powderfreak

Still shoveling a few Euro snowstorms this season... can’t trust any of them I say!

Nice wintry vibes! Only a half inch new here at home. Crazy.

Bust it seems in VT when these are the higher totals reported.

CC looks to have the mix line right over DIT’s head.

Hoping this works for you dude. 2” of paste on the branches will look like w wonderland.

Light snow has started up here. HRRR catching on to the mid-level magic band in VT that seems to be developing.

Pretty size-able bust all around. I don’t know if anyone is doing 4-6+ after models had a widespread chance of that.

Radar looks about right, they are mixed rain/snow at the airport. Probably white rain catpaws. METAR KPHL 241654Z 29013G23KT 7SM -RASN Reading, PA nearby flipped to 2 mile -SN in that tail end but has tapered off now. KRDG 241554Z 28013KT 2SM -SN

Radar p-type looks to show that as well.

Ha, see it’s worked well for me up here. I’m going to start calling it Doctor No. Each event has underperformed up here from 24-30 hours out and it’s always the HRRR that breaks the bad news. I cant get excited until I see that thing go nuts. Thats why I posted it yesterday and it’s been spot on up here lol

It was spot on all day yesterday on the extended runs with precip slipping southeast significantly. It honestly it was the first model to pull the rug out successfully and consecutively.

Yeah those snowfall probs were garbage with such a marginal column.

Anyone know how Logan11 made out over by ALB?

Yeah the Euro up here in like 24 hours, went from 0.15” QPF jacked up to a max of 1.15” at MVL and then is now back to 0.22”. Thats a massive swing within 36 hours of an event. Just be happy this wasn’t done to SNE...a storm that looked like a whiff at 48 hours out, then a 8-12” bomb at 30 hours out, back to 1-3” by 12-18 hours out. And not just one model but all of them. Rollarcoaster ride. Can’t talk definitively until 12 hour lead time.

Models have been bad lately lol. Can’t trust anything.

Craziest part is 36-48 hours ago it looked like this...only for two runs did every model go crazy inland. Like they ate some bad information at initialization. See that’s why we stay conservative most of the time. The east tick is always there. I had 1-3” up here so should be ok for an inch. The bigger bust even might be the northern Whites by Diane/Alex into the western Maine mtns...they were all like 12-18” on the models for longer than we were in it. 6z EURO had like under 1/2” of QPF in those areas.

NWS BTV posted these on social this evening.... sunny clear day with some cirrus moving in late ahead of the system. The Vermont side of the lake has quite the view towards the Adirondack high country.

From a few storms we’ve had to track so far, my biggest concern is the lack of consistency and it seems like if 1 models shift, they all do. I feel like we used to see more stepwise shifts vs windshield wiper flips back and forth. And the more interesting part to me is that all the models seem to be ingesting the same data that is causing some big swings. Like all the sudden at 18z the models yesterday went apeshit amped up...but it’s not like just the NAM did it or something. They all did and the Euro was probably the worst of them all shoving 1-2” QPF to Canada. So they initialized something that made them go nuts for a couple runs. Then 12 hours later initialized something that made them go “oh whoops, back to the starting point.” Going to be a long winter of models, ha. I feel like they all just follow each other around, when in the past it would be a bigger spread but those models would be more consistent in their respective camps....if that makes sense. Like the Euro or GFS or NAM would disagree in a big way and hold that position for several runs. Now they all flip back and forth with whatever data they initialize with.

Not that impressed to be honest, ha. The last 24 hours of Euro runs have ranged from around 0.2” to 1.15” at MVL. The lack of consistency is concerning.

18z NAM says thanks for playing try again next time.

18z HRRR even further SE, might get no measurable up this way. Gonna be a fun winter on the forum when every storm has huge changes inside of 48 hours. Might be good trends for the ORH hills.

Just like that in April doesn’t scream time to install?

Yeah I’m going with even less than that. Maybe 1-3”/2-4”. I do think the precip shield tightens up a bit. Wouldnt complain about 2-3” refresh though.

Yeah I don’t like all the Swiss cheese looking thermal layers... it’s so marginal that just about any p-type seems possible if the models are off in an area by 0.5C even. Its very similar to that event we thought we were slam dunk for 8-12” and got the QPF but only had 4-6” on 1.0” water... just a frozen dense white substance of very small flake snow and sleet with some ZR for good measure. I could see something similar where there’s a good frozen QPF bomb but ratios are total garbage.

I’ve found it to be pretty decent in this early season mayhem. But anyway, definite SE tick in precip across the 12z suite so far. Very narrow area of heavy snows most likely.