powderfreak
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Everything posted by powderfreak
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6-7” here at the ski area. Stacked right up very fast.
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It is just pounding snow right now. This is probably 2"/hr. Just cotton candy falling from the sky.
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Yeah yesterday the models really honed in on an axis from like BTV to LCI to PWM.
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Yeah it’s like good snow growth snow with some residual surface warmth from the past few days. Sticking to every object, an incredibly picturesque snow.
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Dumping. 2-3” so far. Fluffy but pasty at 30F. Everything is pasted white, even tree trunks. 1” in past hour.
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Friendly advice James, if you're expectations are always high, the chance for a positive bust are very low.
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It’s certainly possible... there is a very cold air mass in front of it. I always worry the best lift will be below the DGZ in these events with a primary low back to the west, ripping mid level WAA further north than expected.
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I'd sell good ratios on any WAA SWFE style system... 7-9:1 seems to be the climo favored results from these type of events.
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I am so confused by what James is posting, ha.
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Started looking like winter after 2.5" of dense snow this morning... about half fell before 6am and half between 6-9am. It was heavy dense snow, almost sand-like with mixed precipitation mixed in. Made a huge difference in ski conditions....had to be a good shot of liquid, maybe 0.25-0.3" as I bet it was under 10:1 ratios.
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Been a rough winter for the models. Euro snow... I’d take near half inch of QPF and run.
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The snow growth looks pretty darn good... hits the mid level lift on the front side, then when the CAA kicks in it lowers the DGZ towards the lowest 5,000ft of the atmosphere where the orographic lift starts.
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I’d be curious too.... some of the fluffiest snow I’ve seen on the mountain can be associated with just ripping NW gales. Can get 40:1 ratios with no resistance at all on 30-40kt winds. I’ve always thought those flakes don’t seem to “crash and fracture” as much for whatever reason, maybe because they have such low water in them to begin with? A heavier dendrite in a nor’easter might fracture and compact?
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Low end Winter Storm Watches up for the upslope zones.
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Euro and GGEM beefed it up a bit overnight.
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Unrealistic expectations at long lead times causes most of it. Over abundance of model data adds to it. And honestly if all the modeled snowstorms hit as depicted at random day 5-9 intervals we all probably average 250” a season. You are in NH right? Should be fine there.
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Yeah agreed, just busting your balls.
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You seemed excited for 1-3” in that little critter thread!
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18z GFS continues with it's theme of hammering the NW flow terrain with QPF. Odd to see it that robust with two meager lows moving through without a big closed cyclonic flow or something.
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Winter 2020 New England Banter and General Obs
powderfreak replied to CapturedNature's topic in New England
Looks like we may have a repeat on Tuesday night or Wednesday morning... light QPF progged and still very little saturation in the snow growth zone. Today we got a whitening of what I can only describe as the snow equivalent of drizzle. It was the smallest needle flakes you'll ever see, just like a snow mist. -
Yeah only had 0.12" at MVL vs. 0.26" on the 12km. Same down your way where the 3km had 0.06" vs. 0.13" for LEW. I'm more inclined to believe those lesser amounts and it looks similar to today with either -SN or -FZDZ with pretty shitty saturation in the snow growth zone. Can always toss those 3km mountain QPFs as it's just the model going apeshit with what is really just rime ice...its like wherever the cloud level interacts with the terrain it prints obscene QPF in error.
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Usually not unless its a meso-scale upslope snow where the ratios are often higher anyway. Most synoptic snow though has those Kuchie maps wayyyyy too high.
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Yeah 3km is like 50% of what the 12km NAM showed on Tuesday Night/Wednesday morning.... both here and there.
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Ahhh I was looking at the 12km NAM. It looks like it even has 0.18-0.20" in the GYX/PWM area prior to Thursday's event. I think the QPF might be too high on that earlier event on Tuesday night.
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It had a decent 0.1-0.25" over areas of GYX's area. Maybe not your house per se but there's some earlier QPF there, even 0.30" for the Whites Tuesday night. It had 0.17" at IZG, 0.18" to 0.20" PWM, etc. I was just saying you can take a tenth or two off it for earlier. No big deal.
