Roger Smith

Table of forecasts for April, 2021 FORECASTER _____________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA ___ bias RJay ______________________ +2.5 _ +2.5 _ +2.5 __ +3.5 _ +2.0 _ +3.0 ___ +2.5 _ +1.5 __ 0.0 ___ +1.08 BKViking __________________ +1.8 _ +1.7 _ +1.2 __ +2.4 _ +1.1 _ +1.4 ___+0.2 _ +1.1 _ --0.9 ___ --0.03 wxdude64 _________________+1.8 _ +1.6 _ +1.9 __ +2.2 _ +1.7 _ +2.0 ___ +0.8 _ +1.3 _ --0.6 ___ +0.27 Tom ___________ (-5%) ______+1.5 _ +1.6 _ +1.6 __ +1.7 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 ___ +1.2 _ +0.9 _ --0.5 ___ --0.03 DonSutherland1 ___________ +1.4 _ +1.7 _ +1.6 __ +3.6 _ +0.2 _ +0.3 ___ +2.7 _ +1.0 _ --0.8 ___ +0.16 hudsonvalley21 ____________+1.2 _ +1.3 _ +1.5 __ +1.9 _ +0.7 _ +1.2 ___ +2.0 _ +1.7 _ --0.4 ___ +0.09 ___ Consensus _____________+1.2 _ +1.3 _ +1.2 __ +1.7 _ +1.0 _ +1.2 ___ +2.0 _ +1.5 _ --0.8 Scotty Lightning ___________ +1.0 _ +1.0 _ +0.5 ___ 0.0 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 ___ +2.0 _ +2.0 _ +1.0 ___ --0.09 so_whats_happening ______ +0.8 _ +0.5 __ 0.0 __ +1.8 _ +1.6 _ +2.1 ___ +2.2 _ +2.8 _ +0.8 ___ +0.26 Roger Smith _______________+0.2 _ --1.4 _ --2.7 ___ 0.0 _ +1.5 _ +3.0 ___ +4.5 _ +3.0 _ --0.5 ___ --0.30 ___ Normal _________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ --1.14 wxallannj _________________ --0.4 _ --0.1 _ --0.4 __ --0.5 _ --1.0 _ --0.9 ___ --0.5 _ +1.5 _ +2.0 ___ --1.18 RodneyS __________________--0.5 _ --0.2 __ 0.0 __ +1.6 _ +0.3 _ +0.6 ___ +3.7 _ +1.1 _ --1.6 ___ --0.70 __________________________________________________________________________ Color codes show warmest and coldest forecasts. All forecasts above normal at PHX. Bias is a measure of your average departure from consensus forecasts (which average 1.14 above normal). There may be different tendencies in the east and west in some cases.

<<<<<< ================ - - - - Annual Scoring for 2021 (Jan-Mar) - - - - ==================== >>>>>>>> High scores for nine locations shown in red, high scores for regions in bold. FORECASTER _________________DCA_NYC_BOS__east_ ORD_ATL_IAH__cent_ c/e ___ DEN_PHX_SEA__west___TOTALS DonSutherland1 _______________184 _190 _164 __538 __165 _206 _168 __539 __1077 __150 _238 _222 __610 ____ 1687 wxdude64 _____________________215 _213 _219 __647 __ 67 _128 _155 __350 ___ 997 __161 _249 _229 __ 639 ____ 1636 ___ Consensus ________________ 208 _218 _206 __632 __ 72 _152 _160 __384 __ 1016 __136 _236 _228 __600 ____ 1616 BKViking ______________________ 182 _212 _210 __604 __ 62 _178 _166 __406 __1010 __126 _234 _236 __596 ____ 1606 RodneyS ______________________ 170 _200 _194 __564 __ 87 _152 _122 __361 ___ 925 __174 _250 _256 __680 ____ 1605 hudsonvalley21 ________________ 198 _194 _210 __602 __ 81 _182 _170 __433 __1035 __108 _214 _238 __560 ____ 1595 Tom ___________________________ 213 _238 _241 __692 __ 48 _128 _155 __331 __1023 __119 _257 _172 __548 ____ 1571 wxallannj ______________________ 180 _218 _194 __592 __ 92 _148 _140 __380 ___ 972 __102 _224 _210 __536 ____ 1508 so_whats_happening ___________217 _190 _161 __568 __103 _229 _107 __439 __1007 __ 97 _223 _162 __482 ____ 1489 Scotty Lightning _______________ 166 _188 _168 __522 __ 18 _176 _182 __376 ___ 898 __148 _220 _196 __ 564 ____ 1462 RJay __________________________ 196 _196 _158 __550 __ 98 _146 _158 __402 ___ 952 __114 _170 _156 __440 _____ 1392 ___ Normal _____________________136 _168 _168 __472 __ 10 _116 _130 __256 ___ 728 __158 _250 _204 __612 ____ 1340 Roger Smith ___________________ 122 _114 _ 84 __320 __111 _ 98 _214 __423 ___ 743 __134 _ 158 _196 __490 ____ 1233 ____________________________________________________________________________ Best scores for the locations and regions FORECASTER _______________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ east __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ cent __ c/e ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA __ west ___ Totals DonSutherland1 ______________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 2 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 2 ____ 1 _____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 0 _____ 1 __ Jan wxdude64 ____________________ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 2 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 2 _____ 1 __ Mar (t) ___ Consensus _______________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 _____ 0 _____ 0 __ BKViking _____________________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 _____ 1 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 __ RodneyS _____________________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 1 _____ 1 __ Feb hudsonvalley21 _______________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 2 _____ 0 _____ 0 __ Tom __________________________ 1 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 1 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 __ wxallannj _____________________ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 __ so_whats_happening _________ 2 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 ____ 2 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 _____ 1 __ Mar (t) Scotty Lightning ______________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 __ RJay _________________________ 0 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 1 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 1 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 __ ___ Normal ___________________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 1 _____ 0 __ Roger Smith __________________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 1 ____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 __ ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- EXTREME FORECAST STANDINGS High score must go to either the extreme warm or cold forecast, or second most extreme, for a station to qualify. So far this year, 16 locations out of 27 have qualified, 4 in Jan, 5 in Feb and 7 in March. Of those, ten were awarded to warmest forecasts, six to coldest. A loss in the standings represents a case where second most extreme forecast had the high score and the win for that month. Normal can only win along with a forecaster. There has been one shared win accounting for the 17 total wins (excl Normal). FORECASTER _________ Jan __ Feb __ Mar _____ TOTAL to date DonSutherland1 _______ 2-0 __ 1-0 __ 2-0 _____ 5-0 Roger Smith ___________ 2-1 __ 2-0 __ ---- _____ 4-1 wxdude64 _____________ ---- __ 1-0 __ 2-0 _____ 3-0 so_whats_happening ___---- __ 1-0 __ 2-0 _____ 3-0 RJay ___________________ ---- __ ---- __ 2-0 _____ 2-0 Normal _________________---- __ ---- __ 2-0 _____ 2-0 __________________________________________

