Roger Smith

A separate concern for heavy snow in south-central VA would be phase given that the uppers never become better than marginal, and the depth of cold air is not dramatic. I expect places like RIC could see enough precip for 10" snowfalls but how much will lie on the ground at any given time as snow? Maybe 2-4" ... somewhat higher regions further west might do better with their ratios. If the storm does jog north and overspreads DCA to BWI then snow ratios should be better since the storm would have to tackle a colder air mass in place there. So the odds on all snow would be good if there's anything to be had at all. My current view is 30% chance measurable for DCA, 15% for IAD to BWI, 50-50 in southern suburbs. Best snowfall locations likely to be near NC-VA border west of Danville.

First sets of anomalies and forecasts ... ________________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA _8th ______ (7d) __________+0.3 _--1.3 _+0.2 ___--0.6 _+0.4 _+1.6 ___--4.0 _--0.6 _--1.2 15th _____ (14d) __________--1.1 _--2.2 _--2.6 ___+0.7 _--1.2 _--0.7 ___+1.9 _+0.9 _+2.2 22nd _____ (21d) __________+2.2 _+0.3 _+0.8 ___+3.8 _+1.2 _--0.2 ___+5.1 _+1.7 _+4.0 25th _____ (24d) __________+2.8 _+1.1 _+1.6 ___+3.9 _+1.3 _+0.4 ___+4.6 _+2.0 _+4.0 _29th ____ (28d) __________+3.2 _+2.0 _+2.1 ___+5.5 _+2.2 _+1.6 ___+3.2 _+1.3 _+3.8 xxx _ 8th ____ (p14d) _________ --1.5 _--3.0 _--2.0 ___--1.0 _--2.0 _--1.7 ___--1.0 _--1.8 _--1.5 _15th____ (p21d) _________ +1.0 __ 0.0 __0.0 ___+2.2 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___+4.0 _+2.0 _+2.5 _22nd____ (p28d) _________ +2.0 _+1.0 _+1.3 ___+5.0 _+1.5 _+2.0 ___+3.7 _+1.5 _+2.5 xxx _ 8th ____ (p24d) _________ --1.0 _--2.0 _--1.5 ___--1.0 _--1.0 _--0.3 ____ 0.0 _--1.0 _--0.5 _15th____ (p31d) _________ +2.0 _+1.5 _+1.0 ___+1.5 _+1.0 _+0.5 ____+2.0 _+2.0 _+1.5 _22nd____ (p31d) _________ +1.0 _+0.5 _+0.5 ___+3.5 _+0.5 _+1.0 ___ +2.5 _+1.0 _+2.0 _25th____ (p31d) _________ +3.0 _+1.5 _+1.5 ___+4.5 _+1.5 _+1.0 ___ +2.5 __ 0.0 _+3.2 end of month anomalies ____ +3.8 _+2.6 _+2.6 ___+5.5 _+3.3 _+1.2 ___ +2.5 _+0.3 _+3.3 ______________________________________________ 8th _ The month began quite warm in eastern and central regions, then turned colder. This cold trend is supposed to last a few more days, then go briefly milder, with another cold interval before the 20th and milder again towards Christmas. No large temperature swings are foreseen, most days expected to remain within 5 degrees of normal. The 16-day forecast is an extension of the 7-day NWS numbers using the GFS output for 8th to 16th. As many stations are converging on small final anomalies, the consensus score if Normal scores the max of 900 would be 756. Forecasts are scattered around that median to the extent that almost anybody could win the contest if they get top score in December. 15th _ Rather late getting to this, so the 7-day forecast includes a known anomaly for 15th and is really a 6-day forecast to 21st. The extension to 31st is based on GFS showing a toned down mildish pattern in the east and somewhat less warmth than this coming week in the west. Most anomalies end up slightly positive at end of the month blending all things together. Would say it generally favors Scotty Lightning and wxallannj to finish 1-2 as I may fall to third, although I'm giving the west a chance to help me for a change. Anyone lower than third probably didn't separate their forecast enough to pass both Scotty and wxallannj, maybe a perfect outcome would just manage that. 22nd _ The past week warmed up even more than expected and the average forecast error was 0.87 deg. The week ahead looks fairly close to normal then milder again, although milder throughout for ORD, and turning a bit colder than average for SEA (and later PHX). The three final days taken from GFS appear to be much colder in the eastern and central regions, and cool in the west, so have dropped all end of month values from 28th. Time to do some provisional scoring now. 25th _ Provisionals have been raised at several locations and dropped at PHX. The forecasts made on 8th for the anomalies through 24 days proved to be 4 degrees too warm on average, not sure how much of the blame for that goes to GFS and how much to myself, as the first seven days of the period were not the main problem (NWS component from 8th to 14th generally within one degree). Certainly the major warming around 21st was not signalled at that time. But another set of eyes might have estimated closer than I managed to do. Scoring will be adjusted, I think it may leave the scoring race very close between wxallannj and Scotty Lightning. 29th _ Have updated anomalies, compare with 7d forecast by checking rows marked xxx. Average error was 0.7 deg. Not at home base, will update scoring and provisionals on 31st if possible then finalize scoring on Jan 1-2. Happy new year. Jan 1st _ Anomalies posted, scoring will be adjusted by end of today (strong coffee needed first).

