powderfreak
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Everything posted by powderfreak
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Amen!
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Light sleet up here. Freshly groomed dog path next to my house, wintry appeal. We’ll see what tomorrow brings.
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I usually love convection. Bump that nor'easter westward all day long. I still think we have a fun period of snow tomorrow.
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There's a ton of convection in the deep south. Always seems to play with these big southern lows.
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Tucky tucky. The HRRR tracks the low over SLK lol.
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I agree... I think this event was tougher for a narrow range with the two-part event. Now that part 1 is mostly done, time to narrow it up. We are seeing a mix of -SN/-IP/-ZR that seems to be changing from minute to minute.... but the -SN is clearly losing the battle as it's intervals are getting further and fewer between the IP/ZR misty stuff.
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8-9" at home and 11.00-11.75" at 1,500ft. My gut has always been around a foot for the mtn.
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Up to 3-4” range... need to grab 8” tomorrow. I forecasted 8-16” on here and 7-14” on FB so I think that’ll nail it. Bush league to run with the heaviest guidance all the time .
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Driving generally unplowed roads with 2-3" on it is a lot of fun.
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In Reggie we trust, lol. I think the gradient is northern Champlain Valley but we can hope for the messenger shuffle.
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About 2.5" so far at 6am. Steady snow falling.
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A true melt
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You have to leave your options open. Always leave room for the sleet.
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Yeah I’ve been saying all along I just want a boat load of frozen QPF. It all ends up the same in the end. Need to bolster the pack and adding a lot of SWE is one way to do it.
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This still could bust pretty good if the sleet is further NW... maybe convection pumps the heights a bit and the wave amps up? The 18z HRRR, RGEM, and even GFS were a tick warmer in the mid levels again...putting best snows north of here. There will be a tight NW to SE gradient somewhere along that mid-level freezing line.
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Hopefully! You know the drill though, gotta think of all scenarios. The 18z GFS had 0.5” QPF as mixed and 1.5” as snow... total of 2.0” QPF. So we could see a good mixed period for sure.
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Yeah that’s the time to make hay. I think in a general sense it’s 2-4” tomorrow morning, then 12 hours of light mixed precip, followed by 6-12” on Friday....mainly in like 6 hours. Call it 8-16” with some mix sandwiched in.
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Oh we definitely ping. Freezing drizzle and ZR too. It’s real dry in the snow growth zone tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow night.... I could see .25-.5” QPF as mix here on the edge of the mid level dry slot. I bet it mixes to Canada in light returns. I think we get 12 hours of mixed, pellets, grains, ZR, etc between the better periods of lift. The craziest part is even taking that out the models have another 1-1.5” QPF.
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...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM THURSDAY TO 10 PM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow and mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of 10 to 18 inches and ice accumulations of up to one tenth of an inch possible.
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We need more posters like yourself, ha. You are in Charlotte, right? The Champlain Valley looks to take a crosshair on this one too. Northerly surface drain leading to Champlain Valley Convergence under the mid-level lift could be fun.
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Yeah we get plenty of snowfall, but 12"+ events are much more common in SNE. I've been hoping for double digits, so anything 10" or greater in this will more than satisfy that itch. I could still see more mixing than expected or lower ratios bringing 8" of the densest white material ever... but I just like a nice frozen QPF bomb. We don't do those frozen heavy precip events like SNE does.
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I keep waiting for the other shoe to drop but this keeps trending wetter and wetter. Pretty much all the models from the GFS/GGEM/ICON/EURO have 1.75” or more QPF frozen. GFS and GGEM are 2”+. Maybe it does go 12-18”.
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This is what you dream about. Each run as you get closer the EURO keeps ramping it up. Up to about 1.75-2” QPF now.
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lol this 12z GFS panel is obscene. Maxes out at 1.0" QPF in 6 hours in that meso-band. Frontogenic forcing is insane. The sounding from 6z looked like a nuclear bomb in UVV's in the midlevels over BTV. I know it isn't good for most of the forum, but those deepening lows riding between BOS and PWM usually are our best snow producers.
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Yeah it was still cranking!
