Roger Smith

Thanks, very interesting. I have looked at old newspapers on line a few times before, but I found some different features in this one. A lot of advertising was composed of large letters made up of smaller letters, like a huge E that was made up of two rows or columns of small Es. That seemed to be a short-lived fad that I didn't find in 1895 (went ahead to see how they reported on the May-June 1895 heat wave, it was quite extensively covererd). Naturally I went back in the files to the March 1888 blizzard. This was also fascinating. The storm hit on the night of March 11-12, which was a Sunday night. Now this paper as you probably noticed was usually four pages of eight columns of type, but on Sundays it extended to sixteen pages of four columns. Anyway, on the Saturday March 10th they had a weather forecast (from Washington via telegraph) saying that Sunday would see increasing cloud and a rain-snow mix by evening. That was correct. The Sunday paper repeated that as the forecast which seemed odd to me (later on I figured out why, the storm had hit already to the southwest and destroyed the telegraph line so there was no new forecast). The Monday edition (this paper appeared after 3 p.m. because they had hourly temperatures in their little weather section that ended at 3 p.m.) had extensive coverage of the blizzard. In those days they called them "western blizzards" because they were more typical of the "west" which began in Ohio and extended into the plains states (the Midwest to us now). What we now call the west was on another planet I think. Anyway, the coverage on the 12th spoke extensively about stalled trains, stranded trains, people gone missing between morning and lunch time, etc etc, and two feet of snow with drifts "to the second storey of houses" on side streets. A few trees had come down and winds estimated as high as 60 mph. A row of houses had all lost their roofs during the storm. (it makes me suspect our historical weather map recreations of the 1888 blizzard might be a bit underdone). They also mentioned a stronger wind on Feb 27, 1886 with a much less productive snowstorm (a few inches, that wind was apparently NNW in direction because it helpfully blew straight down the length of the Brooklyn Bridge and damage to it was avoided). Back in 1888, the news was all on page three into parts of page four of this paper, most of first two pages and part of page four was advertising, classified ads and minor news or gossip. The main news was all on page three or the back page. And news varied from the death of the German emperor and reports from city hall, Albany and Washington, to a disclaimer from some dude who had met "Miss Harrison" in Dayton Ohio but it wasn't planned and there was no affair. (the paragraph didn't mention why this information appeared or who the dude was other than his name which I suppose meant he was prominent enough to attract speculation, probably a politician or a minister perhaps) ... Also Mrs Jones had taken Mr Jones to court, he wasn't giving her enough money for shopping and made her do the boarders' laundry, and he threw a pail of hot ashes at her, but the judge said there was still hope of reconciliation and advised them to settle their differences. The next several days of news coverage were mostly about the recovery from the blizzard which was about three or four days, they fixed the telephone and telegraph lines within two or three days, they got the snow off the train tracks but out on Long Island some trains were still stranded in three feet of level snow and bigger drifts. Food was running scarce because it all used to come into the city on trains. A slow melt started around the 15th and I got the impression the sun was clearing the snow faster than the armies of men sent out to clear the business streets and the train stations etc. They stopped talking about it by about the 17th, and their weather section resumed a forecast eventually when the connection was restored. I don't know if there would have been an accurate forecast on the Sunday for the overnight storm and Monday's outcome or not, but I noticed there was an accurate forecast of a cold wave approaching later in that month. By 1895 they had figured out that news should be on page one. The coverage of the heat wave was fairly extensive, people were passing out on the streets from heat prostration and a police parade had to be cut short. By then, there was a New York City weather bureau and a guy you could go and interview about the weather, and he gave this paper a forecast with a lot of accurate details for the days ahead (on May 31st, which by the publication time had turned out to be hotter than the previous record from 1880 at 95 F) including a thunderstorm on the evening of June 1st and a slight cooldown followed by more heat. He had nothing to go by except weather reports from the rest of the continent, and probably a very sparse network west of the plains states too. He did mention to the reporter that the only cold place in America was Cheyenne WY at that time (it was 32 degrees there). I think I will dive back in and see what they have to say in the February 1899 snowstorm and cold wave. And wondering how the Jones couple made out with their reconciliation.

This recent tropical event followed a similar path from LA to NY as the 1888 storm that lost its record to Henri's sideswipe rainstorm on Aug 21. That 1888 system dropped 4.31" at NYC. I wonder if there was a severe storm component with it, as it looks a bit more intense on historical weather maps. Track was very similar.

Four Seasons contest updated standings FORECASTER ____ SCORE WINTER 20-21 ___ PTS __ SPRING 21 _ PTS __ SUMMER 21 _PTS __TOTAL DonSutherland1 _____ 730 + 1163 = 1893 _____ 10 _______1806 _____ 6 ______ 1672 ____ 4 ____ 20 wxallannj _____________668 + 1006 = 1674 ______3 _______ 1780 _____ 5 _______1812 ____10 ____ 18 Tom _________________ 668 + 1033 = 1701 ______ 4 _______ 1841 ____ 10 ______ 1625 ____ 1 ____ 15 BKViking _____________ 668 + 1094 = 1762 ______5 _______ 1768 _____4 _______ 1734 ____ 6 ____ 15 RodneyS _____________ 616 + 1229 = 1845 ______ 7 _______ 1528 _____1 _______ 1804 ____ 7 ____ 15 wxdude64 ___________ 500 + 1075 = 1575 ______ 1 ________ 1835 _____7________1676 ____ 5 ____ 13 ___ Consensus _______ 689 + 1088 = 1777 _____ 6 _______ 1774 _____ 4 _______ 1670 ____ 3 ____ 13 hudsonvalley21 ______ 716 + 1047 = 1763 ______ 6 _______ 1760 _____3 _______ 1658 ____ 3 ____ 12 ___ Normal ___________ 524 + 950 = 1474 ________1 ________1638 ______1 _______1698 ____ 5 ____ 7 Roger Smith __________580 + 959 = 1539 ________ 1 _______ 1300 ______1 _______1650 ____ 2 ____ 4 Scotty Lightning _____ 586 + 1020 = 1606 _______2 _______ 1684 _____ 1 _______1599 ____ 1 ____ 4 so_whats_happening _ dnp + 928 = 928__(2/3)__ 1 _______ 1733 _____ 2 _______1593 ____ 1 ____ 4 RJay _________________ 686 + 864 = 1550 ________ 1 _______ 1634 _____ 1 _______1555 ____ 1 ____ 3 Deformation Zone ____ (not entered) __________________________________________1052 (2/3) 1 ____ 1 ___________________________________________________________ Winter scores are total of Dec 2020 and (Jan+Feb) 2021. Points _ 10 for high score, 7 for second, 6 for third, etc, and 1 point for all who enter at least 2/3. This still looks like a wide open contest at the moment with one season left. (scores and points for consensus and Normal do not alter progressions of scores for forecasters). ______________________________________________________________ Worth noting that your host finished first in two of three summer contests and last in the other one.

