powderfreak

All this beer spilled on a Florida highway this morning. Think of how many drunk posts that might have supplied the forum?

Looks like a widespread 0.50”+ possible on most models from Canada through the SNE Islands. Much different than the summer months of isolated events. The jet is active.

Yeah, I grabbed a quick hike to enjoy the two hours of sunshine before the next system moves in. It's that time of year where clouds often win out. Was a beautiful evening though, pretty warm for the time of year up high in the upper 50s when I was there. Interesting summit temps today... stuck in mid-40s under the inversion until this afternoon and then the right when it broke the temps shot up into the low 60s. Almost a 20F gain with the inversion breaking mid-afternoon.

BTV has some graphics in their Local Studies and also Event Summaries for upslope. Most of it is for the Greens but some of the stuff is more basic and could be applied elsewhere. This is one such study, the Froude study: https://www.weather.gov/media/erh/ta2015-05.pdf Blocked flow, critical flow, unblocked flow.

Beautiful now. Ha. Full sun and clear skies.

62/54 and OVC 021 Fail at a mostly sunny day with temps hitting the 70s. Maybe we get a late day bump from some clearing but it’s that time of the year where the inversion seems to win if moisture is trapped under it.

Almost melting steel with that heat index? That’d be a tough day.

Low cloud deck all day at the mountain. Low solar angle, little mixing. Moisture seems real stubborn. Not sure we go full sun. As Dendrite said, maybe like 6pm before sun goes down, ha.

Still low clouds, must and drizzle. Need sun. Not even cold either. 57F. Just stuck in no sun 55-65F purgatory.

Only around 0.15 here today after sunrise. Just an all day drizzle and mist that would occasionally hit -RN. It looked like areas southeast and southwest of here blossomed nicely with the ULL. 52-55F area wide in NW New England., with dews equal to temps… it’s still not fall/autumn cold even after the cold front.

Sorry to hijack the Tropical thread with snow stuff. I recognize it. That's step one to realizing you have a problem. This is the Mount Washington Avalanche Center advisory for 10/26/2005. It was mid-winter in late October 2005 for the mountains. 72" of snowfall on the month and 26" of water. Good grief. Hurricane Wilma injecting a trough with moisture... nor'easter crushes the mountains. 9:21 a.m., Wednesday, October 26, 2005 3 weeks ago I never would of thought our first 5 scale Advisory would start the season with such a bang. However, 27.5-inch (70cm)snowstorms with high winds can change conditions pretty quickly in the topography of the Presidentials. The summit just broke some significant records over the past 24 hours. First they have broken the snowiest October on record with 72.2" (183cm) and even more impressive then that they surpassed their wettest month ever with 26.79" (68cm)of water. This beat the great Feburuay of 1969, a winter of legend. I have never seen October storms make such an impact on the mountain. I always look forward to snow, but it could be a very long season. Maybe we'll break our record of 200 advisories out in one season. REMEMBER STRANGE ATYPICAL WEATHER MAKES STRANGE ATYPICAL AVALANCHES! Tuckerman and Huntington Ravines have HIGH avalanche danger. Natural and human triggered avalanches are likely on a variety of aspects and angles. Unstable slabs are likely and travel in avalanche terrain is not recommended. As is typical during early season the variability of surface conditions and stability is great. Undoubtedly new snowfields have grown but are yet unseen due to whiteout conditions. So today's HIGH posting will have instabilities true to the definition. But these conditions aren't as widespread as a mid-winterstorm of 27.5 inches (70cm) when all snowfields are already established. There are numerous locations such as the top of Hillman's Highway that have unstable conditions, but have very limited paths established so avalanche activity will have short runs. Other areas like Left gully are just the opposite where full snow run-outs are already established. This means avalanches may run their full "mid- winter" distances. While in 5 scale we will issue a new Advisory daily while a General Advisory will be updated as needed. So check back daily. The 27.5 inches (70cm) of new snow on the summit fell over the past 30 hours and came in with a high moisture content melting down to 4.43 inches (11.25cm). This creates a high density average of 16% snow. As this slow moving Nor'easter moves up into the Maritimes today wrap around moisture will continue the winter storm warning for the mountains. Snow is expected to continue and turn upslope later and become more sporadic. Several more inches should be expected. Eventually later today winds will shift from the current NNE to the NW. When the shift begins it should proceed fairly rapidly as the nearby Low moves off to the NE. The GFS model has been fairly true and predicts this shift to occur early this afternoon around 1pm. The wind velocity which subsided overnight and have begun to pick up again. They are anticipated to be pushing 75mph (120kph) late in the day and should make things very interesting.

Hurricane Wilma pumped moisture into a strong upper level trough and dropped 12-24” across the Greens. October 2005 was a beast for snowfall and precip. This was like the 3rd snowstorm for the mountains. I skied Killington on opening day, with like 50 trails open on natural snow. Dense settled snow depths of 20-30” were present in late October at relatively low elevation.

October 2005 style.

What was different between this and the 2-3 days of rain in CT only two weeks ago? It was a pretty humid, convective rain too, yesterday was a series of t-storms. Honestly seemed pretty similar. We had been one of the drier zones despite over the last 6 weeks, so it was needed rain. Despite a high number of days with measurable water. All I know is after a few months of no widespread big precipitation events, there have been two now in the past 3 weeks. One in SNE, one in NNE. Both multi-day events. That’s some pattern change indicators.

3.02” here.

Did you get golf in? Still misting and drizzle at times here. Ended up with 3.02” in two empties of the Stratus throughout the event. Has to be the largest precipitation event for here in a long time. This image was before today’s showers and not comparable to my total (taken after todays rain). Maybe another half inch with the FROPA later in the week… probably going to be the wettest week of the year, ha.

It can stop raining anytime. Up to nearly 3" since it started on Sunday.

Rainy weather but caught an attempt to develop a few kelvin helmholtz waves in a low level fog bank. I love when the atmosphere shows it's fluid tendencies.

That bolded is key. @tunafish nailed it with the "you can't arrest your way out of it." Some countries have capital punishment for drug offenses. That isn't where we want to go. It still doesn't solve the underlying issues of addiction.

I thought he was still here having a good time with his friends of 40 years? No one has updated us today on what he’s up to in life . Steady moderate rain continues, will clear 2.50” for this event past two days… and still some leftover showers tomorrow. Perfect long duration soaker mixed with some convective elements. Similar to the widespread event in SNE around Labor Day, but less extreme jackpot amounts. Can tell the seasons are changing with these higher synoptic rain events popping back up. Not all convection hit or miss. Larger precip shields.

Overall models did very well with a widespread 1.5”+ rain event in N/C VT with a good swath of 2”+ and locally up to 4”. And we should have some left over rain showers tomorrow too, but likely more in line with 0.1-0.3”. Three day rain event overall. Good soaking. I can’t remember the last time I saw the river “full”… not close to flooding at all but just full swift water from side to side.

Good catch, upgraded the Flood Warning to FFW? On Wunderground there are a lot of 3”+ amounts since midnight that doesn’t include anything yesterday.

There’s a swath right from Huntington through J.Spin through Waterbury (your area) over towards Cabot and south into Montpelier of widespread like 2.5-4.00” event totals. I was at 2.16” a little bit ago total. Missed the heaviest stuff today like 10 miles to the south. Can see the axis here:

Still could moderate for sure, but Ryan is just being a good MET and not going wild on a Day 5. Mid-60s in the valleys gets the point across after today. Highs will be lower than todays dew points in CT.

Be a stretch for you to hit 66F at your house on Friday given how it looks right now. I’d think low 60s at best, 40s at night. It could be enough for some to see the heat come on.