Roger Smith

The seasonal count has reached 8/3/1 with Grace briefly a major before (final) landfall and Henri now a minimal 'cane. (note Aug 27, Ida has reached hurricane status and most forecasts assume it will become a major, which would make the count 9/4/2 at that point. The table is edited as of today to reflect that status). (note Aug 29, Julian has come and gone as a tropical storm, table now edited again to reflect that, with the count 10/4/2). (note Aug 30, Kate has formed and seems unlikely to become a hurricane, so I have redone the table yet again for 11/4/2). (note Sep 2, Larry is already a hurricane and guidance seems bullish on its chances to become a major so with the count now 12/5/2 I have rejigged the table below for 12/5/3 (if Larry fails to become a major this will be adjusted later). (note Sep 8, Mindy has arrived in the Gulf of Mexico, expected to remain only a tropical storm ... count once again adjusted). (note Sep 12, Nicholas active in the Gulf, waiting to see if this one becomes a hurricane before editing the table). (note Sep 14, Nicholas did attain hurricane status near landfall, table now updated to reflect new count of 14/6/3). The seasonal predictions you made now require these future outcomes to verify: Required future tropical counts for seasonal predictions to verify _ This table will be updated as new data change the seasonal count _ _ Aug 27 table changed to reflect likely 9/4/2 count within 1-2 days. _ Aug 29 and 30 changes to 11/4/2. _ Sep 2 change to 12/5/3 _ Sep 8 change to 13/5/3 _ Sep 14 count is 14/6/3 FORECASTER _________________ named __ 'canes __ Major _____ additional named, H and M required Macintosh ______________________ 25 __ 14 __ 10 __________ 11 ___ 8 __ 7 Tezeta __________________________ 23 __ 14 ___ 7 ___________ 9 ___ 8 __ 4 Roger Smith _____________________23 __ 13 ___ 7 ___________ 9 ___ 9 __ 4 Southmdwatcher ________________22 __ 11 ___ 6 ___________ 8 ___ 5 __ 3 IntenseWind002 ________________ 22 ___ 9 ___ 4 ___________ 8 ___ 3 __ 1 hudsonvalley21 __________________21 __ 11 ___ 6 ____________7 ___ 5 __ 3 Newman ________________________ 21 __ 10 ___ 5 ___________ 7 ___ 4 __ 2 J_Keith_Lee _____________________ 21 ___ 9 ___ 4 ___________ 7 ___ 3 __ 1 Brian5671 _______________________ 20 __ 12 ___ 2 ___________ 6 ___ 6 __(-1) (6 6 0 best outcome) RJay ____________________________ 20 __ 10 ___ 5 ___________ 6 ___ 4 __ 0 WxWatcher007 __________________20 ___ 9 ___ 4 ___________ 6 ___ 3 __ 1 BKViking ________________________ 20 ___ 9 ___ 4 ___________ 6 ___ 3 __ 1 ___ consensus __________________19.2 _ 9.8 __ 4.7 __________ 5.2_3.8 _1.7 DonSutherland1 _________________ 19 __ 12 ___ 6 ____________ 5 ___ 6 __ 3 (6 6 3 best outcome) Ldub _____________________________ 19 __ 11 ___ 5 _____________5 ___ 5 __ 2 magpiemaniac ___________________ 19 __ 10 ___ 4 ____________ 5 ___ 4 __ 1 NCforecaster89 _________________ 19 ___ 9 ___ 4 _____________5 ___ 3 __ 1 Tom _____________________________ 19 ___ 9 ___ 3 _____________ 5 ___ 3 __ 0 Looking to the skies _____________ 19 ___ 8 ___ 7 _____________ 5 ___ 2 __ 4 (533 best possible) wxdude64 _______________________ 19 ___ 7 ___ 4 _____________ 5 ___ 1 __ 1 TexMexWx _______________________ 18 ___ 9 ___ 4 _____________ 4 ___ 3 __ 1 Cat Lady _________________________ 18 ___ 9 ___ 3 _____________ 4 ___ 3 __ 0 snowlover2 ______________________ 18 ___ 8 ___ 4 _____________ 4 ___ 2 __ 1 Iceresistance ____________________ 18 ___ 7 ___ 3 ______________ 4 ___ 1 __ 0 Rhino16 __________________________ 17 __ 10 ___ 4 _____________ 3 ___ 4 __ 1 (441 best possible) cptcatz ___________________________17 ___ 9 ___ 4 _____________ 3 ___ 3 __ 1 NorthHillsWx ____________________ 17 ___ 9 ___ 3 ______________ 3 ___ 3 __ 0 ____ "Expert consensus" _________ 17 ___ 8 ___ 4 _____________ 3 ___ 2 __ 1 TARCweather ____________________ 17 ___ 8 ___ 3 _____________ 3 ___ 2 __ 0 ____ NOAA median _____________ 16.5 ___ 8 ___ 4 ____________ 2.5 __ 2 __ 1 Yoda _____________________________ 16 ___ 9 ___ 5 _____________ 2 ___ 3 __ 2 (best outcome 3 3 2) LoboLeader1 _____________________ 15 ___ 9 ___ 4 _____________ 1 ___ 3 __ 1 (3 3 1 best outcome) Prospero _________________________ 14 __ 11 ___ 7 ______________0 ___ 5 __ 4 (best possible 4 4 4) ____________________________________________________________________ As of Kate (Aug 30) now three forecasts are impossible to verify but those three can still win the contest by hitting their best possibles. With Larry now a major, a fourth forecast would fall into this category. And with Mindy's arrival three more have drifted into the Cannot Fully Verify Narrows. Most can still win the contest though if they hit their best possibles. Nicholas did not add any new members to the "cannot fully verify" category but drew even with our lowest prediction of number of storms. We are still one short of the lowest number of hurricanes predicted, and had already seen one forecast passed by the number of majors with three others now level at 5. (Aug 22) If we assumed that one third of the season has occurred and two equal thirds lie ahead, the outcome would be 24 9 3 If we assumed that 40% of the season has now occurred but that the remaining 60 per cent would be twice as productive of hurricanes and majors, the outcome would then be 20 9 3 The mean of these two assumptions is 22 9 3. (Aug 27) If we now assume 45% of season has occurred and remaining 55 per cent would be 1.8 times as productive of hurricanes and majors, the new target is then 20 9 4.5 (Sep 2) If Larry became a major and the count was 12 5 3 and we assumed this was the halfway point of the season with an equal second half, the outcome would be 24 10 6. Only one forecast goes higher on named storms, several have higher H and M components. (Sep 8) The forecast models are not too bullish on additional tropical developments in this peak portion of the season so a more subjective outlook now might be around 21 11 5. Just my speculation though.

Have been following this with interest, my hunch is that it will come in further west than many expect, over western Long Island. Intensity at that point might be marginal cat-1 TS boundary.

CONTINUED REPORT ON WEEKLY EXTREMES for WEEKS ENDING IN JULY Intervals _______________ Highest values 1869-2021 __ Lowest values 1869-2021 WEEKLY INTERVAL ______ WARMEST AVERAGE ____ COLDEST AVERAGE ____ notes June 25 - July 1 __________ (max) 92.57 _ 1901 _____ (max) 71.14 _ 1974 June 25 - July 1 __________ (min) 73.57 _ 1880,1909 __ (min) 57.14 _ 1893 June 25 - July 1 _________ (mean) 82.29_ 1901 _____(mean) 64.86_ 1893 _ the wettest week ending July 1 was 1884 (4.75") June 26 - July 2 __________ (max) 95.00 _ 1901 _____ (max) 71.86 _ 1985 June 26 - July 2 __________ (min) 73.86 _ 1901 _____ (min) 57.71 _ 1893 June 26 - July 2 __________ (mean) 84.43_ 1901 ___ (mean) 65.57 _ 1985 _ the wettest week ending July 2 was 1884 (4.30") June 27 - July 3 __________ (max) 95.71 _ 1966 _____ (max) 73.71 _ 1888,1985 ____ (1901 avg 95.43) June 27 - July 3 __________ (min) 74.57 _ 1876 _____ (min) 57.29 _ 1888 June 27 - July 3 __________ (mean) 84.93_1901 ___ (mean) 65.50 _ 1888 _ the wettest week ending July 3 was 1984 (4.22") June 28 - July 4 __________ (max) 95.29 _ 1966 _____ (max) 74.57 _ 1914 _____ (1901 avg 94.43) June 28 - July 4 __________ (min) 75.43 _ 1876 _____ (min) 57.00 _ 1888 June 28 - July 4 __________ (mean) 84.79_1966 ___ (mean) 66.00 _ 1888 _ the wettest week ending July 4 was 1984 (4.23") June 29 - July 5 __________ (max) 94.57 _ 1966 _____ (max) 72.57 _ 1882 June 29 - July 5 __________ (min) 75.71 _ 2018 ______ (min) 58.71 _ 1888 June 29 - July 5 __________ (mean) 84.07_1966 ___ (mean) 66.64 _ 1882 _ the wettest week ending July 5 was 1984 (4.44") June 30 - July 6 __________ (max) 94.43 _ 1966 _____ (max) 72.43 _ 1882 June 30 - July 6 __________ (min) 76.57 _ 1908 ______ (min) 58.29 _ 1940 June 30 - July 6 __________ (mean) 83.86_1966 ____ (mean) 66.21 _ 1882 _ the wettest week ending July 6 was 1901 (4.67") (1984 4.45") July 1 - July 7 ____________ (max) 94.29 _ 1966 _____ (max) 73.71 _ 1882 ____ (94.00 _ 1911) July 1 - July 7 ____________ (min) 77.71 _ 1908 ______ (min) 58.86 _ 1940 ____ (77.29 1999) July 1 - July 7 ___________ (mean) 84.43_1911 ____ (mean) 66.71 _ 1914 _ the wettest week ending July 7 was 1901 (4.68") (1984 4.51") July 2 - July 8 ____________ (max) 94.86 _ 1966 _____ (max) 73.57 _ 1882 July 2 - July 8 ____________ (min) 77.43 _ 1999 ______ (min) 59.29 _ 1979 ___ 77.29 (1908) July 2 - July 8 ___________ (mean) 85.21 _ 1999 ____ (mean) 67.07 _ 1882 _ the wettest week ending July 8 was 1901 (4.69") July 3 - July 9 ____________ (max) 95.14 _ 2010 _____ (max) 74.29 _ 1914 July 3 - July 9 ____________ (min) 77.43 _ 1999 ______ (min) 59.86 _ 1979 July 3 - July 9 ___________ (mean) 85.21 _ 2010 ____ (mean) 67.86 _ 1914 _ the wettest week ending July 9 was 1901 (4.70") _ record broken 2021 5.22" July 4 - July 10 ___________ (max) 96.29 _ 1993 _____ (max) 74.86 _ 1956 July 4 - July 10 ___________ (min) 76.86 _ 1999 ______ (min) 59.71 _ 1979 July 4 - July 10 __________ (mean) 85.71 _ 1993 ____ (mean) 68.14 _ 1894 _ the wettest week ending July 10 was 1901 (4.39") _ record broken 2021 5.15" July 5 - July 11 ___________ (max) 96.57 _ 1993 _____ (max) 74.86 _ 1894 July 5 - July 11 ___________ (min) 76.14 _ 2010* ______ (min) 60.00 _ 1894 *_75.86 2024, 75.71_2013 July 5 - July 11 __________ (mean) 85.79 _ 1993 ____ (mean) 67.43 _ 1894 _ the wettest week ending July 11 was 1901 (5.05") _ record broken 2021 5.16" July 6 - July 12 ___________ (max) 97.00 _ 1993 _____ (max) 74.86 _ 1914 July 6 - July 12 ___________ (min) 76.00 _ 1993*______ (min) 60.57 _ 1894 *_75.71 1981, 2010, 75.57 1905, 2024 July 6 - July 12 __________ (mean) 86.50 _ 1993 ____ (mean) 68.21 _ 1917 _ the wettest week ending July 12 was 1928 (4.03") (2020 3.90") _ _ _ _ record broken 2021 6.58" July 7 - July 13 ___________ (max) 98.00 _ 1993 _____ (max) 73.43 _ 1917 July 7 - July 13 ___________ (min) 76.86*_ 1993 ______ (min) 61.00 _ 1963 _*76.43 _ 1905 July 7 - July 13 __________ (mean) 87.43*_1993 ____ (mean) 68.21 _ 1917 _ * highest mean, 2nd was 15th-21st 1977 (87.36) _ the wettest week ending July 13 was 1874 (3.75") _ record broken 2021 6.58" __ note: Heavy rainfalls in the past week have broken a number of the existing weekly totals as noted in the tables. ___ The 6.58" peak amount for weeks ending July 12 and 13 represents the second highest July weekly total, only 25-31 of 1889 surpassed this with 6.75". Looking back, the last week (in the calendar year) to exceed 6.58" was June 7-13 (2013, record 7.37") and as it turns out that is also the most recent weekly total higher than these recent peaks (added later, two higher peaks were set in late August and early September of 2021). ___ July 8 - July 14 ___________ (max) 97.00 _ 1993 _____ (max) 74.00 _ 1917 __ 94.86 (1936) 106F 9th July 8 - July 14 ___________ (min) 77.14 _ 1905 ______ (min) 60.00 _ 1888 July 8 - July 14 __________ (mean) 86.64 _ 1993 ____ (mean) 68.36 _ 1917 _ the wettest week ending July 14 was 1874 (3.75") _ record broken 2021 6.03" July 9 - July 15 ___________ (max) 95.57 _ 1993 _____ (max) 74.57 _ 1917 July 9 - July 15 ___________ (min) 76.57 _ 1905 ______ (min) 59.43 _ 1888 July 9 - July 15 __________ (mean) 85.29 _ 1993 ____ (mean) 68.21 _ 1888 _ the wettest week ending July 15 was 1975 (4.62") _ 2021 3.76" as no rain July 14-15 July 10 - July 16 ___________ (max) 94.00 _ 1993 _____ (max) 75.71 _ 1895 July 10 - July 16 ___________ (min) 75.00 _ 1876 ______ (min) 59.00 _ 1888 July 10 - July 16 __________ (mean) 83.57 _ 1993 ____ (mean) 68.71 _ 1895 _ the wettest week ending July 16 was 1937 (4.52") _ July 11 - July 17 ___________ (max) 93.29 _ 1983 _____ (max) 76.71 _ 1884 July 11 - July 17 ___________ (min) 75.43 _ 1876 ______ (min) 58.86 _ 1888 July 11 - July 17 __________ (mean) 82.93 _ 1983 ____ (mean) 68.79 _ 1888 _ the wettest week ending July 17 was 1937 (4.52") _ note 2024 3.81" July 12 - July 18 ___________ (max) 95.00 _ 1983 _____ (max) 76.43 _ 1884 July 12 - July 18 ___________ (min) 75.43 _ 1876 ______ (min) 58.43 _ 1888 July 12 - July 18 __________ (mean) 84.93 _ 1983 ____ (mean) 67.93 _ 1888 _ the wettest week ending July 18 was 1895 (4.41") July 13 - July 19 ___________ (max) 96.86 _ 1977 _____ (max) 74.86 _ 1903 July 13 - July 19 ___________ (min) 77.00 _ 2013 ______ (min) 59.43 _ 1888 July 13 - July 19 __________ (mean) 86.07 _ 1977 ____ (mean) 68.14 _ 1888 _ the wettest week ending July 19 was 1975 (3.97") _ note 2024 was 3.64" July 14 - July 20 ___________ (max) 96.71 _ 1977 _____ (max) 75.29 _ 1884 July 14 - July 20 ___________ (min) 79.00 _ 2013 ______ (min) 60.86 _ 1924 July 14 - July 20 __________ (mean) 86.79 _ 2013 ____ (mean) 69.14 _ 1903 _ the wettest week ending July 20 was 1919 (4.07") July 15 - July 21 ___________ (max) 98.43*_ 1977 _____ (max) 75.71 _ 1884 __ * highest weekly average all time (2nd in late Aug-early Sep 1953) July 15 - July 21 ___________ (min) 79.29^_ 2013 ______ (min) 61.00 _ 1924 __ ^ highest weekly average all time (2nd Aug 6-12 1896, 79.14) July 15 - July 21 __________ (mean) 87.36 _ 1977 ____ (mean) 69.43 _ 1884 __ mean is 2nd highest, 87.43 7-13 1993 highest _ the wettest week ending July 21 was 1988 (5.70") July 16 - July 22 ___________ (max) 97.29 _ 1977 _____ (max) 76.57 _ 1871, 1919 July 16 - July 22 ___________ (min) 78.86 _ 2013 ______ (min) 61.29 _ 1929 July 16 - July 22 __________ (mean) 86.50 _ 1977 ____ (mean) 69.57 _ 1871 _ the wettest week ending July 22 was 1988 (5.60") July 17 - July 23 ___________ (max) 97.29 _ 1991*_____ (max) 75.29 _ 1869 __ * 2011 95.71 July 17 - July 23 ___________ (min) 78.29 _ 2013 ______ (min) 60.14 _ 1890 July 17 - July 23 __________ (mean) 86.36 _ 2011 ____ (mean) 68.36 _ 1890 _ the wettest week ending July 23 was 1988 (5.45") _ 1919 was close at 5.37" July 18 - July 24 ___________ (max) 96.43 _ 1991*_____ (max) 74.57 _ 1890 __ * 2011 95.71 July 18 - July 24 ___________ (min) 77.86 _ 2011 ______ (min) 59.43 _ 1890 __ 2022 75.86 July 18 - July 24 __________ (mean) 86.79 _ 2011 ____ (mean) 67.00 _ 1890 _ the wettest week ending July 24 was 1997 (5.53") _ 1919 had 5.36" July 19 - July 25 ___________ (max) 93.57 _ 2011*_____ (max) 74.14 _ 1871 __ * 1991 93.29, 2022 92.43 July 19 - July 25 ___________ (min) 76.86 _ 2011 ______ (min) 60.14 _ 1890 __ 2022 75.86 July 19 - July 25 __________ (mean) 85.21 _ 2011 ____ (mean) 67.36 _ 1871, 1890 _ the wettest week ending July 25 was 1997 (5.97") July 20 - July 26 ___________ (max) 93.14 _ 1980*_____ (max) 74.00 _ 1969 __ * 2011 93.00 July 20 - July 26 ___________ (min) 76.43 _ 1885 ______ (min) 59.86 _ 1871 July 20 - July 26 __________ (mean) 84.50 _ 2011 ____ (mean) 67.29 _ 1871 _ the wettest week ending July 26 was 1997 (5.97") July 21 - July 27 ___________ (max) 93.86 _ 1955 _____ (max) 75.43 _ 2000 July 21 - July 27 ___________ (min) 75.71 _ 1885 ______ (min) 60.71 _ 1871 July 21 - July 27 _________ (mean) 83.79_1955, 1961*__(mean) 68.21_1871 _ * 83.64 2011 _ the wettest week ending July 27 was 1997 (6.06") July 22 - July 28 ___________ (max) 93.57 _ 1999 _____ (max) 74.71 _ 2000* July 22 - July 28 ___________ (min) 75.57 _ 1908 ______ (min) 61.43 _ 1871_1920 July 22 - July 28 __________ (mean) 84.00 _ 1999^____ (mean) 69.14 _ 1871 _ the wettest week ending July 28 was 1997 (5.20") July 23 - July 29 ___________ (max) 95.00 _ 1999 _____ (max) 73.71 _ 2000 July 23 - July 29 ___________ (min) 75.86 _ 1908 ______ (min) 60.71 _ 1920 July 23 - July 29 __________ (mean) 84.79 _ 1999 ____ (mean) 69.21 _ 2000 _ the wettest week ending July 29 was 1997 (4.71") July 24 - July 30 ___________ (max) 95.00 _ 1999 _____ (max) 73.14 _ 2000 July 24 - July 30 ___________ (min) 76.00 _ 1995 ______ (min) 60.29 _ 1920 July 24 - July 30 __________ (mean) 84.86 _ 1999____ (mean) 69.21 _ 2000 _ the wettest week ending July 30 was 1960 (5.06") July 25 - July 31 ___________ (max) 94.00*_ 1999 _____ (max) 72.71 _ 2000 __ * 1940 93.71 July 25 - July 31 ___________ (min) 76.29 _ 1995 ______ (min) 60.43 _ 1920 July 25 - July 31 __________ (mean) 84.07 _ 1999 ____ (mean) 68.93 _ 2000 _ the wettest week ending July 31 was 1889 (6.75")