Table of forecasts for September 2021 FORECASTER ___________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ DEN _PHX _SEA ___ bias so_whats_happening ____+1.0 _+1.1 _+1.3 ___ 0.0 _+0.8 _+1.0 ___ +0.8 _+1.2 _+1.7 ___ +0.41 Scotty Lightning _________+1.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 __ +0.5 _+1.5 _+1.5 ___ +1.0 _+1.5 _+1.0 ___ +0.53 RJay _____________________+1.0 _+0.5 _+1.0 __ +0.5 __0.0_+1.0 ___ +1.5 _+0.5 _+1.0 ___ +0.20 BKViking ________________+0.6 _+0.9 _+0.8 __+0.3 _+0.3 _+0.3 ___+1.2 _+0.2 _+0.8 ___ +0.02 hudsonvalley21 _________ +0.5 _+0.7 _+0.3 __ +0.3 _+1.7 _+0.5 ___+1.0 _+0.4 _+0.1 ___ +0.03 DonSutherland1 __________+0.4 _+0.5 _+0.5 __+0.8 __0.0 _-0.4 ___+0.3 _-0.3 _+1.0 ___ -0.27 ___ Consensus ___________+0.3 _+0.5 _+0.4 __+0.3 _+0.2 _+0.6 __ +1.0 _+1.0 _+0.9 Tom ______________________+0.2 _+0.5 _+0.4 __+0.4 _+0.9 _+0.3__ +0.5 _+0.9 _+0.8 ___ -0.03 ___ Normal ________________ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 ____ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 ____ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 ____ -0.58 wxallannj _________________ 0.0 _-0.3 _-0.4 __ -1.5 _+1.0 _+1.5 ___ +2.2 _+2.5 _+0.4 ___ +0.02 Roger Smith _____________ -0.7 _-0.8 _-1.0 __ -0.5 _-1.0 _-1.0 ______ 0.0 _+1.0 _-0.3 ___ -1.06 RodneyS _________________-1.0 _-0.1 _+1.3 __ +0.6 _+0.1 _+0.6 ___ +1.3 _-0.9 _+0.6 ___ -0.30 Deformation Zone _______-1.2 _-2.0 _-2.5 __ -1.6 __ 0.0 _+1.0 _____+2.5 _+2.0 _+2.5___ -0.50 wxdude64 _______________-1.4 _-1.3 _+0.2 __ -1.1 _-0.6 _-0.8 _____ -0.2 _+1.1 _+2.2 ___ -0.76 ________________________________________________________ Color codes show warmest and coldest forecasts. Bias is your average departure from consensus. This may obscure different tendencies where a forecaster has chosen a warm west, cool east model since there are more locations east than west.

I have now updated the table a few posts above to reflect the arrival of Larry, and the table assumes Larry will become a major, which can be edited if this is not the case by the weekend. Based on the fact that September 7 is the statistical midpoint of the hurricane season, the eventual count would be 24/10/6 if the second half resembled the first half, and would be closer to 24/12/7 if the second half was equal in storm production but more potent in development. Quite a few forecasts remain very viable at this point and it's almost anybody's race to win at this point.

<<<< ============ - - - - Annual Scoring for 2021 (Jan-Aug) - - - - ============ >>>> High scores for nine locations shown in red, high scores for regions in bold. New feature _ change in rank is shown after forecaster name. No entry there means same position as last month. Normal and Consensus both dropped one position as one forecaster passed each of them. Other changes shown do not include forecasters moving past consensus or normal. Only two points separate second and third and both have moved to within about 40 points of the lead still held by Don Sutherland so it would appear that we have quite a close race entering the last third of the contest year. FORECASTER _________________DCA_NYC_BOS__east_ ORD_ATL_IAH__cent __c/e ___DEN_PHX_SEA__west___TOTALS DonSutherland1 ______________ 564 _592 _412 _ 1568 __481 _610 _536 _1627__3195 __376 _534 _536 _ 1446___ 4641 wxallannj (up 3) ______________ 528 _580 _427 _ 1535 __388 _520 _554 _ 1462 __2997 __526 _511 _564 _ 1601___ 4598 BKViking (down 1) ____________557 _609 _439 _ 1605 __392 _581 _529 _ 1502__3107 __437 _ 501 _551 _ 1489___ 4596 wxdude64 ____________________ 613 _585 _453 _ 1651 __383 _536 _499 _ 1418__3069 __499 _491 _527 _ 1517___ 4586 RodneyS (down 2) ____________ 550 _576 _400 _ 1526 __401 _596 _482 _ 1479 __3005 __448 _552 _556 _1556___ 4561 ___ Consensus (down 1) ______ 588 _612 _422 _ 1622 __384 _548 _520 _ 1452 __3074 __436 _488 _534 _ 1458___ 4532 Tom ___________________________570 _619 _462 _ 1651__330 _485 _556 _ 1371 __3022 __490 _495 _492 _ 1477 ___ 4499 hudsonvalley21 _______________ 560 _580 _451 _ 1591 __361 _590 _490 _ 1441 __3032 __390 _471 _572 _ 1433___ 4465 Scotty Lightning (up 1) ________564 _564 _379 _ 1507 __306 _514 _488 _ 1308 __2815 __456 _472 _560 _ 1488___ 4303 ___ Normal (down 1) __________ 568 _520 _326 _ 1414 __268 _560 _550 _ 1378 __2792 __466 _496 _532 _ 1494___ 4286 so_whats_happening (down 1)_601 _ 563 _306 _ 1470 __400 _598 _443 _ 1441 __2911 __362 _482 _499 _ 1343___ 4254 RJay __________________________ 500 _532 _434 _ 1466 __390 _506 _478 _ 1374 __ 2840 __396 _387 _430 _ 1213___ 4053 Roger Smith ___________________514 _440 _225 _ 1179 __ 397 _438 _542 _ 1377 __ 2556 __396 _445 _512 _ 1353___ 3909 Deformation Zone _ (2/8) ______138 _ 112 __70 __ 320 __ 84 __126 __142 __ 352____672 __ 122 _ 120 _ 138 __380____1052 Best scores for the locations and regions FORECASTER _______________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ east __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ cent __ c/e ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA __ west ___ Totals DonSutherland1 ______________ 2 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 2 ______ 2 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 3 ____ 3 _____ 0 ____ 3 ____ 1 _____ 0 _____ 1 __ Jan wxallannj _____________________ 0 ____ 2 ____ 1 _____ 0 ______ 1 ____ 1 ____ 2 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 3 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 3 _____ 0 __ BKViking _____________________ 0 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 1 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 3 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 2 _____ 0 _____ 1 __ Apr wxdude64 ____________________ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 1 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____0 _____ 2 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 2 _____ 1 __ Mar (t) RodneyS _____________________ 2 ____ 2 ____ 1 _____ 1 ______ 1 ____ 2 ____ 0 ____ 2 ____ 1 _____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 1 _____ 2 __ Feb, Jul ___ Consensus _______________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 ____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 _____ 0 _____ 0 __ Tom __________________________ 1 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 1 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 1 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 _____ 1 _____ 1 __ May hudsonvalley21 _______________ 0 ____ 0 ____0 _____ 1 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____0 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 3 _____ 0 _____ 0 __ Scotty Lightning ______________ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 1 ____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 _____ 0 _____ 0 __ ___ Normal ___________________ 2 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 1 ______ 1 _____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 1 ____ 2 ____ 1 _____ 1 _____ 1 __ May, Jul so_whats_happening _________ 2 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 1 ____ 2 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 _____ 1 __ Mar (t) RJay _________________________ 0 ____ 1 _____ 4 _____ 1 ______ 1 ____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 1 _____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 __ Roger Smith __________________ 1 ____ 0 ____ 1 _____ 1 ______ 2 ____ 1 ____ 2 ____ 2 ____ 1 _____ 2 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 1 _____ 1 __Jun, Aug Deformation Zone ____________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____0 _____ 0 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- EXTREME FORECAST STANDINGS High score must go to either the extreme warm or cold forecast, or second most extreme, for a station to qualify. So far this year, 53 locations out of 72 have qualified, 4 in Jan, 5 in Feb, 7 in March, 6 in April, 8 in May, June and July, and 7 in August. Of those, 27 were awarded to warmest forecasts, 26 to coldest. A loss in the standings represents a case where second most extreme forecast had the high score and the win for that month. Normal can only win along with a forecaster. There have been six shared wins (one by three) accounting for the 53 total wins (excl Normal). FORECASTER _________ Jan __ Feb __ Mar _ Apr _ May _ Jun _ Jul _ Aug ____ TOTAL to date Roger Smith ___________ 2-1 __ 2-0 __ --- __ 1-0 __ 1-0 __ 2-0 __ --- _ 3-1 __ 11-2 RodneyS ______________ ---- __ --- __ ---- __ --- __ 2-1 __ 1-0 __ 6-0 _ --- __ 9-1 wxallannj ______________ ---- __ --- __ --- __ 3-0 __ 2-0 __ 3-0 __ --- _ 1-0 __ 9-0 ___ Normal _____________--- __ --- __ 2-0 __ ---- __ 1-0 __ --- __ 5-0 _ 1-0 __ 9-0 DonSutherland1 _______ 2-0 __ 1-0 __ 2-0 __ 0-1 __ 2-0 __ 1-0 __ --- _ --- __ 8-1 RJay ___________________ --- __ --- __ 2-0 __ 2-0 __ 1-0 __ 1-0 __ --- _ 1-0 __ 7-0 so_whats_happening ___--- __ 1-0 __ 2-0 __ --- __ --- __ 1-0 __ ---- _ --- __ 4-0 wxdude64 _____________ --- __ 1-0 __ 2-0 __ --- __ --- __ --- __ ---- _ 1-0 __ 4-0 Tom ____________________---- __ --- __ --- __ --- __ 1-0 __ 1-0 __ ---- _ --- __ 2-0 Deformation Zone _____ ---- __ --- __ --- __ --- __ --- __ ---- __ 1-0 _ 1-0 __ 2-0 BKViking _______________ ---- __ --- __ --- __ --- __ 1-0 __ 1-0 __ 0-1 _ --- __ 2-1 Scotty Lightning _______ ---- __ --- __ ---- __ --- __ --- __ 1-1 __ 1-0 _ --- __ 2-1 __________________________________ A few days from now I will post the summer update for the four seasons sub-contest.

