Roger Smith

I have now updated all charts back on page five of the thread. They seem to match the latest spread sheet except that 0.2" more has fallen at BWI (3rd) so that resulted in one or two changes in the order as shown, almost everyone gaining 0.2" (losing 0.2" from total departures). I will move the last of the charts that I produced to the end of the thread when the contest seems to be done. Could be some more snow next week by the looks of some guidance.

Table of forecasts March 2019 FORECASTER ____________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA Stebo _______ (-5%) _____ +1.5 _+0.5 _--1.0 __--1.2 _+2.0 _+1.0 ___--2.5 _--2.0 _--1.5 wxallannj _______________ +1.2 _+0.8 _+0.2 __--1.0 _+2.3 _+1.5 ___+1.2 _+1.3 _--1.0 Scotty Lightning __________ +1.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 __+1.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 ____0.0 _--0.5 _+0.5 hudsonvalley21 __________ +0.7 _+0.2 _+0.4 __--0.7 _+1.6 _+0.3 ___ --0.8 _--0.1 _--0.5 BKViking ____ (-8%) ______+0.2 _--1.1 _--1.2 __--1.2 _+1.7 _+1.3 ___ --1.8 _--1.4 _--1.3 ___ Normal ______________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ Consensus __________ --0.1 _--0.5 _--1.0 __ --1.2 _+0.6 _+0.3 ___--2.5 _--0.2 _--0.8 wxdude64 ______________ --0.1 _--0.3 _--0.3 __ --4.1 _+0.6 _+0.4 ___--3.9 _+0.2 _--1.1 Tom ___________________ --0.2 _--0.5 _--0.5 __--0.9 _--0.1 _--0.3 ___--0.5 _--0.3 _--0.7 RodneyS ________________--1.8 _--1.5 _--1.1 __--4.9 _--0.7 _--0.4 ___--4.6 _--0.1 _--0.8 Roger Smith _____________--1.8 _--2.4 _--2.2 __--0.9 _--1.5 _--0.7 ___--4.5 _+1.4 _--3.5 DonSutherland.1 _________ --2.0 _--1.7 _--1.3 __--5.2 _--1.4 __ 0.0 ___--3.5 _--0.2 _--0.1 RJay __________ (-5%) ___ --2.5 _--2.5 _--2.5 __--3.5 _--1.5 __ 0.0 ___--2.5 _--1.0 __0.0 ____________________________________________________________________________ Consensus for the eleven forecasts is sixth ranked or median value. Red and blue color codes identify warmest and coldest forecasts.

With the updated table of departures (back in the thread) you can see that it will be quite a finish to this contest. I have used up just about all my previously mentioned advantage snowfall but have about 7" left at MSP+GRB+YYZ and some at APN. However, other contenders have more stored up at other locations. So it will all come down to where it snows from now to end of the contest, probably anyone in the top six at present has a chance. If you're trying to work out your chances, if you're in the red and your competitors are also in the red, you can ignore that location, you will gain errors equally from now on. If you're black and they're red, you have twice that differential advantage (but it has to snow to get paid off). If you're both in the black, your advantage is the differential but it depends on whether it snows or not to claim it. YXU is probably not a factor, it likely won't reach minimum forecast (so all errors will change equally going forward). CLE, PAH and SDF may be similar but the lowest forecasts there are in some danger of losing an advantage if there are some snowfalls. For PAH and SDF the season is almost over though. (edit Mar 9th _ SDF has now passed two lowest forecasts).

I will update my tables back in the thread when any additions are made tomorrow, think it's possible this storm could intensify, draw in some colder air overnight, and surprise a few people by morning. But I am not counting on it.

The severe outbreak is more good than bad for snow later, it shows the system is rapidly deepening and so that should pull in colder air faster, some places that have flipped from snow to rain could go back to snow after 7 pm. Not much hope for anywhere southeast of I-95 but between there and current snowfall, could change back.

Low is currently just northwest of Augusta GA and heading east-north-east, should be near ORF by midnight. Some hope therefore of a phase change back to snow for some now getting rain, darkness and better access to colder air filtering into w PA should both be helpful factors. This could have been quite a heavy snowfall for the airports if colder high pressure had been in place ahead of the low, but could have a fairly good outcome anyway for some. Heavy thunderstorms likely for anyone south of an EZF to OCE line tonight, 1-2" rainfalls likely in s.e. VA.

--1.8 _ --2.4 _ --2.2 ___ --0.9 _ --1.5 _ --0.7 ___ --4.5 _ +1.4 _ --3.5

I could see this busting on the high side of forecasts quite easily, it's a weak complex of lows with marginal but not impossible uppers, so it won't do much warm advection. Current obs in central OH moderate to heavy snow. Fingers crossed for 2-5" outcomes in parts of MD at least.