Updated seasonal max and contest standings _________________________________DCA_ IAD_ BWI_ RIC Updated highs as of Aug 13th __ 97 _100 _ 99 _ 96 Current leaderboard FORECASTER _________________ DCA _IAD _BWI _ RIC _______ Total error (neg) tplbge (19) _____________________ 98 _ 100 __ 99 _ 100 __________________________________ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 4 ____________ 5 biodhokie (17) __________________ 97 _ 100 __ 99 _ 102 ___________________________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 6 ___________ 6 mattie g (4) _____________________98 _ 100 __ 98 _ 101 __________________________________ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 5 _____________ 7 (1) GATech (23) ____________________ 98 __ 98 __ 98 __ 99 ___________________________________ 1 ___ 2 ___ 1 ___ 3 ____________ 7 (3) nw baltimore wx (8) _____________98 __ 97 __ 98 __ 99 ___________________________________ 1 ___ 3 ___ 1 ___ 3 ____________ 8 (4) A777 (21) ______________________ 100 _ 100 _ 100 _ 100 __________________________________ 3 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 4 _____________ 8 MNTransplant (19) _____________ 99 __ 99 _ 101 _ 101 __________________________________ 2 ___ 1 ___ 2 ___ 5 _____________ 10 (1) Roger Ramjet (22) ______________ 99 _ 100 _ 101 _ 102 ___________________________________2 ___ 0 ___ 2 ___ 6 ____________ 10 Wxdavis5784 (11) ______________ 99 _ 100 _ 103 _ 101 __________________________________ 2 ___ 0 ___ 4 ___ 5 ____________ 11 WxWatcher007 (20) ____________ 99 __ 97 _ 100 _ 101 __________________________________ 2 ___ 3 ___ 1 ___ 5 _____________ 11 (3) GramaxRefugee (12) ___________ 101 _ 102 _ 102 _ 100 ___________________________________4 ___ 2 ___ 3 ___ 4 ___________ 13 storm pc (9) ___________________ 101 __ 99 _ 103 _ 101 __________________________________ 4 ___ 1 ___ 4 ___ 5 ____________ 14 (1) ___ Consensus (mean of 26) ____101 _ 101 _ 102 _ 102 ___________________________________ 4 ___ 1 ___ 3 ___ 6 ___________ 14 CAPE (1) _______________________ 102 _ 100 _ 103 _ 103 __________________________________ 5 ___ 0 ___ 4 ___ 7 ___________ 16 WxUSAF (7) ____________________102 _ 100 _ 103 _ 103 __________________________________ 5 ___ 0 ___ 4 ___ 7 ___________ 16 NorthArlington101 (14) ________ 101 _ 100 _ 103 _ 104 __________________________________ 4 ___ 0 ___ 4 ___ 8 ____________ 16 yoda (15) ______________________ 102 _ 100 _ 102 _ 104 _________________________________ 5 ___ 0 ___ 3 ___ 8 ____________ 16 toolsheds (16) _________________ 104 _ 100 _ 104 _ 101 __________________________________ 7 ___ 0 ___ 5 ___ 5 ____________ 17 Weather53 (25) _________________102 _ 101 _ 103 _ 103 ___________________________________ 5 ___ 1 ___ 4 ___ 7 ___________ 17 Rhino16 (3) ____________________ 103 _ 101 _ 101 _ 105 __________________________________ 6 ___ 1 ___ 2 ___ 9 ____________ 18 Roger Smith (--) ________________101 _ 102 _ 103 _ 104 __________________________________ 4 ___ 2 ___ 4 ___ 8 ___________ 18 wxdude64 (5) __________________ 103 _ 101 _ 103 _ 104 __________________________________ 6 ___ 1 ___ 4 ___ 8 ___________ 19 Prince Frederick Wx (10) _______ 102 _ 100 _ 105 _ 104 ___________________________________ 5 ___ 0 ___ 6 ___ 8 __________ 19 SnowenOutThere (24) __________101 _ 104 _ 103 _ 103 __________________________________ 4 ___ 4 ___ 4 ___ 7 ___________ 19 MillvilleWx (6) __________________105 _ 102 _ 102 _ 103 __________________________________ 8 ___ 2 ___ 3 ___ 7 ____________ 20 H2O (13) _______________________102 _ 103 _ 104 _ 103 __________________________________ 5 ___ 3 ___ 5 ___ 7 ___________ 20 vastateofmind (11) _____________104 _ 102 _ 104 _ 103 __________________________________ 7 ___ 2 ___ 5 ___ 7 ____________ 21 George BM (2) _________________107 _ 106 _ 107 _ 108 __________________________________10 ___ 6 ___ 8 ___ 12 ___________ 36 ___________________________________________________________________ (Numbers in brackets after forecaster name indicate order of entry). NOTES: Very few of the departures (errors) are negative so far (indicated by italic type), those of course can only increase with future changes in seasonal maxima. So in almost all cases these scores can still improve and all the totals could improve. The number in brackets after a few of the total scores are "total negatives" which represent the portion of the score already locked in. Only some of the better scores have this element. The number in brackets then also represents the lowest total score you can now achieve if your positive departures reduce to zero. Second place biodhokie has three of four stations at zero error currently, while leader tplbge has two on the right value with a total departure of 5. Nobody so far has a lower forecast than the actual values at DCA and RIC (for RIC there is still a field-wide three degree shortfall at 96 F, one (biodhokie) has a zero error now for DCA at 97F and there are several at 98F). Took a quick look at today's weather and it looks like none of the above will change today.

CONTINUED REPORT ON WEEKLY EXTREMES for WEEKS ENDING IN JUNE Intervals _______________ Highest values 1869-2025 __ Lowest values 1869-2025 May 26 - Jun 1 __________ (max) 88.29 _ 1991 ______ (max) 60.86 _ 1907 May 26 - Jun 1 ___________ (min) 69.71 _ 2016 ______ (min) 47.14 _ 1930 May 26 - Jun 1 __________ (mean) 78.50 _ 1991 ____ (mean) 54.43 _ 1907 _ the wettest week ending June 1 was 5.56" (1984) May 27 - Jun 2 __________ (max) 88.86 _ 1991 ______ (max) 60.71 _ 1907 May 27 - Jun 2 ___________ (min) 68.86 _ 1991 ______ (min) 48.29 _ 1907 May 27 - Jun 2 __________ (mean) 78.86 _ 1991 ____ (mean) 54.50 _ 1907 _ the wettest week ending June 2 was 5.65" (1984) May 28 - Jun 3 __________ (max) 90.14 _ 1895 ______ (max) 60.86 _ 1907 May 28 - Jun 3 ___________ (min) 68.71 _ 1991 ______ (min) 48.43 _ 1907 May 28 - Jun 3 __________ (mean) 78.57 _ 1895 ____ (mean) 54.64 _ 1907 _ the wettest week ending June 3 was 5.65" (1984) May 29 - Jun 4 __________ (max) 89.43*_ 1895 ______ (max) 62.86 _ 1907 _* also 88.29_1919 May 29 - Jun 4 ___________ (min) 68.14 _ 1895 ______ (min) 49.86 _ 1945 May 29 - Jun 4 __________ (mean) 78.79 _ 1895 ____ (mean) 56.50 _ 1907 _ the wettest week ending June 4 was 5.12" (2003) May 30 - Jun 5 __________ (max) 89.71 _ 1925 ______ (max) 59.29 _ 1945 May 30 - Jun 5 ___________ (min) 69.14 _ 2010 ______ (min) 49.00 _ 1945 May 30 - Jun 5 __________ (mean) 78.50 _ 1925 ____ (mean) 54.14 _ 1945 _ the wettest week ending June 5 was 5.13" (2003) May 31 - Jun 6 __________ (max) 93.00 _ 1925 ______ (max) 59.43 _ 1945 May 31 - Jun 6 ___________ (min) 70.43 _ 1925 ______ (min) 47.57 _ 1945 May 31 - Jun 6 __________ (mean) 81.71 _ 1925 ____ (mean) 53.50 _ 1945 _ the wettest week ending June 6 was 4.94" (2003) Jun 1 - Jun 7 __________ (max) 95.00 _ 1925 ______ (max) 60.71 _ 1945 Jun 1 - Jun 7 ___________ (min) 71.14 _ 1925 ______ (min) 47.86 _ 1945 Jun 1 - Jun 7 __________ (mean) 83.07 _ 1925 ____ (mean) 54.29 _ 1945 _ the wettest week ending June 7 was 6.01" (2011) Jun 2 - Jun 8 __________ (max) 92.86 _ 1925 ______ (max) 63.43 _ 1945 Jun 2 - Jun 8 ___________ (min) 70.00 _ 1925 ______ (min) 49.57 _ 1945 Jun 2 - Jun 8 __________ (mean) 81.43 _ 1925 ____ (mean) 56.50 _ 1945 _ the wettest week ending June 8 was 6.49" (2011) Jun 3 - Jun 9 __________ (max) 91.14 _ 1925 ______ (max) 65.29 _ 1945 Jun 3 - Jun 9 ___________ (min) 69.29 _ 2021 ______ (min) 50.86 _ 1945 Jun 3 - Jun 9 __________ (mean) 80.07 _ 1925 ____ (mean) 58.07 _ 1945 _ the wettest week ending June 9 was 5.64" (2011) Jun 4 - Jun 10 __________ (max) 90.57 _ 1925 ______ (max) 66.29 _ 1869 Jun 4 - Jun 10 ___________ (min) 71.00 _ 1984 ______ (min) 52.14 _ 1945 Jun 4 - Jun 10 __________ (mean) 80.71 _ 1984 ____ (mean) 59.74 _ 1945 _ the wettest week ending June 10 was 6.15" (2011) Jun 5 - Jun 11 __________ (max) 91.86 _ 1984 ______ (max) 64.86 _ 1916 _ also 65.57 1869 Jun 5 - Jun 11 ___________ (min) 73.86 _ 1984 ______ (min) 52.57 _ 1878 Jun 5 - Jun 11 __________ (mean) 82.86 _ 1984 ____ (mean) 59.71 _ 1881 _ the wettest week ending June 11 was 6.24" (2011) Jun 6 - Jun 12 __________ (max) 91.43 _ 1984 ______ (max) 63.71 _ 1869 Jun 6 - Jun 12 ___________ (min) 74.43 _ 1984 ______ (min) 52.71 _ 1878 Jun 6 - Jun 12 __________ (mean) 82.93 _ 1984 ____ (mean) 59.29 _ 1916 _ the wettest week ending June 12 was 6.24" (2011) Jun 7 - Jun 13 __________ (max) 92.71 _ 1984 ______ (max) 64.86 _ 1916 _ also 65.57 1869 Jun 7 - Jun 13 ___________ (min) 74.86 _ 1984 ______ (min) 53.29 _ 1980 Jun 7 - Jun 13 __________ (mean) 83.79 _ 1984 ____ (mean) 59.64 _ 1916 _ the wettest week ending June 13 was 7.37" (2011) _ highest weekly total ending on any June date (or incl June days). Jun 8 - Jun 14 __________ (max) 91.71 _ 1984 ______ (max) 65.29 _ 1916 Jun 8 - Jun 14 ___________ (min) 74.57 _ 1984*______ (min) 52.14 _ 1980 _* 2005_72.86 Jun 8 - Jun 14 __________ (mean) 83.14 _ 1984 ____ (mean) 60.07 _ 1916 _ the wettest week ending June 14 was 4.37" (1989) Jun 9 - Jun 15 __________ (max) 88.86 _ 1973 ______ (max) 65.71 _ 1916 Jun 9 - Jun 15 ___________ (min) 72.57 _ 1984 ______ (min) 53.71 _ 1951 Jun 9 - Jun 15 __________ (mean) 80.64 _ 1984 ____ (mean) 60.21 _ 1916 _ the wettest week ending June 15 was 4.65" (1989) Jun 10 - Jun 16 _________ (max) 88.57 _ 1891 ______ (max) 67.43 _ 1916 Jun 10 - Jun 16 __________ (min) 69.86 _ 1984, 2005 __ (min) 53.14 _ 1951 Jun 10 - Jun 16 _________ (mean) 78.07 _ 1891 ____ (mean) 61.14 _ 1916 _ the wettest week ending June 16 was 3.97" (1903) Jun 11 - Jun 17 _________ (max) 89.86 _ 1891, 1957 __ (max) 67.57 _ 1903 Jun 11 - Jun 17 __________ (min) 69.71 _ 1956,57 ___ (min) 53.86 _ 1951 Jun 11 - Jun 17 _________ (mean) 79.79 _ 1957 ____ (mean) 62.64 _ 1881 _ the wettest week ending June 17 was 3.98" (1903) Jun 12 - Jun 18 _________ (max) 91.43 _ 1957 ______ (max) 65.86 _ 1903 Jun 12 - Jun 18 __________ (min) 72.14 _ 1957 ______ (min) 55.00 _ 1951 Jun 12 - Jun 18 _________ (mean) 81.79 _ 1957 ____ (mean) 61.86 _ 1903 _ the wettest week ending June 18 was 4.09" (1903) Jun 13 - Jun 19 _________ (max) 91.86 _ 1957 ______ (max) 65.43 _ 1903 Jun 13 - Jun 19 __________ (min) 73.00 _ 1957 ______ (min) 54.43 _ 1933 Jun 13 - Jun 19 _________ (mean) 82.43 _ 1957 ____ (mean) 61.57 _ 1903 _ the wettest week ending June 19 was 4.10" (1972) Jun 14 - Jun 20 _________ (max) 91.00 _ 1957 ______ (max) 65.29 _ 1903 Jun 14 - Jun 20 __________ (min) 72.00 _ 1957 ______ (min) 54.71 _ 1959 Jun 14 - Jun 20 _________ (mean) 81.50 _ 1957 ____ (mean) 61.14 _ 1903 _ the wettest week ending June 20 was 4.09" (1972) Jun 15 - Jun 21 _________ (max) 90.57 _ 1957 ______ (max) 66.29 _ 1903 Jun 15 - Jun 21 __________ (min) 71.00 _ 1957 ______ (min) 54.57 _ 1926 Jun 15 - Jun 21 _________ (mean) 80.79 _ 1957 ____ (mean) 62.00 _ 1903 _ the wettest week ending June 21 was 4.30" (1972) Jun 16 - Jun 22 _________ (max) 89.43 _ 1957 ______ (max) 66.43 _ 1903 Jun 16 - Jun 22 __________ (min) 71.00 _ 1949 ______ (min) 55.29 _ 1926 Jun 16 - Jun 22 _________ (mean) 80.00 _ 1957 ____ (mean) 62.21 _ 1903 _ the wettest week ending June 22 was 5.49" (1972) Jun 17 - Jun 23 _________ (max) 89.43 _ 1888 ______ (max) 65.71 _ 1903 Jun 17 - Jun 23 __________ (min) 72.00*_2024 ___ (min) 55.86 _ 1918,26 *_70.71 1949, 2006 Jun 17 - Jun 23 _________ (mean) 80.86*_2024 ____ (mean) 61.86 _ 1903 *_79.36 _ 1994 _ the wettest week ending June 23 was 4.95" (1887) Jun 18 - Jun 24 _________ (max) 90.57 _ 1888 ______ (max) 65.14 _ 1903 Jun 18 - Jun 24 __________ (min) 73.00*_2024 ___ (min) 55.14 _ 1918 _ *72.29_2025, 71.00_ 1907, 2017 Jun 18 - Jun 24 _________ (mean) 81.14*_2024 ____ (mean) 61.50 _ 1903 _*80.64_2025, 79.57 _ 1943 _ the wettest week ending June 24 was 4.95" (1887) Jun 19 - Jun 25 _________ (max) 91.86 _ 1923 ______ (max) 65.71 _ 1903 _ *90.71 _ 2025 Jun 19 - Jun 25 __________ (min) 74.56*_ 2025 ______ (min) 54.57 _ 1918 *_72.71_2024, 71.29 _ 1908 Jun 19 - Jun 25 _________ (mean) 82.64*_2025 ____ (mean) 61.64 _ 1903 *_81.29 2024, 81.21 _ 1943 _ the wettest week ending June 25 was 4.64" (1887) Jun 20 - Jun 26 _________ (max) 92.29 _ 1923 ______ (max) 67.29 _ 1903 90.14 Jun 20 - Jun 26 __________ (min) 74.00 _ 1909,2025 ____ (min) 54.57 _ 1918 Jun 20 - Jun 26 _________ (mean) 82.21 _ 1943 ____ (mean) 62.43 _ 1903 _*82.07 _2025 _ the wettest week ending June 26 was 4.74" (1884) Jun 21 - Jun 27 _________ (max) 93.00 _ 1943 ______ (max) 69.14 _ 1903 Jun 21 - Jun 27 __________ (min) 75.71 _ 1909 ______ (min) 55.29 _ 1940 Jun 21 - Jun 27 _________ (mean) 82.86 _ 1943 ____ (mean) 63.36 _ 1940 _ the wettest week ending June 27 was 4.74" (1884) Jun 22 - Jun 28 _________ (max) 93.29 _ 1943 ______ (max) 69.14 _ 1903 Jun 22 - Jun 28 __________ (min) 76.14 _ 1909 ______ (min) 56.43 _ 1918 Jun 22 - Jun 28 _________ (mean) 83.21 _ 1943 ____ (mean) 64.07 _ 1893 _ the wettest week ending June 28 was 4.74" (1884) Jun 23 - Jun 29 _________ (max) 92.00 _ 1966 ______ (max) 69.29 _ 1903 _ also 69.43 1974 Jun 23 - Jun 29 __________ (min) 75.71 _ 1909 ______ (min) 56.57 _ 1893 Jun 23 - Jun 29 _________ (mean) 81.93 _ 1943 ____ (mean) 63.71 _ 1974 _ the wettest week ending June 29 was 4.74" (1884) Jun 24 - Jun 30 _________ (max) 92.00 _ 1966 ______ (max) 70.57 _ 1974 Jun 24 - Jun 30 __________ (min) 74.43 _ 1909 ______ (min) 56.43 _ 1893 Jun 24 - Jun 30 _________ (mean) 82.07 _ 1880 ____ (mean) 64.14 _ 1893 _ the wettest week ending June 30 was 4.80" (1984)