+0.2 __ --1.4 __ --2.7 __ 0.0 __ +1.5 __ +3.0 ___ +4.5 __ +3.0 __ --0.5 Blocking in Atlantic may mean a lot of northerly flow east of about CLE to BWI, warm in the central plains but another cool trough west coast.

Final scoring for March 2021 Final anomalies __________ +4.4 _ +3.3 _ +3.7 __ +6.3 _ +4.8 _ +1.7 ___ --1.0 _ --1.1 _ --0.9 ... small late penalties of 1 or 2 points incorporated where * or ** appear. For slightly larger late penalties on Tom, raw scores in orange, adjusted below in regular type. ORD was scored by "max 60" rule but ATL ended up with a raw score of 72 so by the rules it was scored by raw scores for all forecasts. The scores marked with ^ symbol are adjusted up from raw scores to progression (60, 54, 48 etc). Late penalties reduced some by 1 pts. FORECASTER _________________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent_ c/e __ DEN_PHX_SEA__west____TOTAL wxdude64 __________ (-1%) _____73*_ 79*_ 63*__215 __ 06^_ 26 _ 89*__119 __ 334 __ 75*_ 55*_ 95*___ 225 ____ 561 so_whats_happening (-2%) _____73*_ 78** 61*__212 __ 47^_ 71*_ 65*__183 __ 395 __ 43*_ 33*_ 90**__ 166 ____ 561 hudsonvalley21 ________________52 _ 68 _ 68 __ 188 __ 30^_ 52 _ 88 ___ 170 __ 358 __ 48 _ 44 _ 98 ____ 190 ____ 548 Tom ___________________________56 _ 74 _ 70 __ 200 __ 24^_ 40 _ 96 __ 160 __ 360 __ 60 _ 68 _ 78 ____ 206 _ 566 ____________________ (-5%) ______53 _ 70 _ 67 __ 190 __ 23 _ 38 _ 91 ___ 152 __ 342 __ 57 _ 65 _ 74 ____ 196 ____ 538 RJay __________________________ 62 _ 84 _ 76 __ 222 __ 42^_ 34 _ 94 ___170 __ 392 __ 30 _ 28 _ 78 ____ 136 ____ 528 ___ Consensus ________________ 50 _ 64 _ 52 __ 166 __ 30^_ 28 _ 94 ___ 152 __ 318 __ 58 _ 54 _ 98 ____ 210 ____ 528 DonSutherland 1 ______________ 42 _ 62 _ 50 __ 154 __ 60^_ 54 _ 72 __ 186 __ 340 __ 36 _ 72 _ 76 ____ 184 ____ 524 BKViking ______________________ 50 _ 62 _ 46 __ 158 __ 42^_ 26 _ 94 __ 162 __ 320 __ 58 _ 56 _ 78 ____ 192 ____ 512 wxallannj ______________________40 _ 64 _ 52 __ 156 __ 54^_ 28 _ 92 __ 174 __ 330 __ 36 _ 54 _ 82 ____ 172 ____ 502 Scotty Lightning _______________32 _ 54 _ 36 __ 122 __ 12^_ 24 _ 94 __ 130 __ 252 __ 60 _ 48 _ 82 ____ 190 ____ 442 ___ Normal ____________________12 _ 34 _ 26 __ 072 __ 10^_ 04 _ 66 ___ 080 __ 152 __ 80 _ 78 _ 82 ____ 240 ____ 392 RodneyS ______________________ 10 _ 30 _ 24 __ 064 __ 18^_ 04 _ 70 __ 092 __ 156 __ 62 _ 66 _ 92 ____ 220 ____ 376 Roger Smith ___________________00 _ 06 _ 00 __ 006 __ 00 _ 00 _ 56 ___ 056 __ 058 __ 60 _ 54 _ 94 ____ 208 ____ 266 __________________________________________________________________________________________________________ EXTREME FORECAST REPORT Five locations saw a high score going to warmest forecast(s) and two for the coldest. DCA had a tie between so_whats_happening and wxdude64 who both predicted +3.1 (final +4.4). NYC and BOS both go to RJay with +2.5 forecasts (NYC prov +3.5, BOS final +3.7). ORD heads to DonSutherland1 (+3.0) (actual +6.3) and ATL to so_whats_happening with +3.2 (actual +4.8). DEN will be a win for wxdude64 (-2.2) as well as Normal (actual -1.0). PHX will be a win for DonSutherland1 with +0.3 as well as Normal, with outcome -1.1. IAH (+1.7) and SEA (-0.9) are out of the running with consensus closer than the extreme forecasts. So in total that's two wins each for Normal, RJay, DonSutherland1, wxdude64 and and so_whats_happening. ______________________________________________ Annual update has been posted and is now also confirmed. Looks very competitive after March. We had a tie for scoring lead in March, congrats to wxdude64 and so_whats_happening who overcame slight late penalties; Tom actually had a higher score before his somewhat larger late penalty reduced the outcome to fourth place.

