powderfreak

Friday looks like it could be a sneaky torch day... pretty good above normal plume at 850mb fires in from the SW.

Fog saved us today... been holding at 39F since midnight with 1/4sm vis.

What a month we just finished. May 2020 will be hard to top for variety. From BTV’s summary: “We had a new record high temperature for the month of May at BTV and MPV on May 27th. We set a record for the highest minimum temperature at BTV on May 27th & 28th, the low was 72. Let's not forget that we had our second latest measurable snowfall on May 9th as well.“

Been pretty consistent in showing a couple day cool down around the 7/8th and then the top of heat comes up over the top for a couple days of big heat, then another cool shot comes in. This pattern looks familiar of the highest anomalies riding up into Canada and NNE... Might be a pattern developing there. Hottest temps aloft again over the NNE Mtns there... no relief in the mountains, ha.

Crazy... got some moisture coming in on NW flow that should be snow for the picnic tables. Precip even looks like winter on radar, smoothed vs. convective entering N.NY.

The same models that showed heat not on the 8th but on the 11th? They are pretty decent.

34F this morning. SLK with 26F off that 93F last week.

38/34 Temp drop has slowed down with clouds. Some moisture moving in.

Pretty good snow shower for the mountains ripped through Mansfield and is now hitting Bolton. Can see the phase change in the visibility up high. And legit snowing pretty good on the Bolton Valley Vista Peak cam:

SLK bouncing around between 43-45F all afternoon after setting the hottest temp for that ASOS in the last week, ha. We just had some brief graupel mixed with rain down here. Temp has fallen to 46F at my place. Mountain is seeing some snow... can see the visibility change up high where the shower changes to snow along the ridgeline.

Maybe it’s supply, but I do subscribe to some of what Kevin talks about... history would say parts of that ridge make it to us at some point. Maybe they are brief interludes before getting beaten back west again, but my money would be on it getting here at some point. Any time those lower heights in the Maritimes weaken, that ridge will try to roll in here...maybe over the top? But I find it hard to believe those lower heights fight off that ridge all summer.

You may be right, I just looked at our climo normals and the crazy few days of 85-95F heat skewed my mind as to what is climo right now. Our average max temp is only 70F... I was thinking it was upper 70s already lol...turns out lower 70s is above normal for first week of June.

6-10 day EPS average departures at 850... that ridge in the Midwest isn’t going anywhere so Kev is going to get his heat at some point. Might be like in the winter when a pattern change is delayed by a week but not denied. At some point that thing will probably roll into us.

To be fair, everyone is just trolling you because the models don’t show what you say. The closer we get though it may seem more like throwing darts at dates on a calendar and then not budging when new data comes to light. It does bring a fun little competition vibe between KFS and the models though, ha.

21F on MWN after they hit the highest May temp of 66F last week. Rollercoaster.

11am temps... Most of the Adirondacks are struggling in low 40s lol.

49/33 up here with partly sunny skis. Chilly!

Get June off on the right foot? Sunday Night A slight chance of rain and snow showers between 11pm and 1am, then a slight chance of snow showers after 1am. Increasing clouds, with a low around 32. Windy, with a northwest wind 21 to 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

I did get a chuckle out of the 18z GFS. It just laughed at DIT. Heat wave begins on the 8th here... Lasts for a couple days...June 10th. Then settles in for a real hot stretch for mid-June onward.

While thinking outside the box is generally good, I just don’t get the “put away the models” phrase. It comes off as this “Dorothy tap your shoes together three times and you’ll get the weather you desire” mentality. Weather models are what we do as a forum.

Hopefully Bob and Doug have a good time.

I'm not exactly stoked on that look, but looping out the model runs towards mid-June has that over-the-top look again that we just saw. There's heat there in SNE end of the first week but then it seems to break but build again over the top. Maybe this is the summer Montreal bakes. EPS has that look though as there's a persistent weakness east of New England... can envision a scenario where if those lower heights are stable off the New England coast, that pieces of the midwest and Great Lakes ridge fold over top up into Ontario and Quebec.

Finishes on the 9th? You wonder if this is a summer where we bake further NW and especially Canada. The last few GFS runs have been signaling sustained big departures over Canada in the means, but more transient in SNE.

June is going to start with the highs not reaching our minimum temps from the past few days, ha. Nothing but mid-50s to mid-60s for high temps Sunday through Thursday. Whiplash from snow to record heat to late April climo.

Played for the first time this season two days ago at a local 9-hole track not far from the MVL ASOS, lol. Wasn’t too pretty, bogey golf but it was first time out.