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mob1

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Everything posted by mob1

  1. mob1
    More like 7-9". It's confined to a relatively small area though, and looks like a classic winter norlun through with the isobars elongated towards the NW. Those suckers can generate a ton of forcing but are notoriously fickle and hard to pin down. More often than not, the axis of the heaviest precipitation ends up a bit NE of where it was modeled.
  2. mob1
    Yep, looks like a more realistic version of the NAM.
  3. mob1
    Absolutely pouring here for the past 20 minutes. These last few bands are going to add up quick.
  4. mob1
    Just crossed 2 inches for the event. It's been a slow bleed to get there so definitely not concerned about flooding.
  5. mob1
    We'll see if Ophelia's remnant low does indeed regenerate a bit to give parts of our region flooding rains. Models have hinted at it on and off, but for now it looks like a long shot.
  6. mob1
    These are a bit further east than the bands last night so it might clip a larger portion of the island.
  7. mob1
    Over 1.5" now with about the same amount left to go if models are to be believed.
  8. mob1
    1.27" here and there seems to be some nice bands that should rotate off the ocean in the next few hours. We'll see what tomorrow brings, but I'll probably end up with around 2 inches or so which is more than enough.
  9. mob1
    Now the GFS comes in with this. It's just impossible to get any kind of agreement and/or consistency from models anymore.
  10. mob1
    It's fine where it's now, we were discussing the shelf waters as it gets closer to the coast. Either way, should be a fairly steady state from now through landfall (might strengthen a bit in the next few hours but should weaken a bit as it approaches the coast).
  11. mob1
    You're coming on a bit strong. Relax, it's just a storm and the reality is that 78-80 degree SST's are borderline at best. Recon recording unflagged SFMR of 70 knots should be enough for an upgrade (though they didn't do it at 5).
  12. mob1
  13. mob1
  14. mob1
    Maybe some kind of sting jet on the southern quadrant. It's actually quite common with subtropical "half-canes" at this latitude.
  15. mob1
    Recon so far has found flight level winds of 62 knots, surface at 48 knots and extrapolated pressure of 991 mb or so.
  16. mob1
    Verbatim, the GFS has a much more significant system the second time around. Some really strong winds and a ton of rain (it also coincides with the full moon). It's in fantasy range though, I can barely get it right 24 hours out.
  17. mob1
    It ultimately comes back for another round. Interesting evolution, it'll be fun to see what happens.
  18. mob1
    GFS and CMC also have this meandering around all week but way further south than the ICON. With a stout blocking pattern, it would make sense that it'll hang around somewhere.
  19. mob1
    For sh!ts and giggles, look the entire ICON run. It has rain throughout the entire run.
  20. mob1
    Has the majority of the rain in round 2 (and lots of it).
  21. mob1
    Cape Hatteras is gusting to 31 Beaufort Smith Field (KMRH) now gusting to 33 mph as well and Cherry Point to 37. Should pick up later this afternoon. Aso, Buoy off the coast of Carolina gusting to 62 mph.
  22. mob1
    Almost every model now takes it from about 1010 mb at initiation to sub 1000 mb tomorrow at noon or so. It'll be interesting to see if it becomes vertically stacked overnight.
  23. mob1
    Thanks for pointing it out. I corrected it.
  24. mob1
    RGEM has a nice region-wide soaking
  25. mob1
    Tropical storm warnings issued to just offshore the jersey coast. Local HWO outlines heavy rain, gusty winds, coastal flooding and beach erosion.
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