Roger Smith

Continued reports on anomalies and forecasts ... ______________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA _8th ___ (7d) __________+10.2_ +7.1_ +7.6 _+12.0_+12.5 _+1.8 __+2.7 _--6.2 _+2.7 15th __ (14d) __________ +5.5_ +3.1_ +3.9 __ +6.9_ +6.9 _+1.5 __+2.9 _--2.1 _+4.1 22nd __ (21d) __________+2.9_ +0.9_ +2.1 __ +4.3_ +4.8 _+1.1 __+4.2 _--0.6 _+3.8 25th __ (24d) __________ +2.8_ +1.4_ +2.4 __ +3.3_ +4.4 _+1.1 __+2.8 _--1.1 _+3.6 ((*)) 29th __ (28d) __________ +2.4_ +1.3_ +2.7 __ +0.3_ +3.5 _+0.9 __+1.8 _--0.9 _+3.6 _8th ___ (p14d) _________+4.5_ +2.5_ +2.8 __ +6.0 _+5.8 _+2.0 __+5.0 _--1.6 _+2.5 15th ___ (p21d) _________+3.5_ +1.2_ +1.8 __ +3.8_ +5.0 __0.0 __ +2.3 _--1.0 _+2.7 22nd ___ (p28d) ________ +2.0_ +0.1_ +0.5 __ +0.8_ +2.0 _--1.0 __ +2.8 _+0.5 _+3.1 _8th ___ (p24d) _________+1.5_ +0.5_ +0.5 __ +2.0 _ +2.0 _+2.0 __ +1.5 _--2.0 _+1.5 ((*)) 15th ___ (p31d) _________+0.5_--1.5_ --1.0 ____ 0.0 _ +2.0 _--1.5 __--1.5 _--1.7 _+0.5 22nd ___ (p31d) ________ +0.5_--0.5_ --0.5 ____ 0.0 _ +1.0 _--1.5 __ +2.0 _+0.5 _+4.0 29th ___ (p31d) _________+1.5_ +0.5_ +2.0 ___--2.5 _+2.0 __0.0 __ +1.5 _--0.5 _+3.0 31st __ final anomalies ___ +1.2_ --0.1_ +1.8 ___--2.8_ +2.6 _+0.3 __+1.3 _--0.4 _+3.0 ____________________________________________________________ 15th _ The expected cooling trend was reasonably well predicted with an average error of 1.04 deg. The coming week will see most locations falling slowly at first and then much faster from their current positive anomalies. Then the GFS advertises very cold anomalies for most locations after 21st, and this should begin to turn some of the positives to negatives before the month ends. 22nd _ The faster cooling trend in the past seven days was well handled except at DEN and SEA which warmed more than expected. The next seven days will be a collection of very cold days with milder than average intrusions, making the reliability of the seven-day (and therefore end of month) outlooks a bit subject to change, then the last three days look very cold in the east, cold to milder further west. SEA should hold on to a large positive anomaly which will be good news for DonS if I am reading the charts right. Provisional scoring will follow later today, based on the new end of month figures. 25th _ The 16d forecast from 8th is verified today ((*)) rows can be compared. The average error is 1.5 deg and the score for the "forecast" would be 640, about the same as our consensus from the first, so no improvement and similar numbers to our consensus. I have not updated end of month because it seems that if the cold is extreme the numbers will verify and if not some locations will come in higher by 0.5 to 1.0, so I will revisit this on 29th. 29th _ Got to this task very late so I have the anomalies for the 29th as well. The forecasts from 22nd were generally too cold in the east and too warm in the west, so changes in the end of month are mostly due to that fact rather than anything unexpected from today to Thursday. Chicago will plummet with record cold on top of the severe cold they've had all week, and the eastern cities will only get a glancing blow, so those numbers are going to change substantially. The western three will all come in a bit colder than earlier forecast, I think. Scores will be adjusted soon. 31st _ 1st overnight __ updating anomalies and scoring __ no big surprises except that IAH already reported, usually they are last in.

