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powderfreak

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Everything posted by powderfreak

  1. powderfreak
    The ICON has run the gauntlet of solutions and shows how precarious this thing is. In the past couple days it’s had 0.2” to 17” for here, and everything between that. Much better run for some light to moderate SNE snows at 18z.
  2. powderfreak
    Right where the NAM lives, over amped and juicy.
  3. powderfreak
    Hopefully it’s Diane. Moves up and then gets smoked a week later.
  4. powderfreak
    Yeah that's pretty iron clad.
  5. powderfreak
    Yeah now 6”+ probs with a big increase. These were non-existent yesterday.
  6. powderfreak
    EPS 3”+ probs... those did come north and increase a bit.
  7. powderfreak
    Sorry man, we are all just joking.
  8. powderfreak
    He knew what he was doing.... shouting from the alter “rain for everyone” turns into that Euro run.
  9. powderfreak
    A very quick and dirty way to see the overall vibe of the run on the 10:1 products. I mean it’s the same as those QPF by p-type products, just with better colors.
  10. powderfreak
    What a bomb.
  11. powderfreak
    Why we even look at anything else...
  12. powderfreak
    I’d think the Euro spits the difference. Honestly the EPS has been rock solid, so see no reason to change that idea. It’s seemed to have similar probability for here and northern CT hills. Seems reasonable given the spread.
  13. powderfreak
    GGEM tickled north too. It was so suppressed even the chickens didn’t get much at 00z. GGEM though has the heart of it lined up with the EPS so seems reasonable.
  14. powderfreak
    Now I’m in bed with the EPS mean, gonna ride that CNE swath through the N.ORH classrooms and up through the chicken coops until proven otherwise.
  15. powderfreak
    Ginxy was right. Just ride the EPS mean for now. Stay the course. Max probs right over the chickens. That product hasn’t changed in a day or two while the deterministic guidance windshield washes back and forth.
  16. powderfreak
    This was the first post I saw and I was like, wtf is he talking about. Then I read back a page or so, lol.
  17. powderfreak
    The >3” EPS probabilities have been pretty darn steady over the past 24 hours. Tightening up and lowering probs here to the north with each run is the main change. Heres the 6z run:
  18. powderfreak
    Big difference from the 12z run at the same time.
  19. powderfreak
    You’re on it Ginxy... I’m rusty. Should be looking at ensembles right now instead of deterministic. Probability of 3”+ on EPS: Woodstock, CT around the same as here.
  20. powderfreak
    Driving back to Stowe, we caught some awesome views of Mt Mansfield from the west side as the clouds cleared briefly and the sun lowered. The great atmospheric speed bump.
  21. powderfreak
    The superstitions are out in full force. If it can’t get the two streams to interact there’s no way it gets up here. You do have to like it being either at your latitude or south...easier to come north than south seems to be the case in these?
  22. powderfreak
    A friends photo from Smugglers Notch uphill from the Stowe/Cambridge line area.
  23. powderfreak
    Congrats SNE.
  24. powderfreak
    Thanks for the radar grab J. Sounds like the Notch is a mess.
  25. powderfreak
    About to head north back home, looks like I missed the first accumulating snow in Stowe. In classic fashion the first accum was a heavy squall that looked on video like SN/+SN briefly...and then the sun came back out. The ol’ couple tenths for a first snow.
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