powderfreak

Weenie GFS run for the ski areas and snowmobile crew at 12z for next 10-12 days.

Ha, not sure on totals but I think the ski areas up here have another decent run in them. Winter is never done in mid-February in the NNE mtns. Need some of this from Alta/Brighton/Snowbird/Solitude Cottonwoods area... Wasatch Mountains South of I-80-Western Uinta Mountains- Including the cities of Alta, Brighton, Mirror Lake Highway, and Moon Lake 318 AM MST Sun Feb 19 2023 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 3 feet possible, locally up to 40 inches Upper Cottonwoods.

That one is looking better for a more widespread snow into SNE interior.

GEFS mean probabilities still decently north over EPS. Would like this to wiggle south though… we all know the shift seems more likely northbound in close-in approach.

6z EPS individuals.

Looks like a textbook SWFE, with gradient around the Pike and heaviest frozen QPF from RT 2 up towards Dendy’s latitude. Lifting focused along and just north of the strongest mid-level gradient.

How was 2007-08 down in SE Mass? That seemed like a more interior high-end winter, but got there a different way through SWFE than nor’easters.

With that said, definitely an interesting observation today from Stowe. The value pass (Epic Local) was blacked out today and despite pretty full parking lots, the FourRunner Quad was empty. The beginner lifts at Spruce were packed though, and rentals had a record day. This was midday at Saturday on President’s Weekend at the lift that usually has the line… while the beginner lifts are packed. It got me thinking the more advanced skiers and riders probably understood the conditions and had more awareness to recent weather. But also, when you are new to skiing/riding, an infrequent visitor and with friends… you are likely to not care about conditions and the conditions honestly don’t matter as much too. A groomed beginner run is a groomed beginner run.

Good one! I always forget about them. Even Bolton Valley gets pretty busy during these holiday weeks, but nothing like the major resorts… but I bet Burke is probably one of the quietest. With all that said, a place that’s quiet/empty during President’s Weekend is great for the skier but can’t be good for longevity of sustainable business. Definitely a double edged sword.

That’s a nice Euro run this week. Best GFS run in a while too for the whole run.

7F. Pretty sure you could total your car hitting a snowbank along the road up here. The consistency of granite.

If I wasn’t in the mountains, I’d go ocean. I need some interesting geography or environment to interact with my passion for weather.

My wife barely puts up with it. Barely.

The forum gets to be almost like sports team divided… like forecasting is a team sport. No matter what guidance shows, if one has already picked a side of team to be a fan of, it’s not going to move the needle. The “yeah I know it shows this but I don’t believe it” type stuff is like why even look or discuss the models? If you only believe what you want to see and disbelieve everything else, then might as well just log off and do another hobby, ha.

Crazy gradient across New England from here to there. Jealous to be honest. Biting wind in the teens while soaked snowpack turns to glare ice with a dusting blowing around on it… sort of likes the warmer temps, ha.

18F, breezy and moderate snow. METAR KMVL 171920Z AUTO 33012G21KT 1/2SM SN VV011 M07/M10

Patrol ended up closing top of Spruce Peak due to ice and conditions. Nothing you can do when it drops 30 degrees fast and goes from 40F to 10F. Unless you take a groomer out at 1pm, it’s just done for the day.

One strong temp drop and flash freeze so far today. Was 38F up top this morning and is now 12F and falling. Base area was 37F and now 15F.

Yes that's exactly what I was getting at. But I never look at it as if anyone is making forecasts, its just discussing what the models show at the times. 00z came back south again.

Temp just started free falling about 20 min ago. Down to 21F now. 3600ft lost 10F down to 19F in like 15 minutes. True flash freeze stuff.

Light snow now. Icy out.

Find the FROPA. Cold oozing down the Champlain Valley and struggling over the Greens.

Quad went on hold 9:45am. But that’s not really noteworthy ha. It gets windy up there. Most recent summit ob is 51G75 so it’s cranking up there.

28F and freezing rain.

Ha that was what I was trying to say last night. They are a result of past environmental conditions, not a predictor of future conditions. Most things are like that. Flowers come up because it’s been warm enough to get the soil temp up, not that the flowers know it won’t get cold again, ha.