powderfreak

It’s an autumn Great Lakes cutter. I’m sure we’ll see another warm sector with strong modeled winds out of the south before Thanksgiving.

You’re right, I’m looking back at last year and the cold looked about as impressive as this warmth. High of 38F last year at MVL on a normal of 51F.... this year high is 62F so far. About equal parts each way. I’m still biased because of the folks that seem to think the 38F should be the normal high this time of year. It’s just as rare here as today’s 60s.... the dews are another story.

Yeah the dews are definitely the more anomalous aspect. Relative to temps though, low 70s at the low els in SNE is comparable to a high of like 45F on the cold side. Pretty chilly but mid-40s on Halloween doesn’t seem that exotic. It is a torch for sure but I dunno, the temps just aren’t doing it for me when the record maxes are still in low-80s for like CT. Our winter torches seem much more impressive relative to normal I guess...when the ave min is like 18F but it’s 47F and raining all night in January. Standard deviation would be the way to really measure the temps against other torches.

I was actually thinking about 2006. I remember a crazy fine line of strong winds and heavy rain in December, that’s probably the event.

She’s going to give you a run for your money! Ha, it’s great to have another regular poster in the upslope zone.

Sounds like a relatively normal fall sou’easter to be honest. Big Lakes low and warm sector with a fine convective line....seems to happen 1-2 times a fall, no? You get ups and downs... but honestly it seems like you are just trying to get folks riled up. You get a day of 70F and then a day of 50F....that’s fall. Regardless, average highs are still up there, it’s not like it should be 45F for maxes. That’s closer to Thanksgiving.

If NOWdata was available I could tell you, but average highs in town per MVL are still in the low 50s. Picnic tables are probably like 41/28 or something? Honestly the highs have been pretty much spot on normal if not even below normal. The mins have been warm. October at MVL will be around +1 up here... probably within 1 SD of normal?.

Yeah but given climo it still seems like the expectation is cooler. Record highs are still in summer temp range and record lows are barely below freezing in upper 20s. BDL yesterday had record high of 83F and low of 28F. Sure a colder shot is expected but it could be 80F, or 28F.

The high temp today is just as likely to be 65F at BDL and BOS as it is 50F. It’s really crazy how skewed the climo perception is right now.

Just for reference. The average high today in Boston is 57F and the average high at BDL is 58F. The record high temperature at BDL for the 30th is 83F, so I’m sure 65-70F has happened before. Pretty much the entire month has average maxes in the 60s except this final week. Like we talked about yesterday, folks seem to think climo is winter now...when a normal Halloween is highs 55-60F.

Last week I was walking the dog on the Rec Path and ran into a friend who was commenting on how incredibly mild it was at 55F and sunny. I said hang on, looked up the 30-year normal max at MVL and it was 54F at the time. He couldn’t believe it, what he thought was incredibly mild was spot on normal.

Ha I figured most were tired of hearing about it. But last year was a record November all around. Like TauntonBlizz mentioned, folks do take the best case scenario and run with it. Instead of skiing glades in November, “normal” is skiing 1 or 2 white ribbons down with maybe a few inches of natural and grass blades showing through. This season is progressing about normal and folks act like we are way behind lol. Normal high temp in town is still in the 50s (51F).... that’s been blowing people’s minds lately when I tell them that. It’s like folks think highs should be 30-35F on Nov 1st.

lol we are in trouble if the Picnic Tables can’t get 7 more inches by Nov 30th. I’ll take the over.

Last November was literally all-time when you put it all together. Brutal cold, tons of snow, huge snowpack. Only November since records began in 1954 with a 40” or higher snow depth. Not surprising we won’t see that again. But yeah skiers on social are acting like last Oct/Nov was normal and should be expected.

Where do you get that product? Pretty cool visual on the biases.

Awesome. Maybe another 2” of rain?

Ahhh there's the connection. Thanks Dave.

What am I missing... how do you get Plastictown from Leominster? lol.

Last November had deep thick snow cover in NNE by late in the month. If anything there will be less SE advancement of snowpack compared to last year early season James.

I had the same question

Hard to wrap your head around those temps right now. its not like just elevations or West Yellowstone or Glacier Park... millions of people right now along the Front Ranges are dealing with a frigid snowstorm in October.

Yeah this has been a really wet month. Widespread 5-10” in NNE lol.

It’s been misting for what seems like days up here. Meanwhile Denver is 12F 1/4sm SN, wind chill at -6F. Thats just sick. 1/4sm snow with wind chills below zero.

Man I could really go for some sun. The cloud deck has been like 500ft above the Mansfield parking lots for like 3-4 days it seems now. It’s almost claustrophobic lol. I want to see the world!

It's going to be noticeable. Humid evening and night. I actually am looking forward to being able to open the sliding doors and not pay for heat.