mob1
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Everything posted by mob1
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Now the GFS comes in with this. It's just impossible to get any kind of agreement and/or consistency from models anymore.
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It's fine where it's now, we were discussing the shelf waters as it gets closer to the coast. Either way, should be a fairly steady state from now through landfall (might strengthen a bit in the next few hours but should weaken a bit as it approaches the coast).
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You're coming on a bit strong. Relax, it's just a storm and the reality is that 78-80 degree SST's are borderline at best. Recon recording unflagged SFMR of 70 knots should be enough for an upgrade (though they didn't do it at 5).
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Tropical Storm Ophelia—Tropical Storm Warning for Coastal Mid-Atlantic
mob1 replied to WxWatcher007's topic in Mid Atlantic
Maybe some kind of sting jet on the southern quadrant. It's actually quite common with subtropical "half-canes" at this latitude. -
Recon so far has found flight level winds of 62 knots, surface at 48 knots and extrapolated pressure of 991 mb or so.
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Verbatim, the GFS has a much more significant system the second time around. Some really strong winds and a ton of rain (it also coincides with the full moon). It's in fantasy range though, I can barely get it right 24 hours out.
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It ultimately comes back for another round. Interesting evolution, it'll be fun to see what happens.
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GFS and CMC also have this meandering around all week but way further south than the ICON. With a stout blocking pattern, it would make sense that it'll hang around somewhere.
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For sh!ts and giggles, look the entire ICON run. It has rain throughout the entire run.
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Has the majority of the rain in round 2 (and lots of it).
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Cape Hatteras is gusting to 31 Beaufort Smith Field (KMRH) now gusting to 33 mph as well and Cherry Point to 37. Should pick up later this afternoon. Aso, Buoy off the coast of Carolina gusting to 62 mph.
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Almost every model now takes it from about 1010 mb at initiation to sub 1000 mb tomorrow at noon or so. It'll be interesting to see if it becomes vertically stacked overnight.
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Thanks for pointing it out. I corrected it.
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RGEM has a nice region-wide soaking
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Tropical storm warnings issued to just offshore the jersey coast. Local HWO outlines heavy rain, gusty winds, coastal flooding and beach erosion.
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The pre could have some gusty winds with it as the isobars are elongated northward and has a decent pressure gradient (yes yes, I have a wind fetish).
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Depending on how strong invest 99L gets, there can be some decent winds along the coast as there's a pretty tight pressure gradient between the LP and strong high to the north-northeast.
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06Z Euro has a deeper storm now
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ICON is a region-wife soaker as well. We'll see if the more reliable models follow suit.
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Love the difference for a 3.5 day forecast. If this was a winter storm it'd create some serious chaos.
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High SRH values and backed flow. In general, the eastern part of any significant low pressure system has the highest probabilities for severe weather (that's obviously broad-brushing it a bit, but you get the idea).
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1.53" for the day now. Not too shabby.
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Bango and Augusta gusting to 47 and 49 mph respectively. Overall, pretty meh event.
