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nj2va

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Everything posted by nj2va

  1. nj2va
    “Hey the NAM is a terrible model. Hey, did I show you what the NAM just showed?”
  2. nj2va
    Seems like its only the NAM saying that.
  3. nj2va
    @C.A.P.E. wwwwooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo. You couldn't have drawn better looking panels than the weeklies.
  4. nj2va
    18z has been kind. An hour until the Euro hopefully continues that.
  5. nj2va
    Long duration, light snow event would be my guess.
  6. nj2va
    That is a great map in my opinion at least looking at NOVA/DC/etc
  7. nj2va
    @Potvinsux Nice! I'm happy the mountains have cashed in the last few days...perfect upslope conditions and they'll do well this weekend, especially Snowshoe. I'm heading to McHenry tomorrow, can't wait. I've been watching the cameras at my house the last few days as the snow has piled up there.
  8. nj2va
    Through 96, the 0.5" has come north to the very S tip of PWC along I95. 0.25" is just north of DC.
  9. nj2va
    Yikes, that sucks. Glad you're better. I fully expect you to bring home the best model runs for us today.
  10. nj2va
    Nice downward trajectory of the SOI average and today's value is -7.30. https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/
  11. nj2va
    They did break our way. We went from shutout to a light event.
  12. nj2va
    Yeah, as LP08 mentioned a bit more confluence so its squashing the flow but its another run with general 2-4” throughout the area through Sunday at 7pm (when the run ends). It seems we’re getting locked on a good advisory event to kick off the pattern change.
  13. nj2va
    Don’t agree with the wetter aspect. Through 96, 0.25 is just south of Baltimore. 0.5” is south of EZF.
  14. nj2va
    Got it now. Sure, always best to be skeptical until you see snow falling from the sky. But hard to bet against the Euro within 100 hours of the storm. Also starting to see the goalposts tighten on the other models. I think we’re in a good spot.
  15. nj2va
    My sleep schedule is going to be so effed if we go straight into tracking a potential storm next weekend too....wouldn’t change it for anything though!
  16. nj2va
    2 minutes apart but worlds apart.
  17. nj2va
    I guess I’m not really following this...are you saying the Euro isn’t a good look? Last few runs have fluctuated between 0.4-0.6” QPF. EPS continues to improve.
  18. nj2va
    Absolutely. Euro, GFS, and UK all show some room for improvement...add in the north shift within 48 hours and can’t help but feel 2-4” may be too low a forecast for DC.
  19. nj2va
    @Bob Chill you got your wish for a slight bump in UKMET QPF. Looks like the Euro.
  20. nj2va
    I remember posting about the D15 EPS signal last week for that time period...it had an usually strong signal on the MSLP maps for that far out. Obviously don’t want to get ahead of ourselves, but somewhere along the EC there’s going to be a significant winter event during that time period. Also, amazing what blocking can do to help the models hone in on periods of interest.
  21. nj2va
    A trend for what? An advisory snow event for the area? Yes.
  22. nj2va
    0.5” just south of DC. 0.3” at M/D line. I’d take it and run. I do not understand the panic from the GFS.
  23. nj2va
    Live view of GFS analysis. It’s bad. It’s good. It’s bad. It’s good. It’s bad. It’s good.
  24. nj2va
    Is there a possibility of that? Absolutely given some of these ensemble members but 2-4” seems a good forecast right now. Could easily see that bump to 3-6” but would need to see some more consistency in the models before I buy into 3-6”, as Bob mentioned earlier.
  25. nj2va
    Slight bump north of the 0.5” QPF line on the 18z EPS. 0.5” is now in between Balt/DC. Also 0.75” area over ORF/extreme SE VA which wasn’t there at 12z....perhaps a few more members than 12z with the tucked in coastal?
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