powderfreak

Unrealistic expectations at long lead times causes most of it. Over abundance of model data adds to it. And honestly if all the modeled snowstorms hit as depicted at random day 5-9 intervals we all probably average 250” a season. You are in NH right? Should be fine there.

Yeah agreed, just busting your balls.

You seemed excited for 1-3” in that little critter thread!

Looks like we may have a repeat on Tuesday night or Wednesday morning... light QPF progged and still very little saturation in the snow growth zone. Today we got a whitening of what I can only describe as the snow equivalent of drizzle. It was the smallest needle flakes you'll ever see, just like a snow mist.

Usually not unless its a meso-scale upslope snow where the ratios are often higher anyway. Most synoptic snow though has those Kuchie maps wayyyyy too high.

This discussion reminded me of a photo I found of the old BTV air field... no wonder the climate there was so much colder 50-100 years ago lol. There’s nothing around it. Now it’s completely build out urban/suburban sprawl.

The Reverend “Rev Kev”motoring on through.. Its day 5... could rain to Maine or snow in NYC at this lead time.

Yeah I don't want to be that guy but honestly the EURO doesn't seem to be as much "on it's own" as some seem to make it seem. Even that ICON was pretty darn warm for Saturday and wouldn't bring much snow south of the Pike (but big mixed bag probably). EURO looked very similar to the 12z GGEM. The GFS actually looks a bit like the outlier right now. But all of them are perfectly within reason for this lead time.

Hard to call that an outlier or any model an outlier at that lead time. The GGEM was pretty warm too with a primary over Lake Ontario and secondary over BOS... but honestly these solutions aren't that much different at Day 5 range (GFS/ECM/GGEM). Certainly well within the range of noise at that lead time except they do have big sensible differences for some folks. Look at it as we are just happy there's still a winter event showing up even if its a front ender followed by mix.

We had some snow reporting issues last winter that got fixed the 2nd week of January... I've got 96" for monthly snowfall last January. Smuggs had 127". My gut said we under-reported (ie missed) some inches in the first week of January but got it sorted out and Andre and I were on the run again. That was a big month. Good old Northern Greens style. Hard to run a January better than 100" of snowfall along with 100" snow depth to enjoy it on. We had like 50" on the ground in the base area later in January there, ha.

Yeah got around 0.9” on the high snow board. At least whitened things up a bit.

Ha BTV’s had 90% chance of snow Sat/Sun since each period entered the picture over the weekend.

That was a much better run for your neck of the woods. Spreads the love out for those SE.

This would be nice to get things started. Euro gone wild... but it’s done it a bunch this winter in this time frame of day 4.

That’s fairly substantial. Big time warmth.

This was quite the thaw. Pretty high end but not quite to levels like in Jan 2008 and or Jan 96. I think the summits saw the worst of it. The valleys drained low level cold in last night near freezing...but up at 3000ft+ it was 45-50F all last night with 1-1.5” rainfall across the Spine here. The Mansfield Stake is down to 18” of pack. It has the slickness of pond ice and the durability of a concrete foundation. Last year we hit 100” of depth in January for comparison.

What’s better than one snowfall map? An average of 51 snowfall maps . Its like asking why would anyone bother with ensemble mean QPF? That’s all that is, a QPF map with the decimal point moved.

I’d take 5” in 12 hours right now after the last 48 hours.

Not bad!

Yeah anything with natural snow cover is done for a bit. There will be a very firm base layer but so much rain last nigh created all sorts of holes and blow outs as the Mtn drained. Big deep runnels through the existing snowpack type stuff. I figure we’ll need a dense foot to really have a shot at getting those trails skiable.

Definitely seems to be the tenor of this winter so far. Enjoy the snow when you have it and then watch it get beaten back. Everytime there’s some winter momentum building, Nature plays the “hold my beer” game lol.

I mean, I’d rather just a full reset at this point. Gonna need crampons to walk the dog when this really freezes. Its just an ugly looking 0-3” out there.

It was crazy watching the temp drop everywhere last night except the summits. Mansfield and Lincoln Peak were still 50F when BTV was 31F and ZR. Would’ve been a cool graphic to show a 3-D advection of the cold while the mountains stuck out like rocks above water.

You are closer to the SFC cold drain coming down would be my guess.

Snowing out. Winter’s moving back in. Man am I jealous of 70F right now.