If only the Founding Fathers had chosen Marquette as the national capital, then the panic room could be shut down forever.

Wait, what, it's not 1888? I knew I should have gotten a new calendar.

I win, and President Grover Cleveland will send emissaries to find out how I do this. Even so, he'll lose the election later this year. But get this, he'll win another one in 1892. He'll be the only president to get two different numbers. Cool.

Maps are improving in the make or break Mar 5-10 period. Can you smell what the Rog is cooking?

Winter Seasonal Scoring 2018-2019 The "four seasons" contest will change this year to a rank-ordered format that will perhaps stay mostly confined to the eleven regular forecasters we have at the moment unless somebody new joins in and plays all months in any given season. So you'll see one table of total scores and one of ranks. The overall low score on ranks like in golf will win the event. FORECASTER _____________DCA_NYC_BOS __east__ ORD_ATL_IAH__cent __ c/e __ DEN_PHX_SEA __west___ all nine TOTAL wxallannj ________________204 _212 _224__ 640 __104 _202_248 __554_ 1194__194 _184 _112 __ 490___1684 DonSutherland.1 __________197 _208 _138 __ 543 __138 _166 _234 __ 528 _ 1081 __178 _226 _194__ 598 ___1679 hudsonvalley21 ___________184 _238 _180 __ 602 __110 _146 _220 __ 476__1078 __190 _210 _158 __ 558 ___1636 Scotty Lightning ___________210 _248_206 __664 __143 _162 _224 __ 529__1193 __120 _180 _ 98 __ 398 ___1591 RodneyS _________________164 _174 _202 __ 540 __108 _162 _230 __ 500__1040 __182 _194 _130 __ 506 ___1546 Roger Smith _____________ 219 _142 _198 __ 559 __ 63 _110 _242 __ 415 __ 974 __196 _148 _220 __ 564 ___1538 ___ Consensus ___________ 186 _204 _182 __ 572 __133 _ 94 _220 __ 447 _ 1019 __ 182 _202 _132 __ 516 ____1535 ___ Normal _______________152 _228 _176 __ 556__151_ 92 _204 __ 447 _ 1003 __ 149 _225 _ 95 __ 459 ____1462 BKViking _________________179 _220 _192 __ 591 __124 _ 56 _208 __ 388 __ 979 __ 190 _182 _ 96 __ 458 ____1447 Stebo ___________________180 _181 _181 __ 542 __152 _ 67 _188 __ 407 __ 949 __ 176 _204 _115 __ 495 ____1444 RJay ____________________124 _145 _166 __ 435 __119 _ 92 _183 __ 394 __ 829 __209_233 _111 __ 553 ____1382 wxdude64 _______________150 _170 _150 __ 470 __142 _ 76 _ 214 __ 432 __ 902 __ 160 _186 _104 __ 450 ____1352 Tom ___________________ 102 _184 _122 __ 408 __ 192 _ 10 _204 __ 406 __ 814 __126 _218 _138 __ 480 ____1294 ___ (1 mo only) ___ >>> IntenseBlizzard2014 ________ 16 _ 30 _ 34 __ 080 ___ 35 _ 04 _ 66 __ 105 __ 185 ___ 42 _ 92 _ 46 __ 180 _____ 365 dmillz25 __________________08 _ 00 _ 00 __ 008 ___ 08 _ 00 _ 52 __ 060 __ 068 ___ 70 _ 74 _ 64 __ 208 _____ 276 _____________________________________________________________________________________ Ranking Points east, central not counted in total as c/e is counted. ... Consensus and Normal ranks do not affect forecaster ranks. * indicates tied rankings FORECASTER ____________DCA_NYC_BOS __east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent__c/e__DEN_PHX_SEA__west__all nine__TOTAL DonSutherland.1 __________ 4 __ 5 __ 10 __ ( 6) ___5 __ 2 __ 3 __ ( 3) __ 3 ___ 7 __ 2 __ 2 ___ 1 ____ 2 ______ 46 wxallannj ________________ 3 __ 4 __ 1 __ ( 2) ___10 __1 __1 __ ( 1) __ 1 ___ 3 __ 8 __ 7 ___ 7 ____ 1 ______47 hudsonvalley21 ___________ 5 __ 2 __ 7 __ ( 4) ___ 8 __ 5 __ 6 __ ( 5) __ 4 ___ 4* __4 __ 3 ___ 3 ____ 3 ______ 54 Roger Smith ______________1 __ 11 __ 4 __( 5) ___11 _ 6 __ 2 __ ( 7) __ 7 ___ 2 __11__ 1 ___ 2 ____ 6 ______ 64 Scotty Lightning ___________ 2 __ 1 __ 2 __ ( 3) ___ 3 __ 3*__ 5 __ ( 2) __ 2 __11 __10 __10 __11 ____ 4 ______ 64 RodneyS _________________ 8 __ 8 __ 3 __ ( 8) ___ 9 __ 3*__ 4 __ ( 4) __ 5 ___ 6 __ 6 __ 5 ___ 5 ____ 5 ______ 67 ___ Consensus ___________ 5 __ 6 __ 6 __ ( 5) ___ 6 __ 7 __ 6*__ ( 6) __ 6 ___ 6*__ 6 __ 5 ___5 ___ 7 ______ 71 Stebo ___________________ 6 __ 7 __ 6 __ ( 7) ___ 2 __ 9 __10 __ ( 8) __ 8 ___ 8 __ 5 ___ 6 ___ 6 ____ 8 ______ 81 BKViking _________________ 7 __ 3 __ 5 __ ( 5) ___ 6 __10 __ 8 __ (11) __ 6 ___ 4*__ 9 __11___ 9 ____ 7 ______ 85 RJay ____________________10 __10 __ 8 __(10) ___ 7 __ 7 __11 __ (10)__10 ___ 1 __ 1 ___ 8 ___4 ____ 9 ______ 86 ___ Normal _______________9 __ 3 __ 8 __ ( 6) ___ 3 __ 7*__ 9*__ ( 6) __ 6 ___10 __ 3 __12 ___ 9 ____ 7 ______ 86 Tom ____________________11 __ 6 __11 __(11) ___ 1 __11 __ 9 __ ( 9) __11 ___10 __ 3 __ 4 ___ 8 _____11______96 wxdude64 ________________ 9 __ 9 __ 9 __ ( 9) ___ 4 __ 8 __ 7 ___( 6) __ 9 ___ 9 __ 7 ___ 9 __10 ____10______100

