powderfreak

Won’t they get lower later today? So the low doesn’t really count?

It’s an impressive and funny indication of the winter so far. Those things (not many living things) have no long term predictive power, but they certainly know when things are running ahead of schedule in ground/water environmental temps. More indicative of the recent past than the future if you really think about it.

I just had that thought. Just bring a regionwide like 10”+ and call it a year. Snowpack outside walking the dog is like 6-7” of QPF-rich granular. Certainly very warm for mid-February and sun angle starts to lean warmer. Still early enough though to score even a brief wintery week, as low a shot as it seems sometimes.

Had to circle back to this interaction this morning… ha, now the afternoon EURO was exactly what I was thinking of when I wrote the bolded. Tickle MVL with 8” over 10 days is congrats Temblant. We need that gradient down around RT 2 this season to score nicely.

Touché, well played with the warm flux in the Indian Ocean.

Can you speak about the global pattern a bit? What do you see outside North America going on that will lead to warmth from here on out?

Speaking of shallow inversions… last night was wild around here with huge swings. From 32F to 53F in one hour at MVL. Fell back into the 30s later too. Nothing like a puff of wind and 21 degree rise in temps.

Yeah for sure. 50% of either, those are great odds at this lead time… I might’ve gone lower as I don’t trust Day 10 totals. I feel like we are saying the same things but just in different ways, ha.

See I disagree. The snow maps clearly showed a gradient pattern lowering south in a part of December and then again in January that resulted in a couple healthy storms for CNE/NNE. That look on those maps was exactly what we saw before VT/NH/ME got 12-20” over a week in January. We talked about it a lot back then, the gradient sinking south. The Tremblant snows were when the gradient was tickling us up here. Like 5-8” at MVL over 10 days usually ended northward. Could it be wrong? It probably is as much as any Day 10 total prog, but the gradient there is further south in latitude.

Really going out on a limb here not thinking NNE is done with winter the second week of February. Winter weather Advisory for ice and 1-3” of snow tomorrow. This place is wild though.

There are chances though. Similar gradient pattern though to most of the winter.

Without that 0.3 degree background warming we’d have been a more manageable +7.7 in January instead of +8.0. The lows probably would’ve tracked southeast of us too instead of up the St Lawrence Valley.

32.7F here while about 400 feet overhead it’s in the 50s. MVL seeing the same thing. Fake cold trying to preserve the snowpack. Ski area base getting torched at 51F.

Some real fake cold tonight, ha. Snow is getting crispy outside at 32.7F on my local PWS near the river here. MVL ASOS also at 33F. Its in the low 50s though at the base of the ski area. Stowe to Morrisville… cold in the RT 100 corridor to 50s just off the deck. Wild inversion.

3,700ft

My car said 36F coming home. My buddy said it was 50s in BTV. About a 20 degree difference from here to BTV.

Sometimes it reads like Mets like you, Will, Brooklyn are just having a discussion… just chatting weather. But sometimes people read way too deeply into it. Snow and winter has always carried a lot of weight around here. If talking about a possible Day 8 hot pattern in July, no one cares if it comes or not, ha.

Don’t give anyone even an ounce of hope. By discussing any potential winter weather, even weeks out, you give hope, even if to you it’s just a meteorological discussion. Don’t do it. Squash all hope. Its all on the reader and how they interpret the information.

What seems to happen is the Mets fully understand the probability and the odds but will talk about it because it’s something to talk about… while the bulk of the forum usually get excited when the Mets are chatting. There’s definitely a lot of emotional turmoil… like if Will/ORH is talking about a threat people read way to much into that. They think Will likes this one, it’s coming. And now folks are just sick of Mets talking about it, because there’s still a good bit of weight of emotional investment when the Mets chirp. Its this weird dynamic going on. Edit: Will just nailed it. “It’s on the reader…” for not understanding exactly what the Mets are discussing.

Bingo. We all get it. Winter has sucked but what are we adding to the discussion of model data is shown to illustrate a point and the response is “Nope, not happening.” At the very least show some model data to illustrate why it won’t happen.

Can see the cold tuck, gets pretty icy coastal plain in that tuck zone, especially GYX area.

HRRR keeps getting colder. Has zero plain rain up this way now. Needs this to sag slightly further and in business. SN/IP/ZR.

What a day… 40F and sun.

12 years ago in 2011. That was a big winter. 150+ inches in town and 300+ inches on the mountain.

+KFS briefly going -KFS at the 18z run? Hiccup? I’ve never thought you guys or anyone were done. It’s still early. It may have been a dumpster fire of a winter, but climo still likes to have a minor say. Record low (or high) snow/precip is tough to come by for a reason. Just like in summer droughts, the odds are it can’t run that futility play forever. It doesn’t mean a memorable stretch at all, but just wintry weather around. It does start to fight the gaining sun angle though, just like HHH in the fall in reverse.