After ten days, anomalies and projections: ______________________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA (11th) ____ (anom 10d) ______ --2.7 _ --2.7 _ --0.7 __ +0.4 _--1.5 _+0.6 __ +1.5 _ +1.7 _ +1.7 (21st) ____ (anom 20d) ______ --0.2 _ +0.5 _ +3.0 __ +1.3 _--0.7 _+0.4 __ +2.1 _ --3.0 _ +2.2 (11th) ____ (p 20d anom) ____ --1.0 _ --1.0 __ 0.0 ___ +0.5 _ --1.0 _+1.0 __ +2.0 _ +1.5 _ +2.5 (11th) ____ (p27d anom) _____ --0.5 _--0.5 _ +0.5 __ +0.5 _ --0.5_ +1.0 __ +2.5 _ +1.5 _ +2.0 (21st) ____ (p31d anom) _____ +0.5 _ +1.0 _ +2.0 __ +2.0*__ 0.0 _ +1.0 __ +2.0 _ --2.0 _ +1.5 *ORD changed on 25th from +1.0 to +2.0 (28th) ____ (p31d anom) _____ +1.5 _ +1.5 _ +4.0 __ +3.0 __ 0.0 _ +0.5 __ +2.5 _ --2.0 _ +1.0 final values ___________________+1.5 _ +1.5 _ +4.2 __ +3.3 _ +0.2 _ +0.8 __ +2.5 _ --1.8 _ +0.1

CONTINUED REPORT ON WEEKLY EXTREMES for WEEKS ENDING IN MAY Intervals _______________ Highest values 1869-2021 __ Lowest values 1869-2021 Apr 25 - May 1 __________ (max) 79.29 _ 2009 ______ (max) 48.00 _ 1874 Apr 25 - May 1 ___________ (min) 56.57 _ 2009 ______ (min) 34.57 _ 1874 Apr 25 - May 1 __________ (mean) 67.93 _ 2009 ____ (mean) 41.29 _ 1874 _ the wettest week ending May 1 was 2014 (6.06") _ this is the highest weekly total that includes any days in May __ the highest total that has all days within May is 5.68" for May 23-29, 1968. Apr 26 - May 2 __________ (max) 76.43 _ 1990, 2009 ___ (max) 48.57 _ 1874 Apr 26 - May 2 ___________ (min) 57.00 _ 1983 ______ (min) 34.71 _ 1874 Apr 26 - May 2 __________ (mean) 66.64 _ 2009 ____ (mean) 41.64 _ 1874 _ the wettest week ending May 2 was 2014 (6.04") Apr 27 - May 3 __________ (max) 78.29 _ 2001 ______ (max) 50.86 _ 1909 Apr 27 - May 3 ___________ (min) 59.57 _ 1983 ______ (min) 34.86 _ 1874 Apr 27 - May 3 __________ (mean) 68.86 _ 1983 ____ (mean) 43.14 _ 1874 _ the wettest week ending May 3 was 2023 at 5.45" (formerly 2014 (5.20")) Apr 28 - May 4 __________ (max) 81.00 _ 2001 ______ (max) 51.86 _ 1909 Apr 28 - May 4 ___________ (min) 59.86 _ 1983 ______ (min) 35.57 _ 1874 Apr 28 - May 4 __________ (mean) 69.79 _ 2001 ____ (mean) 44.21 _ 1874 _ the wettest week ending May 4 was 2023 at 5.50" (formerly 2014 (5.22")) Apr 29 - May 5 __________ (max) 83.14 _ 2001 ______ (max) 51.29 _ 1917 Apr 29 - May 5 ___________ (min) 60.14 _ 2001 ______ (min) 37.57 _ 1874 Apr 29 - May 5 __________ (mean) 71.64 _ 2001 ____ (mean) 46.36 _ 1874, 1917 _ the wettest week ending May 5 was 2014 (5.22") _ 2023 was 5.17" Apr 30 - May 6 __________ (max) 82.86 _ 2001 _____ (max) 49.71 _ 1917 _* also 81.43_2010 Apr 30 - May 6 ___________ (min) 61.71 _ 2010 ______ (min) 38.86 _ 1874 Apr 30 - May 6 __________ (mean) 71.86*_ 2001 ___ (mean) 45.29 _ 1917 _* also 71.57_2010 _ the wettest week ending May 6 was 2014 (5.19") May 1 - May 7 ___________ (max) 83.71 _ 1930 ______ (max) 50.29 _ 1917 May 1 - May 7 ____________ (min) 61.14 _ 1930, 2010 ___ (min) 39.71 _ 1874 May 1 - May 7 __________ (mean) 72.43 _ 1930 ____ (mean) 45.50 _ 1917 _ the wettest week ending May 7 was 1893 (3.96") May 2 - May 8 ___________ (max) 84.29 _ 1930 ______ (max) 51.29 _ 1917 May 2 - May 8 ____________ (min) 63.43 _ 1930 _____ (min) 39.71 _ 1874 May 2 - May 8 __________ (mean) 73.86 _ 1930 ____ (mean) 46.14 _ 1917 _ the wettest week ending May 8 was 1908 (3.92") May 3 - May 9 ___________ (max) 84.29 _ 1930 ______ (max) 51.71 _ 1917 May 3 - May 9 ____________ (min) 63.00 _ 1930 _____ (min) 41.14 _ 1917 May 3 - May 9 __________ (mean) 73.64 _ 1930 ____ (mean) 46.43 _ 1917 _ the wettest week ending May 9 was 1908 (3.91") May 4 - May 10 __________ (max) 85.71 _ 1930 ______ (max) 52.14 _ 1917 May 4 - May 10 ___________ (min) 62.71 _ 1930 _____ (min) 41.57 _ 1917 May 4 - May 10 _________ (mean) 74.21 _ 1930 ____ (mean) 46.86 _ 1917 _ the wettest week ending May 10 was 1998 (4.21") May 5 - May 11 __________ (max) 86.00 _ 2000 ______ (max) 53.71 _ 1917 May 5 - May 11 ___________ (min) 63.00 _ 1895 _____ (min) 41.43 _ 2020 May 5 - May 11 _________ (mean) 74.14 _ 2000 ____ (mean) 48.21 _ 1917 _ the wettest week ending May 11 was 1998 (4.89") May 6 - May 12 __________ (max) 83.57 _ 2000 ______ (max) 55.43 _ 1967 (also 58.29_2020) May 6 - May 12 ___________ (min) 61.86 _ 2000 _____ (min) 41.00 _ 2020 May 6 - May 12 _________ (mean) 72.71 _ 2000 ____ (mean) 48.93 _ 1917 (also 49.64_1917, 2020) _ the wettest week ending May 12 was 2013 (4.62") May 7 - May 13 __________ (max) 82.29 _ 1970 ______ (max) 57.14 _ 1967 May 7 - May 13 ___________ (min) 61.71 _ 1979 _____ (min) 40.43 _ 2020 May 7 - May 13 _________ (mean) 70.64 _ 1979 ____ (mean) 50.14 _ 1967 _ the wettest week ending May 13 was 2013 (4.62") May 8 - May 14 __________ (max) 83.71 _ 1970 ______ (max) 57.43 _ 1882 May 8 - May 14 ___________ (min) 62.29 _ 1979 _____ (min) 40.57 _ 2020 May 8 - May 14 _________ (mean) 72.43 _ 1970 ____ (mean) 50.29 _ 2020 _ the wettest week ending May 14 was 2013 (4.62") May 9 - May 15 __________ (max) 83.43 _ 1970*______ (max) 56.14 _ 1878 _* 82.71 _ 1896 May 9 - May 15 ___________ (min) 62.00 _ 1979 _____ (min) 44.00 _ 2020 May 9 - May 15 _________ (mean) 72.43 _ 1970 ____ (mean) 50.50 _ 1878 _ the wettest week ending May 15 was 1978 (4.09") May 10 - May 16 __________ (max) 83.00 _ 1965 ______ (max) 55.57 _ 1882 May 10 - May 16 ___________ (min) 62.14 _ 1896 _____ (min) 43.14 _ 1878 May 10 - May 16 _________ (mean) 71.79 _ 1896 ____ (mean) 49.93 _ 1878 _ the wettest week ending May 16 was 1990 (4.76") May 11 - May 17 __________ (max) 84.43 _ 1991 ______ (max) 55.29 _ 1882 May 11 - May 17 ___________ (min) 61.57 _ 1991 _____ (min) 43.43 _ 1878 May 11 - May 17 _________ (mean) 73.00 _ 1991 ____ (mean) 50.14 _ 1878 _ the wettest week ending May 17 was 1978 (4.37") May 12 - May 18 __________ (max) 83.57 _ 1991 ______ (max) 56.00 _ 1882 May 12 - May 18 ___________ (min) 62.29 _ 1896 _____ (min) 44.29 _ 1878 _ 44.43 _ 1895 May 12 - May 18 _________ (mean) 72.36 _ 1991 ____ (mean) 50.64 _ 1882 _ the wettest week ending May 18 was 1978 (4.75") May 13 - May 19 __________ (max) 81.00 _ 1877 ______ (max) 56.71 _ 1882 May 13 - May 19 ___________ (min) 62.00 _ 1896 _____ (min) 45.14 _ 1882, 1895 May 13 - May 19 _________ (mean) 71.43 _ 1896 ____ (mean) 50.93 _ 1882 _ the wettest week ending May 19 was 1978 (4.75") May 14 - May 20 __________ (max) 83.43 _ 1877 ______ (max) 59.00 _ 1888 May 14 - May 20 ___________ (min) 62.29 _ 1889 _____ (min) 46.00 _ 1873, 1882 May 14 - May 20 _________ (mean) 72.79 _ 1877 ____ (mean) 52.79 _ 1882 _ the wettest week ending May 20 was 1978 (4.75") May 15 - May 21 __________ (max) 84.57 _ 1962 ______ (max) 59.57 _ 1888 May 15 - May 21 ___________ (min) 63.00 _ 1889, 1903 __ (min) 46.14 _ 1888 May 15 - May 21 _________ (mean) 72.57 _ 1903 ____ (mean) 52.86 _ 1888 _ the wettest week ending May 21 was 2011 (4.22") May 16 - May 22 __________ (max) 84.71 _ 1962 ______ (max) 60.29 _ 1881 May 16 - May 22 ___________ (min) 64.14 _ 1903 _____ (min) 46.29 _ 2002 May 16 - May 22 _________ (mean) 73.57 _ 1903 ____ (mean) 53.86 _ 1895 _ the wettest week ending May 22 was 1989 (3.35") May 17 - May 23 __________ (max) 86.00 _ 1962 ______ (max) 60.57 _ 1881 May 17 - May 23 ___________ (min) 63.86 _ 1903 _____ (min) 45.71 _ 2002 May 17 - May 23 _________ (mean) 73.43 _ 1903 ____ (mean) 55.29 _ 1888 _ 55.36 _ 2002 _ the wettest week ending May 23 was 1979 (3.76") May 18 - May 24 __________ (max) 86.86 _ 1962*______ (max) 59.86 _ 1892 _* 83.71 _ 1964 May 18 - May 24 ___________ (min) 63.00 _ 1911 ______ (min) 45.86 _ 2002 _ 46.43 _ 1976 May 18 - May 24 _________ (mean) 73.21 _ 1962*____ (mean) 54.07 _ 1892 _* 72.79 _ 1975 _ the wettest week ending May 24 was 1979 (4.11") May 19 - May 25 __________ (max) 86.14 _ 1962 ______ (max) 59.86 _ 1892 May 19 - May 25 ___________ (min) 63.14 _ 1880, 1908 __ (min) 47.71 _ 1976, 2002 May 19 - May 25 _________ (mean) 73.36 _ 1962 ____ (mean) 53.93 _ 1892 _ the wettest week ending May 25 was 1979 (4.36") May 20 - May 26 __________ (max) 85.14 _ 1880 ______ (max) 59.57 _ 1907 May 20 - May 26 ___________ (min) 65.71 _ 1880 _____ (min) 45.07 _ 1907 May 20 - May 26 _________ (mean) 75.43 _ 1880 ____ (mean) 52.57 _ 1907 _ the wettest week ending May 26 was 1979 (3.64") May 21 - May 27 __________ (max) 87.29 _ 1880*______ (max) 58.71 _ 1907 _* 83.71 _ 1941 May 21 - May 27 ___________ (min) 68.14 _ 1880 _____ (min) 45.86 _ 1967 May 21 - May 27 _________ (mean) 77.71 _ 1880 ____ (mean) 52.50 _ 1907 _ the wettest week ending May 27 was 1979 (3.63") May 22 - May 28 _________ (max) 87.71 _ 1880*______ (max) 59.14 _ 1907 _* 84.14 _ 1914 May 22 - May 28 _________ (min) 68.43 _1880*_____ (min) 46.71 _ 1907 _ 47.00 _ 1963 also *_66.43_1908, 66.29_2024 May 22 - May 28 _________ (mean) 78.07 _ 1880 ____ (mean) 52.93 _ 1907 _ the wettest week ending May 28 was 1979 (3.83") May 23 - May 29 __________ (max) 87.71 _ 1880 ______ (max) 59.57 _ 1907 May 23 - May 29 ___________ (min) 67.71 _ 1880 _____ (min) 47.14 _ 1907 May 23 - May 29 _________ (mean) 77.71 _ 1880 ____ (mean) 53.36 _ 1907 _ the wettest week ending May 29 was 1968 (5.68") _ wettest week with all days within month of May. __ a higher total of 6.06" (2014) was recorded from Apr 25 to May 1. May 24 - May 30 __________ (max) 88.14 _ 1991 ______ (max) 60.57 _ 1907 May 24 - May 30 ___________ (min) 67.14 _ 2016 _____ (min) 46.71 _ 1907 May 24 - May 30 _________ (mean) 77.57 _ 1991 ____ (mean) 53.64 _ 1907 _ the wettest week ending May 30 was 1968 (5.50") May 25 - May 31 __________ (max) 89.00 _ 1991 ______ (max) 60.29 _ 1907 May 25 - May 31 ___________ (min) 69.00 _ 2016 _____ (min) 47.14 _ 1930 May 25 - May 31 _________ (mean) 78.79 _ 1991 ____ (mean) 53.86 _ 1907 _ the wettest week ending May 31 was 1984 (5.54") .

