powderfreak

Great squalls this evening. Spicy drive home from Waterbury. Only a half inch of paste but stuck to the tree trunks and such, amazing how wintry a half inch can look when paste.

Good stretch of high-probability snow. Amounts are unknown but the chances of any snow falling during those forecast periods is solid. Detailed Forecast Tonight Partly cloudy, with a low around 13. Wind chill values as low as -2. Windy, with a northwest wind 24 to 29 mph decreasing to 13 to 18 mph after midnight. Tuesday Snow showers likely, mainly after 5pm. Increasing clouds, with a high near 26. Windy, with a south wind 7 to 17 mph increasing to 22 to 32 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. Tuesday Night Snow showers likely, mainly before 8pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 11. Wind chill values as low as -8. Windy, with a south wind 28 to 31 mph becoming west after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of around an inch possible. Wednesday Partly sunny, with a high near 17. Wind chill values as low as -9. Windy, with a northwest wind 21 to 26 mph decreasing to 13 to 18 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 37 mph. Wednesday Night Snow, mainly after 10pm. Low around 11. Northwest wind 7 to 11 mph becoming southeast after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible. Thursday Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 16. Southeast wind around 17 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Thursday Night Snow. Low around 1. Windy, with a south wind 24 to 29 mph becoming northwest after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 100%.

Well said. That’s been the vibe most of the winter to be honest. Been an adventure of a season. Great post.

The joke is true… Ask an AMWX poster if they would blindly sign up for a foot and a half of snowfall over a wintry stretch, and the first question is “how much did other areas get?”

Haha now that you say it, sort of looks like his nightmare he talks about. Something like he’d rather get 6” if others get none, over maxes south and north while suffering to 18”.

lol It would be nice though.

That GFS run is forum nirvana. From South Coast to Cape Code to PWM to BTV. I mean I can’t think of a better forum wide run.

1-3” seems like a reasonable bet from GFS, Reggie, HRRR etc. But can certainly see a path towards 3-6” like NAM/3KM/HERPIES. Be nice to see the CT peeps get a win. Interesting little critter.

Dippin dots (graupel) showers this afternoon. Been pouring graupel at times in short duration near 40F. Very autumn/spring vibe… dark almost convective sky.

You tried to give a dig to a degreed Met offering long range ensemble guidance… and got pushback. Take the licks like a champ, ha.

I didn’t think of you at all, you didn’t overreact or break a laptop . The concern is definitely north mid-level trends. Concern is different than overreacting. But again, just busting balls. We are all jokesters and good sports. GFS had a nice one for you guys early next week.

This winter has done a number on folks, I get that too. But ironically it seems the ones that keep saying they are completely done with winter, find a way to melt each time. Then again it’s like sports fans… can say however many times they aren’t following the team anymore but then go ballistic at every blown game, missed shot, etc.

The forum may have overreacted a bit at 6z? Shocking.

GEFS are further south than they were yesterday. Dampens out the operational swings. Yesterday’s 12z Today’s 6z

Yeah I don’t see much change in past 48-72 hours to be honest as a collective. Toggle back two days ago. Seems like we all wanted it to get as far south as possible in that range knowing it would come back up.

One man’s crap is another’s treasure. It’s exactly where it was two days ago.

Whatever it did, it seemed to work out anyway.

HERPES goes nuts over SNE at end of its run (48 hours). That would extrapolate nicely on that axis.

Yeah I could certainly see it go from heavy thump to long duration light/moderate snow, especially the trailing energy up north. Could see like 8” over 24 hours up here instead of 6-10” thump.

Looks like the upper level wave is opening up too as it moves through the Ohio Valley… some of the earlier runs had it more consolidated and closer to closed off. That probably keeps it flatter rather than amplifying.

GEFS mean actually went north from the 6z mean for snowfall. Meanwhile the EPS ticked ever so slightly south at 12z from 6z.

Yeah for sure, just busting your balls. It's just hard to truly grasp that environment up there is what I try to convey. Like despite the god awful pattern the past few weeks and occasional torches, the snowpack hasn't lost anything since January, if anything it's up a couple inches. Even seeing the massive red anomalies and huge positive departures just aren't enough to move the needle downward up there. It really takes until March/April for climo to start to try and dent that snowpack up there in a significant way.

The comment wasn’t about where climo sits though, no one says it’s a banner winter… it was about the notion of tossing in the towel and thinking things peaked in January for a location that has like a 33F average high the second week of April. That 43” is the consistency of a paved parking lot right now. No settling going to be happening so a nice launch board.

Peak was in January

Wild gradient on the ICON.