powderfreak

lol Reggie brings Tolland a half a foot on the front side.

Its mind boggling how long you've been on these forums but don't actually look at the models. The NAM has about a tenth of an inch of ZR for you and mostly rain ending as a period of snow. It has 0.5-0.8" freezing rain for ORH northward.

A veteran presence. Weather forecasting is 100% emotional. Play reverse psychology, wishcasting, whatever it takes to get the weather you desire. Anyone from NYC pulling that stuff would be 5 ppd, ha.

The first wave is warm. Cold, wants to flip folks to snow at the end even way down south.

It came in a bit flatter and colder than 6z EPS. Looks pretty similar to the OP.

Not that it matters, they are both in the same shitty class, ha. But those Ensembles were much flatter than the OP, so that’s a good sign for colder/south appeal.

GFS

He’d have the AC window units installed by Saturday evening. Just completely done with winter.

The GEFS are not even close to the OP. Good reason to toss the OP. OP GEFS

Yeah there’s a long way to go. The max snow zone could still be Dendrite area (ICON was CNE), or it could be in Montreal (GFS). Icing could still be over Dendrite or it could be over Tolland. So much time.

Im not gonna lie, it’s pretty impressive the model can pick out those localized high icing areas. Fits climo with NE slope of ORH Hills and then east slope cold pockets of the Berkshires for significant icing.

ORH Grid failure.

That was the best case scenario run, never really shuts off between the two waves. Those SE ticks are really helping as that was looking to be up in the St Lawrence. We have some decent wiggle room for some more SE ticks too.

Just destroyed! Best Euro run yet.

Yeah I think JSpin and I have spitballed this many times, but sort of settled on +3 to +4 up here as where we can still be above normal snow at those temps. But even we see below normal snow at +7. Its just hard to build a pack at those departures, despite having snow on the ground the whole month, it’s rotted in that 4-8” range for a long time under 1000ft.

The pattern has been so incredibly hostile towards snow, when you look at it all together, it’s not just bad luck it hasn’t snowed. It’s a bad pattern. Cant run these departures for 45 days and expect much winter. +2 to +3 can be worked with but +7 to +9?

The bolded is spot on, yet it gets ignored for some reason when models show wintry weather at day 6/7. It’s not that the models have been that bad, it’s like burying your head in sand WRT the larger picture and think “this one has a chance!” Its like in a summer pattern where we know the teleconnections aren’t there for big heat yet the Day 7-10 keeps pumping 90-100F into SNE. Then about day 4 it becomes 85-90F at the torch spots and 80-85F everywhere else and those 103s barely become 89F. I mean we just had a January average +7 across the board. And February isn’t looking much colder. That’s a hostile pattern for snow.

Man what a shellacking from that Canadian guidance. Best run yet from the ski areas here over towards Sugarloaf area.

Straight giggity on that run. Not even done at 90 hours... solid foot there.

The latest EPS continues to show 0.75-1.0" of moisture across Northern Vermont. If we can remain mostly frozen, it will be a good addition to the snowpack I expect mixed precip but would love to avoid plain rain.

That seems to be a popular opinion, so I could very well be wrong. Wouldn’t be the first time.

I believe he likes warmer weather.... he's trolling the same as some of us do in the summer who enjoy cooler/lower humidity weather. It's weird but we as a forum were bound to find someone who doesn't care for cold and snow. Forky is another one and everyone calls him a troll. But I guess it would be extremely difficult to post on this board in the winter in the winter without trolling if you aren't extremely pro-snow.

That is absolutely insane. What a run. What was the average before that?

EURO gives him his ice storm with a good half inch of ZR.

What have they/we missed though? Like missed as in we shouldn't even be entertaining thoughts of wintry weather and the models should never even show those day 5 solutions? It's a winter with a mean western trough and good southeast ridging. Occasionally we get a some confluence to the north that helps New England but by and far it's not a good overall pattern for deep winter in the east.