2018-19 Snowfall forecast contest ... this will move along month by month, updated to Jan 1st ... further updates will appear in the Jan 2019 thread ... nothing at SEA yet, the snow line in the region has rarely dropped below 500 ft asl this winter so far where it was on Dec 31. ... I have had a moderate snowfall of about 20" so far in the mountains of BC. compares to 40" this time last winter. FORECASTER ___________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ DTW _ BUF ___ DEN _ SEA _ BTV Snowfall to date __________ 1.4 __ 6.4 __ 0.2 ___14.2 __ 7.2 __27.3 ___ 8.2 __ 0.0 __28.1 RJay __________________33.0 _54.0 _ 70.0 __ 30.0 _ 38.0 _100.0___ 65.0 __ 6.0 _100.0 DonSutherland.1 ________ 32.5 _ 50.0 _ 57.5 __ 48.5 _ 53.5 _110.0___ 52.0 __ 3.5 _ 93.0 Tom __________________ 26.3 _ 56.4_ 65.6 __ 29.6 _ 41.6 _ 95.2 ___ 62.3 __ 1.9 _ 89.6 wxallannj ______________ 25.0 _ 47.0 _ 52.0 __ 49.0 _ 51.0 _ 83.0 ___ 57.0 _ 13.0_ 77.0 Scotty Lightning _________25.0 _ 42.0 _ 75.0__ 70.0_ 80.0_120.0___75.0 _ 10.0 _ 85.0 BKViking _______________24.0 _ 55.0 _ 71.0 __ 35.0 _ 39.0 _ 78.0 ___ 60.0 _ 18.0 _ 78.0 ___ Consensus _________ 24.0 _ 44.5 _ 60.9 __ 37.5 _ 44.7 _ 92.6 ___ 58.5 __ 6.4 _ 88.8 dmillz25 _______________ 24.0 _ 53.0 _ 67.0 __ 40.0 _ 37.7 _ 85.0 ___ 57.0 __ 5.0 _ 90.0 wxdude64 _____________ 22.9 _ 40.6 _ 59.7 __ 38.9 _ 45.9 _ 98.4 ___ 67.6 __ 6.7 _ 90.3 hudsonvalley21 _________ 22.0 _ 40.0 _ 62.0 __ 36.0 _ 48.2 _101.5___ 51.0 __ 5.7 _ 88.0 Roger Smith ____________18.0 _ 28.0 _ 45.0 __ 30.5 _ 35.5 _ 90.0 ___ 60.5 _ 10.0 _ 78.0 Stebo _________________ 13.2 _ 34.3 _ 53.5 __ 33.5 _ 47.0 _ 87.0 ___ 37.0 _ 10.7 _ 97.0 RodneyS _______________12.5 _ 25.0 _ 37.5 __ 41.0 _ 43.5 _ 89.0 ___ 52.5 __ 4.5 _ 73.0 _____________________________________________________________________ High forecasts in bold, low forecasts in italic. Consensus is median, average of 6th and 7th ranked forecasts. Normal will be added later from NWS daily climate data snowfalls late in season. ... watch for updates to season totals and this post will migrate to new months as we move along .

