powderfreak

Love the thread title, ha. Let’s spice it up in the melting pot. I’m thinking 3-6” our way to start. Synoptic density and probably falls over a 24 hour period. Could get a few lollipops higher to 4-8”?

Yeah sometimes Kuchie is better. But it’s rarely the number shown that’s important, just the overall vibe of the map. I just like using them with the implied idea that it isn’t the actual snowfall value on the map that’s important, just that it’s the amount of QPF expected to fall as snow. I just move the decimal over… says 7.0”, then 0.70” water will come as snow, figure out your own ratio from there. Call it 5-7” or 4-6”.

Won’t lie it looked funky and the ULL stuff looked too robust back in BTV’s NY zones. RGEM had your NE MA SWFE jack. Climo in these is usually south and east of up here. Best snows are usually immediately north of that mix line in SWFE.

GFS was nice up this way. TBlizz’s trip saved.

Yeah, can be a confusing process but that looked like a long duration snow.

Can’t hate the look. Widespread snow for most, classic gradient pattern but once north of the gradient it escalates real fast.

Yeah I guess that was my takeaway, that you need cold air originally to dam it in. CAD usually requires cold to begin with.

Where are you seeing ice? It looks like it's mainly rain or snow. The atmosphere is torched ahead of it. Look at the 850s as it rolls in. SFC are like mid/upper 30s as it rolls in. Not sure where the low level cold push would come from? It all looks like wet-bulbing.

That's a Ray jackpot. That looks like his dream scenario, ha.

Yeah I didn't dig into it in the least, just thought it was funny how the model is like "let's show a perfect set-up and then code it all ice. That'll show them."

Nothing more winter 22-23 than the end of that GGEM run. Beautiful looking set-up big snow. But in 2022-23 fashion... the model says it's mostly sleet somehow.

Getting at least a more widespread 2”+ zone going too. Some of this map is upslope midweek up here and not the Fri system.

After all the discussion, worry and hand-wringing… it would be absolutely hilarious if you get a powder day. Couldn't be more “on brand” for you lol.

Will add a couple shots to the thread too... yesterday was gorgeous.

Gradient has been looking likely in the means with several systems running the same zones.

Amazing views today. Truly high end stuff. The rime ice was crazy. NWS observation camera for MMNV1 snow depth (The Stake) is down. In the past and currently, we crowd source photos and observations when this happens. Yesterday a colleague went up there, today it was my turn. 22" snow depth in that long-term location. It gives something to compare to, the period of record is awesome for this high elevation site.

It was a great day. Sunny after the low clouds, rime, snizzle. Sometimes the snowpack is low-tide, but these winter scenes give the MLK weekend crew some stoke.

Huh. Still looked snowy between midweek upslope and the late week WAA…. Still a good 1/2” water to add to snowpack. I guess in the glass completely empty view it’s nothing? Still a wave moving through with upglide that traverses the area.

GFS with a nice widespread event late in the week. Gradient pattern coming up, let’s hope it can stay to the south of NNE.

It’s been bizarre. This morning I had no new snow on my car, then like a mile away everything was coated with the tiniest of flakes falling (like a mist/haze), then a couple miles further there was nothing again, etc. Mountain today was low clouds and freezing mist or small tiny flakes, some sunshine up high at times. Then leaving the mountain there was no new snow on my car, but once again drove through a band of accumulating like snow drizzle that had road covered up and back out of it again getting home. Its like all day there was this persistent standing wave of low, low level -SN that was like a thick haze/mist about two miles east of the Spine. Whitening everything up there with rime and snow, while further into the village or up to the mountain seemed to see nothing. Just a classic micro-scale deal where there must’ve been just enough convergence or lift in that one spot between the terrain to generate just enough lift in the low stratus to get flakes. Just this steady state ripple.

It’s definitely been a very north/south gradient, and that constant overrunning look every few days is a nice looking pattern. Not going to bring any huge snows but those are consistent. Not hoping for banding or mesoscale lift. Just shove some H7 WAA lift and everyone gets the same widespread snow… provided you are north of the line.

The difference in 00z HRRR/NAM and 18z Globals (esp ECMWF) is absolutely wild. Cant blame anyone for assuming worst this season. If ECM was 0.50”+ and HRRR was like 0.05”, I know I’d be nervous, ha.

As long as these random OP runs continue to show a burial with frequent snows and a gradient finally lowering south… we’ll get there. Wild how this winter seems to have such stark latitude gradient boundaries between the haves and have nots. That 18z GFS run was closer to including more of the forum. Just keep bringing the gradient south (in the means) needs to be the mantra.