Table of forecasts for August 2021 FORECASTER ___________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ DEN _PHX _SEA ___ bias Roger Smith _____________ +1.5 _+1.8 _+2.0 __ +2.0 _+1.5 _+1.0 __ +1.5 _ -0.5 _+0.8 ___ +0.70 wxallannj ________________ +1.2 _+1.4 _+1.6 __ +1.7 _ -0.8 _ -1.2 __ +1.4 _ -0.5 _+0.5 ___ +0.00 RJay _____________________ +1.0 _+1.2 _+0.7 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ +2.5 _+1.0 _+2.0 ___ +0.34 Scotty Lightning _________ +1.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 __ +1.0 _+1.5 _+2.0 ___ +1.0 _+1.5 _+0.5 ___ +0.58 so_whats_happening ____ +0.8 _+1.0 _ -0.8 __ -1.4 _ -0.3 _+0.4 __ +1.1 _ +0.3 _+1.4 ___ -0.31 hudsonvalley21 __________ +0.5 _+0.9 _+0.4 __ -0.7 _ -0.5 _-0.2 __ +1.6 _+0.7 _+1.2 ___ -0.16 ___ Consensus ___________ +0.5 _+0.9 _+0.8 __ +0.5 _-0.3 _-0.1 __ +1.3 _+0.5 _+1.2 BKViking ____ (-1%) ______+0.5 _+0.8 _+0.7 __ +0.4 _-0.2 _+0.9 __ +1.5 _+0.5 _+1.5 ___ +0.14 DonSutherland1 _________ +0.4 _+0.6 _+0.5 ___ 0.0 _ -0.7 _ -1.0 __ +0.2 _+0.9 _+1.6 ___ -0.31 wxdude64 _______________ +0.3 _+0.6 _+1.1 __ +1.2 _ -0.4 _ -0.8 __ +1.1 _+0.9 _+0.2 ___ -0.12 Tom ______________________+0.2 _+0.5 _+0.5 __ -0.1 _+0.9 _+0.5 __ +1.5 _+0.5 _+1.1 ___ +0.03 Deformation Zone ________ 0.0 _+0.5 _+1.0 __ +0.5 _ -1.0 _ -2.0 __ +0.5 _-2.5 _+1.5 ___ -0.76 ___ Normal _______________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ -0.59 RodneyS _________________-0.4 _ -0.1 _+0.9 __ +1.7 _ -0.5 _ -0.7 ___ +0.4 _-0.8 _+1.2 ___ -0.40

<<<< ============ - - - - Annual Scoring for 2021 (Jan-July) - - - - ============ >>>> High scores for nine locations shown in red, high scores for regions in bold. June provisional scores are used and adjustments will be made here to reflect changes there. New feature _ change in rank is shown after forecaster name. No entry there means same position as last month. Normal passed three forecasters in July, but they remained in same order relative to each other, so their change is shown as zero, Normal is shown up 3. RodneyS moved ahead of four and also consensus, which is why consensus is shown down 1. FORECASTER _________________DCA_NYC_BOS__east_ ORD_ATL_IAH__cent __c/e ___DEN_PHX_SEA__west___TOTALS DonSutherland1 ______________ 486 _508 _386 _ 1380 __447 _528 _472 _1447__2827 __322 _492 _468 _ 1282___ 4109 BKViking ______________________478 _522 _409 _ 1409 __350 _490 _432 _ 1272__2681 __358 _452 _482 _ 1292___ 3973 RodneyS (up 4) _______________488 _506 _361 _ 1355 __333 _510 _412 _ 1255 __2610 __390 _476 _480 _ 1346___ 3956 wxdude64 (down 1) __________ 537 _501 _403 _ 1441 __ 325 _448 _431 _ 1204__2645 __427 _449 _431 _ 1307___ 3952 ___ Consensus (down 1) _____ 508 _522 _390 _ 1420 __340 _458 _438 _ 1236 __2656 __360 _438 _458 _ 1256___ 3912 wxallannj (up 1) ________________434 _480 _372 _ 1286 __320 _440 _494 _ 1254 __2540 __448 _441 _474 _1363___ 3903 Tom (down 2) __________________496 _537 _436 _ 1469__298 _399 _462 _ 1159 __2628 __410 _445 _414 _ 1269___ 3897 hudsonvalley21 (down 2) _____ 480 _490 _427 _ 1397 __341 _504 _410 _ 1255 __2652 __308 _425 _496 _ 1229___ 3881 ___ Normal (up 3) _____________ 498 _448 _310 _ 1256 __234 _464 _466 _ 1164 __2420 __416 _436 _432 _ 1284___ 3704 so_whats_happening __________ 515 _471 _301 _ 1287 __394 _508 _351 _ 1253 __2540 __290 _428 _427 _ 1145___ 3685 Scotty Lightning _______________474 _472 _334 _ 1280 __252 _440 _412 _ 1104 __2384 __386 _442 _470 _ 1298___ 3682 RJay __________________________ 410 _436 _404 _ 1250 __356 _410 _394 _ 1160 __2410 __296 _347 _370 _ 1013___ 3423 Roger Smith ___________________ 414 _348 _165 __ 927 __323 _364 _446 _ 1133 __ 2060 __316 _375 _428 _ 1119___ 3179 Deformation Zone _ (1/8) ______ 68 __ 30 __ 25 __ 123 __ 40 __ 50 __ 98 __ 188 ____ 311 __ 62 _ 30^_ 68 ___ 160 ____ 471 Best scores for the locations and regions FORECASTER _______________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ east __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ cent __ c/e ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA __ west ___ Totals DonSutherland1 ______________ 2 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 2 ______ 2 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 3 ____ 3 _____ 0 ____ 3 ____ 1 _____ 0 _____ 1 __ Jan BKViking _____________________ 0 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 1 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 2 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 2 _____ 0 _____ 1 __ Apr RodneyS _____________________ 2 ____ 2 ____ 1 _____ 1 ______ 1 ____ 2 ____ 0 ____ 2 ____ 1 _____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 1 _____ 2 __ Feb, Jul wxdude64 ____________________ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 1 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 2 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 2 _____ 1 __ Mar (t) ___ Consensus _______________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 ____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 _____ 0 _____ 0 __ wxallannj _____________________ 0 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 0 ______ 1 ____ 1 ____ 2 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 3 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 2 _____ 0 __ Tom __________________________ 1 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 1 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 1 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 _____ 1 _____ 1 __ May hudsonvalley21 _______________ 0 ____ 0 ____0 _____ 1 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____0 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 3 _____ 0 _____ 0 __ ___ Normal ___________________ 2 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 1 ______ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 1 ____ 2 ____ 0 _____ 1 _____ 1 __ May, Jul so_whats_happening _________ 2 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 1 ____ 2 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 _____ 1 __ Mar (t) Scotty Lightning ______________ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 1 ____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 _____ 0 _____ 0 __ RJay _________________________ 0 ____ 1 _____ 4 _____ 1 ______ 1 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 1 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 __ Roger Smith __________________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 1 ____ 1 ____ 2 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 2 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 1 _____ 1 __Jun Deformation Zone ____________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- EXTREME FORECAST STANDINGS High score must go to either the extreme warm or cold forecast, or second most extreme, for a station to qualify. So far this year, 46 locations out of 63 have qualified, 4 in Jan, 5 in Feb, 7 in March, 6 in April, 8 in May, June and July. Of those, 22 were awarded to warmest forecasts, 24 to coldest. A loss in the standings represents a case where second most extreme forecast had the high score and the win for that month. Normal can only win along with a forecaster. There have been six shared wins (one by three) accounting for the 46 total wins (excl Normal). FORECASTER _________ Jan __ Feb __ Mar _ Apr _ May _ Jun _ Jul _____ TOTAL to date RodneyS ______________ ---- __ --- __ ---- __ --- __ 2-1 __ 1-0 __ 6-0 ___ 9-1 wxallannj ______________ ---- __ --- __ --- __ 3-0 __ 2-0 __ 3-0 __ --- ___ 8-0 ___ Normal _____________--- __ --- __ 2-0 __ ---- __ 1-0 __ --- __ 5-0 ___ 8-0 DonSutherland1 _______ 2-0 __ 1-0 __ 2-0 __ 0-1 __ 2-0 __ 1-0 __ --- ___ 8-1 Roger Smith ___________ 2-1 __ 2-0 __ --- __ 1-0 __ 1-0 __ 2-0 __ --- ___ 8-1 RJay ___________________ --- __ --- __ 2-0 __ 2-0 __ 1-0 __ 1-0 __ --- ___ 6-0 so_whats_happening ___--- __ 1-0 __ 2-0 __ --- __ --- __ 1-0 __ ---- ___ 4-0 wxdude64 _____________ --- __ 1-0 __ 2-0 __ --- __ --- __ --- __ ---- ___ 3-0 Tom ____________________---- __ --- __ --- __ --- __ 1-0 __ 1-0 __ ---- ___ 2-0 BKViking _______________ ---- __ --- __ --- __ --- __ 1-0 __ 1-0 __ 0-1 ___ 2-1 Scotty Lightning _______ ---- __ --- __ ---- __ --- __ --- __ 1-1 __ 1-0 ___ 2-1 Deformation Zone _____ ---- __ --- __ --- __ --- __ --- __ ---- __ 1-0 ___ 1-0

I have the idea that this month will turn hot in the east towards the end, whether that overcomes a cool start or not remains to be seen, but will go a bit warmer than I might otherwise from the guidance available ... +1.5 _ +1.8 _ +2.0 __ +2.0 _ +1.5 _ +1.0 __ +1.5 __ -0.5 _ +0.8

CONTINUED REPORT ON WEEKLY EXTREMES for WEEKS ENDING IN APRIL Intervals _______________ Highest values 1869-2021 __ Lowest values 1869-2021 Mar 26 - Apr 1 ___________ (max) 78.43 _ 1998*_____ (max) 37.14 _ 1887 _ * 74.43 _ 1945 Mar 26 - Apr 1 ___________ (min) 56.57 _ 1998*______ (min) 20.43 _ 1923 _ * 53.86 _ 1945 Mar 26 - Apr 1 __________ (mean) 67.50 _ 1998*____ (mean) 30.21 _ 1887 _ * 64.14 _ 1945 _ the wettest week ending Apr 1 was 2010 (4.52") Mar 27 - Apr 2 ___________ (max) 78.29 _ 1998*_____ (max) 37.86 _ 1887 _ * 74.71 _ 1945 Mar 27 - Apr 2 ___________ (min) 57.86 _ 1998*______ (min) 19.57 _ 1923 _ * 55.00 _ 1945 Mar 27 - Apr 2 __________ (mean) 68.07 _ 1998*____ (mean) 30.36 _ 1923 _ * 64.86 _ 1945 _ the wettest week ending Apr 2 was 2005 (4.85") Mar 28 - Apr 3 ___________ (max) 75.00 _ 1998*_____ (max) 40.43 _ 1881 _ * 74.86 _ 1945 Mar 28 - Apr 3 ___________ (min) 56.57 _ 1998*______ (min) 20.71 _ 1923 _ * 54.29 _ 1945 Mar 28 - Apr 3 __________ (mean) 65.79 _ 1998*____ (mean) 31.93 _ 1923 _ * 64.57 _ 1945 _ the wettest week ending Apr 3 was 2005 (4.90") Mar 29 - Apr 4 ___________ (max) 70.57 _ 1945, 1986 __ (max) 39.43 _ 1881 Mar 29 - Apr 4 ___________ (min) 53.00 _ 1998 ______ (min) 25.57 _ 1923 _ * 52.14 _ 1945 Mar 29 - Apr 4 __________ (mean) 61.71 _ 1998*____ (mean) 35.07 _ 1881 _ * 61.36 _ 1945 _ the wettest week ending Apr 4 was 1987 (4.48") Mar 30 - Apr 5 ___________ (max) 68.57 _ 1981 _____ (max) 37.71 _ 1881 Mar 30 - Apr 5 ___________ (min) 53.71 _ 1981 ______ (min) 27.00 _ 1874 Mar 30 - Apr 5 __________ (mean) 65.14 _ 1981 ____ (mean) 33.21 _ 1881 _ the wettest week ending Apr 5 was 1987 (4.49") Mar 31 - Apr 6 ___________ (max) 70.14 _ 2010 _____ (max) 36.71 _ 1881 Mar 31 - Apr 6 ___________ (min) 52.14 _ 1981 ______ (min) 27.29 _ 1874 Mar 31 - Apr 6 __________ (mean) 60.00 _ 2010*____ (mean) 32.07 _ 1881 _ * 59.71 _ 1981 _ the wettest week ending Apr 6 was 1987 (4.64") Apr 1 - Apr 7 ___________ (max) 75.14 _ 2010 _____ (max) 38.29 _ 1881 Apr 1 - Apr 7 ___________ (min) 51.43 _ 2010 ______ (min) 26.29 _ 1881 Apr 1 - Apr 7 __________ (mean) 63.29 _ 2010 ____ (mean) 32.29 _ 1881 _ the wettest week ending Apr 7 was 1984 (4.37") Apr 2 - Apr 8 ___________ (max) 76.57 _ 2010 _____ (max) 40.00 _ 1881 Apr 2 - Apr 8 ___________ (min) 53.71 _ 2010 ______ (min) 26.14 _ 1881 Apr 2 - Apr 8 __________ (mean) 65.14 _ 2010 ____ (mean) 33.07 _ 1881 _ the wettest week ending Apr 8 was 1984 (4.37") Apr 3 - Apr 9 ___________ (max) 76.57 _ 2010*_____ (max) 42.43 _ 1881 _* 71.71_1929 (see low max -Apr 17, 18) Apr 3 - Apr 9 ___________ (min) 53.14 _ 1991, 2010 __ (min) 27.00 _ 1881 Apr 3 - Apr 9 __________ (mean) 64.86 _ 2010 ____ (mean) 34.71 _ 1881 _ the wettest week ending Apr 9 was 1984 (4.37") Apr 4 - Apr 10 ___________ (max) 77.71 _ 1991*_____ (max) 42.86 _ 1891, 2003 (also 43.71_1982) * _ 75.86 _ 2010 Apr 4 - Apr 10 ___________ (min) 55.00 _ 1991 ______ (min) 27.71 _ 1982 _ 29.86 _ 1975 Apr 4 - Apr 10 __________ (mean) 66.36 _ 1991 ____ (mean) 35.71 _ 1982 _ the wettest week ending Apr 10 was 1983 (5.68") Apr 5 - Apr 11 ___________ (max) 77.00 _ 1991*_____ (max) 43.14 _ 2003 * _ 75.86 _ 2010 Apr 5 - Apr 11 ___________ (min) 55.29 _ 1991 ______ (min) 29.00 _ 1982 Apr 5 - Apr 11 __________ (mean) 66.14 _ 1991 ____ (mean) 36.64 _ 1982 _ the wettest week ending Apr 11 was 1983 (5.68") Apr 6 - Apr 12 ___________ (max) 76.29 _ 1991*_____ (max) 43.00 _ 1894 * _ 74.71 _ 2010 Apr 6 - Apr 12 ___________ (min) 54.14 _ 1991 ______ (min) 30.43 _ 1982 Apr 6 - Apr 12 __________ (mean) 65.21 _ 1991 ____ (mean) 37.79 _ 1982 _ the wettest week ending Apr 12 was 1983 (5.68") Apr 7 - Apr 13 ___________ (max) 72.71 _ 1991*_____ (max) 44.14 _ 1894 * _ 71.57_2010, 70.71_1871 Apr 7 - Apr 13 ___________ (min) 52.29 _ 1991 ______ (min) 30.86 _ 1874 _ 31.00 _ 1880 Apr 7 - Apr 13 __________ (mean) 62.50 _ 1991 ____ (mean) 39.07 _ 1874 _ the wettest week ending Apr 13 was 1983 (5.68") Apr 8 - Apr 14 ___________ (max) 74.14 _ 2023*_____ (max) 45.29 _ 1935 * _ 73.14_1945, 71.14 _ 1922 Apr 8 - Apr 14 ___________ (min) 53.00 _ 2023* ______ (min) 30.29 _ 1874 * _ 52.29 _ 1945 Apr 8 - Apr 14 __________ (mean) 63.57 _ 2023* ____ (mean) 39.29 _ 1885 * _ 62.71 _ 1945 _ the wettest week ending Apr 14 was 1983 (5.59") Apr 9 - Apr 15 ___________ (max) 77.14 _ 2023* _____ (max) 42.43 _ 1885 _* 72.71 _ 1945 Apr 9 - Apr 15 ___________ (min) 56.14 _ 2023* ______ (min) 31.14 _ 1874 _ *53.00 _ 1945 Apr 9 - Apr 15 __________ (mean) 66.64 _ 2023* ____ (mean) 37.71 _ 1885 _ * 62.86 _ 1945 _ the wettest week ending Apr 15 was 2007 (8.95") Apr 10 - Apr 16 __________ (max) 79.14 _ 2023* _____ (max) 44.14 _ 1885 _ * 73.29 _ 2017 Apr 10 - Apr 16 __________ (min) 58.57 _ 2023*______ (min) 31.43 _ 1874 _ * 54.00 _ 2017 53.14 _ 1945 Apr 10 - Apr 16 _________ (mean) 68.86 _ 2023* ____ (mean) 39.36 _ 1885 _*63.64 _ 2017 _ the wettest week ending Apr 16 was 2007 (9.85") Apr 11 - Apr 17 __________ (max) 79.14 _ 2023* _____ (max) 44.43 _ 1929 (see Apr 3-9 1929 note) _ *76.43 _ 2002 Apr 11 - Apr 17 __________ (min) 60.14 _ 2023* ______ (min) 31.57 _ 1874 _ * 57.57_2002, 54.71 _ 2017 Apr 11 - Apr 17 _________ (mean) 69.64 _ 2023* ____ (mean) 40.50 _ 1929 _ * 67.00_2002, 64.00 _ 2017 _ the wettest week ending Apr 17 was 2007 (9.89") _ this was (tied with Apr 12-18) the highest weekly total for April. Apr 12 - Apr 18 __________ (max) 80.86 _ 2002*_____ (max) 43.43 _ 1929 _ * 76.71 _ 1977, 76.57 _ 2023 Apr 12 - Apr 18 __________ (min) 61.86 _ 2002* ______ (min) 31.57 _ 1875 _ *59.29 _ 2023 Apr 12 - Apr 18 _________ (mean) 71.36 _ 2002 ____ (mean) 37.57 _ 1875 _ *67.93 _ 2023 _ the wettest week ending Apr 18 was 2007 (9.89") _ this was (tied with Apr 11-17) the highest weekly total for April. Apr 13 - Apr 19 __________ (max) 85.43 _ 2002 _____ (max) 42.43 _ 1875 _ * 81.57 _ 1976 Apr 13 - Apr 19 __________ (min) 64.57 _ 2002 ______ (min) 29.71 _ 1875 Apr 13 - Apr 19 _________ (mean) 75.00 _ 2002 ____ (mean) 36.07 _ 1875 _ the wettest week ending Apr 19 was 2007 (8.52") Apr 14 - Apr 20 __________ (max) 85.43 _ 1976*_____ (max) 43.29 _ 1875 _ * 84.71 _ 2002, 79.86 _ 1941 Apr 14 - Apr 20 __________ (min) 64.57 _ 2002*______ (min) 29.57 _ 1875 _ * 61.14 _ 1976 Apr 14 - Apr 20 _________ (mean) 74.64 _ 2002*____ (mean) 36.43 _ 1875 _ * 73.29 _ 1976 _ the wettest week ending Apr 20 was 2007 (8.52") Apr 15 - Apr 21 __________ (max) 86.29 _ 1976*_____ (max) 42.00 _ 1875 * 82.57 _ 2002 Apr 15 - Apr 21 __________ (min) 63.57 _ 2002*______ (min) 29.00 _ 1875 _ * 62.00 _ 1976 Apr 15 - Apr 21 _________ (mean) 74.14 _ 1976*____ (mean) 35.50 _ 1875 _ * 72.86 _ 2002 _ the wettest week ending Apr 21 was 2007 (8.52") Apr 16 - Apr 22 __________ (max) 85.29 _ 1976 _____ (max) 41.14 _ 1875 Apr 16 - Apr 22 __________ (min) 61.57 _ 1976 ______ (min) 27.14 _ 1875 _ * 61.14 _ 2002 Apr 16 - Apr 22 _________ (mean) 73.43 _ 1976 ____ (mean) 34.14 _ 1875 _ the wettest week ending Apr 22 was 1983 (4.38") Apr 17 - Apr 23 __________ (max) 84.29 _ 1976 _____ (max) 42.86 _ 1875 Apr 17 - Apr 23 __________ (min) 60.71 _ 1976*______ (min) 27.43 _ 1875 Apr 17 - Apr 23 _________ (mean) 72.50 _ 1976 ____ (mean) 35.14 _ 1875 _ the wettest week ending Apr 23 was 2006 (3.57") Apr 18 - Apr 24 __________ (max) 80.29 _ 1976*_____ (max) 46.57 _ 1875 _ * 78.00 _ 1886 Apr 18 - Apr 24 __________ (min) 57.71 _ 1976*______ (min) 28.57 _ 1875 _ * 55.86 _ 1952 Apr 18 - Apr 24 _________ (mean) 69.00 _ 1976 ____ (mean) 37.57 _ 1875 _ the wettest week ending Apr 24 was 2006 (3.80") Apr 19 - Apr 25 __________ (max) 76.29 _ 1886 _____ (max) 49.29 _ 1875 Apr 19 - Apr 25 __________ (min) 54.00 _ 1952*______ (min) 29.86 _ 1875 _ * 53.86 _ 1869 Apr 19 - Apr 25 _________ (mean) 63.93 _ 1886 ____ (mean) 39.57 _ 1875 _ the wettest week ending Apr 25 was 1901 (3.98") Apr 20 - Apr 26 __________ (max) 74.29 _ 1886 _____ (max) 49.00 _ 1874 Apr 20 - Apr 26 __________ (min) 53.71 _ 1954 ______ (min) 32.57 _ 1875 Apr 20 - Apr 26 _________ (mean) 63.29 _ 1954 ____ (mean) 42.43 _ 1875 _ the wettest week ending Apr 26 was 1901 (3.98") Apr 21 - Apr 27 __________ (max) 77.57 _ 1962 _____ (max) 49.86 _ 1874 Apr 21 - Apr 27 __________ (min) 55.00 _ 1979 ______ (min) 34.86 _ 1875 Apr 21 - Apr 27 _________ (mean) 63.21 _ 1957 ____ (mean) 43.57 _ 1874 _ the wettest week ending Apr 27 was 1889 (4.12") Apr 22 - Apr 28 __________ (max) 79.86 _ 1962 _____ (max) 48.43 _ 1874 Apr 22 - Apr 28 __________ (min) 55.86 _ 1979 ______ (min) 36.00 _ 1874 Apr 22 - Apr 28 _________ (mean) 65.86 _ 2009 ____ (mean) 42.21 _ 1874 _ the wettest week ending Apr 28 was 1889 (4.16") Apr 23 - Apr 29 __________ (max) 79.00 _ 1962*_____ (max) 46.71 _ 1874 _ * 78.86 _ 2009 Apr 23 - Apr 29 __________ (min) 57.43 _ 1908*______ (min) 35.14 _ 1874 _ * 56.57 _ 1979 Apr 23 - Apr 29 _________ (mean) 66.93 _ 2009 ____ (mean) 40.93 _ 1874 _ the wettest week ending Apr 29 was 2023 (4.30") _ 1889 previous record (4.17") Apr 24 - Apr 30 __________ (max) 79.43 _ 2009 _____ (max) 47.43 _ 1874 Apr 24 - Apr 30 __________ (min) 57.00 _ 1908 ______ (min) 34.14 _ 1874 Apr 24 - Apr 30 _________ (mean) 67.57 _ 2009 ____ (mean) 40.79 _ 1874 _ the wettest week ending Apr 30 was 2014 (5.94") __________________________________________________________________________________ (note: the comment that follows was originally placed after some data in this post from July, later edited into monthly tables)

