powderfreak

Best forcing is still down between ALB and SYR but lifting northward. That radar almost has a Valentine's Day 2007 type band look to it. It took a very similar track with strong forcing from west of ALB up to BTV land.

Just pounding snow now. Man that stuff stuck quickly to the freezing rain on the trees. Pines sagging fast on only a wet half inch.

It really depends on how one measures the winter. I feel like there’s been a shift on the forum in grading winters. Early on with WWBB and EUSWX, everyone judged winter solely on inches of snow. Doesn’t matter when or how, if on April 1st you had X-inches relative to normal, that was that. Many still do that, I generally find that snowfall is what you look back on as a single number. Like in 30 years, snowfall will be the quick and dirty look. Maybe it was because back on those forums we had mid-Atlantic folks with us, but snowfall inches was the holy grail to grade a winter...and ratter had to be a very specific snowfall amount to be counted. One storm can take a place quickly out of ratter territory even if the rest of winter does nothing at all.

Crusty the Clown visited last night. Dog can walk on the pack with that ZR layer.

@Organizing Low in the Northern Champlain Valley there you could get like 10-14” in the next 8-10 hours if you are already over to snow. Got a healthy 1-1.5” QPF to go on all the models.

My gut says it’s more diffuse and a bit further north. It’s pretty crazy to have a 970s low cutting right through New England in early February.

Pretty decent gradient there on the 00z Reggie. I mean no matter where that sets up, if there's a gradient even close to that?

It’ll be interesting for sure. Whatever happens, the models are all showing 1.0+” QPF in 12-hrs tomorrow. Scalping sleet followed by pounding snow? I’m not sure I remember the models so adamant for days on an axis of ridiculous precip. 12-hour QPF...not storm total to go.

I actually remember you posting about that event. Hopefully you grab some ice tonight too.

Amen!

Light sleet up here. Freshly groomed dog path next to my house, wintry appeal. We’ll see what tomorrow brings.

I usually love convection. Bump that nor'easter westward all day long. I still think we have a fun period of snow tomorrow.

There's a ton of convection in the deep south. Always seems to play with these big southern lows.

Tucky tucky. The HRRR tracks the low over SLK lol.

I agree... I think this event was tougher for a narrow range with the two-part event. Now that part 1 is mostly done, time to narrow it up. We are seeing a mix of -SN/-IP/-ZR that seems to be changing from minute to minute.... but the -SN is clearly losing the battle as it's intervals are getting further and fewer between the IP/ZR misty stuff.

8-9" at home and 11.00-11.75" at 1,500ft. My gut has always been around a foot for the mtn.

Up to 3-4” range... need to grab 8” tomorrow. I forecasted 8-16” on here and 7-14” on FB so I think that’ll nail it. Bush league to run with the heaviest guidance all the time .

Driving generally unplowed roads with 2-3" on it is a lot of fun.

In Reggie we trust, lol. I think the gradient is northern Champlain Valley but we can hope for the messenger shuffle.

About 2.5" so far at 6am. Steady snow falling.

A true melt

You have to leave your options open. Always leave room for the sleet.

Yeah I’ve been saying all along I just want a boat load of frozen QPF. It all ends up the same in the end. Need to bolster the pack and adding a lot of SWE is one way to do it.

This still could bust pretty good if the sleet is further NW... maybe convection pumps the heights a bit and the wave amps up? The 18z HRRR, RGEM, and even GFS were a tick warmer in the mid levels again...putting best snows north of here. There will be a tight NW to SE gradient somewhere along that mid-level freezing line.

Hopefully! You know the drill though, gotta think of all scenarios. The 18z GFS had 0.5” QPF as mixed and 1.5” as snow... total of 2.0” QPF. So we could see a good mixed period for sure.