powderfreak

Gave me 0” and did pretty well when the others were crushing. Its all personal opinion ha. It was the first in multiple events to show red flags.

It’s been spot on up here this year.

Yeah that thing is still in NY there.

One would hope 12-24” would survive a week in December, no?

You have to get creative but it’s there. Heres March 2001 archive: https://list.uvm.edu/cgi-bin/wa?A1=ind0103A&L=SKIVT-L Some amazing AFDs saved in there. I started posting there right around that time in 2001. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 330 AM EST TUE MAR 6 2001 REMARKABLE STM CONTS TO ROTATE BANDS OF HVY SNW WWD ACRS VT/NE NY. WV/IR LOOP SHWS DEEP MSTR AND COLD TOPS ROTATING WWD ACRS FA IN DEEP ELY FLOW. KCXX VAD SHWS ELY FLOW UP TO 28K FT! GNLY LOOKING AT 8-14" ST LAW VLY...1-2 FT ADRNDCKS...14-28" CHMPLN VLY AND CNTRL VT...10-20" NE VT...AND 20-36" S VT. BTV AT 17.5" AS OF 3 AM AND WL MAKE A RUN AT 2 FT WHICH WUD MAKE IT THE 3RD GREATEST SNW STORM ON RECORD. Definitely not this storm lol.

Yeah it was a 2-3 footer straight into Canada for the mountains though. Top 10 storm for BTV I think? That one was much of a beast over a larger area.

Objection to that, flag tossed. Don’t put this suppressed storm on par with that beast in 2001 lol.

That Euro run is incredible for you fools. I mean just give up the hobby after that and start installing the A/C units...

I have never seen a Winter Weather Advisory in the northeast with a statement like this. They issue these WWA for 10 minutes of light freezing drizzle.... and for 8-13" of snow too? Eastern Hampshire MA-Eastern Hampden MA-Southern Worcester MA- Including the cities of Amherst, Northampton, Springfield, Milford, and Worcester 1053 AM EST Sun Dec 1 2019 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of 8 to 13 inches and ice accumulations up to one tenth of an inch.

7F up here. It was crisp letting the dog out for the last time tonight a few minutes ago.

That is nuts in Eastern NY and around ALB County. Everything just crushes there.

I don't envy the pro mets down there and especially the on-air folks who have to stand in front of the cameras with a forecast. Boom or bust potential is very high in CT in general.

Yeah any map that says "includes sleet" as 10:1 ratio snow.... might not be the best choice when mixed precipitation is involved.

What a run there... the NAM has you with like 37-40F pouring rain after a little SN/IP for the first part. Then round two is a foot of wind-driven paste.

It is amazing that the best stuff is still out at 48+ hours! This thing has been tracked for so damn long.

00z NAM snow map through 10am Monday before Round 2. Just absolutely pounding the ALB area and NY state thruway.

Well climo for a -4 SD 850mb U-Wind Anomaly storm. We've seen this before, it helps make educated guesses? Go with climo when you have a big closed low going underneath....not some random monthly snow climo .

NAM warm layers still lurking. Between 850mb and 700mb its like pockets of warmth floating north. Check out that pocket in upstate NY with like +3C and just absolutely pounding sleet in the western/southern Adirondacks.

I like the climo route....going to be some incredible piling up of air as it comes ashore with increased friction due to land...setting up some awesome convergence there north and south of BOS. I think you guys along the coast get a shit ton of QPF out of this.

That’s what makes me think the more southerly suppressed route is the way to go. It was frigid today. We never got out of the teens for temps, even valleys. That has suppression written all over it when it’s that cold leading up to the event. I can’t believe even ORH had a high of 33F....that’s like t-shirt weather. So warm down there. And warmth brings QPF.

These big occluded systems always have a few wild cards coming.

It had a pocket of 0C to -1C but on the whole it was probably 2C cooler at H7. Snow growth looks classic SWFE dense stuff but that 2C will make a big difference, lol.

That cooked us twice up here so far this season with a lot more mixed precip than expected in November. Be interesting to see what the HRRR-X has.... as unstable as that thing is if those thermals go with the 3km NAM once inside 36 hours its something to take seriously.

Most likely. Was just shocked to see how warm the mid-levels were with that heavy WAA precip.