powderfreak

Would be quite the snower in the winter. Base of ski area at a 2.64” storm total, and running 0.19”/hr upslope and gusting 30 NW. Should have some upslope flow of some sort over the next like 24 hours. 1,500ft on east slope of Spine has had 1”+ more water than a few miles away here in town. Office might beat home by 2” water by the end tomorrow late day. This radar in winter makes the ski community feel things. Standing wave from Spine wringing moisture out.

Intriguing for higher elevations tomorrow. GFS has SLK at 32F in snow it looks like.

Roughly 1.20” here so far but the main conveyor has been Spine west into Champlain Valley. BTV area stations around 2” now.

I don’t think I’ll ever forget the noise from a meteor that was caught on the BTV airport cam… was walking the dog in Stowe. Dog hated it, didn’t know what was happening. I figured F-35 Green Mtn Boys were strafing.

We did get 31F up top but it set its latest date on record back to 1956.

It’s actually not that late yet for snow. It is extremely late for first 32F and lower. Theres certainly been years into November without even summit snows. Usually first picnic table snows here are sometime during the second half of October. The snow level has been in the 5,000ft range a couple times, hitting MWN and touching Whiteface summit. But hasn’t dropped low enough to get the 4,000ft range.

Thought never crossed my mind. Nope. Ha. Perfect synoptic evolution to get croaked up here.

To me, that is the biggest indication of warmth. It effects the overnight lows significantly, while more moisture leads to clouds and can cap the daytime highs. You end up with a healthy, above normal temperature regime in the means and one that’s less perceptible. The natural systems, vegetation, environment, all recognize it a bit more than us humans who judge temperatures based on our daytime experience.

The moisture levels and PWATS have been running high for a long time in the means. These systems want to precipitate, especially if there is any phasing or synoptic upper level support. We've had dew points in the 40s for what seems like a couple weeks now, ha. The seasonal progression downward of dew points has stalled for quite a while. We should be seeing 30s and even some 20s dews on a fairly regular basis by now up north. They are what allow the temperatures to drop. There's been no big, dry, autumnal HP moving through yet. The atmosphere continues to be primed for rain/precipitation. Hopefully we can keep this going when temperatures are cold enough to support snow.

The number of synoptic big rainers this warm season has been impressive. Another decent 1-2" rainer possible over a good sized area, with localized 4" amounts? So far this year when the models show good rains, someone can get smoked in a localized area. If the models start showing jackpots of 3-4"+ this season, it has meant that a locality will realize that somewhere. GFS EURO RGEM (because it's the 18z run). NAM

Don’t know really but the mountain has always used November 1st as the time when it’s plausible to make snow and have a chance it sticks around up high. Even if we get temps in October it’s usually not our game seeing as chances are high it’ll melt out. It still can happen in November but to me, 11/1 is the start of snowmaking season when temps allow for a prolonged period (like more than 6 hours, system isn’t going on for like a 3-hr early AM chance).

Yeah and this warmth has no bearing on starting the snow season either. All it takes is one good trough and could have widespread snow ahead of schedule in the first half of November. Sometimes we see that, record warmth goes straight to a big snow event. October 2011 was like a monster snowstorm for south/central in a sea of warmth I believe?

Good call, didn’t even notice but no way those spots were 32F or lower in that August. Weird they are recent years too. Bogus COOP data?

So not all that normal?

Again I’m not posting this with an agenda (feel like that’s required now when talking warmth), but our average first freeze is Sept 30th in Morrisville-Stowe. Latest 32F is October 20, 2005. That’s tomorrow. We haven’t been below 39F. I believe Mansfield was record latest too. It is very late, record late up north.

I truly think people were just too early with the assessment. We continue to get decent orange and yellow now in the understory, even after the crowns have lost many leaves.

Ok yeah the trolling for sure if that's what it is. I just look at it like people are posting different things. Get a 300hr snow map, get a 300hr torch map, whatever. I guess I have been naive with how loaded the whole discussion has gotten. I just like looking at the stats and seeing how we are going. And it's been warm. Not that it's good or bad or whatever. Just is what it is.

Ahhh yeah there seems to be some knee jerk reaction that’s pre-loaded. I separate all that out and just look at what the weather is doing and has done. Not what caused it or blame or action needed. That does sound like it’s probably a lot of it though now that you mention it. The reaction feels overblown to the statement, like this is what the response is: “Man, this October has been near record warm, we just can’t cool off. +6.5 in the means.” ”Did you just say you wanted to levy a carbon tax on my snowmobile?! Take away my oil, gas and truck? It’s cyclical dumbass.”

Do you interpret warm talk as people moaning? I never really did but it seems like you think every time it’s mentioned it’s a bad thing. Is it better phrased like the bolded above? Nice lil warm up, feels good this time of year? I don’t get the angst with mentioning that its warm when it’s been that way.

45F here…. Rack up another +10 on the min. We can’t seem to get dews under like 43F, just keeps recycling maritime puke and stratus into here. Never see the sun either.

Some nice yellow color in there.

Fire up the snow guns, ha.

We still haven’t had a below normal day at MVL. +6.5F on the month. Max of 87F during the record torch. Our average low is 35F. The coldest it’s gotten all month is 39F. This has to be near record warm or the record for October so far.

Yeah that was all-time October max temps up here from valleys to summits. Though I think MWM fell a degree short. Super impressive heat overall.

We all make life choices… lol. Part of me thinks the Cape would be at least interesting for wind and nor’easters. I could trick myself into interesting weather out on the cape, watching the ocean, etc. Stuff me in like PVD and then I’d crack.