Just like there's a greater than zero chance that I will be the next president of the United States. A lot of things have to happen, none of them very probable. By the way, I don't want to be, it seems to require explaining all your actions from age 16 to 30 and there is a zero chance of that happening.

Low appears to be slowly organizing between San Antonio and Monterrey MX. At least it has access to the Gulf. (looking for silver linings)

Table of entries for snowfall contest 2018-19 _________________________________________ These forecasts are arranged in order of total snowfall FORECASTER _________ APN_ORD_CLE_CMH_DTW__FWA_GRR_GRB_IND_LSE__YXU_SDF__MQT_MKE_MSP_MLI__PAH_PIA__STL_YYZ __ TOTAL dmc76 _______________77.0_45.8_82.4_38.9_58.4_47.8_82.0_55.6_28.8_40.6_104.4_17.7__189.0_54.0_47.7_27.0_21.0_22.0_25.0_63.2__1128.3 Roger Smith __________ 90.5_35.0_80.0_27.0_45.0_30.0_90.0_70.0_27.0_55.0__87.0_10.5__200.5_45.5_66.0_39.0_12.0_30.0_14.5_55.0__1109.5 DonSutherland.1 _______81.7_50.0_83.9_45.0_56.5_41.5_82.4_48.9_42.7_38.2_109.4_23.0__145.2_47.1_40.4_32.3_18.5_35.0_25.2_49.2__1096.1 vpbob21 _____________ 76.4_44.1_49.5_34.7_43.2_33.2_65.9_47.0_31.4_38.8__70.1_24.6__216.0_44.7_53.1_45.1_16.9_36.3_26.6_52.0__1049.6 ___ Contest normal ____ 80.4_38.1_67.2_28.4_44.8_34.0_77.1_54.2_25.9_46.1__75.7_13.9__199.8_49.2_50.6_33.5__9.2_24.9_18.4_42.5___1013.9 madwx _______________84.5_45.4_66.1_27.3_52.1_36.1_75.1_49.8_26.2_41.3__65.1_14.2__181.2_42.3_48.3_40.7_11.4_26.3_16.2_51.3__1000.9 ___ Contest median ____77.0_42.0_66.1_27.3_45.0_33.2_75.0_49.0_26.2_40.6__70.1_14.0__188.0_43.0_47.7_39.0_15.0_29.0_22.0_49.2___998.4* Mississauga Snow _____ 96.0_39.0_41.0_22.0_50.0_31.0_70.0_45.0_17.0_35.0__80.0_11.0__200.0_34.0_55.0_40.0_15.0_26.0_30.0_47.0___984.0 cyclone77 ____________ 90.0_44.0_59.0_29.0_41.0_26.0_73.0_47.0_24.0_42.0__78.0__9.0__175.0_43.0_47.0_46.0_11.0_31.0_24.0_41.0___980.0 Jackstraw ____________ 72.0_30.0_91.0_27.0_41.0_36.0_75.0_49.0_31.0_31.0__64.0_14.0__212.0_35.0_30.0_34.0_22.0_20.0_16.0_46.0___976.0 slowpoke _____________72.0_42.0_57.0_29.0_38.0_30.0_68.0_49.0_25.0_42.0__66.0_12.0__188.0_47.0_47.0_40.0_12.0_29.0_22.0_48.0___963.0 Stebo ________________65.0_35.0_83.0_22.0_48.0_37.0_77.0_45.0_25.0_35.0__60.0_18.0__185.0_40.0_35.0_31.0_18.0_20.0_20.0_50.0___949.0 DAFF ________________75.0_37.0_50.0_26.0_39.0_30.0_73.0_51.0_20.0_45.0__65.0_12.0__172.0_41.0_48.0_38.0_14.0_29.0_17.0_37.0___919.0 ______________________________________ *contest median total is sum of twenty median forecasts, the median total is 984.0  Tiebreakers (same order as table of entries) dmc76 ______________ Dec ORD 10.2" __ Jan IND 11.0" ___ Feb DTW 12.0" Roger Smith __________Dec ORD 13.5" __ Jan IND 10.0" ___ Feb DTW 12.5" DonSutherland.1 ______ Dec ORD 11.7" __ Jan IND 13.7" ___ Feb DTW 14.2" vpbob21 _____________ Dec ORD 3.6" ___Jan IND 9.4" ____ Feb DTW 13.1" madwx ______________ Dec ORD 9.2" ___ Jan IND 8.4" ____Feb DTW 18.3" Mississauga Snow ______ Dec ORD 4.1" ___ Jan IND 11.0"___ Feb DTW 16.0" cyclone77 ____________ Dec ORD 6.7" ___ Jan IND 9.6" ___ Feb DTW 13.4" Jackstraw ____________ Dec ORD 4.5" ___ Jan IND 12.0"___Feb DTW 10.5" slowpoke _____________ Dec ORD 6.0" ___ Jan IND 7.0" ___ Feb DTW 8.0" Stebo _______________ Dec ORD 6.7" ___ Jan IND 10.2" ___Feb DTW 15.2" DAFF________________ Dec ORD 10.7" ___Jan IND 13.8" ___Feb DTW 14.9" (mean of above entries) _________7.9" __________ 10.6" ___________ 13.5"