I'm laughing at the cone toss, not the tree damage or the potential danger to the people around where it fell. Re the traffic accident on Hwy 400 north of Toronto, a similar outcome during a storm in March 1973 but in that case more deadly results, I think eight people died in that multi-vehicle pile-up.

Seems worth capturing the image from space on this historic deep low (in this image, centre quite evident south of Timmins, ON).

I've only seen snow like that in high elevations of the Selkirk Mountains around here, or in the mid-1970s in Ontario. There was a time in January 1976 when six to eight feet of snow covered most of the London ON region and snowplow drifts were up above ten feet high, the city works people had to go around the side streets placing poles with flags on them to mark the location of fire hydrants. In early April 1975 there was a storm like this one in central Ontario and it closed highways for a week with people stranded in community centres and church basements in towns north of Toronto. But that storm started with only a foot of snow at the most on the ground, so one can only imagine how much worse this one will be for future recovery and travel issues. One thing I can advise (for the Minnesota open country especially) is that if you don't clear the big undulating drifts from driveways etc, they will freeze hard in the freeze-thaw cycle of the strong sunshine and cold temperatures to follow, and when they freeze, they are going to last 2-3 weeks minimum.

Hang in there, looks like another 10-15" event for the u.p. next weekend. At least there should be four fairly decent days to clear snow between Tuesday and Friday.

Gusting to 52 knots at Houghton MI and that's not as exposed as some places might be. Highest gust I could find from the storm was 57 knots at BUF. Low is currently located around Elliot Lake ON about 100 miles northeast of SSM at 970 mbs. Agree in general with the wording of EC blizzard warning but some local amounts may surprise, Lake Huron has minimal ice cover, betting that a mega-squall band sets up across north-central Simcoe County (Midland-Orillia area) which I have seen in real life a few dozen times, you can get 30-50 cm in a few hours when that one gets going. It was always a question driving north into that area, where do you hit the wall of snow, I could usually tell from wind direction within one or two concession roads in the stretch between Barrie and Orillia (used to live in that area including 1974-78, some big snowfall events that gave a similar outcome to what we're seeing in these pictures). Parallel bands from central Lake Huron further south mostly 20-30 cm max, one probably running Goderich to Listowel roughly and another Bayfield to Stratford, but highly variable amounts likely in banding.

The above discussion about the impact of snow at the six locations mentioned is now about two-thirds used up by the snow that just fell at MQT, MSP and LSE (with 2" estimated for APN, a total of 30" at these locations). Later edit, 2.5" also added at GRB, so now a total of 32.5" most of which is confirmed. Most who had some surplus there have now used that up and are accumulating. I still have small amounts left to use up at MSP and LSE, and others have some to use at MQT. The new standings show that the race is tightening up near the middle of the pack.

Predict the temperature anomalies (F deg) relative to 1981-2010 normal values for DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA ... deadline for entries is 06z Friday March 1st ... Good luck !!

IAD 20.5" DCA 13.0" BWI 17.8" RIC 2.5" MBY ... 6" on top of current frozen 6" ... but I'm not in MA so I'll say 40" at some ski resort in WV

Scotland. Outer coasts of British Columbia. Victoria Island, NWT. Iceland. take your pick (and your bug spray)

March 5-7 is the jackpot time period, I think this is when the trof will be deepest and energy peaks around then.

