powderfreak
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Everything posted by powderfreak
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The Canadian version of the HRRR lol. That’s one helluva gradient.
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ICON is another early out model, no big wholesale changes there from 18z except it tightened up the gradient in NE Mass. Worecester County varies from like 0.3” to a foot from south to north.
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That’s some crazy early variance on the 00z runs. Nice, gotta keep it interesting.
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Congrats Chickens, Lava and Dryslot on 00z 3KM NAM
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Euro is on its own though with the northern stream. I know no one likes the HRRR but it’s early 00z looks suggest a more congealed precip shield over SNE/CNE instead of the split two-part thing the Euro has been showing.
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You seem like a good spot.
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18z EURO is odd with almost like two different areas of precip. One moving through SNE and one now up into this area. I would imagine it ends up congealed together into one precip shield closer to the SFC low. Just a very odd look.
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Hell I'm enjoying tracking something even down there. Anything but the doom and gloom all day long now of COVID. A reason to look at the models. Hope this busts nicely and you all get pasted white.
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Razor sharp edge on the 3km simulated radar... the edge is pretty stable there for several hours of pounding to the north. Almost looks like it's trying to show the Blue Hills there south of BOS with the blue dot (maybe a bit east of Blue Hill?) lol
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Not that anyone asked, but the 18z ICON also wants to have a very sharp gradient just NW of BOS. It's certainly not just high terrain, the models seem to be wanting to move some heavier snow into NE Mass. Maybe the resolution can't really show it like the 3km NAM but the overall vibe is pretty similar... it may not take much to drop that heavier paste right inside 128 on the north end.
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3km NAM really keeps the immediate NW burbs of BOS dynamically isothermal. It's got good snows right to the water on the North Shore and that's real close to BOS with strong UVVs.
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Oof, what a cut back in the Catskills the past 24 hours.
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Man Euro gets 1/2” QPF up here? Maybe we can cover the grass again.
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Yeah those are 10:1... take 7-8:1 and they are probably pretty close.
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It is crazy how different the GFS is from other models even at 24-48 hours out now.
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GGEM’s out.
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1 point for 40/70 haha.
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This winter up here will oddly be very similar to 2011-12. I've had 85" and I think it was 86" in '11-12 IIRC. 3,000ft at the mountain has had 214" this winter and I had 223" I think in 2011-12. Both town and mountain are running around 70-75% of normal snowfall. End of February it looked like we might be more on pace for close to normal but March has put a full stop on snowfall.
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ORH unfortunately is more like Tolland this winter than HubbDave. But yeah I'm not exactly sure what they average but looking at the snow total thread for the RT 2 crowd, they could get close to normal if they had back to backers (Hippy to Hubb) and average in the 65-75" range depending on elevation. ALB is only a foot below normal but they are in the valley so I don't think they can do it, if they snow their ratios will be like 6:1 slop at 200ft.
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True but by and far it’s a similar threat zone if you go with the higher probability zones right now. Nothing will ever be a perfect match, just has that RT 2 vibe again and extending west into the Albany County warning area. Then again that’s just a CNE snowstorm too, ha.
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ICONIC. Because we all need the diversion of a nice snow map right now.
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Similar zone/axis as in the big early December event.... ORH Hills and RT 2 all the way back through ALB and into the Catskills.
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3KM NAM wants none of the 12km solution though. Still big difference between those two as the past few runs have all had. HubbDave has a like 2-16" spread just on the two NAM's alone, ha.
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NAM goes Big Fly to right field...deep, deep, gone.
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Follow the tire tracks to the Man Shed.... that's where the Beast is kept.