Four seasons contest results -- winter 2020-21 Belated report on the first instalment of the Four Seasons contest report. Points awarded for total scores Dec 2020 to Feb 2021. Highest total gets ten points and second receives seven, from there down to two points for seventh and one point for anyone who entered 2/3 contests or more. FORECASTER _____________ TOTAL SCORE DEC 2020 + JAN-FEB 2021 ___ POINTS DonSutherland1 ___________ 730 + 1163 = 1893 _________________________ 10 RodneyS __________________ 616 + 1229 = 1845 __________________________ 7 ___ Consensus ____________ 689 + 1088 = 1777 __________________________ 6 hudsonvalley21 ___________ 716 + 1047 = 1763 __________________________ 6 BKViking __________________ 668 + 1094 = 1762 __________________________5 Tom ______________________ 668 + 1033 = 1701 ___________________________4 wxallannj _________________ 668 + 1006 = 1674 ___________________________ 3 Scotty Lightning __________ 586 + 1020 = 1606 ____________________________2 wxdude64 ________________ 500 + 1075 = 1575 ___________________________ 1 RJay ______________________ 686 + 864 = 1550 ____________________________ 1 Roger Smith _______________580 + 959 = 1539 ____________________________ 1 ___ Normal ________________ 524 + 950 = 1474 ____________________________ 1 so_whats_happening ______ dnp + 928 = 928 ____ (2/3) ___________________ 1 ______________________________________________________________ Points for consensus and Normal do not alter the progression of points for forecasters.

Predict the April temp anomalies (F deg rel to 1981-2010 still) for DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA The usual late penalties apply.

The Toronto file from the research is now also available on the same Netweather link (see above). This one resembles the NYC file but has additional features such as the tracking of record highs and lows from "starter" extremes in the period 1840-70, to the final values (which were usually later than that). Some days have had as many as a dozen records set from the starter record to the present time. Others did one change and that was it, a few managed to hold on to their original starter records (Aug 24, 1854 at 100 F for example). This is the second longest climate data base ever created (I believe) after the CET/EWP which go back into the 17th and 18th centuries. That is not to say that the Toronto data are the second oldest known, I have access to several data bases that are older but not continuous from then to now. Many of the daily temperature extremes at Toronto are in the same record spells that set NYC records. Sometimes they are one or two days earlier. Both locations had their highest temperature of record on July 9, 1936. In the case of Toronto that was one of three consecutive days but the mean daily temperature was higher on the 9th. Once again, I'd like to post these data bases here but they are too large to upload to American Weather Forum. My plan is to create a website with the data bases and other info so that eventually I won't be totally dependent on Net-weather for hosting them.

Winter Snowfall contest 2020-2021 -- Table of entries _ updated after some heavy snowfall at DEN and a few other small additions in March _ the table is now set by ranked total departures to date. The second value in brackets represents errors that can only increase (locations with more snow than forecast). The red highlighted numbers are best forecasts at this stage, and those underlined are settled as such because all forecasts have already been passed. BOS is tied for best forecasts on either side (37.0, actual 38.5, 40.0). (Mar 31 update _ Only DEN added any snow since last report, as shown. ) FORECASTER ______ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ DTW _ BUF ___ DEN _ SEA _ BTV ___ current total dep snowfall to Mar 31___5.4 __ 38.6 _ 38.5 ___48.8 _ 41.3 _ 72.1 __ 67.6 _ 12.9 _ 59.5 RJay ________________8.0 _ 20.0 _ 35.0 __ 40.0 _ 40.0 _ 75.0 __ 65.0 __ 4.0 _ 65.0 _____ 54.7 (43.7) __ consensus _______14.5 _ 28.2 _ 40.0 __ 40.0 _ 44.1 _ 87.0 __ 59.6 __ 5.1 _ 78.3 ______ 82.1 (35.0) wxallannj __________ 21.0 _ 29.0 _ 37.0 __ 43.0 _ 47.0 _ 70.0 __ 51.0 __ 5.2 _ 77.0 _____ 82.1 (43.3) hudsonvalley21 ____ 16.3 _ 30.4 _ 44.5 __ 39.7 _ 48.2 _ 87.9 __ 61.1 __ 6.8 _ 83.2 _____ 93.2 (29.9) wxdude64 _________ 13.2 _ 29.7 _ 45.9 __ 41.7 _ 44.2 _ 97.7 __ 73.2 __ 7.1 _ 84.1 _____ 95.7 (21.8) Don Sutherland1 ____ 6.0 _ 11.5 _ 28.0 __ 38.5 _ 44.0 _ 87.0 __ 57.5 __ 3.4 _ 72.9 _____ 99.1 (67.5) Tom _______________ 18.1 _ 29.8 _ 42.5 __ 43.3 _ 44.1 _102.5__ 59.6 __ 4.2 _ 78.3 _____ 99.7 (31.0) RodneyS ____________ 4.4 __ 8.5 _ 20.0 __ 31.6 _ 38.0 _ 78.9 __ 55.5 __ 5.1 _ 66.6 _____103.9 (90.0) Roger Smith _______ 14.5 _ 28.2 _ 60.5 __ 35.5 _ 39.9 _ 80.5 __ 55.5 _ 12.5 _ 90.5 ____ 108.1 (37.6) Scotty Lightning ____15.0 _ 25.0 _ 40.0 __ 50.0 _ 40.0 _125.0__ 75.0 __ 3.0 _ 90.0 ____ 127.9 (24.8) snowfall to Mar 28 ___5.4 __ 38.6 _ 38.5 ___48.8 _ 41.3 _ 72.1 __ 67.6 _ 12.9 _ 59.5 ___________________________________________________________________________________________________ Mar 17 _ RJay and wxallannj can only separate with snow at DCA (more than 8.0" or 2.6" more than now), BUF (up to 2.9" more can be an advantage to RJay, after that no differential), DET (up to 5.7" more can be an advantage for wxallannj) and DEN (up to 4.2" more can help RJay). Another 5.5" at BTV will be needed before wxallannj can gain an advantage there. Other locations are already out of play. Others have a mathematical route to a win in the contest too. It is quite likely that 4.2" more would fall at DEN so that would leave RJay 8.4" further ahead than now (19.0" advantage at present, would be 27.4"). Also, the 2.9" available to RJay at BUF seems likely, so that gives another 5.8" boost to the differential (33.2"). Wxallannj would need to find 16.6" of advantages at his prospects (DCA > 8.0, DTW 5.7 available, and any amounts greater than 5.5" at BTV. This probably means overall it's quite close at the top. Mar 29 _ As to the above, more than 4.2" has been added at DEN which does leave RJay further ahead. No other changes yet. Only wxdude64 and Scotty L have any further gains to make at DEN and twice the difference on those gains would not bring them within striking distance of the lead so they would need some other help to move up further. April snowfalls at BTV look to be their best hope. Mar 31 _ Another 1.5" added at DEN on 30th. NOTE: UPDATED FOR APRIL SNOWFALLS in APRIL CONTEST THREAD (Apr 23)