SBY now updated too, 3.7" storm for 4.5" seasonal. LYH had already posted 4.1" for 15.6" seasonal. My charts showing the graphic version of the contest standings are updated. Hoping that my calculations are accurate, I did come up with the same leader anyway.

It looks cold but in Feb 1934 there were readings of -50 F in upstate New York and eastern Ontario, and Lake Ontario froze over completely. Also in Jan 1976 I was living close to where you see that -14 reading east of Georgian Bay and it was -42 F overnight. The readings north of Lake Superior are probably close to all-time records on that map though. There is very little ice on the Great Lakes so far this mild winter (until last few days), Canadian govt not shut down so I could refer you to the ice cover maps on the EC site. But only small amounts of ice showing near shore on the GL.

Thanks, it just changed for RIC on the daily climate report as you say, 13.0 with 1.5 this month but the CF6 still shows missing amounts for 12th and 13th under snowfall. I will edit tables and charts after they confirm on the CF6, as I am not sure if this 1.5" includes all the weekend time period or only a part of it. Will make no difference to the order I have listed there since almost everyone has 0.5" left to use up but it will move the leaders 1.0" closer to their chasers if they have gone over their forecast amounts for RIC. Also my charts are totally unofficial, just for something to look at until the official stats are posted by PFwx. edit __ I have updated now using the 13.0" total.