-0.7 _ -0.8 _ -1.0 _ -0.5 _ -1.0 _ -1.0 __ 0.0 _ +1.0 _ -0.3

CONTINUED REPORT ON WEEKLY EXTREMES for WEEKS ENDING IN SEPTEMBER Intervals _______________ Highest values 1869-2021 __ Lowest values 1869-2021 Aug 26 - Sep 1 __________ (max) 96.71 _ 1953 ____ (max) 68.57 _ 1903 Aug 26 - Sep 1 ___________ (min) 74.43 _ 1973 ______ (min) 55.71 _ 1887 Aug 26 - Sep 1 __________ (mean) 85.50 _ 1953 ____ (mean) 63.71 _ 1887 _ the wettest week ending Sep 1 was 2011 (6.87") __ this record has been broken and is now 2021 (7.80"). Aug 27 - Sep 2 __________ (max) 98.29 _ 1953 ____ (max) 68.86 _ 1903 Aug 27 - Sep 2 ___________ (min) 75.43 _ 1953^______ (min) 56.14 _ 1912 _^ 75.14_1973 Aug 27 - Sep 2 __________ (mean) 86.86 _ 1953 ____ (mean) 63.14 _ 1912 _ the wettest week ending Sep 2 was 2011 (6.87") __ this record has been broken and is now 2021 (7.90") Aug 28 - Sep 3 __________ (max) 98.29 _ 1953^____ (max) 68.71 _ 1912 _^ 1973_95.71 Aug 28 - Sep 3 ___________ (min) 76.00 _ 1953 ______ (min) 55.29 _ 1965 Aug 28 - Sep 3 __________ (mean) 87.14 _ 1953 ____ (mean) 62.64 _ 1912 _ the wettest week ending Sep 3 was 1974 (5.32") __ this record has been broken as is now 2021 (7.23") Aug 29 - Sep 4 __________ (max) 97.14 _ 1953 ____ (max) 69.43 _ 1869 Aug 29 - Sep 4 ___________ (min) 76.43 _ 1953 ______ (min) 55.00 _ 1872 Aug 29 - Sep 4 __________ (mean) 86.79 _ 1953 ____ (mean) 63.00 _ 1872 _ the wettest week ending Sep 4 was 1969 (6.39") _ this record has been broken and is now 2021 (7.23") Aug 30 - Sep 5 __________ (max) 95.29 _ 1953 ____ (max) 69.43 _ 1869 Aug 30 - Sep 5 ___________ (min) 76.57 _ 1898 ______ (min) 54.57 _ 1872 Aug 30 - Sep 5 __________ (mean) 85.43 _ 1953 ____ (mean) 62.50 _ 1872 _ the wettest week ending Sep 5 was 1969 (6.39") _ this record has been broken and is now 2021 (7.25") Aug 31 - Sep 6 __________ (max) 93.29*_ 1953 ____ (max) 70.14 _ 1869 _* 91.43_1898 Aug 31 - Sep 6 ___________ (min) 76.71 _ 1898 ______ (min) 54.43 _ 1883 Aug 31 - Sep 6 __________ (mean) 84.07 _ 1898 ____ (mean) 63.21 _ 1872 _ the wettest week ending Sep 6 was 1969 (6.50") __ this record has been broken and is now 2021 (7.25") Sep 1 - Sep 7 __________ (max) 91.00 _ 1898 ____ (max) 70.29 _ 1885 Sep 1 - Sep 7 ___________ (min) 75.00 _ 1898 ______ (min) 53.43 _ 1883 Sep 1 - Sep 7 __________ (mean) 83.00 _ 1898 ____ (mean) 62.64 _ 1885 _ the wettest week ending Sep 7 was 1969 (6.50") _ this record has been broken and is now 2021 (7.25") Sep 2 - Sep 8 __________ (max) 89.71 _ 2015 ____ (max) 69.29 _ 1885 Sep 2 - Sep 8 ___________ (min) 72.71 _ 1898 ______ (min) 53.00 _ 1883 Sep 2 - Sep 8 __________ (mean) 80.57 _ 1985 ____ (mean) 61.86 _ 1885 _ the wettest week ending Sep 8 was 1969 (6.62") Sep 3 - Sep 9 __________ (max) 89.86 _ 2023* ____ (max) 68.86 _ 1883 _ * 2015 _ 89.57 Sep 3 - Sep 9 ___________ (min) 73.29 _ 1985 ______ (min) 51.14 __ 1883 Sep 3 - Sep 9 __________ (mean) 81.36 _ 2023* ____(mean) 60.00 _1883 _ * _ 1884 _ 80.79 _ the wettest week ending Sep 9 was 1969 (6.51") Sep 4 - Sep 10 _________ (max) 90.43 _ 1983 ____ (max) 68.14 _ 1883 _^ 1884_89.57 Sep 4 - Sep 10 __________ (min) 74.29 _ 1884 ______ (min) 49.71 _ 1883 _ 2023_73.00 Sep 4 - Sep 10 _________ (mean) 81.93 _ 1884 ____ (mean) 58.93 _ 1883 _ the wettest week ending Sep 10 was 1934 (5.90") Sep 5 - Sep 11 _________ (max) 92.14^_ 1983 ____ (max) 67.43 _ 1883 _^ 1884_89.57 Sep 5 - Sep 11 __________ (min) 75.14 _ 1884 ______ (min) 50.00 _ 1883 Sep 5 - Sep 11 _________ (mean) 82.36 _ 1884^____ (mean) 58.71 _ 1883 _^ 1983_82.07 _ the wettest week ending Sep 11 was 1934 (5.60") Sep 6 - Sep 12 _________ (max) 91.29 _ 1983 ____ (max) 66.29 _ 1883 Sep 6 - Sep 12 __________ (min) 73.71 _ 1884 ______ (min) 50.00 _ 1883 Sep 6 - Sep 12 _________ (mean) 81.21 _ 1983 ____ (mean) 58.14 _ 1883 _ the wettest week ending Sep 12 was 1934 (5.60") Sep 7 - Sep 13 _________ (max) 88.43 _ 1931 ____ (max) 65.86 _ 1883 Sep 7 - Sep 13 __________ (min) 71.43 _ 1971 ______ (min) 50.00 _ 1917 Sep 7 - Sep 13 _________ (mean) 78.43 _ 1961_83 ____ (mean) 58.71 _ 1883 _ the wettest week ending Sep 13 was 1944 (5.58") Sep 8 - Sep 14 _________ (max) 90.57 _ 1931 ____ (max) 66.29 _ 1883 Sep 8 - Sep 14 __________ (min) 71.43 _ 1947 ______ (min) 50.14 _ 1917 Sep 8 - Sep 14 _________ (mean) 79.64 _ 1931 ____ (mean) 59.21 _ 1914 _ the wettest week ending Sep 14 was 1944 (9.40") Sep 9 - Sep 15 _________ (max) 91.00 _ 1931 ____ (max) 67.29 _ 1883 Sep 9 - Sep 15 __________ (min) 71.71 _ 1947 ______ (min) 50.86 _ 1914_1917 Sep 9 - Sep 15 _________ (mean) 80.93 _ 1931 ____ (mean) 59.43 _ 1913 _ the wettest week ending Sep 15 was 1944 (9.40") _ (also 7.65" in 1933) Sep 10 - Sep 16 _________ (max) 89.43 _ 1931 ____ (max) 67.43 _ 1913 Sep 10 - Sep 16 __________ (min) 71.00 _ 1947 ______ (min) 50.43 _ 1913 Sep 10 - Sep 16 _________ (mean) 80.14 _ 1931 ____ (mean) 58.93 _ 1913 _ the wettest week ending Sep 16 was 1944 (9.40") Sep 11 - Sep 17 _________ (max) 88.00 _ 1915 ____ (max) 67.29 _ 1871 Sep 11 - Sep 17 __________ (min) 70.86 _ 1915 ______ (min) 51.43 _ 1913 Sep 11 - Sep 17 _________ (mean) 79.43 _ 1931 ____ (mean) 59.86 _ 1913 _ the wettest week ending Sep 17 was 1944 (9.40") Sep 12 - Sep 18 _________ (max) 86.71 _ 1915 ____ (max) 66.14 _ 1871 Sep 12 - Sep 18 __________ (min) 70.57 _ 1915 ______ (min) 52.57 _ 1923_1975 Sep 12 - Sep 18 _________ (mean) 78.64 _ 1915 ____ (mean) 60.21 _ 1871 _ the wettest week ending Sep 18 was 1944 (9.40") Sep 13 - Sep 19 _________ (max) 85.57 _ 1915 ____ (max) 65.71 _ 1871 Sep 13 - Sep 19 __________ (min) 70.14 _ 2005 ______ (min) 52.00 _ 1959 Sep 13 - Sep 19 _________ (mean) 77.79 _ 1915 ____ (mean) 59.36 _ 1871 _ the wettest week ending Sep 19 was 1944 (7.85") Sep 14 - Sep 20 _________ (max) 84.71 _ 1915 ____ (max) 65.00 _ 1871 Sep 14 - Sep 20 __________ (min) 70.29 _ 2005 ______ (min) 50.57 _ 1871 Sep 14 - Sep 20 _________ (mean) 76.93 _ 2005 ____ (mean) 57.79 _ 1871 _ the wettest week ending Sep 20 was 1874 (7.57") Sep 15 - Sep 21 _________ (max) 83.57 _ 2005 ____ (max) 63.29 _ 1875 Sep 15 - Sep 21 __________ (min) 69.57 _ 2005 ______ (min) 48.86 _ 1871 Sep 15 - Sep 21 _________ (mean) 76.57 _ 2005 ____ (mean) 56.50 _ 1871 _ the wettest week ending Sep 21 was 1938 (8.42") Sep 16 - Sep 22 _________ (max) 86.29 _ 1914 ____ (max) 60.71 _ 1875 Sep 16 - Sep 22 __________ (min) 69.00 _ 2017 ______ (min) 47.43 _ 1871 Sep 16 - Sep 22 _________ (mean) 76.07 _ 2005 ____ (mean) 54.71 _ 1875 _ the wettest week ending Sep 22 was 1938 (8.13") Sep 17 - Sep 23 _________ (max) 88.29 _ 1895^____ (max) 59.57 _ 1875 _^ 1914_87.86 Sep 17 - Sep 23 __________ (min) 70.00 _ 1895 ______ (min) 46.00 _ 1875 Sep 17 - Sep 23 _________ (mean) 79.14 _ 1895 ____ (mean) 52.79 _ 1875 _ the wettest week ending Sep 23 was 1882 (12.12") Sep 18 - Sep 24 _________ (max) 87.71^_ 1895 ____ (max) 59.14 _ 1875 _^ 1914_87.57 Sep 18 - Sep 24 __________ (min) 69.86 _ 1895 ______ (min) 45.14 _ 1875 Sep 18 - Sep 24 _________ (mean) 78.79 _ 1895 ____ (mean) 52.14 _ 1875 _ the wettest week ending Sep 24 was 1882 (12.14") Sep 19 - Sep 25 _________ (max) 87.57 _ 1895 ____ (max) 60.43 _ 1875 Sep 19 - Sep 25 __________ (min) 69.57 _ 1895 ____ (min) 45.71 _ 1875 Sep 19 - Sep 25 _________ (mean) 78.57 _ 1895 ____ (mean) 53.07 _ 1875 _ the wettest week ending Sep 25 was 1882 (12.18") Sep 20 - Sep 26 _________ (max) 89.29 _ 1895^____ (max) 61.43 _ 1887 _^ 1970_87.86 Sep 20 - Sep 26 __________ (min) 70.43^_ 1895 ______ (min) 46.57 _ 1875 ^ _ 69.86 _ 1970 Sep 20 - Sep 26 _________ (mean) 79.86 _ 1895 ____ (mean) 54.21 _ 1875 _ the wettest week ending Sep 26 was 1882 (12.23") _ September weekly max Sep 21 - Sep 27 _________ (max) 87.57 _ 1970 ______ (min) 60.86 _ 1887 Sep 21 - Sep 27 __________ (min) 69.29 _ 1891 ______ (min) 46.71 _ 1875 Sep 21 - Sep 27 _________ (mean) 78.36 _ 1970 ____ (mean) 54.07 _ 1887 _ the wettest week ending Sep 27 was 1882 (11.94") Sep 22 - Sep 28 _________ (max) 85.43 _ 2017^ _____ (max) 59.14 _ 1887 _ ^ 1970_85.29 Sep 22 - Sep 28 __________ (min) 70.43 _ 1891 ______ (min) 44.71 _ 1947 Sep 22 - Sep 28 _________ (mean) 77.07 _ 1881 ____ (mean) 53.00 _ 1887 _ the wettest week ending Sep 28 was 1882 (10.89") Sep 23 - Sep 29 _________ (max) 85.57 _ 1881 ______ (max) 58.71 _ 1887 Sep 23 - Sep 29 __________ (min) 70.14 _ 1891 ______ (min) 45.00 _ 1947 Sep 23 - Sep 29 _________ (mean) 77.71 _ 1881 ____ (mean) 52.79 _ 1887 _ the wettest week ending Sep 29 was 2023 (8.86") _ 1882 (8.82") Sep 24 - Sep 30 _________ (max) 85.14 _ 1881 ______ (max) 59.57 _ 1887 Sep 24 - Sep 30 __________ (min) 69.43 _ 1881 ______ (min) 45.29 _ 1947 Sep 24 - Sep 30 _________ (mean) 77.29 _ 1881 ____ (mean) 53.43 _ 1928 _ the wettest week ending Sep 30 was 2023 (7.90") __ 1975 (5.15") ________________________________________ please note: this thread will now be completed with monthly posts, and that includes January to June which I will add near the end of the year in earlier (edited) posts, as I consolidate the weekly posts for July-August into monthly compilations. .

