powderfreak

I’m one who is starting to dislike the real bone chilling cold… but single digits with snow cover shows the difference in climo from NNE to SNE. Those -10s and -20s mornings are the real annoyances. We’ve already had a minimum of 4F… though not the below 0F readings we can see. Forgot what year but a few Novembers ago we were -6F one night. Of course it’s fake though. All in our minds ha.

WWA for chance of icing issued in advance… following the I-93 icing issues last week?

Ha right, he was just making a post. Tiger is out here dragging a dead animal carcass across the tundra seeing if a Wolf will come bite it.

I figured he was cheering and rooting for the GFS.

I’m just busting your balls. It’ll snow, won’t rain all winter.

Pattern change right on schedule around the 11/12th. Wolfie is going to snarl just for posting the image, it’s only a joke.

Wolfie isn’t here for any of it these days .

"We don't live at 500mb" also comes to mind. The separation between 500mb anomalies and patterns, vs. sensible weather outcomes (ie. snowstorm) is a tough one to make when looking at the future. We all see one level (H5) and assume the SFC will bring us the goods. Understanding the differences will be key going forward.

This afternoon was a great day on the hill. Private ski resort, with a high-speed Quad giving you 2,100 vertical feet in 7 minutes, and literally no one around. Only two real routes down, but despite the poor visibility, the snow surface was sweet. A dense inch of new snow on top of a smooth surface seeing very little skier traffic... the runs this afternoon were sweet considering the heavy rain last night. A mix of snowflakes, pellets, and freezing drizzle came out of the cloud today, but the density of it skied very smooth. Low ratio inch of white material. I counted under a dozen cars in the Mansfield lot. There were three cars over in the Midway lots, but it was as empty as an open operating ski area could be. Literally not seeing another human for the entire run down one of the two open routes. The main issue was the fact that freezing fog/drizzle in the cloud occupied about 1,000 vertical feet (there's a thousand verts above that cloud level, and a thousand below it) and required frequent wiping of ice off the goggles. Very enjoyable for November. I guess Smuggs, Bolton and Jay Peak are closed midweek this week. It's still very early when the neighbors aren't doing 7 day a week operations.

Another good dose of QPF coming, largely in the form of water. No drought concerns lately. Every system seems juicy. Hopefully we can cash in on juicy and cold soon. Even that mid-Nov snow event was pretty good QPF.

That has an Archambault appeal... the best events come when the block relaxes and the NAO values are in flux, especially the backside of a strong block.

Lol yup. That’s how you get us. 2010 style.

18z GFS shows what miracles can come from a huge block. Retrogrades this sucker right into a New England rainer that blue bombs the mid-Atlantic. That ocean storm hits a brick wall and backs it right up. IMG_1725.MOV

Yes you played Devils Advocate or reverse psychology leading up to one of the monster storms. 2013 sounds right. Nickels and Dimes too that turned into an epic stretch also rings a bell lol.

Sounds familiar.

Folks will take any modeled snow at this point lol. The guys at NCEP know it and make sure entire 16 day runs go by without dropping even a tenth of an inch of snow on the populous. All joking aside there is some dark humor in the “pattern finally goes cold and everything suppresses” type outcome deterministically.

Yeah the north probably had one of the stronger changes too… from BTV 120 year all-time November max to 4-5” of snow even at BTV airport within like a week is quite a flip.

We went from setting all-time November highs, running the A/C at 70F nights… to sustaining snow cover for 11 straight days. How someone could say there wasn’t a change is hard to believe.

Cold rain here and there. Both local ASOS at 37F too. Brutal raw, cold rain on remaining snowcover. 20F warmer down at ORH.

This time of year is always the hardest. Climo isn't quite yet there fully... but at the same time the calendar is moving well within the bounds of possibility of a good snowstorm. If there's anything wrong with the pattern at all, it doesn't happen. But it's close enough that everyone knows if things line up in the first two weeks of December there can be a healthy cold regionwide snowstorm. Add in the fact that it's early season, anticipation is high, and a good early season period of winter keeps the "dream" of a wire-to-wire winter alive. Personally, I have no ground to stand on to critique anyone's angst. Ground was covered on November 16th and 11 days later, here this late afternoon/evening rain event at 35-37F (half inch so far) has finally opened up more grass than snow cover again. We had a good run of winter, our climo isn't that much different from other areas in New England but winter often comes earlier in the NW areas and those closer to the Great Lakes (further away from the Atlantic too). Local stations are just over 1.00" water and 9-10" snow... the ground cover lasted a while for November, because average highs during the time were still low-40s. The next time the trough settles in the benefits will be further south. Seasonal progression.

Hmmmm, is that what we got out of today’s posts? Hard to keep track . Everything looks good, it’ll be a painful waiting game for some.

37F and moderate to heavy rain. Snow cover is patchy now… by morning might only be plow piles. It was a good run of snow cover for November.

At least today was sunny almost spring skiing before the rain moved in around 3pm.

I don’t know what’s wrong with me, I’m already looking forward to March sunshine and a deep mountain pack… followed by the warm season vibes, ha. The winter just doesn’t get me as it used to a decade ago. Maybe I still had that residual ALB/Hudson Valley winter angst and it’s finally completely gone.