In the meantime, I have edited those charts that I posted earlier (the DCA centered one is two posts back, the RIC centered one is edit back further) ... the only unknown at this point is SBY, as I have an update of 1.5" for RIC and have now confirmed 3.7" for SBY for a seasonal total of 4.5" (LYH is 15.8" seasonal) -- will continue to edit those charts with updated information as it comes in. But I think participants may be interested in this, it's a table of what you are now forecasting to reach your targets (and in a very few cases, departures from already passed forecasts). This will approximate what the official contest report says in a day or two about the new order of merit, as I arranged these in terms of total departures. So this is how much more snow you need to get to a perfect forecast (excluding those few who have built in errors already). I have not included the tie breakers in this table. (As of March 8th, SBY now 5.3" and LYH now 21.0"). SNOWFALL CONTEST AMOUNTS STILL REQUIRED (entries in brackets = forecasts now in excess of season to date) Forecaster _____ Nov date _____ BWI ___ DCA ___ IAD ___ RIC _____ Total dep Snow to date __ MAR 8 _____ 18.2 __ 16.9 __ 26.5 __ 13.1 Stormpc ___________26 _______ 1.7 ___(0.2) ___ (1.9) ___ 4.1 ______ 7.9 Olafminesaw _______ 25 _______ 1.2 ___ 0.4 ____(3.0) ___(3.3) ______7.9 RodneyS __________ 21 _______ 2.1 ___(3.0)___ (2.9) ____ 0.2 ______8.2 Weather53 _________21 ______ 3.0 ___(0.4)___ (4.4) ____ 1.6 ______ 9.4 nw Baltimore wx ___ 10 _______ 3.8 ___ (0.9) ___(1.5)___ (5.1) _____ 11.3 Bob Chill __________ 27 _______ 7.8 ___ (0.9) ___ 2.5 ____ 0.9 ______ 12.1 Prince Frederick Wx __1 ________6.3 ___ 0.8 ____ 1.3 ____ 4.0 ______ 12.4 WinterWxLuvr ______ 8 ________4.8 ___ 1.1 ____ 5.5 ____ (2.1) _____ 13.5 biodhokie __________ 8 _______ 3.1 ___ 0.9 ____ (8.4) ___ 1.4 ______ 13.8 Chris78 ____________ 1 _______ 8.5 ___ 1.5 ____ 2.1 ____ 1.8 ______ 13.9 leesburg 04 _________1 _______ 3.8 ___ (4.9)____(3.5) ___(2.1) _____ 14.3 MN Transplant _____ 28 _______ (0.4) ___(2.7)___(6.9) ___ (5.3) _____ 15.3 dmillz25 ____________1 ______ 10.8 ___ 2.1 ____(1.5)____(2.1) _____ 16.5 Thanatos_I_Am ____ 30 _______ 9.4 ___ 1.4 ____(0.7)____ (5.6) _____ 17.1 Grothar of Herndon _ 30 _______ 7.5 ___ 1.4 ____ 2.6 ____ 6.1 ______ 17.6 MillvilleWx __________1 _______ 9.2 ___ 4.2 ____ 3.0 ____ 1.9 ______ 18.3 supernovasky _______ 9 _______ 1.8 ___ (5.9) ___(7.5) ___(4.1) _____ 19.3 cae ______________ 30 _______ 9.4 ___ 4.9 ____ 4.8 ____(0.4)______ 19.5 Gopper ___________ 15 ______ 10.6 ___ 0.8 ____ 6.8 ____ 2.4 ______ 20.6 Gramax Refugee ____27 ______ 11.3 ___ 0.0 ____ 5.5 ____ 4.1 ______ 20.9 NorthArlington101 ___ 1 _______ 7.5 ___ 5.9 ____ 5.7 ____ 2.9 ______ 22.0 Wonderdog ________ 9 ________8.8 ___(0.3)____ 6.5 ____ 6.9 ______ 22.5 Yoda _____________ 27 ______ 11.4 ___ 4.9 ____ 6.4 ____ 1.0 ______ 23.7 WxWatcher007 _____30 ______ 10.7 ___ 4.2 ____ 6.0 ____ 3.3 ______ 24.2 mattie g __________ 28 ______ 12.4 ___ 4.2 ___ 12.2 ____ 0.8 ______ 29.6 Prestige Worldwide __27 ______ 12.8___ 6.1 ____ 8.5 ____ 2.7 ______ 30.1 North Balti Zen ______5 ______ 10.6 ___ 4.2 ____ 9.2 ____ 6.5 ______ 30.5 ___ Consensus ____ median ___ 12.4___ 5.8 ____ 8.5 ____ 3.9 ______ 30.6 Bristow Wx _________ 1 ______ (4.4) _ (10.2) __(13.9) ___(4.4) _____ 32.9 Shadowzone _______ 14 ______ 13.5___ 7.2 ____ 9.2 ____ 3.7 ______ 33.6 LP08 ______________ 5 ______ 16.2 ___ 2.8 ___ 16.1 ____ 0.2 ______ 35.3 wxUSAF ___________ 5 ______ 13.3 ___ 5.8 ____ 8.7 ____ 8.0 ______ 35.8 mappy _____________5 ______ 13.8___ 8.1 ____ 8.5 ____ 5.9 ______ 36.3 Sparky ____________ 2 ______ 15.8___ 8.1 ___ 12.5 ____ 0.9 ______ 37.3 EastCoastNPZ ______ 22 _____ (7.3) __(10.4) __(15.4) ___(4.4) _____ 37.5 BTRwx'sThanksGiving_12 _____ 15.8___ 7.1 ___ 11.5 ____ 3.9 ______ 38.3 T. August _________ 21 ______ 17.8___ 6.0 ____ 1.0 ____16.1______ 40.9 Cobalt ____________ 30 ______ 15.0___10.0 ___12.9 ____ 3.7 ______ 41.6 clskinsfan _________ 20 ^ 1 ___19.3___10.6 ___ 10.0 ____ 5.4 ______ 45.3 OnceinaLifetime2009_ 28 ______11.9___ 9.8 ___ 18.0 ____ 6.8 ______ 46.5 HighStakes _________ 6 ______ 19.2___ 7.6 ___ 14.6 ____ 6.9 ______ 48.3 ravensrule _________12 ______ 19.8___13.1 ___ 13.5 ____ 1.9 ______ 48.3 psuhoffman ________ 1 ______ 20.8___11.1 ___ 10.5 ____ 6.9 ______ 49.3 C. A. P. E. __________1 ______ 20.3___13.4 ____ 9.3 ____ 7.0 ______ 50.0 Roger Smith _______ 26 ^ 1___ 25.6___12.3 ___ 16.0 ____ 7.9 ______ 61.8 JakkelWx _________ 30 ______ 21.8___18.1 ___ 15.5 ___ 10.9 ______ 66.3 GATECH __________ 1 _______ 27.7___18.8 ___ 21.0 ____ 1.2 ______ 67.7 southMDwatcher ___ 20 _______25.6___14.2 ___ 21.4 ____ 7.6 ______ 68.8 budice2002 _______ 14 ______ 23.8___14.1 ___ 19.5 ____12.9 ______ 70.3 weatherCCB _______ 16 ______ 28.6___10.5 ___ 23.1 ____ 9.9 ______ 72.1 snowgolfbro _______ 10 ______ 28.8___13.1 ___ 25.5 ____ 4.9 ______ 72.3 nj2va _____________ 1 _______30.5___12.3 ___ 33.4 ____ 5.8 ______ 82.0 George BM ________ 15 _____ (16.5) __(15.5) __ (23.5) __ 29.6 _____ 85.1 SnowLuvrDude _____30 ______ 30.4___20.2 ___ 25.9 ____ 8.6 ______ 85.1 showmethesnow ___ 27 ______ 31.8___17.1 ___ 27.5 ___ 10.9 ______ 87.3 tplbge ____________16 _______34.8___17.1 ___ 22.5 ___ 15.9 ______ 90.3 wxdude64 ________ 13 _______37.6___21.5 ___ 30.9 ___ 13.0 ______103.0 osfan24 ___________ 7 _______36.1 __29.3 ___ 29.4 ___ 18.2 ______ 113.0 AFewUnivBelowN ___ 1 _______46.8 __23.1 ___ 29.5 ___ 14.9 ______ 114.3 RIC Airport ________ 1 _______44.3 __29.1 ___ 35.4 ___ 19.1 ______ 127.9 __________________________________________________________