Re the NYC data base, once again thanks to Don Sutherland for providing the basic data (columns A to E are his original file except that I've added recent months from CF6 official data) and everything else is work I've done to support the research thread on Netweather. I plan to post all that on a stand-alone website just so it isn't at the mercy of another host, going forward. Unfortunately it is too big to upload to American Weather Forum. It is however downloadable from Netweather if you follow the link in the previous post. As stated above, this excel file will be posted every three months after each meteorological season comes to an end, so if you're interested in the file, you won't necessarily have to update it yourself. Note that site navigation on the excel file is provided in a block located in columns GD to GR and rows 1 to 21 (this location is repeated in the intro panel upper left corner). If you spot any errors (most likely to be color code omissions as the data base feeds directly into the tables) let me know and they will be fixed for the next edition. NEW YORK CITY (NYC) DATA BASE 1869 to end of FEB 2021 with record values and averages in tables ... ... available at this time only from Net-weather forum due to size issues, proceed to research thread as noted in previous post, link to the file is in the last post made by me in the thread on page 3. (it may not remain the last post until next upload)

Okay, then, here are the anomalies we have run up so far as the weather turns quite warm in many areas the past few days after a cold start to the month ... _________________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 11th ____ (10d anom) ___ +0.8 _ --1.5 _ --1.8 __ +8.2 _ +1.4 _ --0.5 ___ +7.8 _ +3.4 __ 0.0 21st ____ (20d anom) ___ +2.5 _ --0.1 _ +0.6 __ +5.9 _ +3.7 _ +1.9 ___ +0.3 _ --0.8 _--0.5 29th ____ (28d anom) ___ +4.4 _ +3.2 _ +3.3 __ +6.4 _ +5.5 _ +1.8 ___ --0.7 _ --1.6 _--0.7 11th ____ (p20d anom) __--1.5 _ --2.5 _ --3.5 __ +2.0 _ --0.5 __ 0.0 ___ +2.0 _ +1.5 __ 0.0 11th ____ (p27d anom) __--1.0 _ --2.0 _ --3.0 __ +1.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ +1.0 _ +1.0 __ 0.0 21st ____ (p31d anom) __ +2.0 _ +0.5 _ +1.0 __ +3.5 _ +2.5 _ +1.5 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 _ --0.5 29th ____ (p31d anom) __ +4.5 _ +3.5 _ +3.5 __ +6.0 _ +6.0 _ +2.0 ___ --1.0 _ --1.5 _ --0.5 1st Apr __ (final anoms) _ +4.4 _ +3.3 _ +3.7 __ +6.3 _ +4.8 _ +1.7 ___ --1.0 _ --1.1 _ --0.9 11th _ Much colder again within a day or two, especially over New England but a fairly extensive spread of colder air through mid-month; the pattern from day 11 to 16 looks relatively close to average. The projections to end of the month are based on a generally near normal regime starting out with small positive anomalies and moving to somewhat larger negative anomalies before the month ends. I will wait a few days and adjust the provisionals around the 24th then post some estimated scoring for later corrections. Snowfall contest update will be posted in this thread around mid-month, not much has changed since Feb 28 update in the last thread. 21st _ After a few very warm days, colder weather did arrive but the overall change to anomalies was in some cases more upward than downward since the previous report. 29th _ It has stayed quite warm in the east; revised projections will make a reliable basis for provisional scoring (to follow). Snowfall contest updated, only DEN has seen snow since last update. 31st _ 1st Apr __ Final anomalies are now all posted and scoring will soon be complete.