That GGEM 72-84h pass looks like 8-12" in central VA to southeast MD, 3-5" DCA to s NJ and a sharp cutoff near MD-PA border. Let's hope that trend of sharp northern cutoffs moving north works with this one. Then it could be more like 8-12" everywhere and let PA worry about where 3-5" ends up.

Your chances for a direct hit are one in four perhaps, but 50-50 for 2-4" near the northern fringes of the snow. Those aren't bad odds for first third of December. Not a very easy set-up for models to resolve, one thing in favor of a storm would be warm SST values offshore, could force a last minute northeast jog and you'll catch at least some of this. Best bet at this point is 2-5" DCA, but range of possible amounts trace to 15" so lots to play for here.

I guess we have reached the deadline, will be making up some sort of table of entries soon. Would be inclined to accept any forecasts posted rest of Tuesday 4th before I get that project finished, but as soon as a table of entries appears, the contest is closed to participating entries though. Let's say midnight Tuesday CST will be the absolute deadline, it takes a few hours to get this into excel format and processed then transcribed to the website.

Just a subjective comment but I recall the autumn of 1967 producing weather like this November, quite cold with frequent light snowfalls (in southern Ontario), and the weather following that was very mild for a part of mid-December, think I remember something like high 50s just before Christmas then much colder again, and otherwise a rather cold winter (in the east anyway) with a memorable snow to ice storm in Toronto in mid-January (1968). Not much recall of what may have happened elsewhere in that winter, there were long dry intervals in February where I was, almost daily sunshine, and another large snowfall around 12th of March, then a warm early spring developed.

Near-flizzard conditions.