I think that the relationship between snow cover and cyclone tracks is largely a manifestation of persistence rather than forcing. The southerly extent of snow cover is likely to be similar to the track of previous cyclones. So if persistence is the best forecasting random element then the next cyclone should run along the snow boundary too, except that a snowfall event is more likely than not to be followed by cold air which would be statistically linked to falling heights, so therefore at random the next cyclone should run further south than the first snow-producer did. In actual fact I think there is almost no forcing mechanism from event to event. If other factors realign the upper level flow, then a low will just charge into the snow cover zone and rain on it, and the only feedback will be in terms of slight downward pressure on air mass temperatures in the warm sector. Also in this case, you have two distinct snow boundaries so the next major system could choose either one to verify the theory (one being south of your region and one being around upstate NY into south-central ON). In this particular case, I have a hunch that there will be a last-minute trend south on the main event after the leading wave is followed by a sagging frontal boundary and the strong high clamps down on the energy. Not 100% confident that you'll be in the sweet spot, perhaps more like s PA, but in with a chance for 5-10" anyway. The harsh temperature drop seems realistic for any who do get into the warm sector.

If highs are in the 38-43 F range I would expect you would lose about 2" a day mostly to sublimation (loss into the air as water vapor). As I mentioned before the storm, we had a similar snowfall here last Wednesday that was unrelated to your storm except it happened at a similar temperature and we've had those sorts of temperatures since, and I still have full snow cover of about 2-3" here today. If it gets much above 43 F though, it's going to disappear in two or three days or so except in deeper shade. Since there's some chance of a top-up on Friday, I would expect you will get to that event with half your snow pack intact, and of course all large snow piles will start melting down a bit, but those will last until there's three or four very mild days and/or some heavy rain.