I have been doing some extensive research on historical weather trends at NYC and Toronto which both have long periods of record, and any other data from New England that extends back further such as Caswell's Providence RI journal (1831 to 1860). In the course of that, I was alerted to the existence of a daily data base and the official monthly temperature website for NYC Central Park. At some point soon, I can share that data base as expanded to show daily records and other derived products. In the meantime, it was made official (on their website publication) that 2020 had the same average as 2012 (57.3 F) to tie for warmest year on record. Three other years were 0.1 cooler. As you are no doubt aware November 2020 did the heavy lifting by finishing first as well, December could have pushed the year over the top but the mid-month snowstorm probably cut into the mean just enough to prevent that. Will provide a link to my deluxe data file soon, just in final edit now. Thanks to Don Sutherland who helped me acquire the data and alerted me to the website in question. We recently found a typo in that and queried it (May 2005) resulting in an edit on their part, what was 59.8 now reads 58.9 which makes that month even colder in the bottom portions of the May rankings. I could use some advice with one issue. For Toronto's data, I assumed an urban heat island began around 1881 and increased by 0.1 C deg a decade to about 1980 and then stabilized at that figure as urban heat islands tend to grow only marginally for very large cities, and in this day and age some improvements to air quality and the midtown parkland setting there probably counter any further heat island growth. What would informed readers estimate to be the magnitude of the NYC heat island effect? I went with the same progression in my first draft, except that I assumed also that NYC having started to grow large before Toronto, already had 0.3 C heat island in 1869 when the weather station began recording, so that by applying the same corrections as Toronto, I am implying a heat island of 1.4 and saying that my adjusted figures are for comparison to a small heat island situation (0.3) rather than no heat island as the Toronto data come out. Or in other words, these adjusted figures would, if compared to each other, be like a comparison of rural Toronto to slightly urban New York City at each point. On my current schedule of adjustments, I think 1949 and also 1953 come out a bit ahead of 2012 and 2020 (which stay equal) since we only subtract 0.7 C or about 1.2 F from its mean annual temperature for comparison. 1990,91,98 and 2016 all come in just behind these tied for fifth warmest in the UHI-adjusted ranks. (any years tied after 1981 remain tied after adjustments). This is an issue I would like to address, has the heat island perhaps continued to increase slightly, or even decrease slightly since 1981? So am I in the ballpark of a good adjustment by saying 0.1 C for 1881-90, 0.2 for 1891-1900, 0.3 for 1901-1910, etc, ... 0.7 for 1941-50, 0.8 for 1951-60, 0.9 for 1961-70 and 1.0 for 1971-80, then finally 1.1 for all years 1981 onward? Is there any case to be made for any decrease? I have also considered a more fine tuned approach where I reduce dry months more than wet months (cloud cover differences). That may come in a stage two and it would need to be done for both locations. I assumed that 19th century heat islands were weak because of the lack of vehicles and home heating, but not zero because of albedo changes mainly. I have seen research into growth of heat islands and know how they diminish in their growth inverse-exponentially. Also for Toronto I had the benefit of some reasonably close rural stations with long periods of records to calibrate my estimates. For NYC the entire area is so urbanized that I find it difficult to estimate what the mean temperature would be at a Central Park like setting with no city around it (something that hasn't existed since about 1750 I suppose). Any thoughts on this welcome. The long term goal of this project is to provide a climate record similar to the CET (Central England Temperature) series in which they claim to have factored out the urban effect although the three locations they use are fairly rural anyway. Toronto at 1.1 C is fairly conservative, obviously it's more like 5-8 C deg on a clear, calm night especially in winter, but the adjustment needs to be scaled to all weather types and on a cloudy, windy day the urban heat island there is probably no bigger than 0.5 C, if that. This is where the study resides at present time, on the UK equivalent forum "Net-weather" https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/93113-toronto-180-a-north-american-data-base-of-180-years-now-includes-nyc-1869-2020/page/2/ You'll see tables comparing NYC and Toronto using the assumptions listed above, but these could always be changed in a later version.

Thanks to all who responded, I've heard back from most by private message plus the two responses above. So the plan will be to continue on with whatever normal value is announced for use, I do anticipate a change to 1991-2020 at some point later this year, until the NWS informs us that they are making the change, the 1981-2010 normals will be used (a) to set their end of month anomalies in reporting products such as CF6, and (b) by me when scoring the contest. The only problem may come in the month when a change occurs, if they make the change during the month and I've already taken in your forecasts on the assumption they would be relative to 1981-2010. If that happens, I will deal with it in consultation with you, some may feel that if they had known the end of month would be against 1991-2020 but they predicted vs 1981-2010, it would require an adjustment. That partly depends on what month and what the differentials are. And it may take some digging to find the old and the new normal values so we know what we are working with. So thanks for the input, I was already thinking we might need to address this some month around May or June, whenever they do bring these new normals into operation.

Just for general interest,, this is what I calculate to be the differential between 1981-2010 and 1991-2020 NYC averages. The numbers are to be read as (1991-2020) minus (1981-2010) for each month. This is not official and is based on their official website monthly values with my excel program doing the average in each case. JAN __ FEB __ MAR __ APR __ MAY __ JUN __ JUL __ AUG __ SEP __ OCT __ NOV __ DEC ____ YEAR 0.5 ___ 0.0 ___--0.2 ___ 0.1 ___ 0.3 ___ 0.1 ___ 0.5 ___ 0.3 ___ 0.7 ___ 0.5 ___ --0.2 ___ 1.0 _____ 0.3 March and November will drop slightly, the other ten months will go up by various amounts, December showing the largest increase, followed by September. These would be the new normals according to my way of calculating which is to take an average of all daily highs and lows, the normals may come from averages of monthly means and be very slightly different from these. I show these to two decimals partly to indicate where the official numbers are perhaps more likely to come out differently. 33.55 _ 35.73 _ 42.71 _ 53.52 _ 63.05 _ 71.92 _ 77.37 _ 75.98 _ 69.08 _ 57.81 _ 47.87 _ 38.91 ___ 55.62 The Jan number rounds down to 33.5 and the May number rounds upward to 63.1 (based on third decimals not shown here).

