powderfreak

Not freezing your ass off on the slopes is what it’s good for. I actually like this if it’s not snowing. Perfect for taking the dog on her hour loop though the woods too. My desire for cold without snow has decreased a lot in recent years for whatever reason.

That sounds pretty warm for mid-winter...

In all honesty, the EPS has a very healthy 1-1.5" of QPF frozen along RT 2 area between snow and then ice in the Thurs/Fri time frame.

The QPF maps show that as well.... a much more even distribution of snow.

It seems early, even for you. At that rate you’ll be installing on March 1st. But I guess it’s sort of like a very long version of not being able to enjoy a snowstorm if you already know a cutter is coming 4 days later. Can’t enjoy snow in Feb/March because you know April is coming.

That GFS run should make more folks feel better. By tomorrow it’ll be NYC to BOS and participation trophies for all.

That’s amazing, haha. We all know what you mean too. Enjoying modeled storms sometimes seems better than enjoying the systems themselves for some folks.

Welp, all downhill from there. I’ll be pissed if I don’t get 20+ inches in the next 6 days. I can’t imagine what this forum would be like if the GFS just painted that axis through SNE.

I mean the overall look is still pretty similar with several waves rippling along the baroclinic zone, with the last one being the stronger system. It just depends where that boundary is and seems to be waffling around a bit. Cutter to suppression still seems all on the table.

Unreadable. Emotions swinging from high to low every single model run these days. Folks are losing it.

December you enjoyed, no?

Yeah it's solidly much more impressive than Mansfield. That extra 1000ft is what, 20% more height and being further north in latitude the tree-line is lower. Add in much more proximity to the Canadian Maritime climate than any other New England mountains, with tons of wind. That harsh landscape is what really makes the vibe there.

I’ve never seen it but from the photos, I’d agree. Looks relatively flat around it for great, impressive vistas. Looks like something out of Montana.

That to me is a very New England thing, even more SNE than anything. I think of Woodstock, CT when I think of rock walls. They border like every property.

Nice day 5-6 event there... 48-hr snow

It’s crazy that January was as ridiculously warm as November was cold. Like -6.5 and +7 for the two months up here. Mother Nature loves her averages. At least in January we can absorb that and still see average max temps below freezing (just barely)...but it’s been a lot of highs in the 25-35F range all month it seems...which is real warm for interior N.VT in January.

We always want it.

Optimism hasn’t been working, I think you are on the right track. Gotta try everything. Expect zero winter rest of the way and get pleasantly surprised.

I thought of you as soon as seeing the Euro. Hope that works out for you guys and someone can grab an inch or two to brighten up the landscape.

Yeah they are obnoxious when challenged... but then when an arctic outbreak happens in early February that same person will be like “Yes see, I missed the arctic outbreak and huge snowstorm by a week or two, but back in October I called for a huge disruptive February snowstorm followed by an arctic outbreak!” I feel like I could randomly make things up in 3-week blocks throughout the winter and be right some of the time and then pound chest.

I can never understand how long range seasonal forecasters are so cocky. Even amateurs with seasonal forecasts can come off at times as overly pushy to make you believe they were correct. But maybe you need to do that to try and prove to folks part of what you did was right?

Winter scene through the lens today... below normal snow winter, but certainly could be worse. Made up some ground recently. Hopefully everyone can get some snow accums in the next 7-10 days of short waves.

Agreed. I bet it's closer to ORH than BTV area for climo, IMO. He's NNE latitude but in that SW to NE coastal swath. I mean, it's similar to here too in that we get mountain snowfall, just further north than the mountains further south. On the basic level, snowfall increases as you head north in latitude in the northeast. Similar climate but further north, you're going to do a bit better with a longer length of snow season on average.

What is bolded there is definitely true. I don't agree with the good pattern stuff because I think what most of New England thinks as a good pattern will redeem higher results in the lower average snowfall areas. Our snowfall can be more steady in all patterns, IMO. Of course we have our times when all of New England is raking and we rake really high too, but it's all relative to average in my mind. Average sets expectations. In a below normal satisfaction winter, we'll certainly seem to do much better. Crappy winters are usually warmer or more cutter-ish, but even at +7 this month, our average highs were below freezing. Warmer winters also have the baroclinic zone closer to us, more activity, etc. It's been a below average winter up here, but we've had a winter with consistent snow cover and some snowy weeks.

I think it would depend on the run... do you only take 1 run and 7 day totals or do you do a running blend with 4 runs per day? I do think the ensemble snow maps are pretty solid on the whole for 7-day chunks...but they don’t have those wild swings of the Ops and are essentially an ensemble QPF map.