I knew if I hung in long enough, I could under-predict a Mid-Atlantic snowfall. It almost happened in 2010 but now it has. We move on to the second sign of the apocalypse.

It's interesting how many times the extreme forecast wins, realizing there are a few ties and taking note that we award a win to a regular player against field when an occasional entrant wins, and not having time to go back through twelve contests and add up the actual numbers, I think at least 70 out of 108 possible months had an extreme forecast winner and then taking away the "losses" which mean that the second most extreme actually won, perhaps about 60 out of 108, more than half the time it pays to go large -- as long as you don't go too large and in the wrong direction which risks getting a zero score. Our "extreme forecasters" finished the contest in this order ... 3rd, 1st, (normal), 7th, 9th, 2nd, 10th, 4th, 5th, then three who were not entered that often, fniishing up with our regular 12th and 8th. That shows no real trend in terms of going extreme being a good or bad strategy although maybe slightly skewed towards it being good? I have a feeling that if you just said +1.0 for every forecast you might do fairly well. If Normal gained 20 points 70% of the time (by predicting +1.0) and lost 20 25% of the time, with the rest being random scatter, then Normal would have 45% x 108 x 20 more points which is 972 more, and that would equate to first place (Normal finished equivalent to 10th place). In fact, I think Normal wins under those assumptions at any value between +0.5 and +1.5. Our winner often forecasts in that range. Also Normal wins under my calculations at 60% vs 35% gain to loss, perhaps I have underestimated the number of random scatter cases (which would be where the actual result is between zero and one degree absolute). Anyway, something to consider next year, it's the opposite of extreme forecast strategy because it would tend to hug consensus more.

also IAD 10.6 storm total, BWI 6.6

Confused about how to post on a weather forum? Just fill in the blanks here and you're good to go ... Just looked out the window and I think we have ___ inches (note -- be sure not to say where you are) which is more than the ____ model said we would have. The ____ model is crap anyway. My health is ____ (insert random illness) ______ so I can't get out and _______ (insert random activity) _____ although if the _____ model is right, I will be able to do that on ______ -- the ____ model is awesome at that time range and I will always remember how it nailed the ______ storm _____ days in advance. Glad I didn't listen to Roger Smith who said _____ ______ ______ .

As of mid-day climo reports, storm totals appear to be 5.4" DCA, 5.6" BWI and 7.1" IAD. Will likely add to all those with final reports.

With the ECM continuing to keep this 20th-21st monster on a southern track, I believe that the snow potential is higher than advertised and freezing rain less likely, as the leading wave on 19th looks set to drop a bit of sleety mix, then quite possibly the actual low will have more cold air to lift and it won't blast in those higher 850s as shown, but will produce frontal boundaries that resemble the current setup. This would bring S+ down into the I-95 corridor and put the mixed precip into an OCE-RIC arc including the southern counties of Maryland west of the Bay. The CMC solution looks way too far north given the overall pattern and the GFS could use some definition but isn't entirely against the snow outcome, more of a rain to snow sort of look at the moment. The analogy might be Jan 28-30, 2010 with a stronger storm in the trailing position this time. That was also a perigeean full moon (Jan 30) following a northern max by 2-3 days, this year the timing separation is a bare two days but that's ideal for the one-two hit with 24-36h of cold air damming potential between storms (although at the moment the N Max event is so weak it can't be called a storm as such). In 2010 IIRC the N Max went well to the north and pulled in 60s before the front set up ahead of the first snowstorm of the 2010 run. This year, you have some chance of retaining a bit of snow cover from this weekend into a weaker warm advection event, so ground could be snow covered into onset of Jan 20. I know it's marginal but if the low center does track across s.e. VA then it's not far from the 2016 track. That was also near the full moon. So was Jan 96. It may be coincidence but my research shows there is always a strong one-two pulse of energy in January at this N Max full moon combination (which must be 1.5 to 3.5 days apart depending on how late the full moon is into January). The energy can run well north of you in a mild pattern, as with 1999 or going back a long way, 1967. The bottom line is, somebody is going to get a huge snowfall out of Jan 20-21, could be you and then NYC-BOS, could be OH-PA-NY and se MI into s ON. Time will tell.

