powderfreak

That definitely would sway the decision swiftly to get off the island. I was thinking of just adults trying to take care of themselves. Young kids, no thanks even in just a power outage, ha. Don’t put them in harms way.

Very enlightening climo discussion. Deep easterly flow events seem hit or miss in PVD/RI, but also never jackpots. Additionally, mid-level warmth is more likely to punch into the area. Low-level warmth is more likely to punch into the area. Developing Miller Bs are more likely to organize to the E or NE. Mid-level deformation is more likely to the west. Multiple reasons overlap. There’s a laundry list discussed here as to why the GON-PVD stretch ends up in the minimum. QPF and snow. I’d root for a deformation band right through PVD.

That makes a lot of synoptic sense too. Sometimes it’s just the slight difference between a more shredded radar and more congealed presentation as things move from one zone to another.

The weather weenie in me would stay. I’d roll that dice with how it looks. Place won’t get razed but might be a little interesting. Might be selfish but interesting weather is a strong pull.

Boom awesome, that’s the discussion detail I needed. It all makes sense. I think I was just balking at the standing wave being a climo normal pattern. Between the CCB and mid-level lift west also makes sense… you guys right on the coast are still pulling big QPF (even if low ratio) as it pivots on the coast… then the usual lighter/disjointed lift gap found in most storms between the CCB and the H6-H7 mid-level stuff. Looks like there’s a lot of reasons for GON-PVD-TAN line SE to have issues, ha. Cards stacked against them. I guess I never really looked at them as a “sinking air” on east flow type location.

What does RI downslope from on east flow? Sure every time a place gets less precipitation there was more sinking air there than other areas, I guess ties all of them together regardless of where on a map they are… but we can do better than that basic premise in trying to dissect it meteorologically. They are absolutely a lower snowfall area but for a variety of factors, mid-level dry slots, warmth punching north, proximity to warm water, etc. But does it stand out more than neighboring areas in like SE Mass I guess is what I’m struggling with meteorologically. If it’s normal climo, there should be an easy answer.

My brain is cramping trying to find the common ground of the same phenomena that affects RI and Brattleboro, VT. There are snow holes all around in most valleys, I mean I’m a precip hole relative to the mountain a few miles away. But what meteorologically would tie RI and Brattleboro together?

Yeah I was thinking I could see them getting mid-level dry slotted easier the further SE you are but that would apply to Mass too. I mean isn’t GON to PVD to TAN and SE of there the lowest snow climo in SNE? I guess I’d be curious QPF wise if there’s something long term that causes them to see less precip in coastal storms… because the discussion really comes down to QPF more than snowfall.

I’d like to see some other good examples because I think recency bias is just throwing up March 2013 and taking it as climo.

Only thing I could think of is coastal front in SE MA creating some sort of standing wave time and time again… but if they didn’t snow well in nor’easters and coastal storms, their seasonal numbers would stand out more IMO when compared with neighboring areas.

I’m more curious on how deep easterly flow screws RI? Yes, well aware of March 2013 but wasn’t that more fluke than climo?

It looks like there was quite a change there in mid-July at BDL at least (only one I looked at). He's not wrong that there was a change at least, I guess it's subjective to how people experience it. But all mins were largely 50s and 60s leading up through the 16th of July. Then starting on the 17th a clear stepwise increase in humidity as mins were 70+ every day after that. There's a very clear pattern shift in there.

That'd be legit for September 24.

Yeah we had 45F by like 8pm last night and it was 48F when I woke up. Temp leveled and rose with clouds/wind. I thought easily 30s was a lock at 8pm.

Pretty even spread in temps tonight. Mid-40s to mid/upper 50s depending on local factors. Both SNE and NNE.

45-46F for over the last hour… pesky breeze, maybe we hover in the low 40s later instead of radiational excellence. This evening was the first one for me where it felt like a true change. Back-broken jokes aside, for some reason today felt like a true stepping stone locally on the climatological stairway downward.

Yeah but yet some wore hoodies and bundled up it seems? Definitely wasn’t cool… even normal temps mid-summer can require A/C. I always assume we are talking departures with “cool” or “warm”… a warm or torch January that’s still below freezing in the means isn’t literally warm.

Good point. Looking back it seems the low humidity helped large diurnal ranges and kept us from seeing too high departures in July. The hot days cooled off enough. Then in August when the dews came it went the other way and we got smoked on the overnight mins being so elevated.

I didn’t realize July was only +0.5 up here… I assumed a higher departure. June and July were essentially normal as a whole… then August torched at +3.5. 45F outside at 8pm. Chilly. Definitely going 30s tonight.

June was beautiful. About average, maybe -1? But that’s not super chilly because it’s June. That’s like 75/45. July was nice for first half then ran off like 6 weeks of heat. But July was solidly above normal and August too. Its like one normal month and two above normal if one were to look back on this summer in 30 years.

What? It was so cold you had a hoodie on until late July?

Yeah I don’t see how those two statements have any relevance… some of our warmest winters happen to have freakish early and late season snows. Just because it snows in October and early May it might be a long “snow season”… but it doesn’t imply anything about what happened between those two events.

I’m not sure I see the relationship between shorter time between freezing temps and how hot or cold the summer was? No where in there did it allude to summer temps, just that it was shorter growing season at the summits.

Whiteface in the Adirondacks joined MWN in the below freezing club.

12:10pm 57/37 Now this is a fall air mass.