__ Holiday greetings to all, considered no late penalty for RJay after considering his efforts to assist the contest and in view of positional advantage being nil with the forecasts supplied vs points needed but will apply one for the integrity of the Regional Rumble __ check the up to date scoring report in the November contest thread to see how close the annual scoring races are, Regional Rumble is not quite a lock yet for NYC but looking at the range of their forecasts this month, can't really see how anyone catches them, short of one of the Mid-Atl dynamic duo having a perfect set of predictions. Even then, 190 points to catch up (PHL probably too far back now). The individual all-nine is probably still in contention for the top five or six at least. Scotty Lightning had a lead of 23 over myself and I was 18 ahead of wxallannj after November, BKV and DonS are lurking not far behind. __ in any case, will post a list of total scores without late penalties for all regular contestants after this month, to show how you compare with no late penalties applied __ I have not done that all year and will be interested to see it myself. __ I invite any of you to post any thoughts (or send by PM) about future of this contest, I am willing to continue what I have been doing, or I could step aside for a new host and then I would be willing to continue scoring while that new host does the meet and greet portion of the contest? up to you folks, I am somewhat disappointed that I cannot seem to increase the numbers even with the Rumble concept, and we've gradually lost quite a few regulars which may or may not be related to my being the host? Don't know, I wonder if perhaps my controversial methods or possibly storm busts in regional forums have an effect on contest support, although really one's decision to participate in a contest should be mostly about one's own desire to forecast plus whether or not the contest is well run -- I believe this one is well run, even if I am the flakiest dude on the planet in some other aspect of weather (or life). ... meanwhile, I do take part in organizing contests on forums in UK and Ireland and have not run into the same rates of contest field attrition or decay over recent years, so perhaps it's a problem related more to Am Wx and the fact that many members stay in their regional forums mostly? Whatever, we need bigger fields, or do we? If there are twelve very committed people it has its own merits. I think if it was down to just me and two other guys, then might be time to apply the DNR. Despite all of that, thanks for your continued support of the contests. We could make up quite a list of the departed though, and some regions have stopped appearing here altogether. I did try to offer regional forum portals for the contest, but only two people ever used those, anyone who heard about the contest through that regional announcement came over here to participate. (will be p.m.'ing these thoughts if I don't think they were spotted, as we need to make some decisions in December about 2019) Table of forecasts for December 2018 FORECASTER ________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA Scotty Lightning ______________ +1.5 _+1.5 _+1.0 __ +0.5 _+1.5 _+1.5 ___ --0.5 _+1.0 __ 0.0 wxallannj ___________________ +1.5 _+0.4 _+0.4 __ +1.1 _+1.2 _+1.7 ___ +1.4 _+1.6 _+0.3 hudsonvalley21 _______________+0.9 _+0.3 _--0.2 __ --1.2 _+0.7 _+0.4 ___ +0.6 _+1.8 _+1.4 DonSutherland.1 ______________+0.5 _--0.6 _--1.0 __ --0.2 _+1.0 _+1.2 ___ +0.3 _+0.5 _+1.1 ___ Normal __________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 RodneyS ____________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 _--0.6 __ +0.7 _--0.5 _+0.2 ___ +0.7 _+1.0 _+0.3 BKViking ___________________ --0.4 _--0.6 _--0.8 __ --1.5 _--1.9 _--0.2 ___ --0.2 _+0.9 _+0.8 Tom _______________________ --0.9 _--0.8 _--0.9 __ --1.9 _--1.5 _--0.2 ___ --0.6 _+0.5 _+0.8 ___ Consensus ______________ --0.9 _--0.8 _--0.8 __ --0.9 _--1.3 _--0.2 ___ +0.3 _+1.0 _+1.0 RJay ______ (-3%) ___________--1.0 _--1.0 _--1.0 __ --1.0 _--1.0 _--1.0 ___ +1.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 Roger Smith _________________--1.0 _--1.3 _--1.0 __ --0.9 _--1.3 _--0.2 ___ +2.5 _+2.0 _+2.8 IntenseBlizzard2014 ___________--1.1 _--0.9 _--0.7 __ --0.9 _--1.5 _--0.5 ___ --0.4 _+0.7 _+0.6 Stebo ______________________ --1.2 _--1.5 _--2.1 __ +0.8 _--2.5 _--1.2 ___ --1.0 _--1.5 _+1.2 dmillz25 ____________________ --1.9 _--2.5 _--2.5 __ --2.0 _--2.5 _--1.2 ___ +1.0 _--1.0 _+1.5 wxdude64 ___________________ --3.1 _--2.8 _--2.9 __ --2.7 _--1.4 _--0.4 ___ --2.1 _+1.1 _+1.9 ____________________________________________________________________________ Color codes show warmest and coldest forecasts. Normal is tied coldest for SEA. Consensus is 7th ranked (median) of 13 forecasts. Welcome back to IntenseBlizzard2014, I think you've played one or two of these before. Good luck to all, and check the November thread to see how close the contests were at end of last month.