You had a good run. But you're not the last to fall, by the looks of the pattern.

In December I posted this chart which graphically illustrates how reality to date compares to the forecasts, using DCA as the organizing value for the chart. A second chart was posted using RIC as the focus. Now that some snow has finally fallen at the other three locations, I think I will only be updating this DCA-based chart. If you didn't see it before, the first posting of this is followed by some interesting statistics on the contest forecasts. I have not copied those to this post. And so, all I've done here is to move the "snow to date" entry down into the table past the 6.5" and 6.7" entries (and in later edit, past 11.0) to 11.7 inches -- this is the new chart ... DCA in black type, IAD in red, BWI in green, RIC in blue, and (for most) SBY in orange, with LYH also in orange and with the asterisk (for the three who used it as their tie-breaker). I have boosted the totals by two-day reported storm totals or estimates of 10.3" for DCA and 10.6" for IAD, 6.6" for BWI, 1.5" for RIC and 3.7" for SBY, and 4.1" for LYH (all now as per CF6). Have added Jan 29 to Mar 8 amounts to this table. Forecaster _____Nov date __ 0" __ 2" __ 4" __ 6" __ 8" __10" __12"__14"__16"__18"_20"_22"_24"_26"_28"_30"_32"_34"_36".38".40"...45"...50"..60"..70"..80" George BM ________ 15 _____ 1.41.7 3.0___________________________________________________________________________42.7___ 50.2 EastCoastNPZ ______ 22 __________________ 6.5_7.8_8.710.911.1 Bristow Wx _________ 1 ___________________ 6.7_7.4_8.7 ____ 12.6 13.8 supernovasky _______ 9 __________________________9.0__11.0 12.0___________ 19.020.0 leesburg 04 _________1 _______________________________11.0 12.0 ______ 17.0_____ 22.023.0 RodneyS __________ 21 ___________________________ 10.5 _13.3 13.9 __________ 20.3 __23.6 MN Transplant _____ 28 _________________5.4 __ 7.8 ___________ 14.2 ____ 17.8_19.6 Wonderdog ________ 9 ________________________________ 12.75 ____ 16.0 ____ 20.0 ________ 27.0 ____ 33.0 nw Baltimore wx ___ 10 _______________________ 8.0 _______ 13.0 ____16.0 _________ 22.0_ 25.0 Bob Chill __________ 27 ________________________________ 12.0_14.0_16.0 _______________ 26.0 _ 29.0 Weather53 _________21 ______________________________________14.7_16.516.8____21.2_22.1 Stormpc ___________26 ___________________________________________16.716.817.2_19.9_ 24.6 Gramax Refugee ____27 _______________________________________15.2_16.9 17.2 ________________ 29.5_32.0 _ Snow to date __ Mar 8 ___________ 5.3 ________________13.1_16.9 _ 18.2 _ (21.0)* _26.5 Olafminesaw _______25 ________________________ 8.7_ 9.8 ____________ 17.3 __19.4 ____ 23.5 Prince Frederick Wx _ 1 ______________________________________ 14.3_17.117.7 __________24.5 _ 27.8 Gopper ___________ 15 ____________________________ 9.9________ 15.5 _ 17.7 __________________28.8 ___ 33.3 biodhokie __________ 8 ______________________________________ 14.5 ___17.8 18.1__21.3__________ 30.2 WinterWxLuvr ______ 8 _______________________________ 11.0 _ 13.0 _____18.0 _______ 23.0_________ 32.0 Thanatos_I_Am ____ 30 ___________ 3.2 _______ 7.5 _____________________ 18.3 ___________25.8 27.6 Grothar of Herndon _ 30 _______________________________________14.4 ____18.3 19.2 ______ 25.7 __ 29.1 Chris78 ____________ 1 ____________________________________12.4 14.9 ___ 18.4 ___________26.7_28.6 dmillz25 ____________1 _____________________________ 10.0 11.0 __________ 19.0 _________25.0 __ 29.0 LP08 ______________ 5 ______________________________________13.314.6 ___ 19.7 _____________________ 34.4_______ 42.6 MillvilleWx __________1 _________________________ 8.7 _____________15.0 _______21.1 _________27.4_29.5 North Balti Zen ______ 5 ______________________________________14.0 _____ 19.6_21.1 _________ 28.8 ________35.7 mattie g __________ 28 _____________________________10.4 _____13.9 __________ 21.1 ____________ 30.6 ___________38.7 WxWatcher007 _____30 _____________________________10.6 ___________16.4 ____ 21.1 _________ 28.9 ____32.5 Yoda _____________ 27 ________________________ 