nj2va
-
Posts
15,342 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by nj2va
-
Oh, that #$#%ing storm.
-
I thought this area did quite well in the January '96 blizzard? Or do I have the wrong storm?
-
Winter automatically would get a B at least.
-
The real way it’ll go down is we’ll get a -NAO in early November to give us the hope of a front loaded winter. Dec 1 flips to a +NAO and holds until March.
-
I’ll go 5-15” at home and 60-80” in McHenry. Both below average.
-
Raining and feels like Kauai outside.
-
Multiple warnings in western MD (too bad I'm home in Arlington....) and WV.
-
Famous last words
-
Here's one of the cams in Chicago to watch as the line approaches: https://www.earthcam.com/usa/illinois/chicago/field/?cam=fieldmuseum
-
For this area, I thought the storm tonight was a good one. Gusty winds, lots of T&L, torrential rain. Just had the western tail of a storm that passed through Alexandria too.
-
Dark as night. Wind kicking up. Thunder.
-
That cell over Manassas is expanding to the SE...might clip Arlington/Alexandria.
-
Severe thunderstorm watch just issued. Get ready for a few drops of rain!
-
That’s just terrible what’s going on down in MS. I hope everyone is safe. I’m sure an unpopular opinion here but I’d prefer we see 0 tornadoes.
-
Had an impressive line of severe storms hit around 2a here. Lots of T&L, torrential rain, gusty winds, and hail.
-
Glad y’all are getting snow!
-
Can we start a thread for this? It'd be helpful to separate this threat from the LR discussion.
-
The only thing I’m tracking is next weekend’s potential storm. I’ve seen enough patterns D10-D15 change on a dime on the ensembles, both for better and for worse to get myself invested in hoping for an amazing pattern. January looked dreadful a few days ago and now we are hopefully looking at a flip but I still don’t put much faith in D10+ looks. I mean I’m rooting for a KU pattern just as much as the next weenie but I’m keeping my expectations in check.
-
Just another OP solution 150H+ out...shifts will happen so we’ll see what the GEFS says. Considering where people expected to be 4 days ago, I’m happy we’re tracking something other than 85 degrees. I’ll be in McHenry next weekend for this so rooting for high as impact as possible.
-
As you (or PSU or CAPE ?) posted earlier, our big events in blocking tend to happen as the NAO flips to + so this seems to fit that.
-
In my experience, CAD is generally undermodeled, especially at long leads. If you go back to the ice storm that happened in western MD a few weeks back, the exact same thing happened out there — LR models underplayed the cold hanging on and as the storm got into the short range, the frozen kept hanging on longer & longer on the models. Obviously each setup is different but always best to look at climo & model “bias” when analyzing an OP run 160H+ out.
-
Usual caveats apply...OP run...D10/11 blah blah blah. I can’t tell though...is that truly a -NAO?
-
GEPS (not the best ensemble but hey, why not?) trying for a ridge bridge in way out in la la land. Would help displace the TPV south and help build heights into GL. Drink up, weenies.
-
Even with the torch period coming up (agree with you on 95/east making a run at 70+), what I like seeing is the cold to our north. Seems likely we’d see that shift east with a more favorable upper air pattern & I always like seeing snowpack building to our NW in Canada. This is probably totally weenie rationale, but I feel like that helps reinforce cooler air if we can get flows out of the NW.
-
Yeah, agree that things aren’t looking good for them. I’m at about 16” in McHenry this year where we average ~110” a year. We spent a week there over New Years and went skiing a few times. Not many trails open (~12 or so I think) & a sustained period of low 50s again like it was between Christmas & the 30th will really hurt. But any snow is good and will help them rebuild what they lost during the mild period before NYE (even if its gone after the next warm period).