I hadn't mentally addressed that question, have been assuming we would all know in advance when they were going to switch the reference point and make our forecasts based on that expectation? I will ask each regular entrant what they think of the situation by private message and get back to the group on that. I was told by Don S that the 1991-2020 normals won't be "ratified" before May of this year so it seems unlikely to me that they would put them into use before that. Also I assume people made their forecasts so far with reference to 1981-2010 averages. I will ask if anyone has made any forecasts on any other assumption. The 1991-2020 normals are probably going to be only 0.2 to 0.5 higher, I already worked out NYC on a file I am developing and the results are in that range generally. If others read this and want to comment, go ahead but look for a message in your in-box. The policy I would most likely go with is to use whatever normal they use whether people know in advance or not, if the differentials are fairly small I can't see where it would greatly influence the outcome. If we go retroactive then the main beneficiary would be anyone who went a bit warmer than consensus on all locations, their errors might then shrink down by 6-10 points a station as the new normals would be closer to their forecasts than the current ones (in most cases). Unless I hear a different consensus from the group, we would use the anomaly reported on the 1st of the next month on the relevant CF6 monthly summaries, and if they change those anomalies later, so be it, the first reported value would be "contest official." There is no absolute guarantee that the CF6 has the final actuals either, I seem to remember one occasion when they sent a memo around saying that Boston actuals had been changed several weeks after the month had ended for some reason, and we didn't go back in and change the scores for that month although it probably changed the outcome. Maybe we should have done so? I might not have been scoring then, this was perhaps back around 2009. If you want to suggest any possible approaches to this, be my guest. I started scoring this contest around 2011 and I don't remember if we had a similar situation at the end of 1971-2000 normals or not. The material is lost over on defunct Eastern Weather Forum now, including the trainwreck of the March 2012 contest where NYC ran +12 or something like that. Even the 2190-2220 normals would have failed to save anyone there.

Table of forecasts for March 2021 FORECASTER __________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA ____ Bias vs con wxdude64 __________ (-1%) _____+3.1 _ +2.3 _ +1.9 ___ --1.3 _ +1.1 _ +1.2 ___ --2.2 _ +1.1 _ --1.1 ____ --0.59 so_whats_happening (-2%) _____+3.1 _ +2.3 _ +1.8 ___ +2.6 _ +3.2 _ +3.4 ___ +1.8 _ +2.2 _ --0.5 ____ +0.94 RJay __________________________ +2.5 _ +2.5 _ +2.5 ___ +2.5 _ +1.5 _ +2.0 ___ +2.5 _ +2.5 _ --2.0 ____ +0.57 Tom _______________ (-5%) ______+2.2 _ +2.0 _ +2.2 ___ +1.6 _ +1.8 _ +1.9 ___ +1.0 _ +0.5 _ +0.2 ____ +0.42 hudsonvalley21 ________________+2.0 _ +1.7 _ +2.1 ___ +2.2 _ +2.4 _ +2.3 ___ +1.6 _ +1.7 _ --1.0 ____ +0.40 BKViking ______________________ +1.9 _ +1.4 _ +1.0 ___ +2.5 _ +1.1 _ +2.0 ___ +1.1 _ +1.1 _ --2.0 ____ --0.14 ___ Consensus ________________ +1.9 _ +1.5 _ +1.3 ___ +2.2 _ +1.2 _ +2.0 ___ +1.1 _ +1.2 _ --1.0 DonSutherland 1 ______________ +1.5 _ +1.4 _ +1.2 ___ +3.0 _ +2.5 _ +3.1 ___ +2.2 _ +0.3 _ --2.1 ____ +0.19 wxallannj ______________________+1.4 _ +1.5 _ +1.3 ___ +2.9 _ +1.2 _ +1.3 ___ +2.2 _ +1.2 _ --1.8 ____ --0.02 Scotty Lightning _______________+1.0 _ +1.0 _ +0.5 ___ +0.5 _ +1.0 _ +2.0 ___ +1.0 _ +1.5 __ 0.0 ____ --0.32 ___ Normal _____________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 _____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ --1.27 RodneyS ______________________--0.1 _ --0.2 _ --0.1 ___ +0.8 __ 0.0 _ +0.2 ___ +0.9 _ +0.6 _ --0.5 ____ --1.09 Roger Smith __________________ --1.2 _ --1.4 _ --1.8 ___ --1.5 _ --0.5 _ --0.5 ___ +1.0 _ +1.2 _ --1.2 ____ --1.92 =========================================================== Color codes show warmest and coldest forecasts. Normal is coldest for PHX. Bias shows your forecast tendencies averaged out relative to group consensus. Most are expecting slightly warmer than average (which is probably where the 1991-2020 normals will come in).

<<<<<< ================ - - - - Annual Scoring for 2021 (Jan-Feb) - - - - ==================== >>>>>>>> FHigh scores for nine locations shown in red, high scores for regions in bold. FORECASTER _________________DCA_NYC_BOS__east_ ORD_ATL_IAH__cent_ c/e ___ DEN_PHX_SEA__west___TOTALS RodneyS ______________________ 160 _170 _170 __500 __ 69 _148 _ 52 __269 __ 769 __112 _184 _164 __460 ____ 1229 DonSutherland1 _______________142 _128 _114 __384 __105 _152 _ 96 __353 __ 737 __114 _166 _146 __426 ____ 1163 BKViking ______________________ 132 _150 _164 __446 __ 20 _152 _ 72 __244 __ 690 __ 68 _178 _158 __404 ____ 1094 ___ Consensus ________________ 158 _154 _154 __466 __ 38 _128 _ 66 __232 __ 698 __ 78 _182 _130 __390 ____ 1088 wxdude64 _____________________ 142 _134 _156 __432 __ 61 _102 _ 66 __229 __ 661 __ 86 _194 _134 __ 414 ____ 1075 hudsonvalley21 ________________ 146 _126 _142 __414 __ 51 _130 _ 82 __263 __ 677 __ 60 _170 _140 __370 ____ 1047 Tom ___________________________ 160 _168 _174 __502 __ 25 _ 90 _ 64 __ 179 __ 681 __ 62 _192 _ 98 __ 352 ____ 1033 Scotty Lightning _______________ 134 _134 _132 __400 __ 06 _152 _ 88 __246 __ 646 __ 88 _172 _114 __ 374 ____ 1020 wxallannj ______________________ 140 _154 _142 __436 __ 38 _120 _ 48 __206 __ 642 __ 66 _170 _128 __364 ____ 1006 Roger Smith ___________________ 122 _108 _ 84 __314 __111 _ 98 _158 __367 __ 681 __ 74 _ 104 _100 __278 _____ 959 ___ Normal _____________________124 _134 _142 __400 __ 00 _112 _ 64 __176 __ 576 __ 78 _172 _124 __374 _____ 950 so_whats_happening ___________144 _112 _100 __356 __ 56 _158 _ 42 __256 __ 612 __ 54 _190 _ 72 __316 _____ 928 RJay __________________________ 134 _112 _ 82 __ 328 __ 56 _112 _ 64 __232 __ 560 __ 84 _142 _ 78 __ 304 _____ 864 ____________________________________________________________________________ Best scores for the locations and regions FORECASTER _______________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ east __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ cent __ c/e ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA __ west ___ Totals RodneyS _____________________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 1 _____ 1 __ Feb DonSutherland1 ______________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 1 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 _____ 0 _____ 1 __ Jan BKViking _____________________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 _____ 1 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 __ ___ Consensus _______________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 __ wxdude64 ____________________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 1 _____ 0 __ hudsonvalley21 _______________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 _____ 0 _____ 0 __ Tom __________________________ 1 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 1 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 __ Scotty Lightning ______________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 __ wxallannj _____________________ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 __ Roger Smith __________________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 1 ____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 __ ___ Normal ___________________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 __ so_whats_happening _________ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 __ RJay _________________________0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 __ ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- EXTREME FORECAST STANDINGS High score must go to either the extreme warm or cold forecast, or second most extreme, for a station to qualify. So far this year, nine locations out of 18 have qualified, 4 in Jan and 5 in Feb. Of those, five were awarded to warmest forecasts, four to coldest. A loss in the standings represents a case where second most extreme forecast had the high score and the win for that month. FORECASTER _________ Jan __ Feb ______ TOTAL to date Roger Smith ___________ 2-1 __ 2-0 _______ 4-1 DonSutherland1 _______ 2-0 __ 1-0 _______ 3-0 wxdude64 _____________ ---- __ 1-0 _______ 1-0 so_whats_happening ___---- __ 1-0 _______ 1-0 __________________________________________

