powderfreak

I still can’t believe my average high temp is 47F.

First call map...

18z GFS amped back up again. It tried to steal my snow at 12z but looks like it put it back for now.

lol yeah that 18z run almost mixes here...definitely mixed at Montpelier, VT. That’s worse than the Euro.

A blend of EURO/GGEM/GFS would do nicely in NNE... the EURO almost went a bit more NW with the stronger lift than the 6z run in the BTV CWA. Really goes to town in the Adirondacks.

MEX MOS has us staying below our normal minimum temperature for this time of year on both Tuesday and Wednesday. That's nuts for a product with some climate aspect baked in, that it is showing highs below our normal mins. It has 26/18, 24/9 and 29/4 for Tue/Wed/Thur.

Growing up in the Hudson Valley I remember backyard oak trees with brown leaves on them at like Christmas, lol. Those things just never fell down. Didn't matter how cold or how much snow.

This cold is fairly ridiculous. We knew it was coming but it still doesn’t feel that cold relative to normal...people seem to think this is how November should be. Wrong. The current 30-year average max/min is 47/28 here at MVL. Yesterday’s high temp was 28F....the normal low. This morning it was 11F. And it looks even colder coming up behind the early week system.

Ha knowing how you keep your truck, I was picturing your “final cleaning” as you blowing the remaining 5 brown oak leaves into the woods .

Diane FTW.

There''s a fresh inch on my car since I got home from work, but it looks like the sky is breaking to some stars. Love this discussion... .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 250 PM EST Friday...Love the snow? Well this long term forecast is for you, as models are coming into much better agreement compared to yesterday in regard to the potential for a significant snowfall across the North Country Monday night through Tuesday. Latest GFS/ECMWF/GEM are all in fairly close agreement with the strength and track of low pressure developing over the central Appalachians Monday afternoon and tracking along a stalled frontal boundary draped across the mid- Atlantic to southeast New England states. Some minor differences from west to east of the track does complicate the low level thermal profiles where the GFS and ECMWF show a warm nose between 925-850mb nudging into southern Vermont Monday night, but ensembles are slightly cooler. This would support a brief period of mixed precip across our southern zones, while elsewhere the soundings support all snow through the event. While early, indications are for the potential for 6-10" of snow in the lower elevations when it`s all said and done Tuesday evening. High summits could make out with a foot or more with upslope lingering into Tuesday night as well. Hate the cold? The rest of the long term forecast is not for you, because behind the snow cold high pressure builds into the region with strong low/mid level northerly flow ushering in the coldest air of the season yet with 925/850mb temps in the teens below zero through Thursday. This supports highs Wednesday only in the 20s with Tues/Wed night lows in the single digits to teens above zero. Some reprieve comes though Thursday into Friday as the high shifts east and southerly winds return. Temps look to warm back to normal with highs Thu/Fri in the 30s. &&

That’s awesome. It is so cold relative to normal.

Yeah, my fear is still that this comes in a bit warmer as we approach go time. Like Tippy said, it does look like a more robust repeat of the last system... and that one at this lead time was modeled far too cold ahead of the system.

6.9" event total and 6.0" on the ground.... you did better than the base of Mansfield at 1,500ft. I was estimating 3.5-4" for the base area.

True, the models sucked in the last event lol. But the snow prob maps being much further north than the deterministic solutions at one time was a red flag. The op models were snowing in CT when the ensemble snow probs were through Dendrite.

There certainly are. Not sure how those GEFS can be 90-100% on 6”< at this lead time.

Building up that natural base...

Ha hopefully we'll see what they find at the stake tomorrow. I'd guess 7-8". Splitting hairs but my Tuesday call of 4-8" by this afternoon for Mtn Ops had me strutting it around today. They are used to it though, it's why they keep me around, ha.

Still getting some good squalls at home this evening. Mission accomplished with this event, cover the grass blades in the backyard.

Yeah, fluff bomb in that band.

About 1:30. Yeah Sugarbush/MRG got a Lake Champlain streamer band. The 3km did really poorly in this one, as usual a wee bit too high back when we discussed it.

6” at the MMNV1 Stake up top. Should hit my 4-8” type call pretty well.

Yeah I’m with you. But man it stops a lot of shoveling, lol.

Probably at 1/4sm +SN now. Heated sidewalks work.

That’s real close even up here. That’s my fear that like yesterday’s event, the models over-estimated the cold air push ahead of the system.