nj2va
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Everything posted by nj2va
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Definition of a blindside hit and interference.
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Reaves is such a goon. Hopefully Wilson isn’t seriously hurt.
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Dtk posted a few pages back that the mageval.ncep.noaa site is actually the FV3 when you click GFS.
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FV3 is out on the NOAA website: http://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-area.php?group=Model Guidance&model=gfs&area=namer&ps=area 0.25” QPF to DC.
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I’d take this and run. 2-3” in Arlington. 6” just west of EZF.
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Precip to the M/D line at 120.
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It’s early in the GFS run but confluence pressing down stronger vs 18z. We’ll see how it plays out.
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I wish that was the GFS or Euro at 84H. You’d think a storm was ready to hit DC with that look.
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Eeyore is here!
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I wish Mitch would come back
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At least I just poured a nice Malbec....HH GFS be damned.
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Yeah, 18z GEFS isn’t pretty based on the mean QPF and snowfall. ~0.3” QPF and 1.5” snowfall on the mean. Compared to 0.8” and 6” at 12z.
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I don’t see it on TT or weathernerds
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It’s certainly becoming more and more believable. If we can’t get the confluence to relax, this scenario seems to be our next best shot. Ensembles have been slowly catching on.
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I actually think that was one of the better GFS (non FV3) runs we’ve had (except for the blip 18z yesterday). Yes, trying to time a phase is tricky but all signs point to confluence over NE being too strong to overcome with the initial Vort. We need the feature diving in from the plains to phase and bring it up the coast. GFS was close. Onto the GEFS!
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Nice! Thanks Yoda
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This is what will bring the Euro home for a Mid-Atlantic snowstorm.
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Exactly. Which is why being ‘in the game’ (central VA hit) is important since I think some of the ridging out in front of the storm is probably a tad underdone.
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That’s a pretty healthy stream of moisture flowing in on the STJ into our storm on the Euro.
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I’m still waiting for my 24” of snow the Euro gave me 24 hours out from the March event.
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Sh&t just got real...Coastal posted in the Lr thread.
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At least we can enjoy the FV3 for 30 more minutes until the Euro shows no precip getting north of Raleigh.
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Yeesh, almost 2" of QPF in DC all snow on the 12z FV3.
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At least looking at the snowfall maps, GEFS mean improved in DC. 6" now into DC. 2" line up into Central NJ again. ETA: Mean QPF at 0.8" for DC...hard to tell with having to zoom in on the Weathermodel maps. 0.5" line at the M/D border heading NE from there.
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Lots of moving parts. If all things equal in the GFS 12z and that lobe was 100 miles north, DC would be in the game. Good, early test of the models.