--1.2 _ --1.4 _ --1.8 _ --1.5 _ --0.5 _ --0.5 _ +1.0 _ +1.2 _ --1.2

Predict the temperature anomalies relative to 30-year average still in use (1981-2010 until notified otherwise) ... DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

Final scoring for February 2021 Scores are based on final anomalies as listed two posts back in the thread. Scores with ^ symbols are based on the max 60 rule, any raw scores that would be higher are left standing. With eleven forecasts, the scoring progression for boosted scores is 60, 54, 48, 42, 36, 30, 24, 18, 12, 06, 00. DEN needs minimum progression, the highest raw score at present is only 11. (outcome -7.1, lowest fcst -1.1). Scores for IAH would also go to this progression if max raw score was under 60. That would require an anomaly of -5.1 or colder. With warmer weather setting in (20th) this is still going to be difficult (-9.6 after 21 days, est -9.0 after 22). However, at the end, very warm weather has reduced the anomaly to -4.7 which produces a max score of 66 and eliminates the scoring boost (sorry, I was the culprit there). ORD has performed a similar reduction of the previously huge negative anomaly to -7.5, and once again you're stuck with raw scores because of my wild guess of -6.0. Despite those two point-bagging episodes, my other cold forecasts scored low and I'm at the bottom of the table anyway. For the minimum progression adjustments, consensus will be the same as one of these and Normal is scored from its relative position. FORECASTER _____________DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent _ c/e __ DEN_PHX_SEA__west ___ TOTAL RodneyS ___________________ 84 _ 84 _ 84 ___ 252 __ 19 _ 86 _ 00 __ 105 __ 357 __ 48^_ 96 _ 68 __ 212 _____ 569 Tom _______________________ 94 _ 94 _ 98 ___286 __ 25 _ 52 _ 00 __ 077 __ 363 __ 30^_ 98 _ 36 __ 164 _____ 527 wxdude64 __________________62 _ 60 _ 80 ___ 202 __ 39 _ 48 _ 00 __ 087 __ 289 __ 60^_100 _76 __236 _____ 525 ____ Normal ________________ 76 _ 78 _ 82 ___ 236 __ 00 _ 70 _ 06 __ 076 __ 312 __ 42^_ 74 _ 60 __ 176 _____ 488 DonSutherland1 ____________ 72 _ 72 _ 66 ___ 210 __ 09 _ 60 _ 02 __ 071 __ 281 __ 42^_ 82 _ 80 __ 204 _____ 485 Scotty Lightning ____________56 _ 58 _ 62 ___ 176 __ 00 _ 90 _ 00 __ 090 __ 266 __ 42^_ 94 _ 50 __ 186 _____ 452 ____ Consensus ____________ 70 _ 58 _ 66 ___ 194 __ 10 _ 66 _ 00 __ 076 __ 270 __ 30^_ 98 _ 50 __ 178 _____ 448 BKViking ___________________42 _ 54 _ 66 ___ 162 __ 00 _ 86 _ 00 __ 086 __ 248 __ 24^_ 94 _ 70 __ 188 _____ 436 hudsonvalley21 ____________ 70 _ 56 _ 80 ___ 206 __ 03 _ 66 _ 10 __ 079 __ 285 __ 12^_ 92 _ 42 __ 146 _____ 431 so_whats_happening _______44 _ 54 _ 62 ___ 160 __ 10 _ 98 _ 00 __ 108 __ 268 __ 06^_ 98 _ 24 __ 128 _____ 396 wxallannj __________________ 52 _ 54 _ 54 ___ 160 __ 10 _ 44 _ 00 __ 054 __ 214 __ 54^_ 72 _ 48 __ 174 _____ 388 RJay _______________________36 _ 38 _ 32 ___ 106 __ 00 _ 70 _ 06 __ 076 __ 182 __ 18^_ 94 _ 50 __ 162 _____ 344 Roger Smith ________________34 _ 28 _ 14 ___ 076 __ 85 _ 00 _ 66 __ 151 __ 227 __ 00 _ 76 _ 14 __ 090 _____ 317 _____________________________________________________________ ======================================================== EXTREME FORECAST REPORT Four locations are wins for coldest forecasts -- ORD and IAH (Roger Smith), DEN (wxdude64) and SEA (DonSutherland1). ATL is a win for highest forecast (so_whats_happening). ========================================================= IAH has been adjusted and annual scoring (Jan-Feb) will follow later today. Worth noting that 7 of 9 locations averaged below normal in February, the average departure of all nine was --2.3 F.