Extreme forecast report All six of these locations -- DCA, NYC, BOS, ORD, ATL, IAH, are wins for coldest forecasts. Normal has five of these shared with coldest forecast since that was either a small positive anomaly (DCA, NYC, BOS) or zero (ATL, IAH). Scotty Lightning shares wins at DCA, NYC and BOS (+1.0, +1.0, +0.5) vs -3.1, -3.3, and -1.8. Roger Smith shares wins at DCA and NYC. Stebo also shares a win for NYC. wxallannj has sole possession of ORD with a forecast of -0.8 (actual was -5.7). RodneyS has wins for ATL and IAH with forecasts of 0.0 (actuals -3.7, -3.6). DEN ... At -0.5, this was a close call, but it failed to qualify (at -0.7 to -1.1 it would have been a win for Stebo (-0.8) and a shared loss for coldest forecasts RodneyS and dmillz25 (-1.5). As fourth coldest forecast is -0.5 (wxallannj), that is the high score and DEN fails to qualify. PHX ... Unlike the other seven, this one produced a loss and a win. The final value is -0.3, and Stebo has coldest forecast at -1.1. The second coldest forecast was -0.2 from Tom. This makes Tom a winner and Stebo gets a loss, (-0.7 would reverse the order ... Normal is not in contention for PHX unless it actually finishes closer to zero, as Normal shares the win for outcomes --0.1 to +0.4.) SEA has finished at +3.1, a shared win for DonSutherland.1 and Roger Smith (+2.2) with warmest forecasts. ___________________________________________________________________ updated annual standings Roger Smith __________17###-1 (can fall to 14-1 see below) RodneyS _____________12-3 __ Normal ___________ 12-7 RJay ________________10-2 Scotty Lightning (SD)____9-1 wxdude64 ____________ 6-4 DonSutherland1 ________5-1 hudsonvalley21 ________ 4-0 AfewUniversesbelown.. __4-0 wxallannj _____________4-0 Orangeburgwx ________ 4#-0* (can fall to 3-0 see below) so_whats_happening ___ 2-0 Stebo ________________ 2-1 Mercurial _____________ 1-0 NRG Jeff ______________1-0 BKViking ______________1-0 cerakoter1984 _________ 1-0 H2OTown_wx _________ 1-1 Tom _________________ 1-1 * no decision (Mar for IAH) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- # wins excluding "a few Univ b n" will be withdrawn if a few Univ b n enters a third contest.

--1.0 _ --1.3 _ --1.0 ___ --0.9 _ --1.3 _ --0.2 ___ +2.5 _ +2.0 _ +2.8

Just to fill out the field to a reasonable size, I will extend the deadline for entries three days to the end of Monday, Dec 3rd (06z 4th will be the lock-up time). You can edit previous submissions to that deadline, no need to mention it as I don't copy anything until after that deadline has passed. I will maintain the log of actual snowfall in the entry form to the end of Nov 30th, not beyond if it does snow in the first three days of December. That is so I can convert the entry form into the first posting on actual amounts (Oct-Nov). Have mentioned the contest out of forum to see if we can get a few "blow-ins" from other snow capitals.

If you enjoy predicting snowfall, two other opportunities: (a) 18th annual NE-US snowfall contest at http://www.newx-forecasts.com/#RULES (during the season, 20th annual storm forecast contests, lots of fun, numerous AmWx members involved) firm deadline end of Friday 30th, season is only Dec 1 to Mar 31 so ignore current totals. ... 25 locations around the eastern U.S. incl the four we have here and SBY. and (b) Great Lakes - Ohio valley regional forum snow contest, over in that forum not a firm deadline (I set this one) and you could enter on Dec 1 or 2 -- the current totals are in the entry form and they count towards contest totals. worth a visit if you want to see snowfalls to date in the Midwest (42" MQT). ------------------------------------------------------- Looking forward to this one and the Dec 21-22 snowstorm (8-12")

How did this season work out? I lost track.