Final scoring for July 2021 Scoring is based on the projected anomalies last calculated in the previous post. PHX and BOS currently scored by minimum progression (max 60) as highest raw scores are 54 and 56. Scoring is probably final, BOS has to be confirmed but is likely to need the minimum progression as shown. Also the quality control step has not been passed at this point (where I double check scoring before adjusting the annual summary). FORECASTER _____________DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent _ c/e _ DEN_PHX_SEA__west ___ TOTALS ___ Normal _________________98 _ 70 _ 66 __ 234 __ 80 _ 80 _ 78 __ 238 __ 472 __ 68 _ 64 _ 82__ 214 ____ 686 RodneyS __________________ 96 _ 60 _ 60^__ 216 __ 62 _98 _ 76__ 236 __ 452 __ 90 _ 60^_ 78 __ 228 ____ 680 wxallannj ___________________68 _ 30 _ 30^__ 128 __ 56 _ 74 _ 94 __ 224 __ 352 __ 98 _ 55^_ 78 __ 231 ____ 583 hudsonvalley21 ____________ 54 _ 36 _ 45^__ 135 __ 54 _ 64 _ 74 __ 192 __ 327 __ 96 _ 45^_ 90 __ 231 ____ 558 DonSutherland1 ____________58 _ 34 _ 50^__ 142 __ 50 _ 82 _ 82 __ 214 __ 356 __ 74 _ 40^_ 84 __ 198 ____ 554 wxdude64 __________________84 _ 20 _ 25^__ 129 __ 36 _ 88 _ 88 __ 212 __ 341 __ 94 _ 20^_ 66 __ 180 ____ 521 Scotty Lightning ____________58 _ 40 _ 55^__ 153 __ 60 _ 50 _ 38 __ 148 __ 301 __ 88 _ 30^_ 98 __ 216 ____ 517 Tom ________________________ 60 _ 32 _ 40^__ 132 __ 40 _ 58 _ 68 __ 166 __ 298 __ 96 _ 40^_ 82 __ 218 ____ 516 BKViking ____________________62 _ 28 _ 35^__ 125 __ 42 _ 70 _ 86 __ 198 __ 323 __ 78 _ 50^_ 60 __ 188 ____ 511 ___ Consensus _____________ 60 _ 30 _ 32^__ 122 __ 44 _ 62 _ 76 __ 182 __ 304 __ 94 _ 32^_ 74 __ 200 ____ 504 Deformation Zone ___________68 _ 30 _ 25^__ 123 __ 40 _ 50 _ 98 __ 188 __ 311 __ 62 _ 30^_ 68 __ 160 ____ 471 so_whats_happening ________62 _ 24 _ 15^__ 101 ___ 46 _ 58 _ 66 __ 170 __ 271 __ 72 _ 15^_ 70 __ 157 ____ 428 RJay ________________________ 38 _ 10 _ 10^__ 058 __ 30 _ 60 _ 78 __ 168 __ 226 __ 72 _ 15^_ 68 __ 155 ____ 381 Roger Smith ________________ 58 _ 26 _ 10^__ 094 __ 14 _ 50 _ 48 __ 112 ___ 206 __ 52 _ 05^_ 48 __ 105 ____ 311 _________________________________________________ EXTREME FORECAST REPORT DCA _ At -0.1, a win for RodneyS with coldest forecast (-0.3). Normal also has a win. NYC _ At -1.5, a win for RodneyS with coldest forecast (+0.5). Normal also scores a win. BOS _ At -1.5 or lower, a win for RodneyS with coldest forecast (+0.5). Normal also scores a win. ORD _ At -1.0, a win for RodneyS with coldest forecast (+0.9). Normal also scores a win. ATL _ At -1.0, a win for RodneyS with coldest forecast (-0.9). IAH _ At -1.1, this is a loss for BKViking with coldest forecast (-1.8) and a win for Deformation Zone with second coldest (-1.0). PHX _ At -1.8, a win for RodneyS with coolest forecast (+0.5). Normal also scores a win. SEA _ At +0.9, a win for Scotty Lightning with coldest forecast (+1.0). summary: 6 wins for RodneyS, five for Normal, one each for Scotty Lightning and Deformation Zone. A loss for BKViking. __________ DEN (+1.6) finished closer to our consensus than the other eight and does not qualify for an extreme forecast. __________ I may need a bit of extra time to get to the annual update, scores are generally close together for most and there won't be much change in the order. ___________ _ _ _ _ _ Annual scoring summary will follow when these numbers are confirmed (only small adjustments are likely).

The CF6 now saying 97F for DCA on 26th ... which makes these the highest so far ... _____________________________________________DCA_ IAD_ BWI_ RIC Updated highs for the year as of July 27th __ 97 _ 97 _ 99 _ 96 Lots of time left for these to increase.

Predict the temperature anomalies (F deg) relative to 1991-2020 average or "normal" values. DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA deadline: 06z Sunday August 1st.