Forward section of eyewall likely to be near or just west of Kenner LA within two-three hours and 20-30 miles east of Baton Rouge by 7 pm. That is based on 12z RGEM upper low positions verifying. This is not quite worst case scenario for New Orleans which would be in the first concentric band as of present configuration. MSY is closer to Kenner than most of the city however. It's a slight break for Baton Rouge if that track verifies as they would be on the weaker side of the eyewall or just outside it. However the heaviest rainfalls are likely to be in a zone 20-50 miles west of the track and those could amount to 12-15 inches given the slowing forward speed. River flooding will become a bigger part of the story by Monday.

Looks like Ida was taking a selfie.

Appears to be heading steadily towards the mouth of the Mississippi or within 25 miles west of that for landfall, and it reminds me of the 1900 Galveston hurricane which probably peaked around landfall at cat-4. I will take their word for the reduced surge threat where the levees are in place but what about water flooding up from the Gulf through low-lying areas west of the River? Has that been fortified at all? It has probably been quite a long time since this type of inundation occurred so close to greater New Orleans, cases that come to mind were further west.

Isn't the dynamic for Lake Pontchartrain rising water levels from a surge entering from the east? I don't think the northerly wind after Katrina was the real killer for the weakening barriers, it was the rising water levels. This track could bring surges inland through the swamps and up the Mississippi and also raise Lake Pontchartrain levels but that work done since 2005 might help. I think this will play out as worse for wind damage and in some parishes west of NOLA worse for flooding. It may be equal for wind damage along the MS coast, or not quite as bad. At this point I think evacuating west makes a lot more sense than east, as long as you go at least as far as east Texas.

On a regional basis this could be higher impact than Katrina, where all storm surge came in from the east and affected mostly areas southeast of New Orleans rather than west. This one is about 50 miles further west, and storm surge will come into regions on the west side of the Mississippi but could also repeat Katrina's surge into the southeast. Also it looks like it could be stronger in terms of wind gusts.

On track to pass this buoy just to the west in about 12 hours ... https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42003 Looking at all guidance, the thing that stands out is the lack of any disruptive influences, so that given the SST values ahead of the storm, intensification could be extreme. I think cat-4 is most likely but cat-5 is possible (around 28-29N). Also the track looks quite bad for surge issues not directly related to Lake Pontchartrain so that outcomes may need to be assessed independent of that sort of surge (although it could come into the mix and be partially mitigated by the aforementioned upgrades). Since no organized evacuation efforts seem likely, would hope that a very poor second best response is scrambled into place, which would be to position all possible military water rescue assets around Lake Charles through the day Saturday into Sunday morning, with the objective of moving them into affected regions Sunday night and Monday once a clear idea exists about where they are most needed. They are probably going to be needed urgently in parishes south and west of New Orleans if not in the city itself.

The table produced last week showing the counts you need now to reach your forecast targets has been updated on the assumption that Ida does make it to major (the first two numbers in this revised count are already verified). This table will be adjusted if Ida does not become a major, and also at any point that the count changes again (with two likely candidates out there this could be soon although I might wait for those to show their potential before doing the adjustments). (added later _ currently 10/4/2 with Julian, waiting to see what happens to TD 10 and these two both seem likely to remain only TS intensity, but will adjust the table after they are done with their work). (later _ Julian has already been declared post-tropical after a brief spell as a TS -- will now update the table for this known element). Some of our forecasts look very promising at this point with quite plausible "rest of season" counts to verify.

Final scores for August 2021 Scores are based on the end of month values in the previous post above. BOS scores have been set by minimum progression (60, 55, 50 etc) as highest raw score was 56. However, some of the lower raw scores are maintained since they turned out higher than the progression values. The boosted scores have this symbol ^. 1% reductions for BKViking are incorporated into the scoring (*) FORECASTER __________DCA_NYC_BOS__east _ORD_ATL_IAH__cent_c/e _ DEN_PHX_SEA__west ___ TOTAL Roger Smith ____________100 _ 92 _60^__ 252__ 74_ 74 _ 96 __ 244 _ 496 _ 80 _ 74 _ 86 __ 240 ____ 736 wxallannj _______________ 94 _100 _ 55^__ 249 __ 68 _ 80 _ 60 __ 208 _ 457 _ 78 _ 74 _ 92 __244 ____ 701 wxdude64 ______________ 76 _ 84 _ 50^__ 210 __ 58 _ 88 _ 68 __ 214 _ 424 __ 72 _ 46 _ 98 __216 ____ 640 RJay ____________________ 90 _ 96 _ 30 __ 216 __ 34 _ 96 _ 84 __ 214 _ 430 _100_ 44 _ 62 __206 ____ 636 BKViking ____ (-1%) _____ 79*_ 87*_ 30 __196 __ 42 _ 91*_ 97*__230 _ 426 _ 79*_ 53*_ 71*__203 ____ 629 Scotty Lightning ________ 90 _ 92 _ 45^__ 227 __ 54 _ 74 _ 76 __ 204 _ 431 _ 70 _ 34 _ 92 __ 196 ____ 627 ___ Consensus __________ 80 _ 90 _ 32 __ 202 __ 44 _ 90 _ 82 __ 216 _ 418 _ 76 _ 54 _ 78 __ 208 ____ 626 RodneyS ________________62 _ 70 _ 35^__ 171 __ 68 _ 86 _ 70 __ 224 __ 395 _ 58 _ 80 _ 78 __ 216 ____ 611 Tom _____________________74 _ 82 _ 26 __ 182 __ 32 _ 86 _ 94 __ 212 _ 394 __ 80 _ 54 _ 80 __ 214____ 608 hudsonvalley21 _________ 80 _ 90 _ 24 __ 194 __ 20 _ 86 _ 80 __ 186 _ 380 _ 82 _ 50 _ 78 __ 210 ____ 590 ___ Normal ______________70 _ 72 _ 16 __ 158 __ 34 _ 96 _ 84 __ 214 _ 372 __ 50 _ 64 _ 98 __ 212 ____ 584 Deformation Zone ______ 70 _ 82 _ 45^__ 197 __ 44 _ 76 _ 44 __ 164 _ 361 __ 60 _ 86 _ 72 __ 216 ____ 577 so_whats_happening ___ 86 _ 92 _ 05^ __ 183 __ 06 _ 90 _ 92 __ 188 _ 371 _ 72 _ 58 _ 74 __ 204 ____ 575 DonSutherland1 _________78 _ 84 _ 26 __ 188 __ 34 _ 82 _ 64 __ 180 _ 368 __ 54 _ 46 _ 70 __ 170 ____ 538 __________________________________________________________ EXTREME FORECAST REPORT DCA _ At +1.5 Roger Smith with warmest forecast (+1.5) has a win. NYC _ At +1.4 wxallannj (+1.4) has a win, Roger Smith (+1.8) a loss. BOS _ At +4.2 Roger Smith with warmest forecast (+2.0) has a win. ORD _ At +3.3 Roger Smith with warmest forecast (+2.0) has a win. DEN _ at +2.5, RJay with warmest forecast (+2.5) takes a win. PHX _ At -1.8 Deformation Zone with coldest forecast (-2.5) has a win. SEA _ At +0.1 wxdude64 with coldest forecast (+0.2) has a win. Normal also scores a win. ATL, IAH did not qualify for extreme forecasts.