Four seasons contest update -- final scoring for the 2017-18 four seasons AUTUMN 2018 (Sept, Oct, Nov) ______________________ score ______________ score _______________ score (totals) FORECASTER ______ (original six) __ Points ___ (western) __ Points ____ (all nine) __ Points wxallannj _____________1083 ____ 6__________ 596 ______ 7________ 1679 _____10 Scotty Lightning _______ 1110 ___ 10 __________537 ______ 3 ________1647 _____ 7 RodneyS _____________1047 ____ 2 __________ 498 _____10 ________ 1645 _____ 6 Tom _________________1073 ____ 5 __________567 ______ 5 ________1640 _____ 5 BKViking _____________ 1068 ____ 4 __________518 ______ 1 ________1586 _____ 4 ___ Consensus ________ 1039 ____1 __________536 ______ 2 ________1575 _____ 3 Stebo ________________ 1109 ___ 7 __________ 464 ______ -- _______ 1573 _____ 3 dmillz25 ______________ 971 ____ 1 __________ 568 ______ 6 ________1539 _____ 2 Roger Smith ___________1048 ___ 3 __________ 487 ______ 1 ________1535 _____ 1 ___Normal ____________ 954 ___ -- ___________532 ______ 2 ________1486 _____ 1 hudsonvalley21_________952 ____ -- __________ 531 ______ 2 ________1483 _____ 1 Don Sutherland.1 _______960 ____ 1 __________ 494 ______ 1 ________1454 _____ 1 RJay _________________911 ____ -- __________ 542 ______ 4 ________1453 _____ -- wxdude64 _____________1012 ___ 1 __________ 359 ______ --_______ 1371 _____ -- jaxjagman ___(2 mo)___ 772 _____-- __________ 352 ______ -- _______ 1124 _____ -- Four Seasons total points to date -- final standings for 2017-18 four seasons contest ... listed in order of all nine total points ... FORECASTER ____ (original six) __ Points __ (western) __ Points __ (all nine) __ Points wxallannj _________ 2, 1, 10, 6__ 19 ______ 1, 5, 1, 7___14 ___ 2, 3,10,10 __25 Scotty Lightning _____10, 0, 4, 10__24 _____ 10, 6, 1, 3 __ 20 ___10, 0, 2, 7 __19 Don Sutherland.1 _____5, 4, 5, 1___15 _____ 7, 4, 6, 1 ___ 18 ____6, 4, 6, 1 __ 17 RodneyS ____________ 0, 7, 1, 2 _ 10 ______ 1,10, 4,10 _ 25 ____0,10, 1, 6 __ 17 BKViking ___________ 3, 0, 7, 4 ___14 _____ 1, 7, 1, 1____10 ____ 3, 2, 7, 4 __16 Tom _______________ 0, 5, 6, 5__ 16 ______ 6, 1, 1, 5 __ 13 ____0, 5, 5, 5 __ 15 ___ Consensus ____2, 1, 5, 1__ 9 _____ 3, 4, 2, 2 __11 ___ 4, 1, 7, 3 _ 15 Roger Smith _________1,10, 2, 3 __16 ______ 5, 0, 0, 1 __ 6 ____ 4, 7, 0, 1___12 hudsonvalley21 ______ 7, 1, 1, 0 ___9 ______ 3, 2,10, 2 __17 ____7, 1, 3, 1__ 12 ___Normal __________ 7, 0, 0, 0 __ 7 ______ 6, 0, 0, 2 ___ 8 ____ 7, 0, 0, 1 __ 8 wxdude64 __________ 4, 6, 0, 1 __ 11 ______ 0, 0, 4, 0___ 4 ____ 1, 6, 0, 0 __ 7 dmillz25 _____________1, 0, 1, 1 __ 3 ______ 0, 1, 7, 3 __11 _____0, 0, 5, 2 __ 7 so_whats_happening __ 6. 0, 0, 0 __ 6 ______ 2, 3, 0, 0 ___ 5 ____ 5, 0, 0, 0 __ 5 RJay ________________1, 1, 0, 0 __ 2 ______ 0, 2, 5, 4 ___11 ____1, 1, 1, 0 __ 3 Stebo _______________0, 2, 0, 7 __ 9 ______ 0, 0, 0, 0 ___ 0 ____ 0, 0, 0, 3 __ 3 H2O_Town__WX ______0, 0, 0, 0 __ 0 ______ 5, 0, 0, 0 ___ 5 ____ 1, 0, 0, 0 __ 1 jaxjagman ___________ 0, 0, 3, 0 __ 3 ______ 0, 0, 0, 0 ___ 0 ____ 0, 0, 1, 0 __ 1 (only forecasters with any points are in table) Congrats to wxallannj for winning the four seasons contest (all nine), Scotty Lightning takes the "original six" portion and RodneyS wins the west.

Just an invitation to the winter snowfall forecast contest, deadline is Friday 30th at end of the day. The entry form shows the snowfalls to date (which would be part of your forecast). Hope to see you there.