CONTINUED REPORT ON WEEKLY EXTREMES for WEEKS ENDING IN MARCH Note for weeks ending March 1 to 6, some can start in leap years on Feb 24 to Feb 29, and others in non-leap years start from Feb 23 to Feb 28. The entries for those dates show the most extreme values first, and then the most extreme examples from the other set (as it turns out, a majority of the overall extremes are in leap years). This division is not employed for highest precipitation totals (the extremes can include leap year day, or not). Space is available for secondary extremes but they are only valid within the sub-groups when shown. (ly = leap years, and nly = non leap years ... the overall extremes are underlined for weeks ending Mar 1-6, the order of presentation is leap years, then non leap years.) Intervals _______________ Highest values 1869-2021 __ Lowest values 1869-2021 Feb 24 - Mar 1 ly ________ (max) 63.29 _ 1976 (ly) __ (max) 29.86 _ 1876 (ly) (Feb 23 - Mar 1) nly ______ (max) 60.71 _ 2017 (nly) _ (max) 24.43 _ 1934 (nly) Feb 24 - Mar 1 ly ________ (min) 40.00 _ 1976 (ly) __ (min) 16.71 _ 1920 (ly) (Feb 23 - Mar 1) nly _____ (min) 45.43 _ 2017 (nly) __ (min) 10.86 _ 1934 (nly) Feb 24 - Mar 1 ly _______ (mean) 51.64 _ 1976 (ly) ___ (mean) 24.29 _ 1920 (ly) Feb 24 - Mar 1 nly ______ (mean) 53.07 _ 2017 (nly) __ (mean) 17.64 _ 1934 (nly) _ the wettest week ending Mar 1 was 2010 (4.80") _ included 20.9" snow Feb 25 - Mar 2 ly ________ (max) 61.71 _ 1976 (ly) __ (max) 30.00 _ 1884 (ly) (Feb 24 - Mar 2) nly ______ (max) 60.57 _ 2017 (nly) _ (max) 26.00 _ 1934 (nly) Feb 25 - Mar 2 ly ________ (min) 41.00 _ 1976 (ly) __ (min) 15.43 _ 1920 (ly) (Feb 24 - Mar 2) nly _____ (min) 44.14 _ 2017 (nly) __ (min) 13.00 _ 1934 (nly) Feb 25 - Mar 2 ly _______ (mean) 51.36 _ 1976 (ly) ___ (mean) 22.93 _ 1920 (ly) (Feb 24 - Mar 2) nly ____ (mean) 52.36 _ 2017 (nly) __ (mean) 19.50 _ 1934 (nly) _ the wettest week ending Mar 2 was 2010 (3.61") _ included 20.9" snow Feb 26 - Mar 3 ly ________ (max) 56.86 _ 1972,76 (ly) *__ (max) 28.00 _ 1884 (ly) _ * 55.14 2024 (Feb 25 - Mar 3) nly ______ (max) 56.14 _ 2017 (nly) _ (max) 30.71 _ 1886 (nly) Feb 26 - Mar 3 ly ________ (min) 39.29 _ 1976 (ly) __ (min) 15.86 _ 1980 (ly) (Feb 25 - Mar 3) nly _____ (min) 40.71 _ 1902,1998 (nly) __ (min) 14.86 _ 1886 (nly) Feb 26 - Mar 3 ly _______ (mean) 48.07 _ 1976 (ly) ___ (mean) 22.64 _ 1884 (ly) (Feb 25 - Mar 3) nly ____ (mean) 47.71 _ 2017 (nly) __ (mean) 22.79 _ 1886 (nly) _ the wettest week ending Mar 3 was 2010 (3.26") _ included 20.9" snow Feb 27 - Mar 4 ly ________ (max) 58.29 _ 1880 (ly)* __ (max) 25.71 _ 1884 (ly) _ * 55.71 2024 (Feb 26 - Mar 4) nly ______ (max) 54.00 _ 1997 (nly) _ (max) 29.14 _ 1886 (nly) Feb 27 - Mar 4 ly ________ (min) 40.14 _ 2024 (ly) __ (min) 14.29 _ 1884 (ly) (Feb 26 - Mar 4) nly _____ (min) 41.14 _ 1998 (nly) __ (min) 13.57 _ 1886 (nly) Feb 27 - Mar 4 ly _______ (mean) 48.71 _ 1880, 2004 (ly) _ (mean) 20.00 _ 1884 (ly) (Feb 26 - Mar 4) nly ____ (mean) 47.36 _ 1998 (nly) __ (mean) 21.36 _ 1886 (nly) _ the wettest week ending Mar 4 was 1991 (3.23") _ included 8.9" snow Feb 28 - Mar 5 ly ________ (max) 58.86 _ 1880*(ly) __ (max) 24.00 _ 1884 (ly)_ * 56.86 _ 1972 (Feb 27 - Mar 5) nly ______ (max) 56.14 _ 1961 (nly) _ (max) 28.00 _ 1886 (nly) Feb 28 - Mar 5 ly ________ (min) 42.14 _ 2004* (ly) __ (min) 11.14 _ 1884 (ly) _ * 1880 _ 41.71 (Feb 27 - Mar 5) nly _____ (min) 40.57 _ 1998 (nly) __ (min) 15.71 _ 1886 (nly) Feb 28 - Mar 5 ly _______ (mean) 50.29 _ 1880 (ly) ___ (mean) 17.57 _ 1884 (ly) (Feb 27 - Mar 5) nly ____ (mean) 47.14 _ 1991 (nly) __ (mean) 21.86 _ 1886 (nly) _ the wettest week ending Mar 5 was 1914 (3.11") _ included 14.5" snow Feb 29 - Mar 6 ly ________ (max) 59.14 _ 2004 (ly) __ (max) 24.43 _ 1884 (ly) (Feb 28 - Mar 6) nly ______ (max) 58.43 _ 1991 (nly) _ (max) 31.14 _ 1978 (nly) Feb 29 - Mar 6 ly ________ (min) 44.29 _ 2004 (ly) __ (min) 12.14 _ 1872 (ly) (Feb 28 - Mar 6) nly _____ (min) 41.43 _ 1979 (nly) __ (min) 16.86 _ 1869 (nly) Feb 29 - Mar 6 ly _______ (mean) 51.71 _ 2004 (ly) ___ (mean) 18.93 _ 1884 (ly) (Feb 28 - Mar 6) nly ____ (mean) 49.57 _ 1991 (nly) __ (mean) 24.64 _ 1886 (nly) _ the wettest week ending Mar 6 was 1914 (3.40") _ included 17.4" snow Mar 1 - Mar 7 ___________ (max) 59.57 _ 1991 _____ (max) 27.43 _ 1884 Mar 1 - Mar 7 ___________ (min) 44.00 _ 2004 ______ (min) 11.71 _ 1872 Mar 1 - Mar 7 __________ (mean) 51.14 _ 2004 ____ (mean) 20.57 _ 1872 _ the wettest week ending Mar 7 was 2018 (3.65") _ included 3.2" snow Mar 2 - Mar 8 ___________ (max) 57.57 _ 1974 _____ (max) 28.57 _ 1888 Mar 2 - Mar 8 ___________ (min) 44.14 _ 2024* ______ (min) 13.00 _ 1872 _ * 42.43 _1979, 2004 Mar 2 - Mar 8 __________ (mean) 50.29 _ 2024* ____ (mean) 21.64 _ 1872 _ 42.43 _ * 49.64_1974 _ the wettest week ending Mar 8 was 1967 (3.49") _ included 2.0" snow Mar 3 - Mar 9 ___________ (max) 59.00 _ 1946 _____ (max) 29.57 _ 1888 Mar 3 - Mar 9 ___________ (min) 44.00 _ 2024 ______ (min) 14.14 _ 1872 Mar 3 - Mar 9 __________ (mean) 49.79 _ 2024*____ (mean) 22.64 _ 1888 _ * 49.43 _ 1946 _ the wettest week ending Mar 9 was 1967 (3.49") _ included 2.0" snow Mar 4 - Mar 10 __________ (max) 60.14 _ 2000 _____ (max) 30.71 _ 1888 Mar 4 - Mar 10 __________ (min) 43.14 _ 1979 ______ (min) 15.86 _ 1872, 1883 Mar 4 - Mar 10 _________ (mean) 50.57 _ 2000 ____ (mean) 23.57 _ 1872 _ the wettest week ending Mar 10 was 1967 (3.49") _ included 2.0" snow Mar 5 - Mar 11 __________ (max) 62.29 _ 2016 _____ (max) 32.29 _ 1960 Mar 5 - Mar 11 __________ (min) 42.57 _ 2016 ______ (min) 16.29 _ 1883 Mar 5 - Mar 11 _________ (mean) 52.43 _ 2016 ____ (mean) 24.50 _ 1883 (25.07 _ 1960) _ the wettest week ending Mar 11 was 2011 (4.09") Mar 6 - Mar 12 __________ (max) 64.86 _ 2016 _____ (max) 32.83 _ 1960 Mar 6 - Mar 12 __________ (min) 44.29 _ 2016 ______ (min) 17.43 _ 1883, 1960 Mar 6 - Mar 12 _________ (mean) 54.57 _ 2016 ____ (mean) 25.14 _ 1960 _ the wettest week ending Mar 12 was 2011 (4.08") Mar 7 - Mar 13 __________ (max) 67.43 _ 2016 _____ (max) 31.71 _ 1874 Mar 7 - Mar 13 __________ (min) 46.86 _ 2016 ______ (min) 16.86 _ 1885 _ 17.43 _ 1960 Mar 7 - Mar 13 _________ (mean) 57.14 _ 2016 ____ (mean) 25.00 _ 1885 _ the wettest week ending Mar 13 was 2010 (4.07") Mar 8 - Mar 14 __________ (max) 66.14 _ 2016 _____ (max) 31.14 _ 1874 Mar 8 - Mar 14 __________ (min) 47.43 _ 2016 ______ (min) 16.57 _ 1885 Mar 8 - Mar 14 _________ (mean) 56.79 _ 2016 ____ (mean) 25.07 _ 1885 _ the wettest week ending Mar 14 was 2011 (4.08") Mar 9 - Mar 15 __________ (max) 65.43 _ 1990*_____ (max) 31.71 _ 1874, 1896 _ * 64.71 _ 2016, 63.43 _ 1977 Mar 9 - Mar 15 __________ (min) 47.00 _ 2016 ______ (min) 19.14 _ 1885 Mar 9 - Mar 15 _________ (mean) 55.86 _ 2016 ____ (mean) 25.93 _ 1885 _ the wettest week ending Mar 15 was 1953 (5.08") Mar 10 - Mar 16 _________ (max) 70.29 _ 1990 _____ (max) 31.29 _ 1896 Mar 10 - Mar 16 _________ (min) 47.57 _ 2016 ______ (min) 20.00 _ 1900 Mar 10 - Mar 16 ________ (mean) 57.64 _ 1990*____ (mean) 26.00 _ 1896 _ * 55.29_2016, 54.50_1977 _ the wettest week ending Mar 16 was 1953 (5.10") Mar 11 - Mar 17 _________ (max) 73.00 _ 1990 _____ (max) 30.71 _ 1900 Mar 11 - Mar 17 _________ (min) 46.57 _ 1990 ______ (min) 17.14 _ 1900 Mar 11 - Mar 17 ________ (mean) 59.79 _ 1990 ____ (mean) 23.93 _ 1900 _ the wettest week ending Mar 17 was 1953 (5.10") Mar 12 - Mar 18 _________ (max) 72.00 _ 1990 _____ (max) 31.86 _ 1900 Mar 12 - Mar 18 _________ (min) 47.00 _ 1990* ______ (min) 16.14 _ 1885 (17.00 1888) _ * 45.86 _ 2024 Mar 12 - Mar 18 ________ (mean) 59.50 _ 1990 ____ (mean) 25.50 _ 1885 _ the wettest week ending Mar 18 was 1953 (5.30") Mar 13 - Mar 19 _________ (max) 71.43 _ 1990*_____ (max) 30.71 _ 1877 _ * 66.14 _ 1945, 64.71 _ 1927 Mar 13 - Mar 19 _________ (min) 48.00 _ 2012 ______ (min) 18.29 _ 1885 Mar 13 - Mar 19 ________ (mean) 59.00 _ 1990*____ (mean) 25.93 _ 1885 _ * 55.93 _ 2012 _ the wettest week ending Mar 19 was 1953 (4.64") Mar 14 - Mar 20 _________ (max) 70.00 _ 1945 _____ (max) 30.00 _ 1877 (31.29 1885) Mar 14 - Mar 20 _________ (min) 48.14 _ 2012*______ (min) 17.14 _ 1916 _ * 47.14 _ 1945 Mar 14 - Mar 20 ________ (mean) 58.57 _ 1945*____ (mean) 23.93 _ 1916 _ * 55.93 _ 2012 _ the wettest week ending Mar 20 was 1983 (3.37") Mar 15 - Mar 21 _________ (max) 71.00 _ 1945 _____ (max) 29.00 _ 1885 (31.29 1877) Mar 15 - Mar 21 _________ (min) 49.14 _ 2012*______ (min) 16.29 _ 1885 (16.71 1916) _ * 47.14_1945 Mar 15 - Mar 21 ________ (mean) 59.07 _ 1945*____ (mean) 22.64 _ 1885 * 56.21 _ 2012 _ the wettest week ending Mar 21 was 1983 (4.46") Mar 16 - Mar 22 _________ (max) 67.71 _ 1945*_____ (max) 25.71 _ 1885 (30.43 1967) _* 67.00_2012, 66.43_2010, 64.43_1948) Mar 16 - Mar 22 _________ (min) 51.00 _ 2012 ______ (min) 13.14 _ 1885 (19.29 _ 1967) Mar 16 - Mar 22 ________ (mean) 59.00 _ 2012 ____ (mean) 19.43 _ 1885 (24.86 1967) _ the wettest week ending Mar 22 was 1983 (4.46") Mar 17 - Mar 23 _________ (max) 70.57 _ 2012 _____ (max) 24.29 _ 1885 (30.86 1967) Mar 17 - Mar 23 _________ (min) 53.14 _ 2012*______ (min) 11.86 _ 1885 _ * 48.86 _ 2010 Mar 17 - Mar 23 ________ (mean) 61.86 _ 2012 ____ (mean) 18.07 _ 1885 _ the wettest week ending Mar 23 was 1983 (4.46") Mar 18 - Mar 24 _________ (max) 71.00 _ 2012 _____ (max) 26.00 _ 1885 _ * 67.57 _ 1938 Mar 18 - Mar 24 _________ (min) 53.43 _ 2012 ______ (min) 13.00 _ 1885 (21.71 1888) _ * 48.86 _ 2010 Mar 18 - Mar 24 ________ (mean) 62.21 _ 2012 ____ (mean) 19.50 _ 1885 _ the wettest week ending Mar 24 was 1983 (4.46") Mar 19 - Mar 25 _________ (max) 69.29 _ 2012*_____ (max) 27.57 _ 1885 _ * 67.86 _ 1938 Mar 19 - Mar 25 _________ (min) 53.29 _ 2012*______ (min) 16.00 _ 1885 (22.14 1888) _ * 48.57 _ 2010 Mar 19 - Mar 25 ________ (mean) 61.29 _ 2012 ____ (mean) 21.79 _ 1885 _ the wettest week ending Mar 25 was 1876 (6.75") _ includes 1.5" snow Mar 20 - Mar 26 _________ (max) 66.43 _ 2012*_____ (max) 29.86 _ 1885 _ * 65.00 _ 1913, 63.86 _ 1921 Mar 20 - Mar 26 _________ (min) 50.29 _ 2012*______ (min) 17.86 _ 1885 (23.29 1888) _ * 46.57 _ 1938 Mar 20 - Mar 26 ________ (mean) 58.36 _ 2012*____ (mean) 23.86 _ 1885 _ * 55.21 _ 1913 _ the wettest week ending Mar 26 was 1876 (6.81") _ includes 1.5" snow _ _ _ this is the highest weekly amount within March including cases using days from other months. Mar 21 - Mar 27 _________ (max) 66.57 _ 2021*_____ (max) 34.71 _ 1885 _ * 66.00 _ 1913 Mar 21 - Mar 27 _________ (min) 46.71 _ 1903, 2012*__ (min) 21.86 _ 1885 (22.86 1888) _ * 46.57 _ 1938 Mar 21 - Mar 27 ________ (mean) 56.50 _ 2021 ____ (mean) 28.29 _ 1885 _ the wettest week ending Mar 27 was 1876 (6.16") _ includes 0.5" snow. Mar 22 - Mar 28 _________ (max) 66.86 _ 1946*_____ (max) 35.00 _ 1888 _ * 65.14 _ 1949 Mar 22 - Mar 28 _________ (min) 48.71 _ 1949 ______ (min) 23.00 _ 1888 Mar 22 - Mar 28 ________ (mean) 56.93 _ 1949 ____ (mean) 29.00 _ 1888 _ the wettest week ending Mar 28 was 1876 (4.66") _ includes 0.5" snow Mar 23 - Mar 29 _________ (max) 71.43 _ 1945*_____ (max) 35.86 _ 1888 _ * 68.00 _ 1946, 65.71 _ 1949 Mar 23 - Mar 29 _________ (min) 49.29 _ 1945*______ (min) 25.29 _ 1887 _ * 47.71 _ 2021 Mar 23 - Mar 29 ________ (mean) 60.36 _ 1945 ____ (mean) 30.79 _ 1888 _ the wettest week ending Mar 29 was 1876 (4.88")_ includes 0.5" snow Mar 24 - Mar 30 _________ (max) 73.57 _ 1945*_____ (max) 39.71 _ 1887 _ * 70.29_1998, 69.14_1946, 66.00_1949 Mar 24 - Mar 30 _________ (min) 52.29 _ 1945*______ (min) 23.86 _ 1887 _ * 49.71_1998 Mar 24 - Mar 30 ________ (mean) 62.93 _ 1945 ____ (mean) 31.79 _ 1887 _ the wettest week ending Mar 30 was 1876 (4.88")_ includes 0.5" snow Mar 25 - Mar 31 _________ (max) 75.57 _ 1998*_____ (max) 38.57 _ 1887 _ * 73.57 _ 1945 Mar 25 - Mar 31 _________ (min) 54.29 _ 1998*______ (min) 23.14 _ 1923 _ * 53.43 _ 1945 Mar 25 - Mar 31 ________ (mean) 64.93 _ 1998*____ (mean) 31.07 _ 1885 _ * 63.50 _ 1945 _ the wettest week ending Mar 31 was 1876 (4.88") _ includes 0.5" snow __ __ this is the last maximum weekly amount that includes measurable snow until Nov 9-15 (1892).

I think you'll have a very hot August, when this western heat ridge flattens out a bit more even if only half of its effect reaches the east coast it will be like 1944 with prolonged mid to high 90s. Where I live (about 150 miles north of Spokane WA near the border) we have averaged an incredible 100F for a max over thirty days now. Normal here is about 86F. These super hot temperatures broke records set in mid-July 1941. If you look at what happened after that, the temperature often went above normal in the east and peaked in early October in relative terms, with October's highest temperature at NYC of 94F recorded. So in that case it took about 2.5 months for the heat to translate east. It may be a bit faster this time, if not then September may be the most anomalous month.

I am old enough to remember the 1966 heat wave in the east and this reminds me of that, weeks of mid to high 90s with low humidity levels, a few slightly cooler days in between and no significant rainfall. But in terms of anomaly this is more significant (1966 peaked around 98 to 100 F at various locations), the only thing I can really compare this to would be the 1936 heat wave in some parts of the central U.S., or maybe in terms of anomaly, Dec 2015 in many areas. This is a fairly warm area in an average summer but quite often we don't get this sort of weather until about now, having it from mid-June onward is the really odd part. Late June usually brings one or two cool and wet intervals and July is rarely this dry, August more often has a long dry spell that breaks towards the end of the month.

If today and tomorrow average 37 C here, there will be a 30-day interval from June 17 to July 16 with an average high of 37 C. That is about 7 to 8 deg above normal (C deg = 1.8 F deg). Quite the anomaly, I would imagine the previous maximum anomaly in the summer in this region was half of that. Normally the next 30 days are the hottest portion of the summer so if this goes on another 30 days ... well I hope it doesn't, the results will not be good if it stays this hot and dry (in the 30 days the official rainfall is 0.8 mm which is not enough to drown the spiders building webs in the rain gauge. At my location I estimate 3-5 mm fell (it was just one brief interlude about a week ago that has left no trace).

I will guess August 9-10.

Record July rainfalls (2021 will pass 1919 in 6th place with any new measurable rainfalls) and what these months had recorded after 13 days in brackets ... 1. 1889 __ 11.89" (2.08") 2. 1975 __ 11.77" (5.08") 3. 1897 ___ 9.56" (3.29") 4. 1928 ___ 8.89" (6.10") 5. 1880 ___ 8.53" (5.22") 6. 1919 ___ 8.50" (0.86") 7. 2021 was 8.49" after 13th 8. 1997 ___ 8.39" (1.70") 9. 1960 ___ 8.29" (1.90") 10. 1988 ___ 8.14" (0.69") ______________________________________________ Looks like 2021 is easily going to get to third place and may be edging into top spots near the end of the month (from the current guidance, would say another inch likely by 25th and then more speculative heavy rainfalls depicted near end of the month). In the weekly summary thread that I started recently, I noted that 2021 had broken weekly rainfall records for several consecutive intervals and the peak amounts (6.58" ending 12th and 13th) represent the second highest totals for any week fully within July with 6.75" from 25th to 31st 1889 the only higher value. Also these were the wettest weeks at NYC since June 7-13 2013 had over seven inches of rain. They were also the wettest weeks at NYC for any week ending June 14 to July 30 (1869 to present).

Heavy rainfalls in the past week have broken a number of the existing weekly totals as noted in the tables. The 6.58" peak amount for weeks ending July 12 and 13 represents the second highest July weekly total, only 25-31 of 1889 surpassed this with 6.75". Going back, the last week (in the calendar year) to exceed 6.58" was June 7-13 (2013, record 7.37") and as it turns out that is also the most recent weekly total higher than these recent peaks.

