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nj2va

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Everything posted by nj2va

  1. nj2va
    0.1” is up in central NJ...totals are heavier as you travel west. Lots of breathing room on the 18z imo.
  2. nj2va
    Pretty uniform 0.2" along 95 from south of EZF up to Baltimore. Higher amounts (0.3") just west of 95. Yes. Things are aligning for a nice advisory event at this point. A great turnaround from a week ago.
  3. nj2va
    18z Euro through 90 (end of run); storm is still going so these aren't storm totals. 2-4" for NOVA/DC/Central MD. 1-2" for NE MD and Eastern Shore. Mixing for RIC as the surface and 850 lines are just northwest of RIC by 90H. All snow everywhere north/west of that. eta: H96 at 12z had the 2" line SW of DC so an improvement for NOVA/DC/Balt.
  4. nj2va
    That's about as surprising as saying its hot in July.
  5. nj2va
    I believe the control is run with the same data as the OP but at a lower resolution. Ensembles are run at lower resolution but with slightly different data inputs.
  6. nj2va
    Great call by you and WxUSAF analyzing the upper levels and seeing the improvement. I'd say this supports that.
  7. nj2va
    2-4" is a good call right now for DC.
  8. nj2va
    Winter has already shown its hand. PAC puke.
  9. nj2va
    Snow squall pushing through Rosslyn. Getting us ready for the weekend.
  10. nj2va
    I wish I had 15 beers reading his posts.
  11. nj2va
    wait will central va jackpot? i can't tell reading the model thread.
  12. nj2va
    Yeah me too...theres been a signal since D15 if you can buy a signal even from that range .
  13. nj2va
    Yeah, slightly less amped than 0z and confluence is a touch stronger. Stops at 90 so can't so the panels that would matter. EPS will be out soon which go to 144.
  14. nj2va
    Seems models starting to hone in on at least an advisory level event for the area. Potentially more but too soon to say.
  15. nj2va
    Euro showing 2 runs in a row with WSW-snowfall for the Beltway inside of 120 hours.
  16. nj2va
    Yes for DC/NOVA/MD. Bump north on the 0.5” line (12z had it near DC). Drier down south over Central and Southern VA where 12z had widespread 0.75”-1”+.
  17. nj2va
    It’s a great run. On SV, Baltimore is on the 4” line, 6” line is at EZF. 2” line is way up in central NJ.
  18. nj2va
    Through 123, 0.5” QPF is up near Baltimore running E/W. Narrow band of 0.75”+ just north of RIC and just south of EZF.
  19. nj2va
    About 5” mean on the snowfall maps. No shutouts so I’ll take that. Not sure what to think considering the Euro at 18z and the GFS at 00z. Seems like we’ll see snow this weekend so that’s a good thing.
  20. nj2va
    If anyone thinks GFS isn’t a good hit, you’re crazy. 4-6” pretty much region wide. Most of this forum wrote off winter less than a week ago.
  21. nj2va
    I’d always take my chances with an amped storm with a 1040H north of us. But I don’t buy a solution that flips DC to plain rain. We’re always flirting with the mix line along 95 so just something to expect here.
  22. nj2va
    1) FV3 has a bias of overamplitude 2) after a front end thump of 2-4/3-5” of snow 3) great way to start off the pattern flip
  23. nj2va
    I remember that...terrible. I love that 1040 H moving in tandem with the low on the NAM. Welcome to the new and improved 09/10.
  24. nj2va
    Who will be the first to worry that we’ll end up with an amped storm that cuts to WV and rains on us with a foot in PA based on the end of the NAM?
  25. nj2va
    I was thinking the same thing. Classic look there.
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