I hope you've had an enjoyable Thanksgiving break, now ... With many of the contests close in terms of scoring, this is the final month of competition for 2018 ... and the usual forecast challenge ... predict the anomalies relative to 1981-2010 in F deg for DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA The usual late penalties apply. Good luck ! (NYC leads Regional Rumble by a not quite insurmountable margin, see provisional scoring for NOV for details).

A: That will happen if you hang around with models all day.

I think that one-storm two-day record from 1895 could fall with this one, 12-14" potential. Will say 11.5" ORD narrow miss on the record (as quoted earlier in the thread). GRR should probably double their call. Would go 9 inches there. DTW about 4 inches, will start as rain but gradually change over. Any place this starts as rain with east to northeast wind and 38-40 F temp will quickly change over and go all heavy snow. Where it starts at about 45 F southeast wind, could take longer but many places will lose their access to warm sector as the low rapidly occludes and snow surrounds the center. It is operating from Pacific moisture, Gulf inflow will be limited (dew points in current warm sector in 30s). Strong dynamics are the reason for the heavy precip more than Gulf moisture. The pivot south of DSM is plausible, would not be saying much more than 2" there, trending to 10" at IA-MO state border.

Differences in latitude of snow swath may be partly a signal of model rates of cooling of near-track boundary layers because I think this system is the kind that goes moderate rain to sleet to heavy wet snow along its track, warm sector never very robust and falls apart rapidly after 00z 27th, so it may not be only an issue of low track but this mixing and phase change recognition. And I think the actual outcome may be south of most guidance as a result.

This low really loses its warm sector quickly once it reaches western MI, probably an argument for a southward shift of the snow zone in general after passing Lake Michigan. Would suggest 8-12" s.e. IA, n IL, s WI into parts of s/c MI and 2-5" beginning to appear east of South Bend into se MI, sw ON, rain-snow mix in OH. Rapid pressure jump to coast means Toronto could see mostly snow despite the track.

If you happen to be wondering if this early intense cold outbreak in the east has some predictive value, the answer is no ... as an independent variable. I took the coldest readings on Nov 21st from Toronto's 177 years of data that I have stored on an excel file, and averaged out the temperature trends from today's date to the end of the following year. (readings of 8 or more degrees below average) Within five days the cold signal was (on average) largely extinguished from the data, and all three of the winter months showed a trend that was more or less normal (on average of the 28 cases). Through the remainder of the following years the most notable anomaly was a warm mid April and a cold end to September of the following calendar year. Much of the rest of the trend curve stayed very close to average (indicating random scatter). The range of outcomes varied from the super cold January of 1977 to a very mild January in 1950. So considered "stand alone" this cold tells us nothing predictive about the winter ahead. If you are interested, this is the set of years with the lowest temperatures on Nov 21 (in chronological order) ... since 1841 1850, 1857, 1869, 1872, 1873, 1875, 1879, 1880, 1888, 1895, 1903, 1905, 1911, 1914, 1916, 1929, 1932, 1937, 1949, 1950, 1951, 1969, 1971, 1972, 1976, 1984, 1987, 2008, 2014 These averaged 11.8 degrees (F) below the average of the entire data set for Nov 21. By Nov 28th it was no longer below normal and oscillated around normal for the rest of the winter. The coldest period that spanned Nov 21 to 26 was in 1880, with record lows on several days and an average more than 20 degrees below normal. The coldest December to follow any of these years was 1976. December of 1875 stayed very cold to 20th and flipped to very mild where it stayed all through Jan 1876. (Nov 30th 1875 was the coldest November day in the period of record). The winter of 1869-70 produced the most snow of any winter at Toronto. However, 1932-33 was relatively snow free. There are several winters here we would not want to see repeating (if looking for snow and cold) ... these include 1875-76, 1905-06 (improved towards end), 1929-30 (record warm Feb), 1932-33, 1949-50, 1951-52 (okay in Dec 51), 1972-73 (not much snow), 1987-88 (mild). So in other words, don't place too much faith in the "early indicators" theme, means nothing by itself. It can lead to almost any sort of winter overall.