CONTINUED REPORT ON WEEKLY EXTREMES for WEEKS ENDING IN FEBRUARY Intervals _______________ Highest values 1869-2021 __ Lowest values 1869-2021 Jan 26 - Feb 1 ___________ (max) 57.71 _ 2002*_____ (max) 22.86 _ 1936 _ * 56.29 _ 1916 Jan 26 - Feb 1 ___________ (min) 41.29 _ 2002 ______ (min) 6.14 _ 1935 Jan 26 - Feb 1 __________ (mean) 49.50 _ 2002*____ (mean) 15.07 _ 1936 _ * 47.86 _ 1916 _ the wettest week ending Feb 1 was 1976 (3.71") Jan 27 - Feb 2 ___________ (max) 55.43 _ 2002 _____ (max) 22.43 _ 1881, 1936 Jan 27 - Feb 2 ___________ (min) 40.14 _ 2002 ______ (min) 6.14 _ 1935 Jan 27 - Feb 2 __________ (mean) 47.79 _ 2002*____ (mean) 15.93 _ 1936 _ * 46.00 _ 1989 _ the wettest week ending Feb 1 was 1973 (6.03") _ included 1.8" snow\ __ __ this is the highest weekly total that includes any days in February. See Feb 21-27 and 22-28 for all __ __ __ days within February. Jan 28 - Feb 3 ___________ (max) 53.14 _ 2006*_____ (max) 21.29 _ 1881 _ * 52.71 _ 2002 Jan 28 - Feb 3 ___________ (min) 40.14 _ 2006 ______ (min) 8.14 _ 1888 (9.29 _ 1961) Jan 28 - Feb 3 __________ (mean) 46.64 _ 2006 ____ (mean) 15.29 _ 1881 _ the wettest week ending Feb 3 was 1973 (4.54") _ included 1.8" snow. Jan 29 - Feb 4 ___________ (max) 52.86 _ 1991 _____ (max) 21.57 _ 1881 Jan 29 - Feb 4 ___________ (min) 41.00 _ 2006 ______ (min) 8.57 _ 1881 Jan 29 - Feb 4 __________ (mean) 46.71 _ 2006 ____ (mean) 15.07 _ 1881 _ the wettest week ending Feb 4 was 1973 (3.99") _ included 1.8" snow Jan 30 - Feb 5 ___________ (max) 55.71 _ 1991 _____ (max) 22.29 _ 1881 (23.86 1918) Jan 30 - Feb 5 ___________ (min) 40.00 _ 2006 ______ (min) 7.57 _ 1881 Jan 30 - Feb 5 __________ (mean) 46.50 _ 1991*____ (mean) 14.93 _ 1881 * _ 46.36 _ 2006 _ the wettest week ending Feb 5 was 1915 (3.95") _ included 6.1" snow Jan 31 - Feb 6 ___________ (max) 56.43 _ 1991 _____ (max) 21.14 _ 1886 Jan 31 - Feb 6 ___________ (min) 39.00 _ 2006 ______ (min) 6.86 _ 1918 (8.29, 1881,86) Jan 31 - Feb 6 __________ (mean) 46.71 _ 1991 ____ (mean) 14.71 _ 1886 _ the wettest week ending Feb 6 was 1920 (4.41") _ included 17.0" snow Feb 1 - Feb 7 ___________ (max) 55.71 _ 1991 _____ (max) 20.57 _ 1886 Feb 1 - Feb 7 ___________ (min) 39.00 _ 1991 ______ (min) 7.71 _ 1886 (8.00 1881) Feb 1 - Feb 7 __________ (mean) 47.36 _ 1991 ____ (mean) 14.14 _ 1886 _ the wettest week ending Feb 7 was 1920 (4.43") _ included 17.5" snow Feb 2 - Feb 8 ___________ (max) 57.43 _ 1991*_____ (max) 19.14 _ 1895 _ * 51.14 _ 2019 Feb 2 - Feb 8 ___________ (min) 41.43 _ 1991 ______ (min) 6.14 _ 1895 Feb 2 - Feb 8 __________ (mean) 49.43 _ 1991 ____ (mean) 12.64 _ 1895 _ the wettest week ending Feb 8 was 1920 (4.43") _ included 17.5" snow Feb 3 - Feb 9 ___________ (max) 58.00 _ 1991 _____ (max) 17.43 _ 1895 Feb 3 - Feb 9 ___________ (min) 42.43 _ 1991 ______ (min) 4.43 _ 1895 (4.57 1934) Feb 3 - Feb 9 __________ (mean) 50.21 _ 1991 ____ (mean) 10.93 _ 1895 _ the wettest week ending Feb 9 was 1920 (4.43") _ included 17.5" snow Feb 4 - Feb 10 __________ (max) 55.86 _ 1991 _____ (max) 16.43 _ 1895 Feb 4 - Feb 10 __________ (min) 42.00 _ 1991 ______ (min) 3.71 _ 1934 (5.29 1895, 6.43 1875) Feb 4 - Feb 10 _________ (mean) 48.93 _ 1991 ____ (mean) 10.86 _ 1895 (13.36 1934, 14.93 1875) _ the wettest week ending Feb 10 was 1920 (4.63") _ included 19.1" snow Feb 5 - Feb 11 __________ (max) 53.43 _ 1990*_____ (max) 16.43 _ 1895 _ * 51.29 _ 2023 Feb 5 - Feb 11 __________ (min) 38.57 _ 1991 ______ (min) 3.86 _ 1934 (6.14 1895) Feb 5 - Feb 11 _________ (mean) 45.21 _ 1991 ____ (mean) 11.29 _ 1895 _ the wettest week ending Feb 11 was 1896 (3.21") _ included 1.5" snow Feb 6 - Feb 12 __________ (max) 54.71 _ 1990*_____ (max) 18.00 _ 1899 _ * 51.14 2023, 51.00 2009, 50.29 _ 1925 Feb 6 - Feb 12 __________ (min) 38.43 _ 1965, 2024*__ (min) 5.57_ 1934 (7.57 1899) _ * 37.71 2023, 36.29_1990 Feb 6 - Feb 12 _________ (mean) 45.50 _ 1990*____ (mean) 12.79 _ 1899 (14.21 1885) _ * 45.07_2024, 44.43_2023, 43.57_1925 _ the wettest week ending Feb 12 was 1896 (3.20") _ included 1.5" snow Feb 7 - Feb 13 __________ (max) 54.29 _ 1990*_____ (max) 15.14 _ 1899 _ * 52.71 2009, 51.86 2023, 51.57 1898 Feb 7 - Feb 13 __________ (min) 39.00 _ 2024* ______ (min) 5.00 _ 1899 (6.00 1934) _ * 38.71_2023, 38.14 1965, 37.43_1956 Feb 7 - Feb 13 _________ (mean) 45.29 _ 2023, 2024 _ (mean) 10.07 _ 1899 _* 45.21_1990 _ the wettest week ending Feb 13 was 1886 (3.41") Feb 8 - Feb 14 __________ (max) 55.00 _ 1990*_____ (max) 14.57 _ 1899 _ * 53.43 2023, 51.43 2009, 51.29 1898 Feb 8 - Feb 14 __________ (min) 40.14 _ 2023* ______ (min) 3.00 _ 1899 (4.71 1934) _* 38.57 1898 Feb 8 - Feb 14 _________ (mean) 46.79 _ 2023*____ (mean) 8.79 _ 1899 _ * 45.64_1990, 44.57_1966 _ the wettest week ending Feb 14 was 1886 (3.41") Feb 9 - Feb 15 __________ (max) 55.43 _ 2023*_____ (max) 15.14 _ 1899 _ * 52.71 _ 1990, 52.43 _ 1966 Feb 9 - Feb 15 __________ (min) 41.29 _ 2023* ______ (min) 4.00 _ 1899 (6.57 1979) _*39.29 1966 Feb 9 - Feb 15 _________ (mean) 48.36 _ 2023* ____ (mean) 9.57 _ 1899 (13.57 1979) _*45.86 1966 _ the wettest week ending Feb 15 was 1869 (3.50") Feb 10 - Feb 16 _________ (max) 57.57 _ 2023*_____ (max) 18.86 _ 1899 _ * 55.00_2018, 52.14_1984 Feb 10 - Feb 16 _________ (min) 43.29 _ 2023*______ (min) 7.00 _ 1979 (8.00 1899) _* 40.14_1984, 39.71_1966 Feb 10 - Feb 16 ________ (mean) 50.43 _ 2023*____ (mean) 13.43 _ 1899 (13.71 1979) _ * 46.14_1984 46.00_2018, 45.64_1966 _ the wettest week ending Feb 16 was 1869 (3.50") Feb 11 - Feb 17 _________ (max) 57.57 _ 2023*_____ (max) 19.29 _ 1979 (22.29 1958) _ * 53.57_2018, 53.43_1976 Feb 11 - Feb 17 _________ (min) 41.86 _ 1984*______ (min) 6.71 _ 1979 (7.43 1914) _* 41.43 2023 Feb 11 - Feb 17 ________ (mean) 49.50 _ 2023*____ (mean) 13.00 _ 1979 (15.14 1914) _ * 46.86_1984, 44.50_2018 _ the wettest week ending Feb 17 was 1886 (3.41") Feb 12 - Feb 18 _________ (max) 57.14 _ 2023* ____ (max) 19.14 _ 1979 (22.29 1958) _ *52.29 1880, 1984 Feb 12 - Feb 18 _________ (min) 41.86 _ 1984* ______ (min) 6.29 _ 1979 (8.00 1899) _*40.14 2023 Feb 12 - Feb 18 ________ (mean) 48.64 _ 2023* ____ (mean) 12.71 _ 1979 _ *47.07 1984 _ the wettest week ending Feb 18 was 1869 (3.14") _ included 2.0" snow Feb 13 - Feb 19 _________ (max) 57.43 _ 2023*_____ (max) 20.43 _ 1979 (23.43 1958) _ *55.00 1949 Feb 13 - Feb 19 _________ (min) 41.43 _ 1984* ______ (min) 8.00 _ 1979 (11.14 1958) _*40.00 2023 Feb 13 - Feb 19 ________ (mean) 48.71 _ 1949*____ (mean) 14.21 _ 1979 (16.71 1958) _ * 46.21 1949, 46.07_1984 _ the wettest week ending Feb 19 was 1869 (3.20") _ included 2.5" snow Feb 14 - Feb 20 _________ (max) 58.00 _ 2023*_____ (max) 23.43 _ 1958 (26.29 2015) _ * 56.71_1954, 55.71_1949 Feb 14 - Feb 20 _________ (min) 42.29 _ 1984* ______ (min) 9.43 _ 2015 (12.29 1958) _ *40.86 2023 Feb 14 - Feb 20 ________ (mean) 49.43 _ 2023*____ (mean) 17.00 _ 1979 (17.86 1958, 2015) _ * 47.86 1981, 47.00_1984 _ the wettest week ending Feb 20 was 1898 (3.82") Feb 15 - Feb 21 _________ (max) 58.29 _ 1954*_____ (max) 25.00 _ 1923 (26.29 2015) _ * 57.43_2023 56.86_2018 56.43_1981 Feb 15 - Feb 21 _________ (min) 43.14 _ 1981*______ (min) 9.00 _ 1896, 2015 _* 42.29_1984 40.43 2023 Feb 15 - Feb 21 ________ (mean) 49.79 _ 1981*____ (mean) 17.64 _ 2015 _ * 48.93 2023, 48.64_1954 _ the wettest week ending Feb 21 was 1898 (3.92") Feb 16 - Feb 22 _________ (max) 57.71 _ 1981*_____ (max) 25.57 _ 1885 _ * 56.86_1954 56.43_2018 Feb 16 - Feb 22 _________ (min) 44.71 _ 1981 ______ (min) 6.43 _ 1896 Feb 16 - Feb 22 ________ (mean) 51.21 _ 1981*____ (mean) 16.57 _ 1896 _ the wettest week ending Feb 22 was 1898 (3.81") Feb 17 - Feb 23 _________ (max) 56.71 _ 1981*_____ (max) 22.86 _ 1885 _ * 56.14_2017, 55.86_2022, 55.43_1997 Feb 17 - Feb 23 _________ (min) 45.29 _ 1981 ______ (min) 9.43 _ 1896 Feb 17 - Feb 23 ________ (mean) 51.00 _ 1981*____ (mean) 17.57 _ 1885 _ the wettest week ending Feb 23 was 1898 (3.88") _ included 0.3" snow Feb 18 - Feb 24 _________ (max) 60.29 _ 2017*_____ (max) 23.00 _ 1885 _ * 57.14_1997 Feb 18 - Feb 24 _________ (min) 45.57 _ 1981*______ (min) 12.29 _ 2015 _* 43.57 _ 2017 Feb 18 - Feb 24 ________ (mean) 51.93 _ 2017*____ (mean) 18.14 _ 1885 _ * 50.00_1930 _ the wettest week ending Feb 24 was 1898 (3.88") _ included 0.3" snow Feb 19 - Feb 25 _________ (max) 63.29 _ 1930*_____ (max) 24.57 _ 1885 _ * 60.29 _ 2017 Feb 19 - Feb 25 _________ (min) 45.00 _ 1930*______ (min) 11.00 _ 1914 (12.43 2015) _ * 44.86_2017 Feb 19 - Feb 25 ________ (mean) 54.14 _ 1930*____ (mean) 18.71 _ 1914 _ * 52.57_2017 _ the wettest week ending Feb 25 was 1898 (3.88") _ included 0.3" snow Feb 20 - Feb 26 _________ (max) 63.29 _ 1930*_____ (max) 26.43 _ 1885 _ * 58.71_1985 Feb 20 - Feb 26 _________ (min) 44.00 _ 1930*______ (min) 9.71 _ 1914 (13.00 1934) _* 43.86_1996 Feb 20 - Feb 26 ________ (mean) 53.64 _ 1930*____ (mean) 18.93 _ 1914 _ * 50.71_1985 _ the wettest week ending Feb 26 was 2010 (4.82") _ included 20.9" snow Feb 21 - Feb 27 _________ (max) 60.00 _ 1985*_____ (max) 26.43 _ 1934 _ * 59.00_1930 Feb 21 - Feb 27 _________ (min) 43.86 _ 1996 ______ (min) 12.14 _ 1914 (13.29 1934) Feb 21 - Feb 27 ________ (mean) 51.36 _ 1985 ____ (mean) 19.86 _ 1934 _ the wettest week ending Feb 27 was 2010 (4.83") _ included 20.9" snow _ _ this total (tied with 22nd-28th 2010) is the highest weekly total where all days are in February. Feb 22 - Feb 28 _________ (max) 59.57 _ 1985*_____ (max) 25.14 _ 1934 _ * 58.71_1976 Feb 22 - Feb 28 _________ (min) 43.71 _ 2017 ______ (min) 12.43 _ 1934 Feb 22 - Feb 28 ________ (mean) 51.29 _ 2017*____ (mean) 18.79 _ 1934 _ * 50.50_1985 _ the wettest week ending Feb 28 was 2010 (4.83") _ included 20.9" snow _ _ this total (tied with 21st-27th 2010) is the highest weekly total where all days are in February. _ leap years only qualify for these records _ Feb 23 - Feb 29 _________ (max) 59.57 _ 1976 _____ (max) 30.57 _ 1876 Feb 23 - Feb 29 _________ (min) 39.86 _ 2000*______ (min) 18.00 _ 1876 _* 37.57_1976 Feb 23 - Feb 29 ________ (mean) 48.57 _ 1976*____ (mean) 24.29 _ 1876 _ * 44.64_1880 _ the wettest week ending Feb 29 was 1869 (2.39") _ included 0.1" snow Record values for non-leap year weeks starting Feb 23 and ending March 1 can be seen in the March listings where each entry ending Mar 1 to Mar 6 is divided into leap year and non-leap-year cases.

Anomalies and projections ... _________________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 11th __ (10d anom) _____ -2.0 _ -2.2 _ -3.7 __ -2.2 _ -2.4 _ -3.1 __ +1.9 _ +2.4 _ +1.3 21st __ (20d anom) _____+0.1 _ -0.9 _ -2.2 __ -2.8 _ -2.4 _ -2.1 __ +0.6 _ +0.8 _ -0.1 27th __ (26d anom) ____- 0.1 _ -1.2 _ -1.6 ___ -1.5 _ -1.7 _ -1.4 ___ +1.2 _ -1.9 _ +0.1 11th __ (p20d anom) ___ -0.5 __ 0.0 _ -0.5 __ -2.0 _ -2.0 _ -2.5 __ +2.0 _ +2.5 _ +2.5 11th __ (p27d anom) ___ +0.5 _ +1.0 _ +0.5 __ -1.5 _ -1.5 _ -2.0 __ +2.0 _ +2.5 _ +2.5 21st __ (p31d anom) ___ -0.5 _ -1.5 _ -2.5 ___ -2.5 _ -2.5 _ -2.0 __ +1.0 __ 0.0 _ +0.5 27th __ (p31d anom) ___ -0.5 _ -1.5 _ -2.0 ___ -2.0 _ -1.5 _ -1.5 __ +1.5 _ -1.5 _ +0.5 final anomalies _________ -0.1 _ -1.5 _ -1.7 ___ -1.0 _ -1.0 _ -1.1 ___ +1.6 _ -1.8 _ +0.9 ____________________________________ 11th _ Forecasts for both ten and sixteen days pretty much similar, eastern and most of central U.S. stay in a rather cool shallow trough situation that will maintain slightly below normal temperatures, and the west stays hot, again the biggest anomalies between SEA and DEN (my current temperature near 100F). 14th _ Models have changed their output considerably for the east so I have adjusted the projections for the eastern locations. (turned out by too much as the earlier estimates were closer than the new ones) ... 21st _ Taking the current anomalies forward with little change as the pattern seems fairly static, the western warmth is definitely centered between SEA and DEN and well north of PHX in relative terms, running about +5 here. May post some provisional scores in a while. 27th _ Anomalies updated, PHX dropped quite sharply with two days that had unusual -15 to -20 anomalies due to cloud and thunderstorm activity (highs only in 80s). 31st-1st _ Final anomalies are now posted and BOS is now confirmed after the table had the 31st missing data (for most of Aug 1-2). Scores have not changed there because it was assumed that minimum progression would be needed. Scores are being updated after final anomalies confirmed (this note will be removed when the scoring is all adjusted).

Not done with the heat yet, back up to around 38 C in southern BC today. We had a nice break for about 2-3 days, and last night's low of 15 C was welcome. Temperatures inside non-a/c buildings have returned to fairly comfortable values but now we have a few more days of this reduced brand of heat. By the way I had assumed the Warfield climate station was actually in Warfield, but it appears to be about a mile north in a decommissioned industrial facility formerly associated with the Trail smelter, and located about 0.5 miles west of the highway running north out of Trail, in fairly flat and barren land that is largely exposed rock and dirt. So it's not quite as sheltered as I thought it might be if in the village of Warfield which has a lot of trees around. Thus I would modify previous comments about adding a degree to get Trail BC equivalent readings, this site is probably as barren and exposed as any part of Trail even if slightly higher above sea level. I would call them on this site choice except for the fact that much of the urban area of Trail is similarly rocky and barren so perhaps it is a good choice to be representative. Up the hill here there is a lot more shade from trees that survived the smelter years. It did not feel like that shade was doing us a lot of good back in the severe heat wave however. Another interesting observation -- the Columbia River is running quite high and fast, due to snow melt at high elevations up around the Revelstoke region. It had peaked in late May and early June at fairly moderate levels, as it usually does in these flood-controlled times (Trail used to get some fairly severe flooding in the spring runoff), but now it's at least a foot and probably two feet higher. There is a huge infestation of moths in some parts of the Columbia valley, driving at night exposes you to a mass casualty event that needs extensive car cleaning work the next day. It sounds like driving through a hailstorm.

