powderfreak

As usual a blend, lol. GGEM and Euro had the axis correct but were too wet. GFS was too far south but had the lighter QPF right. The snow maps as expected proved too high as I think it was under 10:1 ratios. My yard feels like 6-7:1 wet, ha.

Yeah there’s water in this. Gonna get crunchy when temps drop tonight.

3000ft… 6” 1500ft… 5.5” 750ft… 4.0” (likely higher when snow stopped but measure when you can. It’s a very soaking wet 4” left at home.) Heres the 1500ft stack after some melting. Might’ve gotten 6” if measured earlier but still a very wet dense slug of snow. Had to think there was some good QPF in this. Im convinced it was a pretty widespread 6” snowfall locally (same QPF) had temps been colder but what’s on the ground is a a reflection of above freezing temps this afternoon. So nice to have everything covered white again. Good Advisory level snowfall.

3000ft… 6” 1500ft… 5.5” 750ft… 4.0” (likely higher when snow stopped but measure when you can. It’s a very soaking wet 4” left at home.) Heres the 1500ft stack after some melting. Might’ve gotten 6” if measured earlier but still a very wet dense slug of snow. Had to think there was some good QPF in this. So nice to have everything covered white again. Good Advisory level snowfall.

Paid radar scope on phone… like 10 bucks a year.

Up to 5-6” at the ski area, mostly done. About what was expected.

No it’s been gone for many months.

Mansfield Stake.

Had about 2.5”-3” when I left home 60-90 minutes ago. Probably in the 3-4” range now. Base of mountain is 4”.

Base of mountain is around 4”. I think generally 3-4” around Stowe right now? I saw about 6” on the Mansfield Stake, so 5” from this up top.

00z GFS highlighting the central/northern Greens through Thursday. Lower ratios than this will lower amounts but it'll be a nice period of wintery appeal.

That’s the goal this time of year. Nice WAA burst over cold type of event for interior SNE even if it melts later on. Just to have that winter scene. A sign of things to come.

Yeah I would think 12-18" is a bold call. Tomorrow is going to be dense either way. There's just not much chance of good snow growth, maybe aggregates from warmth? But usually just cold enough, with warm air advection aloft, is a higher density snow. The actually amount of snowfall in inches isn't as important as the total amount of frozen QPF in my opinion. There will be some higher ratio fluff on Thursday, but hard to forecast anything near 12-18" even up at Jay.

I agree with the BTV maps. I think mid-level and low-level thermal concerns will lead to less than 10:1 ratios. 0.40-0.80" SWE to 3-6", local 8" at summit level. Then colder thermals, better snow growth, and less moisture but adds 1-3" snowfall with snow showers into Thursday. These maps make sense given the overall look and evolution of snow types. From synoptic round one: Adding in meso-scale round two over a couple of days worth of snow showers.

It is but it’s also on your doorstep and not there yet . It is mis-leading because blue on the mix line is the same blue as way up north. Frozen can be much different than a wet sleety snow to a dry dendritic flakes. You just have to realize that map is also delayed, takes a minute to update, and treats all frozen the same for the most part.

That snow line is pretty far south. Nice to hear many are ripping snow this evening to start.

That's North Country winter vibes right there.

That's legit. Nice WAA burst moving through into the cold column.

00z HRRR... I'm thinking up this way 3-6" above 1,000-1,500ft with 1-3" below 1,000ft due to tomorrow's low level warmth. It'll start cold but I think after 2-3" below 1,000ft it'll start fighting itself. It's all about how fast one can measure after the temperatures go above 32F. Above 1,000-1,500ft should be cold enough to accumulate all day, so the 10:1 maps are likely closer to reality at elevation. In the valleys with lower ratios you can cut these numbers.

My sister in BGM… they are lower than the airport though around 1,000ft.

You’ve got some solid trips lined up! Big quality mountains.

29/21 Cold column. Sky had that distinct “snow sky” gray all afternoon.

Wakes you up better than coffee.

NAM soundings are toasty from 12z… even up here. Gets warm below 925mb tomorrow afternoon.

20F. Cold season is here.