Tips for shovelling a sleet drift ... 1. Don't.

DT looks fairly solid to me, would loop that 1" line around western Lake Ontario and put a 3" lolly in there, get some clients in Hamilton, football capital of Canada. A town near there has had 3 feet of snow in the last week mostly from lake effect in east winds.

I hope it's sleet and not freezing rain, that can do a lot more damage to trees and power lines. There's a ton of moisture streaming into the frontal system near the MS-AL border in the same packet that will be over Virginia in 24 hours. You don't have as much wind-turbine component in your energy grid as Texas, I hope.

Agree with the 3 to 6 inch calls (I-95) with best snow axis MRB to 50s ABE ... slight uncertainty remains about part two which depends on any development of low pressure currently in the central GOM south of Houma LA at about 27.5 N, oil rig obs indicate a juicy warm sector has developed (75/73 south wind to 30 mph) and this is supposedly heading for landfall near Pensacola or Mobile Bay then tracking through southern GA and up the Carolina coast. However, almost all guidance does nothing more than drag along an ill-defined trailing wave to the first low that forms in resonance with the inland snowfall energy, and eventually most models just ripple all the energy forward into that leading wave for explosive development south of NS Canada by Friday (late). If that were to prove inaccurate and this Gulf low maintains a stronger and more intact center and develops a circulation, then it could increase your snow and decrease the otherwise apparently inevitable sleet producing longer duration portion of the event. Let's say later models show a 1004 mb center deepening to 996 mb (which is probably only now on a few perturbations in the ensemble) then it would distort the thermals enough to keep the column colder and might turn into a heavier snowfall. That's the only route I see to anything heavier than about 6" and my forecast range is 3-6" for the three airports, 6-8" Frederick and 8-12" max in the MRB to MDT zone. A different evolution of the Gulf low could add several more inches to that but as I say no guidance supports this, although it has to be said that the weak feature now on the map is managing to produce quite a good circulation at the moment in the central to western GOM. Probably what would be needed is more digging of the upper trough to energize this low further, it has all the thermal gradients a low could possibly use.

Here are the forecasts for the snowfall contest (last updated Feb 28 in the previous post) ... Winter Snowfall contest 2020-2021 -- Table of entries FORECASTER ______ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ DTW _ BUF ___ DEN _ SEA _ BTV ___ current total dep snowfall to Feb 28___5.4 __ 38.6 _ 38.4 ___47.0 _ 41.3 _ 71.5 __ 33.6 _ 12.9 _ 58.2 wxallannj __________ 21.0 _ 29.0 _ 37.0 __ 43.0 _ 47.0 _ 70.0 __ 51.0 __ 5.2 _ 77.0 _____ 81.7 (24.2) Tom _______________ 18.1 _ 29.8 _ 42.5 __ 43.3 _ 44.1 _102.5__ 59.6 __ 4.2 _ 78.3 ____117.9 (21.2) hudsonvalley21 ____ 16.3 _ 30.4 _ 44.5 __ 39.7 _ 48.2 _ 87.9 __ 61.1 __ 6.8 _ 83.2 ____114.4 (21.6) Scotty Lightning ____15.0 _ 25.0 _ 40.0 __ 50.0 _ 40.0 _125.0__ 75.0 __ 3.0 _ 90.0 ____ 165.7 (24.8) Roger Smith _______ 14.5 _ 28.2 _ 60.5 __ 35.5 _ 39.9 _ 80.5 __ 55.5 _ 12.5 _ 90.5 ____ 118.1 (23.7) wxdude64 _________ 13.2 _ 29.7 _ 45.9 __ 41.7 _ 44.2 _ 97.7 __ 73.2 __ 7.1 _ 84.1 ____ 125.3 (20.0) RJay ________________8.0 _ 20.0 _ 35.0 __ 40.0 _ 40.0 _ 75.0 __ 65.0 __ 4.0 _ 65.0 _____ 83.5 (39.2) Don Sutherland1 ____ 6.0 _ 11.5 _ 28.0 __ 38.5 _ 44.0 _ 87.0 __ 57.5 __ 3.4 _ 72.9 _____112.9 (55.5) RodneyS ____________ 4.4 __ 8.5 _ 20.0 __ 31.6 _ 38.0 _ 78.9 __ 55.5 __ 5.1 _ 66.6 _____113.7 (76.0) __ consensus _______14.5 _ 28.2 _ 40.0 __ 40.0 _ 44.1 _ 87.0 __ 59.6 __ 5.1 _ 78.3 ______100.3 (25.2) snowfall to Feb 28 ___5.4 __ 38.6 _ 38.4 ___47.0 _ 41.3 _ 71.5 __ 33.6 _ 12.9 _ 58.2 _________________________________________________________________________ Current best forecasts are in red. Underlined means settled as there was no higher forecast. In the "total current departure" the first number is subject to reductions as your higher forecasts converge on the eventual totals but a few forecasts (including all at SEA and NYC) are already below the outcome and so the number in brackets is your total non-reducible error (the portion of total departure that can only grow larger). Hard to say who has the advantage at this point, the larger departures will catch up at 2x new snowfalls (in some cases, if you're above the seasonal total and fellow competitor is below) until new snowfalls increase beyond predictions.

Unless this thing explodes you will be near the top, with seven weeks to go until it gets too warm for snow ... seven agonizing, slowly unfolding weeks of dribs and drabs of snow that will move mappy and stormpc inexorably closer to victory.