8.4___________ 14.1 ___________21.8 _________29.6 ___ 32.9 cae ______________ 30 ________________________________11.7_12.7 _____________ 21.8 _______27.6 ___ 31.3 WxUSAF ___________ 5 ____________________________________________16.6 ____21.1 22.7 _____________31.5 _ 35.2 ___ Consensus ____ median ____________________________________Sby14.4 _17.0 ____ 22.7 _____Lyh 30.1*_30.6_ 35.0 NorthArlington101 ___ 1 __________________________ 9.1 ______________16.0 _________22.8 __25.7 _____ 32.2 T. August _________ 21 ___________________________________________________19.1__22.9 ____ 27.5_29.2 _______ 36.0 Prestige Worldwide __27 __________________________________12.4 ____15.8 __________ 23.0 ___________31.0 ____ 35.0 BTRwx'sThanksGiving_12 _________________________________12.0 _______17.0 __________ 24.0 _____________34.0 ___ 38.0 Shadowzone _______ 14 ___________________________________________ 16.8 ____ 20.3*__ 24.1 _________31.7 ____ 35.7 HighStakes _________ 6 _________________________________________________18.7 20.0 ___24.5 __________________ 37.4 _41.1 Sparky ____________ 2 ________________________________________ 14.015.0_____________ 25.0 ___________34.0 _____ 39.0 mappy ____________ 5 __________________________________________________ 19.0 _ 22.0_ 25.0 ________32.0 __ 35.0 OnceinaLifetime2009_28 _______________________________11.1 _________________19.9 _______ 26.7 __ 30.1 ________________44.5 Cobalt ____________30 __________________________________12.1 _______16.8 _______________ 26.9 ______ 33.2 _______39.4 weatherCCB _______ 16 ___________________________________________________19.5 __23.0 ____ 27.4 ______________________ 46.8_49.6 clskinsfan _________ 20 ^ 1 ______________________________________ 15.5 _ 18.5 ______________27.5 _____________ 36.5 37.5 psuhoffman ________ 1 ___________________________________________________19.0 20.0 _______ 28.0 _______________37.0 39.0 nj2va ____________ 1 __________________________________ 11.5 ____________ 18.9 _____________ 29.2 _____________________ 48.7 _______ 59.9 Roger Smith ______ 26 ^ 1 _________________________________________ 16.5 _______ 21.0 _______ 29.2 ___________42.5 43.8 snowgolfbro _______ 10 ________________________________________ 14.5 __ 18.0 _________________ 30.0 ____________________ 47.0 _52.0 ravensrule _________12 __________________________________________15.0_17.0 __________________ 30.0 ____________38.0_40.0 C. A. P. E. _________ 1 _____________________________________________________ 20.1 ___24.5 ______30.3 ______ 35.8_ 38.5 budice2002 _______ 14 ______________________________________________________________ 26.0 29.0 31.0 _____________ 42.0_46.0 southMDwatcher ___ 20 _________________________________11.4 ________________ 20.7 ______________ 31.1 ______________ 43.8_47.9 tplbge ___________ 16 ______________________________________________17.0 ___________________ 29.0 ____34.0 ______________49.0 _53.0 showmethesnow ___ 27 ______________________________________________17.0 _______ 24.0 _______________ 34.0 ______________ 50.0 _54.0 JakkelWx _________ 30 _________________________________________________________ 24.0 ____27.0 __________35.0 ___40.0_42.0 GATECH __________ 1 _______________________________________14.214.3 ___________________________________ 35.7 _______44.9_47.5 SnowLuvrDude _____30 ______________________________________________________21.7_ 24.2 ____________________ 37.1 ______ 48.6_52.4 wxdude64 ________ 13 ________________________________________________________________ 26.1 __30.1*__________ 38.4 ______________55.8 57.4 AFewUnivBelowN ___ 1 __________________________________________ n/a ______________________28.0 _______________ 40.0 _____________ 56.0 __________ 65.0 RIC Airport ________ 1 ________________________________________________________________________ 32.2 _________________46.0 __________ 57.8*_ 61.9 62.5 osfan24 ___________ 7 _____________________________________________________ 21.2 ______________ 31.3 _________________ 46.2 _____54.3_55.9 _______________________________________________________________________________________________________________

