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powderfreak

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Everything posted by powderfreak

  1. powderfreak
    I am so confused by what James is posting, ha.
  2. powderfreak
    Started looking like winter after 2.5" of dense snow this morning... about half fell before 6am and half between 6-9am. It was heavy dense snow, almost sand-like with mixed precipitation mixed in. Made a huge difference in ski conditions....had to be a good shot of liquid, maybe 0.25-0.3" as I bet it was under 10:1 ratios.
  3. powderfreak
    Been a rough winter for the models. Euro snow... I’d take near half inch of QPF and run.
  4. powderfreak
    The snow growth looks pretty darn good... hits the mid level lift on the front side, then when the CAA kicks in it lowers the DGZ towards the lowest 5,000ft of the atmosphere where the orographic lift starts.
  5. powderfreak
    I’d be curious too.... some of the fluffiest snow I’ve seen on the mountain can be associated with just ripping NW gales. Can get 40:1 ratios with no resistance at all on 30-40kt winds. I’ve always thought those flakes don’t seem to “crash and fracture” as much for whatever reason, maybe because they have such low water in them to begin with? A heavier dendrite in a nor’easter might fracture and compact?
  6. powderfreak
    Low end Winter Storm Watches up for the upslope zones.
  7. powderfreak
    Euro and GGEM beefed it up a bit overnight.
  8. powderfreak
    Unrealistic expectations at long lead times causes most of it. Over abundance of model data adds to it. And honestly if all the modeled snowstorms hit as depicted at random day 5-9 intervals we all probably average 250” a season. You are in NH right? Should be fine there.
  9. powderfreak
    Yeah agreed, just busting your balls.
  10. powderfreak
    You seemed excited for 1-3” in that little critter thread!
  11. powderfreak
    18z GFS continues with it's theme of hammering the NW flow terrain with QPF. Odd to see it that robust with two meager lows moving through without a big closed cyclonic flow or something.
  12. powderfreak
    Looks like we may have a repeat on Tuesday night or Wednesday morning... light QPF progged and still very little saturation in the snow growth zone. Today we got a whitening of what I can only describe as the snow equivalent of drizzle. It was the smallest needle flakes you'll ever see, just like a snow mist.
  13. powderfreak
    Yeah only had 0.12" at MVL vs. 0.26" on the 12km. Same down your way where the 3km had 0.06" vs. 0.13" for LEW. I'm more inclined to believe those lesser amounts and it looks similar to today with either -SN or -FZDZ with pretty shitty saturation in the snow growth zone. Can always toss those 3km mountain QPFs as it's just the model going apeshit with what is really just rime ice...its like wherever the cloud level interacts with the terrain it prints obscene QPF in error.
  14. powderfreak
    Usually not unless its a meso-scale upslope snow where the ratios are often higher anyway. Most synoptic snow though has those Kuchie maps wayyyyy too high.
  15. powderfreak
    Yeah 3km is like 50% of what the 12km NAM showed on Tuesday Night/Wednesday morning.... both here and there.
  16. powderfreak
    Ahhh I was looking at the 12km NAM. It looks like it even has 0.18-0.20" in the GYX/PWM area prior to Thursday's event. I think the QPF might be too high on that earlier event on Tuesday night.
  17. powderfreak
    It had a decent 0.1-0.25" over areas of GYX's area. Maybe not your house per se but there's some earlier QPF there, even 0.30" for the Whites Tuesday night. It had 0.17" at IZG, 0.18" to 0.20" PWM, etc. I was just saying you can take a tenth or two off it for earlier. No big deal.
  18. powderfreak
    Not a bad look. Some of this though is from Tuesday night too... maybe 0.1-0.25".
  19. powderfreak
    EPS mean...
  20. powderfreak
    This discussion reminded me of a photo I found of the old BTV air field... no wonder the climate there was so much colder 50-100 years ago lol. There’s nothing around it. Now it’s completely build out urban/suburban sprawl.
  21. powderfreak
    The Reverend “Rev Kev”motoring on through.. Its day 5... could rain to Maine or snow in NYC at this lead time.
  22. powderfreak
    Yeah I don't want to be that guy but honestly the EURO doesn't seem to be as much "on it's own" as some seem to make it seem. Even that ICON was pretty darn warm for Saturday and wouldn't bring much snow south of the Pike (but big mixed bag probably). EURO looked very similar to the 12z GGEM. The GFS actually looks a bit like the outlier right now. But all of them are perfectly within reason for this lead time.
  23. powderfreak
    Hard to call that an outlier or any model an outlier at that lead time. The GGEM was pretty warm too with a primary over Lake Ontario and secondary over BOS... but honestly these solutions aren't that much different at Day 5 range (GFS/ECM/GGEM). Certainly well within the range of noise at that lead time except they do have big sensible differences for some folks. Look at it as we are just happy there's still a winter event showing up even if its a front ender followed by mix.
  24. powderfreak
    Yeah looked like the GFS had it more in downeast Maine than your area. I'll take both GFS and EURO, don't care, haha. I do love that ECM track from RUT to PWM with some decent West to East fronto forcing north of that low.
  25. powderfreak
    Now that's a little critter that bites right there. Good swath of warning snows from BTV to GYX.
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