Longest Dry Spells at NYC These lists rank the longest absolute dry spells (no precip over a trace amount), and extended dry spells (low precip totals that do not exceed .01" for every two consecutive days in the EDS). ____ ABSOLUTE DRY SPELLS ________________ EXTENDED DRY SPELLS _______ Rank _ Year ___ Days ___ Duration __________ Rank _ Year ___ Days, amt ___ Duration (longest ADS) _01 ___ 1924 ___ 36 ___ Oct 9 to Nov 13 _____ 01 ___ 1995 ___ 46 (.18") __ July 29 to Sep 12 (24, 12) _02 ___ 1941 ___ 28 ___ Sep 5 to Oct 2 ______ 02 ___ 1924 ___ 44 (.01") __ Oct 9 to Nov 21 (36) t03 ___ 1884 ___ 27 ___ Sep 1 to 27 __________03 ___ 1952 ___ 43 (.21") __ Oct 3 to Nov 14 (8, 8) t03 ___ 1910 ____27 ___ Sep 10 to Oct 6 _____t04___ 1901 ___ 40 (.20") __ Oct 15 to Nov 23 (16, 11) t05 ___ 1939 ___ 26 ___ Nov 6 to Dec 1 _____ t04___ 1949 ___ 40 (.12") __ May 27 to July 5 (19, 14) t05 ___ 1973 ___ 26 ___ Oct 3 to 28 _________t06 ___ 1874 ___ 38 (.14") __ Oct 11 to Nov 17 (10, 9) t05 ___ 2001 ___ 26 ___ Apr 22 to May 17 ___ t06 ___ 1905 ___ 38 (.19") __ Oct 21 to Nov 27 (12) t08 ___ 1942 ___ 25 ___ Apr 11 to May 5 ____ t06 ___ 1910 ____ 38 (.19") __ Sep 7 to Oct 14 (27) t08 ___ 1968 ___ 25 ___ Feb 4 to 28 ________ t06 ___ 2001 ___ 38 (.17") __ Oct 17 to Nov 23 (17, 15) t 10 ___ 1922 ___ 24 ___ Sep 13 to Oct 6 _____t10 ___ 1882 ___ 34 (.08") __ July 20 to Aug 22 (13) t 10 ___ 1980 ___ 24 ___ Jan 23 to Feb 15 ___ t10 ___ 1899 ___ 34 (.17") __ May 12 to Jun 14 (15) t 10 ___ 1963 ___ 24 ___ Oct 4 to 27 _________t12 ___ 1881 ___ 33 (.10") __ Aug 8 to Sep 9 (11) t 10 ___ 1995 ___ 24 ___ Aug 7 to 30 _________t12 ___ 1943 ___ 33 (.13") __ Nov 23 to Dec 25 (13,19) t 14 ___ 1877 ___ 23 ___ Dec 7 to 29 _________t12 ___ 1999 ___ 33 (.16") __ July 3 to Aug 4 (9) t 14 ___ 1991 ___ 23 ___ Oct 18 to Nov 9 _____t15 ___ 1886 ___ 32 (.13") __ Aug 8 to Sep 8 (14) t_14 ___ 2015 ___ 23 ___ Apr 23 to May 15 ___t15 ___ 1886 ___ 32 (.06") __ Sep 24 to Oct 25 (20) _ 17 ___ 1988 ___ 22 ___ Nov 29 to Dec 20 ___t15 ___ 1947 ___ 32 (.11") __ Sep 27 to Oct 28 (12, 9) t 18 ___ 1870 ___ 21 ___ Aug 27 to Sep 16 ____t15 ___ 1963 ___ 32 (.14") __ Sep 30 to Oct 31 (24) t 18 ___ 1895 ___ 21 ___ Feb 9 to Mar 1 ______ t19 ___ 1903 ___ 31 (.11") __ May 7 to June 6 (12,15) t 18 ___ 1904 ___ 21 ___ Aug 23 to Sep 12 ____t19 ___ 1955 ___ 31 (.12") __ Nov 21 to Dec 21 (14) t 18 ___ 1908 ___ 21 ___ Sep 7 to Sep 27 _____t19 ___ 1966 ___ 31 (.09") __ June 18 to July 18 (11) t 18 ___ 1917 ____21 ___ Oct 31 to Nov 20 ____t19 ___ 1989 ___ 31 (.16") __ Nov 29 to Dec 29 (14, 14) t 18 ___ 1962 ___ 21 ___ June 27 to July 17 __ 23 ___ 1909 ___ 30 (.14") __ Oct 24 to Nov 22 (12) t 24 ___ 1886 ___ 20 ___ Sep 24 to Oct 13 ___t24 ___ 1877-78_29 (.04") __ Dec 6 to Jan 3 (23) t 24 ___ 1944 ___ 20 ___ Aug 23 to Sep 11 ___t24 ___ 1880 ___ 29 (.11") __ May 1 to 29 (17) t 24 ___ 1999 ___ 20 ___ May 25 to June 13 __t24 ___ 1884 ___ 29 (.08") __ Aug 31 to Sep 28 (27) t 27 ___ 1914 ___ 19 ___ Sep 26 to Oct 14 ____t24 ___ 1973 ___ 29 (.03") Sep 30 to Oct 28 (26) t 27 ___ 1917 ___ 19 ___ Sep 9 to 27 __________t24 ___ 1985 ___ 29 (.14") __ Oct 6 to Nov 3 (10) t 27 ___ 1938 ___ 19 ___ Aug 12 to 30 ________t24 ___ 2001 ___ 29 (.07") Apr 22 to May 20 (26) t 27 ___ 1943 ___ 19 ___ Dec 7 to 25 _________t30 ___ 1910 ___ 28 (.11") __ June 19 to July 16 (9) t 27 ___ 1949 ___ 19 ___ May 30 to Jun 17 ___ t30 ___ 1941 ___ 28 (.00") __ Sep 5 to Oct 2 (28) t 27 ___ 1976 ___ 19 ___ Apr 3 to 21 __________t30 ___ 1964 ___ 28 (.11") __ Oct 22 to Nov 18 (14,10) t 27 ___ 1978 ___ 19 ___ Oct 28 to Nov 15 ____t30 ___ 1976 ___ 28 (.02") __ Nov 1 to 28 (9, 18) t 27 ___ 2007 ___ 19 ___ Aug 22 to Sep 9 ____t30 ___ 2003 ___28 (.14") __ Jan 7 to Feb 3 (8) t 35 ___ 1894 ___ 18 ___ Aug 21 to Sep 7 _____t35 ___ 1908 ___ 27 (.09") __ June 17 to July 13 (9,9) t 35 ___ 1903 ___ 18 ___ Apr 16 to May 3 _____t35 ___ 1955 ___ 27 (.05") __ July 11 to Aug 6 (13, 10) t 35 ___ 1976 ___ 18 ___ Nov 11 to 28 ________ t35 ___ 1980 ___ 27 (.08") __ Jan 20 to Feb 15 (24) t 35 ___ 1977 ___ 18 ___ Apr 6 to 23 _________ t35 ___ 2005 ___ 27 (.09") __ July 18 to Aug 13 (11) t 35 ___ 1980 ___ 18 ___ June 11 to 28 _______ t39 ___ 1902 ___ 26 (.09") __ Oct 29 to Nov 22 (14, 9) t 35 ___ 2017 ___ 18 ___ Sep 20 to Oct 7 _____ t39 ___ 1915 ___ 26 (.02") __ Mar 8 to Apr 2 (15, 10) t 41 ___ 1875 ___ 17 ___ Aug 24 to Sep 9 _____ t39 ___ 1916 ___ 26 (.12") __ Aug 12 to Sep 6 (10) t 41 ___ 1880 ___ 17 ___ May 1 to 17 __________t39 ___ 1931 ___ 26 (.08") __ Nov 1 to 26 (13) t 41 ___ 1887 ___ 17 ___ May 8 to 24 _________ t39 ___ 1939 ___ 26 (.00") __ Nov 6 to Dec 1 (26) t 41 ___ 1908 ___ 17 ___ Nov 19 to Dec 5 _____t39 ___ 1950 ___ 26 (.09") __ Sep 14 to Oct 9 (16) t 41 ___ 1939 ___ 17 ___ Oct 4 to 20 _________ t45 ___ 1900 ___ 25 (.06") __ Dec 5 to 29 (16) t 41 ___ 1945 ___ 17 ___ Aug 7 to 23 _________ t45 ___ 1914 ___ 25 (.03") __ Aug 30 to Sep 23 (15) t 41 ___ 1946 ___ 17 ___ Sep 4 to 20 _________ t45 ___ 1942 ___ 25 (.00") __ Apr 11 to May 5 (25) t 41 ___ 1948 ___ 17 ___ Aug 23 to Sep 8 _____ t45 ___ 1981 ___ 25 (.09") __ Jan 8 to Feb 1 (15) t 41 ___ 1945 ___ 17 ___ Aug 7 to 23 __________t45 ___ 2004 ___ 25 (.11") __ Feb 8 to Mar 3 (13) t 41 ___ 1961 ___ 17 ___ Aug 28 to Sep 13 ____ t 45 ___ 2005 ___ 25 (.08") __ Aug 20 to Sep 13 (13) t 41 ___ 1986 ___ 17 ___ Feb 22 to Mar 10 ____ t51 ___ 1869 ___ 24 (.06") __ Oct 24 to Nov 16 (11) t 41 ___ 1999 ___ 17 ___ Nov 3 to 19 __________ t51 ___ 1874 ___ 24 (.02") __ Aug 23 to Sep 15 (12,11) t 41 ___ 2001 ___ 17 ___ Oct 17 to Nov 2 ______ t51 ___ 1904 ___ 24 (.06") __ Aug 21 to Sep 13 (21) t 41 ___ 2010 ___ 17 ___ Aug 26 to Sep 11 _____t51 ___1909 ___ 24 (.06") __ June 29 to July 22 (8) t 55 ___ 1877 ___ 16 ___ Sep 18 to Oct 3 ______t51 ___ 1922 ___ 24 (.00") __ Sep 13 to Oct 6 (24) t 55 ___ 1881 ___ 16 ___ July 14 to 29 _________t51 ___ 1959 ___ 24 (.04") __ Sep 4 to 27 (16) t 55 ___ 1895 ___ 16 ___ June 7 to 22 _________t51 ___ 1968 ___ 24 (.07") __ Sep 12 to Oct 5 (12) t 55 ___ 1900 ___ 16 ___ Dec 12 to 27 _________t51 ___ 1972 ___ 24 (.12") __ July 22 to Aug 14 (11) t 55 ___ 1901 ___ 16 ___ Oct 20 to Nov 4 ______t51 ___ 2013 ___ 24 (.11") __ Oct 8 to 31 (11) t 55 ___ 1902 ___ 16 ___ Apr 10 to 25 _________ t51___ 2015 ___ 24 (.05") __ Apr 22 to May 15 (23) t 55 ___ 1923 ___ 16 ___ Sep 24 to Oct 9 _____ t61 ___ 1872 ___ 23 (.10") __ Feb 15 to Mar 8 (10) t 55 ___ 1950 ___ 16 ___ Sep 23 to Oct 8 _____ t61 ___ 1885 ___ 23 (.07") __ Sep 10 to Oct 2 (12) t 55 ___ 1959 ___ 16 ___ Sep 12 to 27 ________ t61 ___ 1894 ___ 23 (.08") __ Aug 16 to Sep 7 (18) t 55 ___ 1964 ___ 16 ___ May 16 to 31 ________ t61 ___ 1896 ___ 23 (.11") __ Jan 1 to 23 (9) t 55 ___ 1967 ___ 16 ___ May 30 to June 14 ___t61 ___ 1964 ___ 23 (.09") __ Aug 19 to Sep 10 (12) t 55 ___ 1970 ___ 16 ___ Feb 16 to Mar 3 ______t61 ___ 1991 ___ 23 (.00") __ Oct 18 to Nov 9 (23) t 55 ___ 1987 ___ 16 ___ Aug 11 to 26 _________t61 ___ 1999 ___ 23 (.08") May 25 to June 16 (20) t 55 ___ 1988 ___ 16 ___ Aug 1 to 16 __________t68 ___ 1870 ___ 22 (.03") __ Aug 26 to Sep 16 (21) t 55 ___ 2020 ___ 16 ___ Sep 11 to 26 ________ t68 ___ 1899 ___ 22 (.10") __ Nov 20 to Dec 11 (11) t 70 ___ 1876 ___ 15 ___ June 25 to July 9 ____ t68 ___ 1917 ___ 22 (.01") __ Oct 31 to Nov 21 (21) t 70 ___ 1876 ___ 15 ___ Aug 18 to Sep 1 ______t68 ___ 1968 __ 22 (.08") Apr 2 to 23 (13) t 70 ___ 1886 ___ 15 ___ June 25 to July 9 ____t68 ___ 1973 ___ 22 (.11") __ Nov 2 to 23 (14) t 70 ___ 1895 ___ 15 ___ Oct 16 to 30 _________t68 ___ 1981 ___ 22 (.11") Aug 17 to Sep 7 (14) t 70 ___ 1899 ___ 15 ___ Apr 18 to May 1 ______t68 ___ 1988 ___ 22 (.00") __ Nov 29 to Dec 20 (22) t 70 ___ 1899 ___ 15 ___ May 30 to June 13 ___ t68 ___ 1999 ___ 22 (.10") __ Nov 3 to 24 (17) t 70 ___ 1903 ___ 15 ___ May 23 to June 6 ____t76 ___ 1877 ___ 21 (.06") __ Feb 3 to 23 (15) t 70 ___ 1908 ___ 15 ___ May 31 to June 14 ____t76 ___ 1895 ___ 21 (.00") __ Feb 9 to Mar 1 (21) t 70 ___ 1908 ___ 15 ___ Oct 11 to 25 __________t76 ___ 1904 ___ 21 (.05") __ Nov 14 to Dec 4 (12) t 70 ___ 1909 ___ 15 ___ Aug 21 to Sep 4 ______t76 ___ 1908 ___ 21 (.00") __ Sept 7 to 27 (21) t 70 ___ 1912 ___ 15 ___ June 26 to July 10 ____t76 ___ 1908 ___ 21 (.10") __ Nov 16 to Dec 6 (17) t 70 ___ 1913 ___ 15 ___ May 1 to 15 ___________t76 ___ 1923 ___ 21 (.04") __ Sep 24 to Oct 14 (16) t 70 ___ 1914 ___ 15 ___ Sep 9 to 23 ___________t76 ___ 1935 ___ 21 (.05") __ May 8 to 28 (14) t 70 ___ 1915 ___ 15 ___ Mar 8 to 22 ___________t76 ___ 1940 ___ 21 (.09") __ Oct 9 to 29 (13) t 70 ___ 1925 ___ 15 ___ Aug 22 to Sep 5 ______t76 ___ 1962 ___ 21 (.00") __ June 27 to July 17 (21) t 70 ___ 1930 ___ 15 ___ July 30 to Aug 13 _____t76 ___ 2000 ___ 21 (.01") __ Oct 19 to Nov 8 (10, 10) t 70 ___ 1932 ___ 15 ___ July 5 to 19 ___________t76 ___ 2006 ___ 21 (.05") __ Mar 13 to Apr 2 (11) t 70 ___ 1953 ___ 15 ___ Aug 18 to Sep 1 _______t76 ___ 2010 ___ 21 (.11") __ May 19 to June 8 (9) t 70 ___ 1964 ___ 15 ___ June 22 to July 7 _____ t76 ___ 2012 ___ 21 (.10") __ Mar 4 to 24 (7) t 70 ___ 1968 ___ 15 ___ July 4 to 18 ___________ t89 ___ 1879 ___ 20 (.02") __ Sep 29 to Oct 18 (13) t 70 ___ 1974 ___ 15 ___ Sep 30 to Oct 14 ______ t89 ___ 1886 ___ 20 (.07") __ Feb 27 to Mar 18 (13) t 70 ___ 1978 ___ 15 ___ Aug 13 to 27 __________ t89 ___ 1887 ___ 20 (.01") __ May 8 to 27 (17) t 70 ___ 1979 ___ 15 ___ Oct 13 to 27 ___________t89 ___ 1892 ___ 20 (.05") __ Sep 15 to Oct 4 (12) t 70 ___ 1980 ___ 15 ___ Aug 16 to 30 __________ t89 ___ 1897 ___ 20 (.02") __ Sep 3 to 22 (10) t 70 ___ 1981 ___ 15 ___ Jan 17 to 31 ___________ t89 ___ 1901 ___ 20 (.10") __ Feb 10 to Mar 1 (8) t 70 ___ 2001 ___ 15 ___ Nov 5 to 19 ____________t89 ___ 1910 ___ 20 (.09") __ Nov 5 to 24 (7) t 70 ___ 2015 ___ 15 ___ Sep 14 to 28 ___________t89 ___ 1914 ___ 20 (.06") __ Sep 26 to Oct 15 (19) t 70 ___ 2020 ___ 15 ___ June 12 to 26 _________ t89 ___ 1944 ___ 20 (.00") __ Aug 23 to Sep 11 (20) t 98 ___ all at 14 days _________________________ t89 ___ 1963 ___ 20 (.10") __ Mar 27 to Apr 15 (7) _______________________________________________ t89 ___ 1968 ___ 20 (.04") __ June 29 to July 18 (15) _______________________________________________ t89 ___ 1971 ___ 20 (.09") __ Apr 8 to 27 (13) _______________________________________________ t89 ___ 1976 ___ 20 (.03") __ Apr 2 to 21 (19) _______________________________________________ t89 ___ 1978 ___ 20 (.05") __ Oct 28 to Nov 16 (19) _______________________________________________ t89 ___1985-86_ 20 (.07") __ Dec 14 to Jan 2 (6) _______________________________________________ t89 ___ 1986 ___ 20 (.08") __ Mar 16 to Apr 4 (7, 7) _______________________________________________ t89 ___ 2010 ___ 20 (.03") __ June 23 to July 12 (10) _______________________________________________ t89 ___ 2020 ___ 20 (.05") __ June 7 to 26 (15) __________________________________________________________________ Most of the EDS entries, if not extensions of the first list of absolute dry spells, contain 9-15 day ADS intervals, and a few entries such as the last one add no days at either end of a long ADS, so the EDS is the original ADS. A few EDS have two ADS in their duration, for example 24d EDS in 1874 had 12d and 11d ADS separated by .02" 21 days from Oct 19 to Nov 8 2000 had only .01" (on Oct 29, dividing this into two ten-day dry spells). Two long dry spells in Sep-Oct 1914 were separated by only .28" in two days, and narrowly missed combining for an eligible 49-day EDS. The average year has 6.4 EDS which include 3.6 ADS. The average EDS is 15 days long. Those associated with an ADS are on average about 14 days long. As the amount of precipitation varies from nil to .10" per 20 days, the total precipitation in all these dry spells is probably around 50" (two fairly dry years, but the total length of these dry spells is about 40 years). The average year has 88.7 days within the various dry spells, the range is 18 (2014) to 159 (1909). 1945 and 2014 had the fewest days in qualifying dry years, however, they were not overly wet years, their cycle of wet and dry seemed to be closer to 7-8 days. Considering how much rain fell in 1983, the year managed an almost average output of dry spells, mainly in February and the late autumn. This is a frequency distribution of the months involved in the 97 longest absolute dry spells (15 or more days), frequency assigned by nearest 0.1 portions when the dry spell overlaps two months. JAN _ FEB _ MAR _ APR _ MAY _ JUN _ JUL _ AUG _ SEP _ OCT _ NOV _ DEC 1.3 ___ 3.8 __ 1.9 ___ 6.3 __ 7.0 __ 9.3 __ 6.5 ___15.9 __19.2 __ 13.9 __ 7.8 __ 4.1 This frequency distribution shows that late summer into autumn is favored for long dry spells, winter and early spring least favored, with a slight secondary peak around late May through June. About half of the dry spell frequency is in the period August to October. The following is a graph of the number of days each year (1869-2020) within qualifying dry spells. There are peaks around the 1880s, 1900s, 1960s and (early) 1980s. Peak years from graph: _______ 1885 ____ 1909 ____________ 1965 __ 1980 __ (2010)