powderfreak

Optimism hasn’t been working, I think you are on the right track. Gotta try everything. Expect zero winter rest of the way and get pleasantly surprised.

I thought of you as soon as seeing the Euro. Hope that works out for you guys and someone can grab an inch or two to brighten up the landscape.

Yeah they are obnoxious when challenged... but then when an arctic outbreak happens in early February that same person will be like “Yes see, I missed the arctic outbreak and huge snowstorm by a week or two, but back in October I called for a huge disruptive February snowstorm followed by an arctic outbreak!” I feel like I could randomly make things up in 3-week blocks throughout the winter and be right some of the time and then pound chest.

I can never understand how long range seasonal forecasters are so cocky. Even amateurs with seasonal forecasts can come off at times as overly pushy to make you believe they were correct. But maybe you need to do that to try and prove to folks part of what you did was right?

Winter scene through the lens today... below normal snow winter, but certainly could be worse. Made up some ground recently. Hopefully everyone can get some snow accums in the next 7-10 days of short waves.

Agreed. I bet it's closer to ORH than BTV area for climo, IMO. He's NNE latitude but in that SW to NE coastal swath. I mean, it's similar to here too in that we get mountain snowfall, just further north than the mountains further south. On the basic level, snowfall increases as you head north in latitude in the northeast. Similar climate but further north, you're going to do a bit better with a longer length of snow season on average.

What is bolded there is definitely true. I don't agree with the good pattern stuff because I think what most of New England thinks as a good pattern will redeem higher results in the lower average snowfall areas. Our snowfall can be more steady in all patterns, IMO. Of course we have our times when all of New England is raking and we rake really high too, but it's all relative to average in my mind. Average sets expectations. In a below normal satisfaction winter, we'll certainly seem to do much better. Crappy winters are usually warmer or more cutter-ish, but even at +7 this month, our average highs were below freezing. Warmer winters also have the baroclinic zone closer to us, more activity, etc. It's been a below average winter up here, but we've had a winter with consistent snow cover and some snowy weeks.

I think it would depend on the run... do you only take 1 run and 7 day totals or do you do a running blend with 4 runs per day? I do think the ensemble snow maps are pretty solid on the whole for 7-day chunks...but they don’t have those wild swings of the Ops and are essentially an ensemble QPF map.

Yeah I like SWFE chances even if they aren’t big dogs...they are usually moderate events but widespread. But I don’t get all jacked up on a late blooming Miller B pattern like some of ya’ll.

We are going to have our chances. GFS and Euro offered some decent hope for the next 7-10 days with a variety of overrunning events.

No one wants below normal with a gradient pattern for DC/Philly . Keep the heating bills in check and drape frontal boundaries nearby for lots of overrunning.

Yeah I was thinking Detroit, but same thing ha.

Start a storm thread?

Wintry appeal lol.

Still a nice light snow look on the 6z EURO for the interior from that northern stream energy.

This January was hot. These are some pretty crazy monthly departures... BTV... +8.0 MVL... +7.2 MPV... +6.7 It’s pretty impressive we’ve been able to at least get some snow and keep it on the ground this month. Guess it shows how cold January in NNE should be when it’s +7 to 8 and our mean max temp is still below freezing. 31/14 is +7...guess we can still survive at that departure in mid winter.

Maybe NNE can salvage a light 1-3” refresh from the northern stream? Decent little streak across the north.

We'd weed out quite a bit of weenies if we banned all those who blindly believe big snows are always coming...

Nice shot there @ChasingFlakes! Here's one from Stowe yesterday. The Northern Greens have been showing off with this past storm cycle.

I had the opposite opinion, I feel like everything goes east at the end and isn’t as amped up as expected. But that’s from someone way NW who pays attention to that. Even the last system slid east at the last moment and kept the mountains here snow when they were going to rain.

And then do the “Messenger East Shuffle” (RIP) within the last 36 hours...

Yeah that’s why folks are looking for a bigger event. It’s either fish or big hit. It won’t do anything if it scrapes SE Mass...air mass looks pretty shitty.

I believe we had it at 37” prior to the event after those mild couple days last Friday/Saturday. We’ve been supplying the NWS with daily photos of the Stake since their camera battery died (I think they are trying to replace it today or tomorrow). I thought 37” was the lowest I saw documented before the storm. Getting back towards normal now. Feels like it, this stuff was dense and the positive impact on skiing this moist upslope event had cannot be understated. Yesterday skied Upper Goat for first time this season with no ice. Just nice dense powder.

Had a few lingering flurries at 5am at the mountain that cleared out rapidly from 6-7am here. Clear skis now and that’s the official end to 4-days of persistent snow that brought 15” of dense snow to the upper half of the mountain.

Ha! Used that earlier out on the hill. Just constant refreshes and finally the frozen QPF shot the mountain needed, including the base area. The base area at 1,500ft was around 7-8" total...3,000ft was twice that over the past few days.