powderfreak

00z HRRR... I'm thinking up this way 3-6" above 1,000-1,500ft with 1-3" below 1,000ft due to tomorrow's low level warmth. It'll start cold but I think after 2-3" below 1,000ft it'll start fighting itself. It's all about how fast one can measure after the temperatures go above 32F. Above 1,000-1,500ft should be cold enough to accumulate all day, so the 10:1 maps are likely closer to reality at elevation. In the valleys with lower ratios you can cut these numbers.

My sister in BGM… they are lower than the airport though around 1,000ft.

You’ve got some solid trips lined up! Big quality mountains.

29/21 Cold column. Sky had that distinct “snow sky” gray all afternoon.

Wakes you up better than coffee.

NAM soundings are toasty from 12z… even up here. Gets warm below 925mb tomorrow afternoon.

20F. Cold season is here.

These 10:1 ratio maps are highly misleading based on smoothed/mean elevation zones... but the axis of the 00z GFS and GGEM looks pretty similar. I'd go 8:1 below 1500ft though. The two 00z global models out so far look oddly similar in the axis of snow.

Anything completely covering the grass at this time of year is a huge win given the record warmth the past couple weeks. 1.5-2” usually gets it done on the grass for that wintry vibe.

A laptop just went out the window in Randolph, NH? Wish Phin was around for these NNE events.

Dude that’s awesome. I admire your dedication to the high-end winter experience. Its so aesthetically pleasing from what you show.

Around 11am this morning there were 160 snow guns firing between Mount Mansfield and Spruce Peak. Down in the base areas at 1,500ft, where the real battle is fought every November, everywhere you looked there was snow coming out of a gun... land frames, towers, fan guns. It was invigorating. A few days ago when record highs were falling, it seemed hopeless. Today it felt different. A show of force, especially the base area efforts. A ton of capacity was aimed into the lower elevations, knowing the upper mountain above 2,500ft will have the best parameters this week. Thank a snowmaker.

Yeah and the FIS has cancelled like 6 or 7 races world wide already this season due to warmth and lack of snow… I think they are jonesing to get one in. They definitely give Killington’s snowmaking the benefit of the doubt.

Agreed.

A helluva lot less than if that axis was 100-150 miles SE, that’s for sure.

GFS has a real nice upslope signal Thursday morning.

Must be your first time on here. No one on any of the forums back to WWBB and EUSWX have ever discussed what would need to happen to get higher winds, more rainfall, more damage, more ice, more snow, hotter maxes, colder mins or any number of more extreme outcomes. Everyone comes here to discuss how to get the most mundane outcomes possible.

.4” is a legit dusting ha. Microclimate.

Yeah I’m thinking here or a little bit south towards like MPV-Sugarbush zone. Models have been pretty consistent with some fronto-banding somewhere arcing from N/C VT into NNH. Just depends where and how robust. Sometimes it not a bad thing to be a little further north if mid-level banding realizes a bit north. NE in VT into Coos County probably a bit better for later development? Doesnt matter… just get the ground white for the first time this year.

Yeah I noticed that too and there was some dipping dots in the grass this morning.

Oh Euro. You and the GGEM.

I like the BTV forecast… 2-5” lower elevations below 1000-1500ft and 6-10” mountains. Seems about right for now.

30F and breezy with some renegade flakes flying in the flood lights. Wind chill in the teens? What a change from 72F at 5am in the last week. Picnic tables down in the mid-teens now. Should not be noteworthy in mid-November but here we are, ha.

Nothing more on-brand than the NAM reminding everyone cheering at a colder surface that Mother Nature can still find other ways to end your fun . Its been very consistent showing sleety profiles lifting north.

I would imagine the stronger surface would help with NE surface flow there as the low trajectory is more east than north tracking? Stronger that gets and moving east I’d think you’d drain cold in faster. As it goes over the canal you are strengthening NE surface winds.