Current top 21 July-August total rainfalls at NYC Rank __ Year __ JUL __ AUG ___ total _01 ____ 2011 __ 3.03 _ 18.95 __ 21.98 _02 ____ 2021 _ 11.09 __ 9.65 __ 20.74 (five days to add) _03 ____ 1971 __ 7.20 __ 9.37 __ 16.57 _04 ____ 1927 __ 6.48 __ 9.83 __ 16.31 _05 ____ 1942 __ 7.15 __ 9.08 __ 16.23 _06 ____ 1889 _ 11.89 __ 4.27 __ 16.16 _07 ____ 2018 __ 7.45 __ 8.59 __ 16.04 _08 ____ 1990 __ 3.51 _ 12.36 __ 15.87 _09 ____ 1975 _ 11.77 __ 3.05 __ 14.82 _ 10 ____ 1960 __ 8.29 __ 6.26 __ 14.55 _ 11 ____ 1919 __ 8.50 __ 5.82 __ 14.32 _ 12 ____ 1901 __ 7.64 __ 6.55 __ 14.19 _ 13 ____ 1873 __ 4.61 __ 9.56 __ 14.17 _ 14 ____ 1872 __ 7.83 __ 6.29 __ 14.12 _ 15 ____ 2007 __ 6.89 __ 7.18 __ 14.07 _ 16 ____ 1875 __ 4.86 __ 8.97 __ 13.83 _ 17 ____ 1880 __ 8.53 __ 5.26 __ 13.79 _ 18 ____ 1926 __ 6.38 __ 7.28 __ 13.66 _ 19 ____ 1989 __ 5.13 __ 8.44 __ 13.57 _ 20 ____ 1928 __ 8.89 __ 4.57 __ 13.46 _ 21 ____ 1897 __ 9.56 __ 3.77 __ 13.33 _______________________________________________ With only 2.62" in June, the met-summer total for 2021 is currently 23.36" which is ranked second -- 2011 remains ahead at 25.23" and 1975 is third at 22.40" while 1989 fourth at 22.36" -- seems then that 2021 has a chance of finishing as wettest met summer. It needs 1.88" more to beat 2011. (1903 not in the above list had 20.43" thanks to a very wet June ... 20th place 1928 above moved well up the list for summer with 20.50" as June also quite wet). 2003 is well up the list thanks to a very wet June, its JJA total was 19.87" but it was well outside this list for JA. The same is true for 2006 which had a total of 20.79" but only 12.24" of that in July-Aug. A third example is 2009 with a summer total of 21.38" thanks to 10.05" in June. 2007 had almost the same summer total as 2006 (20.62") but qualified for the above list in 15th adding 6.55" inches from June. Current top twenty for summer totals ... 1. 2011 (25.23) ________ 11. 2003 (19.87) 2. 2021 (23.36) _______ 12. 1942 (19.82) 3. 1975 (22.40) _______ 13. 2018 (19.15) 4. 1989 (22.36) _______ 14. 1971 (18.88) 5. 2009 (21.38) _______ 15. 1889 (18.55) 6. 2006 (20.79) ______ 16. 1990 (18.37) 7. 2007 (20.62) _______ 17. 1871 (18.22) 8. 1928 (20.50) _______ 18. 1919 (18.16) 9. 1903 (20.43) _______ 19. 1884 (17.62) 10. 1927 (20.01) _______ 20. 1967 (17.57) Note that seven of the top 13 are in the period 2003 to 2021. Half of the list dates back only to 1975 (the most recent 47 cases with 106 others taking the other half, note three cases from 1967 to 1975 and the only other semblance of a cluster was 1919 to 1928 with three.

Predict the temperature anomalies (relative to 1991-2020 normal values) for DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA (deadline 06z Wed Sep 1 2021)

I would say probably yes it does exceed 10" by about Saturday 28th as weak fronts stall and waves move along them, but as to amounts, could be anywhere from 1-4 inches, so may only just make it. Toronto has weather records going back to 1840 and the early 1840s had some very heavy rainfalls there, which are probably before most U.S. stations began their observing periods, although Caswell's Providence RI journal operated from 1831 to 1860. There were no examples of two months both hitting 10" or more at Toronto but in years from 1841 to 1843 there was enough rain at Toronto to suggest to me that it might be quite likely some U.S. locations which may have been in the path of tropical remnants that were part of these events may have reached totals that high. Rainfall was particularly excessive in late July and early August of 1841, and September of 1843. I found five or six week intervals that measured over 12" of rain in both cases. Looking now at Caswell's journal the highest two month total I found was 14.75" in July-Aug 1853. However his journal indicates that a rainfall on the night of July 12-13 1834 overflowed the capacity of his seven inch rain gauge and he isn't sure how much actually fell that night. Although his journal is admirable for general completeness and attention to detail, there are a few missing days and possibly missing precip on a few occasions, also it was interesting that when a hurricane hit the region on Oct 7, 1849, he details the events but never mentions the word hurricane (this is listed as a cat2-3 landfall that caused over a hundred deaths in s.e. MA -- the track looks like it went just barely to the east of Providence since he never got into tropical air and winds went strong NE to NW). If you don't already have this bookmarked, the journal can be seen in its entirety here: https://books.google.ca/books?id=oYY_AAAAcAAJ&pg=PA168&source=gbs_toc_r&cad=3#v=onepage&q&f=false If that fails to load, look for the wikipedia entry for Alexis Caswell and then in the footnotes, the reference to his weather journal which was preserved by the Smithsonian Institute. Caswell is seen as one of the forerunners of development of late 19th century meteorological science in America.

