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powderfreak

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Everything posted by powderfreak

  1. powderfreak
    The German guy entered the chat.
  2. powderfreak
    Congrats Mass Pike at Charlton and Sturbridge?
  3. powderfreak
    You keep trying to steal my CMC snow.
  4. powderfreak
    Can start here and go up from there if we need to.
  5. powderfreak
    Was looking at forecasts near ALB and surprised how warm they are. The zones read like mainly rain in the valleys. Sunday Night... A chance of snow after 1am. Cloudy, with a low around 32. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Monday... Rain, possibly mixed with snow. High near 38. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Monday Night... Rain, possibly mixed with snow. Low around 33. Chance of precipitation is 90%.
  6. powderfreak
    That's amazing. Joe B. never stops going for shock value. A snow map in CMs .
  7. powderfreak
    Looking at the individual EPS members, man a lot of those just absolutely smoke the Catskills. Pretty crazy probs for >24" of snow.
  8. powderfreak
    Yeah, you want the explosive phase. Beyond that is banded and outward, but weakening lift.
  9. powderfreak
    Isn’t there a difference though in the maturity of the system and location relative to it? If you are NE of the rapid deepening, it might be more banded as the wave of lift propagates outward. But the places northwest of the immediate deepening should see strong and widespread lift. A shield.
  10. powderfreak
    Yeah looked better than I thought to be honest, hadn’t really been following this one.
  11. powderfreak
    That's a tough forecast in your area given the ECMWF and GFS... vs the mesos. I'd be cautiously optimistic... could see 1-2" for you or 4.
  12. powderfreak
    It's hard to believe we still need to say that. I figured we all understand exactly what the snow maps are, essentially frozen QPF maps with the decimal point moved over. You have to assume 1) the QPF is correct 2) the p-type is correct and 3) the temps/ratios are correct.
  13. powderfreak
    No way the GEFS are going to produce the QPF of the OP run. If you find an ensemble mean of widespread 2"+ of QPF then you've really hit the jackpot on historical event. There'd be some like 5" QPF members mixed in to get a mean over 2".
  14. powderfreak
    Haven’t seen the run but the fact many like it generally doesn’t bode well up here, lol.
  15. powderfreak
    The downfall here is any solution at Day 5 is going to morph into something else most likely. Some variety of this, and we just hope the models are extrapolating the initial conditions as best they can. It is good theater though when the stakes are higher for a large population. Can go south, east, north, west. But climo nor’easter snow zones have highest probability by default. Interior SNE elevations into CNE. The ORH Hills were built for this stuff.
  16. powderfreak
    I’d sign up immediately for 1” of frozen SWE on top of the current snowpack and hope you guys get 2-3”.
  17. powderfreak
    The Winter Storm Warning calling for 6 - 8 feet of snow up high is absolutely bonkers. I can't stop looking at photos of the Lake Tahoe area south to Mammoth Lakes inhabited areas. Like legit 10 - 20 feet on the ground, where people live, and another 3-6 feet on the way, with 6-8 feet at the upper elevations of the ski areas.
  18. powderfreak
    To be honestly, a blend of the two maps would likely be the snow forecast of that particular solution. 5" or 25", call it 15" and have a day.
  19. powderfreak
    Yeah, though most of these runs are injecting solid moisture profiles with up to 150% PWATs. This time of year in March with onshore flow, many previous events have proven not to sleep on the QPF. Thermals are another thing though. *IF* the upper level features and low level low get in the right spot, I'd buy the QPF.
  20. powderfreak
    It's funny how that works. There's always something about missing to the south that hits a note. The concern is almost always south over rain up this way. But like @STILL N OF PIKE, I just want a good New England storm. Give me 3", a plowable snowfall, and bring the interest of keeping the masses involved. These threads are already so much better because everyone still has hope. Most of this season the event threads are dumpster fires... still time to get there though.
  21. powderfreak
    Probably more than upper moderate. That is Ray's wet dream (white dream?).
  22. powderfreak
    Absolutely, it was more a joke. I’d still take the ECMWF over the others, maybe not as much as a decade ago but we all want that model on our side. Euro is currently schooling the GFS right now up here in upslope snow. Euro had a good Lise yesterday then not much, Gfs keeps showing QPF that’s not happening.
  23. powderfreak
    This is when the posters constantly b*tching about how the Euro sucks these days, they wrecked the model, etc all the sudden aren’t mentioning those things lol. Everyone can say what they want but we all enjoy a ECMWF run that crushes more than any other model.
  24. powderfreak
    Anywhere from Kev to Ray on that prog, I’m not worried about rain if that’s how it rolls out. I get it for the BOS-PVD axis crew though. Just another run.
  25. powderfreak
    The p-type maps seem to mirror 925mb temps on WxBell. Large area of 0C that then crashes SE.
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