STL has now passed four forecasts and PIA just overtook the tied lowest two forecasts. MLI is quite close to the lowest forecast there now also. Most other stations are not very close to the minimum forecast yet. (new snowfall amounts are edited into a post that was entered on Dec 17th).

If it's the ECM Friday map you looked at, that would just be a weak pulse of milder air with perhaps some light rain turning to wet snow along its trailing front, but it would not be doing much to affect the outcome of the stronger Sunday-Monday event. I am not sold on the milder solution with that track basically across s.e. VA, seems quite possible that a strong low moving along that track would be mostly or all snow for DC and Maryland.

Would suggest changing the thread title to 1-20/21 Snowstorm or whatever you think it's going to be called -- Euro 192h continues earlier trend of depicting a very powerful snowstorm for the region. GFS has lost it in a chain of frontal waves, GEM has a weaker storm a bit further north. If Euro is closest to reality, 15-30 inch potential for this one.

Euro 192h ... this x5

Some of those could take three winters to achieve.

The Euro solution for 20-21 Jan as shown looks very similar to 1899 storm and could easily drop 15-30 inches, can't see the 47 verifying though. Must be based on very large ratio assumptions in the Kuchera. Of considerable interest, the 23-24 Jan GFS scenario would plunge all of region and southeastern US into frigid arctic air with -20 wind chills and single digit temperatures. Only 1-3 inch snowfall potential as this approaches (as depicted) but on top of the earlier dump (GFS good for 8-12 on the 21st IMO) blowing snow in 50-60 mph westerly winds. Other models cut off just before this event but show little signs of going that extreme, still, it is a robust signal for 12 days. A third energy peak appears at end of the run also dropping southeast with renewed outbreak of frigid air. Second half of Jan temp anomalies could be stupendous (-10 to -15).

Nice, I went from dividing by 3 to multiplying by 2. (final calls 7.0 for all three major airports, DCA should say 9.0, CHO 12.5)

STL just moved past the minimum forecast (from me) with 7.8" reported on Friday 11th. I have boosted the table by 8" and will adjust that when a Saturday report is added. I think this is the first forecast overtaken by reality in this winter snowfall contest.

If that cold pool over eastern Canada is as deep and widespread as ECM advertises, then the jet will respond with a deep trough as shown on the day 8 panel, with any luck that low will follow a good track and bring a huge snowfall. The GFS has some wild and wacky looking looping lows out in the Atlantic at a similar time frame, not seeing quite how that shape of troughing would respond to the large-scale pattern, but GEM on the other hand just blindly produces a cutter for no obvious reason. This may be the first of three or four big storms after the impending medium sized event.

STL reports 8" snow so far.