CONTINUED REPORT ON WEEKLY EXTREMES for WEEKS ENDING IN AUGUST Intervals _______________ Highest values 1869-2022 __ Lowest values 1869-2022 July 26 - Aug 1 ___________ (max) 94.14 _ 1999 _____ (max) 73.00 _ 2000 July 26 - Aug 1 ___________ (min) 75.86 _ 1995 ______ (min) 61.43 _ 1920 July 26 - Aug 1 __________ (mean) 84.29 _ 1999 ____ (mean) 69.07 _ 2000 _ the wettest week ending Aug 1 was 1889 (8.45") July 27 - Aug 2 ___________ (max) 94.43 _ 1933 _____ (max) 75.29 _ 2000 July 27 - Aug 2 ___________ (min) 76.57 _ 2006 ______ (min) 61.43 _ 1871 July 27 - Aug 2 __________ (mean) 84.21 _ 1995^____ (mean) 69.29 _ 1914 _^ 84.14 1917 _ the wettest week ending Aug 2 was 1889 (8.47") July 28 - Aug 3 ___________ (max) 95.00 _ 1933 _____ (max) 75.00 _ 1875 July 28 - Aug 3 ___________ (min) 77.14 _ 2006 ______ (min) 61.14 _ 1914 July 28 - Aug 3 __________ (mean) 84.64 _ 2006^____ (mean) 68.64 _ 1914 _^ 84.50 1933 _ the wettest week ending Aug 3 was 1971 (6.61") July 29 - Aug 4 __________ (max) 94.43 _ 1933_2002 __ (max) 75.43 _ 1875 July 29 - Aug 4 ___________ (min) 77.29 _ 2006 ______ (min) 61.71 _ 1956 July 29 - Aug 4 __________ (mean) 84.00 _ 1999^____ (mean) 69.50 _ 1914 _ the wettest week ending Aug 4 was 1971 (6.68") July 30 - Aug 5 __________ (max) 93.71 _ 2002 ______ (max) 75.43 _ 1978 July 30 - Aug 5 ___________ (min) 77.00 _ 2006 ______ (min) 60.14 _ 1912 July 30 - Aug 5 __________ (mean) 84.57 _ 2006 ____ (mean) 68.93 _ 1912 _ the wettest week ending Aug 5 was 1889 (6.41") July 31 - Aug 6 __________ (max) 95.00 _ 1955 ______ (max) 73.29 _ 1903 July 31 - Aug 6 ___________ (min) 76.29 _ 2006 ______ (min) 59.00 _ 1912 July 31 - Aug 6 __________ (mean) 84.71 _ 1955 ____ (mean) 67.79 _ 1903 _ the wettest week ending Aug 6 was 1878 (6.22") Aug 1 - Aug 7 __________ (max) 96.14 _ 1955 ______ (max) 73.43 _ 1886_1903 Aug 1 - Aug 7 ___________ (min) 76.43 _ 2006 ______ (min) 58.86 _ 1912 Aug 1 - Aug 7 __________ (mean) 85.71 _ 1955 ____ (mean) 66.36 _ 1886 _ the wettest week ending Aug 7 was 1878 (6.22") Aug 2 - Aug 8 __________ (max) 94.00 _ 1955 ______ (max) 72.43 _ 1903 Aug 2 - Aug 8 ___________(min) 75.57 _ 1908,2022 _ (min) 58.00 _ 1886 Aug 2 - Aug 8 __________ (mean) 84.21 _ 1955 ____ (mean) 65.79 _ 1886 _ the wettest week ending Aug 8 was 1915 (4.79") Aug 3 - Aug 9 __________ (max) 93.57^_ 1980_2001 __ (max) 72.00 _ 1903 __ 2022 92.14 Aug 3 - Aug 9 ___________ (min) 76.43 _ 2022 ______ (min) 58.71 _ 1886 __ 1908 76.29 Aug 3 - Aug 9 __________ (mean) 84.86 _ 1980 ____ (mean) 66.29 _ 1866 _ the wettest week ending Aug 9 was 1976 (4.89") __ ^There was hot weather in this period in 1918 with the August maximum of 104F on the 7th, but the highest 7-day average was 90.57 for Aug 3-9. Aug 4 - Aug 10 __________ (max) 95.29 _ 2001 _____ (max) 72.71 _ 1903 Aug 4 - Aug 10 ___________ (min) 77.57* _ 1896 ______ (min) 60.00 _ 1886 *_ 2022 77.00 Aug 4 - Aug 10 __________ (mean) 85.93*_ 1896 ___ (mean) 66.79 _ 1903 *_ 85.57 2001 _ the wettest week ending Aug 10 was 1990 (8.46") Aug 5 - Aug 11 __________ (max) 95.14 _ 1896 ______ (max) 73.43 _ 1903 Aug 5 - Aug 11 ___________ (min) 78.86*_ 1896 ______ (min) 61.00 _ 1883_94 *_ 2022 76.43 Aug 5 - Aug 11 __________ (mean) 87.00 _ 1896 ____ (mean) 68.21 _ 1886 _ the wettest week ending Aug 11 was 1990 (9.96") _ Aug maximum weekly total Aug 6 - Aug 12 __________ (max) 95.00 _ 1896 ______ (max) 74.57 _ 1903 Aug 6 - Aug 12 ___________ (min) 79.14 _ 1896 ______ (min) 61.14 _ 1883 Aug 6 - Aug 12 __________ (mean) 87.07 _ 1896 ____ (mean) 68.07 _ 1903 _ the wettest week ending Aug 12 was 1990 (9.85") Aug 7 - Aug 13 __________ (max) 94.71 _ 1896 ______ (max) 74.71 _ 1884 Aug 7 - Aug 13 ___________ (min) 79.00 _ 1896 ______ (min) 61.14 _ 1989 Aug 7 - Aug 13 __________ (mean) 86.86 _ 1896 ____ (mean) 68.14 _ 1903 _ the wettest week ending Aug 13 was 1955 (8.25") Aug 8 - Aug 14 __________ (max) 94.29 _ 1944 ______ (max) 74.71 _ 1903 Aug 8 - Aug 14 ___________ (min) 78.57 _ 1896 ______ (min) 60.57 _ 1919 Aug 8 - Aug 14 __________ (mean) 85.50 _ 1896^____ (mean) 68.36 _ 1903 _^ 85.36_1988 _ the wettest week ending Aug 14 was 2011 (7.90") Aug 9 - Aug 15 __________ (max) 95.71 _ 1944^______ (max) 75.43 _ 1962 _^ 95.29 _ 1988 Aug 9 - Aug 15 ___________ (min) 78.00 _ 1988 ______ (min) 59.43 _ 1964 Aug 9 - Aug 15 __________ (mean) 86.64 _ 1988 ____ (mean) 67.86 _ 1962 _ the wettest week ending Aug 15 was 2011 (8.46") Aug 10 - Aug 16 __________ (max) 96.86 _ 1944 ______ (max) 74.43 _ 1883 Aug 10 - Aug 16 ___________ (min) 78.14 _ 1988 ______ (min) 59.86 _ 1964 Aug 10 - Aug 16 __________ (mean) 86.21 _ 1988 ____ (mean) 68.43 _ 1883_94 _ the wettest week ending Aug 16 was 1955 (7.35") Aug 11 - Aug 17 __________ (max) 96.57 _ 1944 ______ (max) 74.00 _ 1909 Aug 11 - Aug 17 ___________ (min) 77.86 _ 1988 ______ (min) 59.71 _ 1963_79 Aug 11 - Aug 17 __________ (mean) 85.86 _ 1944 ____ (mean) 67.57 _ 1930 _ the wettest week ending Aug 17 was 1955 (7.30") Aug 12 - Aug 18 __________ (max) 94.57 _ 2002 ______ (max) 72.86 _ 1919 Aug 12 - Aug 18 ___________ (min) 76.86 _ 1908_88 ___ (min) 59.57 _ 1979 Aug 12 - Aug 18 __________ (mean) 85.29 _ 2002 ____ (mean) 67.00 _ 1979 _ the wettest week ending Aug 18 was 1955 (7.60") Aug 13 - Aug 19 __________ (max) 94.29 _ 2002 ______ (max) 72.00 _ 1919 Aug 13 - Aug 19 ___________ (min) 76.71 _ 2016 ______ (min) 58.71 _ 1964 Aug 13 - Aug 19 __________ (mean) 85.29 _ 2002 ____ (mean) 67.07 _ 1919 _ the wettest week ending Aug 19 was 2011 (7.70") Aug 14 - Aug 20 __________ (max) 92.00 _ 2002 ______ (max) 72.86 _ 1881 Aug 14 - Aug 20 ___________ (min) 75.14 _ 2016 ______ (min) 58.43 _ 1964 Aug 14 - Aug 20 __________ (mean) 83.14 _ 2002 ____ (mean) 67.21 _ 1887_1927 _ the wettest week ending Aug 20 was 2011 (7.70") Aug 15 - Aug 21 __________ (max) 91.57 _ 1959 ______ (max) 73.86 _ 1881_1927 Aug 15 - Aug 21 ___________ (min) 75.00 _ 2015 ______ (min) 58.71 _ 1886 Aug 15 - Aug 21 __________ (mean) 82.50 _ 1959_2015 __ (mean) 66.71 _ 1927 _ the wettest week ending Aug 21 was 1873 (5.63") Aug 16 - Aug 22 __________ (max) 90.71 _ 1959 ______ (max) 72.29 _ 2007 Aug 16 - Aug 22 ___________ (min) 74.43 _ 2015 ______ (min) 57.86 _ 1886 Aug 16 - Aug 22 __________ (mean) 81.93 _ 1959 ____ (mean) 66.50 _ 2007 _ the wettest week ending Aug 22 was 1873 (5.73") _ this record was broken on Aug 22, 2021 when a weekly total of 7.32" was achieved. Aug 17 - Aug 23 __________ (max) 89.14 _ 1983 ______ (max) 71.14 _ 2007 Aug 17 - Aug 23 ___________ (min) 75.57 _ 1906 ______ (min) 57.14 _ 1886 Aug 17 - Aug 23 __________ (mean) 80.93 _ 1906 ____ (mean) 65.07 _ 2007 _ the wettest week ending Aug 23 was 1933 (5.80") _ this record was broken on Aug 22, 2021 when a weekly total of 7.32" was achieved. Another 1.07" fell on Aug 23 making the new record 8.39". Aug 18 - Aug 24 __________ (max) 88.57 _ 1983 ______ (max) 70.86 _ 2007 Aug 18 - Aug 24 ___________ (min) 74.86 _ 1906 ______ (min) 56.43 _ 1886 Aug 18 - Aug 24 __________ (mean) 80.29 _ 1906 ____ (mean) 65.21 _ 2007 _ the wettest week ending Aug 24 was 1893 (7.75") _ this record is now broken with a total from 18th to 24th of 8.39" . Aug 19 - Aug 25 __________ (max) 88.00 _ 1972_83 ____ (max) 72.14 _ 1926 Aug 19 - Aug 25 ___________ (min) 74.00 _ 1906 ______ (min) 57.29 _ 1886 Aug 19 - Aug 25 __________ (mean) 79.86 _ 2015 ____ (mean) 67.00 _ 1940 _ the wettest week ending Aug 25 was 1893 (7.75") _ this record is now broken with a total from 19th to 25th 2021 of 8.39". Aug 20 - Aug 26 __________ (max) 88.86 _ 1976 ____ (max) 72.57 _ 1926 Aug 20 - Aug 26 ___________ (min) 73.14*_ 1891 ______ (min) 56.43 _ 1940 _ *73.00 2021 Aug 20 - Aug 26 __________ (mean) 79.64 _ 1939_2021 ____ (mean) 65.00 _ 1940 _ the wettest week ending Aug 26 was 1893 (6.41") _ this record is now broken with a total from 20th to 26th 2021 of 8.19". Aug 21 - Aug 27 __________ (max) 89.86 _ 1948 ____ (max) 71.29 _ 1927 Aug 21 - Aug 27 ___________ (min) 73.86*_ 1891 ______ (min) 55.86 _ 1940 * 73.00_2021 Aug 21 - Aug 27__________ (mean) 80.21 _ 1948 ____ (mean) 64.29 _ 1940 * 79.71_2021 _ the wettest week ending Aug 27 was 1933 (5.65") _ this record is now broken with a total from 21st to 27rd 2021 of 8.86". _____________________________________________________________ ^^ This interval has less impressive late summer warmth than the next week or two, with heat waves in 1948 and 1953 for example pushing average weekly maxima back up to around 95 F or higher. _____________________________________________________________ Aug 22 - Aug 28 __________ (max) 92.29 _ 1948 ____ (max) 70.29 _ 1927 Aug 22 - Aug 28 ___________ (min) 72.86 _ 1891*______ (min) 56.00 _ 1940 * 72.29_2021 Aug 22 - Aug 28 __________ (mean) 82.29 _ 1948 ____ (mean) 63.21 _ 1940 _ the wettest week ending Aug 28 was 2011 (7.36") Aug 23 - Aug 29 __________ (max) 94.43 _ 1948^____ (max) 69.57 _ 1940 _^ 1980_91.86 Aug 23 - Aug 29 ___________ (min) 74.00*_ 1948 ______ (min) 55.71 _ 1940 *_ 2022 73.00 Aug 23 - Aug 29 __________ (mean) 84.21 _ 1948 ____ (mean) 62.64 _ 1940 _ the wettest week ending Aug 29 was 2011 (7.36") Aug 24 - Aug 30 __________ (max) 95.00 _ 1948 ____ (max) 68.86 _ 1940 Aug 24 - Aug 30 ___________ (min) 75.29*_ 1948 ______ (min) 56.29 _ 1940 *__ 2022 73.14 Aug 24 - Aug 30 __________ (mean) 85.14 _ 1948 ____ (mean) 62.57 _ 1940 _ the wettest week ending Aug 30 was 2011 (7.36") Aug 25 - Aug 31 __________ (max) 95.86 _ 1953*____ (max) 70.14 _ 1908 Aug 25 - Aug 31 ___________ (min) 74.43 _ 1948 ______ (min) 55.14 _ 1887 Aug 25 - Aug 31 __________ (mean) 84.64 _ 1953^____ (mean) 62.93 _ 1887 _^ 1948_84.50 _ the wettest week ending Aug 31 was 2011 (7.36") _ note that for the last four rainfall maxima which are all identical (7.36" in 2011) all of this rainfall occurred on 25th to 28th and 6.87" fell on Aug 27-28. _____________________________________________ * 1953 peaked at 98.29 for both Aug 27-Sep 2 and Aug 28-Sep 3 and holds the first four high maxima for September. A parallel heat wave in 1973 ran only slightly cooler and peaked at 95.71 for Aug 28-Sep 3. The 1973 heat wave did manage to take one of the high min spots for Aug 26-Sep 1 before 1953 began to accumulate those as well. The recent 2021 heat came as close as tying some mean minimum and daily marks, but was not that close to mean maximum.

