powderfreak
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Everything posted by powderfreak
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I saw that you were the last poster in the thread and my first thought was “What did MPM find to Eeyore this threat when he’s looking prime in ORH...?” At least keep that glass of Diet Coke half full!
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It’s a pretty decent little south shuffle at 18z. HRRR/3kmNAM/Herpes (the meso models) all have similar output in SE Mass. This will be interesting. Just remember these are 10:1 ratios... actual of 7-8:1 would shave down but 3-4” of true wet paste could be higher impact.
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That is sick isothermal... shit that looks like it’s starting from above 850mb and staying the same all the way to the surface... That’s almost like isothermal from 825!
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lol wut?
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What a winter pattern... I think this is what, day 4 or 5 of snow showers (even midday), traces of snow, etc. The persistent flurry of April, days and days. Its not much but it’s a snow shower moving through like once an hour for what feels like days. And not graupel , but like currier and Ives flakes. -
BTV doesn’t forecast for the SVT counties.... those are ALY’s.
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That is a pretty decent tick South for ya.
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Yeah I wasn’t even thinking about the current system but it is just an absolute classic post-mortem statement with winter storms. With no real data to back this up, except my own experiences being on the edge so many times, it just seems the “surprise band” likes to set up on the QPF gradient. Like that zone in a winter storm that goes from 1.0”+ to 0.3” QPF with the tightly packed QPF lines... that mid level magic likes to end up in that modeled gradient.
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No one in New England has ever had any experience with that sort of outcome, lol. What a classic statement... "the fronto banding overperformed further north..."
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It did best up here in that late March event too. Constantly showing a solid northern event here while other models had very little if anything... then all the ASOS were reporting M1/4 +SN with 5-10”. It’s still the best model.
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I agree. Ride that thing to it’s death at this point. It’s been now almost 3 days of very little movement on the Euro output.
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They are all over done, all the snow maps. Widespread 10:1 ratios like its falling on frozen ground ain’t happening... but you can see the general highlighted areas of a given model run, just don’t take the values verbatim. The maps are the most over-done in the lower elevations and marginal thermal areas.
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00z ECM is a big hit for the Massif.
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I haven’t looked at soundings but the p-type progs have like a half inch water as snow on the Cape in the thump, lol.
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HRRR-X is pretty much identical to the NAM in terms of the main axis.
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Agreed, ORH has been looking fantastic for days. I’ve been on the TOL-ORH. Will have to watch these little tickles as ORH has a lot more wiggle room than TOL.
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Lol... 11” ORH?
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18z Euro clown map.
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White Pines seem to come down if you look at them the wrong way... 3” of slop certainly starts cracking those evergreen branches.
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Maybe you personally but October 2011 was devastating on the whole for CT power wise, no? Not sure if that’s a great example of avoiding outages.
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I’m a fukkin idiot, lol. For a second I forgot it was happening tomorrow night, not tonight. Yeah disregard that statement haha. No doubt if the guidance is the same tomorrow they issue advisories.
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Is it me or does it seem weird BOX has no advisories out? Whats your threshold there? Is it 3 or 4 inches? Seems like it would be worthy of at least a cluster of county zones around ORH and Mass Pike zones to East Slopes?
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That is the 3k NAM Kev. The simulated radar prog is trying to show your Tolland hills.
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Sharp southern boundary near Kev, such a tough call but if 18z EURO is still there, ride that out. 18z NAM is hilarious though around BOS. Can you imagine if pretty much the entire state of MA woke up to 6-9”...right into downtown Boston.