<<<<< ===== ----- ----- ----- ----- Annual Contest Scoring Jan-Feb 2019 ----- ----- ----- ----- ===== >>>>> A new look for the annual table this year, will continue with the all nine format of monthly scoring. Best score tallies will be handled in a separate table. From now to end of 2019, best scores will be tabulated for the eleven regular participants and this will continue with any new or temporary additions getting best scores in addition to those. Highest cumulative scores are shown in red in this table (for nine locations) or bold for subtotals. FORECASTER _____________DCA_NYC_BOS __east__ ORD_ATL_IAH__cent __ c/e __ DEN_PHX_SEA __west___ all nine TOTAL DonSutherland.1 __________152 _172 _110 __ 434 __ 98 _112 _134 __ 344 __ 778 __ 122 _130 _138__390____1168 Stebo ___________________168 _163 _175__ 506 __ 97 _ 67 _136 __ 300 __ 806 __ 146 _140 _ 57 __ 343 ____1149 hudsonvalley21 ___________134 _184 _136 __ 454 __ 90 _ 98 _136 __ 324 __ 778 __ 128 _140 _ 96 __ 364 ____1142 ___ Consensus ___________ 156 _172 _150 __ 478 __ 98 _ 86 _148 __ 332 __ 810 __ 126 _116 _ 78 __ 320 ____1130 wxallannj ________________144 _156 _168 __ 468 __ 44 _144_158 __ 346__ 814 __ 116 _110 _ 72 __ 298 ____1112 wxdude64 _______________146 _170 _150 __ 466 __138 _ 70 _146 __ 354 __820 __ 152_102 _32 __ 286 ____1106 Roger Smith _____________ 194 _120_170 __ 484 __ 28 _102 _170__ 300 __784 ___ 96 _ 82 _130 __ 308 ____ 1092 RodneyS _________________124 _126 _166 __ 416 __ 58 _138 _150 __ 346__ 762 __ 118 _108 _ 90 __ 316 ____1078 BKViking _________________144 _184 _160 __488 __108 _ 56 _136 __ 300 __ 788 __ 144 _ 94 _ 46 __ 284 ____1072 Scotty Lightning ___________150 _170 _138 __ 458 __ 98 _ 98 _130 __ 326 __ 784 ___ 80 _ 94 _ 64 __ 238 ____1022 RJay ____________________100 _118 _139 __ 357 __ 95 _ 78 _129 __ 302 __ 659 __ 141 _150 _ 59 __ 350 ____1009 ___ Normal _______________112 _180 _128 __ 420 __108_ 58 _128 __ 294 __ 714 ___ 89 _131 _ 61 __ 281 _____995 Tom _____________________ 72 _152 _ 92 __ 316 __180 _ 06 _132 __ 318 __ 634 ___88 _122 _ 86 __ 296 _____930 _______________________________________________________________________ Best scores in each category (nine locations, three regional subtotals, and central-eastern or "original six" subtotal (c/e). These are best scores in each monthly contest, best total scores are highlighted in the table above in red. Order for best scores will be based on rank in table above. FORECASTER __________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent__c/e__DEN_PHX_SEA__west___all nine DonSutherland.1 _________0 ___1 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___0 ___0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___2 ___ 1 ____ 0 Stebo __________________1 ___0 ___0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 1 hudsonvalley21 __________0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___0 ___0 ___ 1 ____ 1 ___Consensus ___________1 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 0 wxallannj _______________0 ___1 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___1 ___0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 0 wxdude64 ______________ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 0 Roger Smith ____________ 2 ___0 ___0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___1 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 0 RodneyS _______________ 0 ___0 ___1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___0 ___1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 0 BKViking _______________ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 0 Scotty Lighning __________ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 0 RJay ___________________0 ___0 ___1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___1 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ Normal _____________ 0 ___1 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 0 Tom ___________________0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___0 ___1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 0 __________________________________________________________________________________ Extreme forecasts STANDINGS to date in 2019 DonSutherland1 ______ 4-0 Stebo ______________ 2-0 Roger Smith _________ 2-2 RodneyS ____________ 2-2 wxallannj ____________1-0 RJay ________________1-0 Normal ______________1-0 Tom ________________1-1 ______________________________________________________________________________

DSM will be right in the path of this low, expect cold rain mixing with sleet until the low center passes overhead by about 9 pm CST, then S+ for 4-6 hours, winds backing from ENE to NNE then NNW 40 to 55 mph, likely to give 5-8" there, 8-12" a few miles northwest. Will rapidly become a white-out for highways in Iowa and southern Minnesota. Would predict 10-15" for southeast MN and northwest WI, local 20" maxes and 20-30" into western u.p. of MI with more lake enhancement available there.