO2 SLP114 SNINCR 2/3 P0013 60024 T10501078 56036

You’re putting down snow that you won’t see again until like May 1st lol. I love your area with prolonged easterly upslope into those 2-3kft terrain.

Agreed. That’s how this goes 18”+ for someone. I like your SW counties of the forecast area into NE MA as an overlap of both parts of the storm.

Wish I was back at my parents...keep the updates coming from Bethlehem.

RD 2 on the RGEM just destroys SNH through eastern Mass. Really good shot down into the Philly area too.

Reggie lining up for round two... Not unlike the NAM with mixed precip.

If you can’t use meso-models now, when do you? It’s an honest question. At some point you have to put the coarser guidance to bed.

Put the EPS away at this point.

Yep and as we expected it has cooled the mid levels off a bit. A nice meet in the middle solution. But we are getting to the point where folks will start bashing any and all model that isn’t 100% crush job . They just don’t need that negativity.

3km NAM storm total. RT 2 has been the spot for days and days. Amazing to see that consistency. Right where the highest U-wind anomalies are.

ALB with 1/4 mile vis and 1” last hour on the METAR.

This little patch of sleet just moved through.

Dual Pol shows your sleet well. 3km NAM has a warm layer on the downslope west of the Berkshire crest. It shows just how marginal this is in the midlevels.

3km is way north with WAA... even getting it into here.

I think most of the issues why people think it’s unstable is it runs every damn hour. If you ran the NAM or GFS every hour all day long you’d get some weird solutions from time to time, heck it happens even when run 4 times a day. I just think if you run any model out there right now every hour it’s going to seem to swing back and forth. I mainly look at the 4 primary runs a day and it’s no more unstable than any other model.

Yeah gotta use the 6z/12z/18z/0z runs and ignore the others. Those are the extended version. I mean the normal models are all over the place too. Not surprising something sensitive and run every hour will be different. I think it’ll nail the WAA and SWFE stuff.