Contest standings (Aug 25th 2021) __ declared final Sep 26th 2021 __ FORECASTER ________________DCA _NYC _BOS __ORD _BIS _ATL _IAH __ DEN _PHX _SEA__ Total dep wxallannj _______________________98 __ 96 __ 97 __ 96 _ 106 __ 97 __ 99 ___ 103 _ 121 __ 92 __ departures __________________ 1 ___ 2 ___ 3 ____ 1 ___ 1 ____ 2 ____ 0 _____ 1 ___ 3 ___ 16 ____ 30 hudsonvalley21 _______________100 _ 100 __ 99 _ 100 _ 106 ___99 _ 103 ___ 103 _ 120 __ 99 __ departures __________________ 3 ___ 2 ___ 1 ____ 5 ___ 1 ____ 4 ____ 4 _____ 1 ___ 2 ____ 9 ____ 32 BKViking ______________________100 __ 98 __ 98 __ 98 _ 109 ___99 __ 98 ___ 106 _ 119 __ 95 __ departures __________________ 3 ___ 0 ___ 2 ____ 3 ___ 2 ____ 4 ____ 1 _____ 4 ___ 1 ___ 13 ____ 33 ___ consensus (mean) _________101 __ 98 __ 99 __ 99 _ 107 _ 100 _ 103 ___ 103 _ 119 __ 95 __ departures __________________ 4 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 4 ___ 0 ____ 5 ____ 4 _____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 13 ____ 33 DonSutherland 1 ______________102 __ 96 __ 98 __ 97 _ 106 ___99 _ 103 ___ 102 _ 119 __ 94 __ departures __________________ 5 ___ 2 ___ 2 ____ 2 ___ 1 ____ 4 ____ 4 _____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 14 ____ 35 so_whats_happening __________ 99 __ 96 __ 98 __ 99 _ 108 _ 101 __ 99 ___ 104 _ 116 __ 94 __ departures __________________ 2 ___ 2 ___ 2 ____ 4 ___ 1 ____ 6 ____ 0 _____ 2 ___ 2 ___ 14 ____ 35 RJay __________________________101 __ 96 __ 99 _ 100 _ 106 ___99 _ 102 ___ 101 _ 119 __ 94 __ departures __________________ 4 ___ 2 ___ 1 ____ 5 ___ 1 ____ 4 ____ 3 _____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 14 ____ 36 Tom __________________________ 100 __ 98 __ 98 _ 101 _ 107 _ 101 __ 104 ___ 101 _ 121 __ 98 __ departures __________________ 3 ___ 0 ___ 2 ____ 6 ___ 0 ____ 6 ____ 5 _____ 1 ___ 3 ___ 10 ____ 36 wxdude64 ____________________103 _ 100 _ 101 __ 99 _ 108 __ 99 _ 104 ___ 104 _ 117 __ 96 __ departures __________________ 6 ___ 2 ___ 1 ____ 4 ___ 1 ____ 4 ____ 5 _____ 2 ___ 1 ___ 12 ____ 38 Roger Smith __________________101 __ 99 _ 100 __ 98 _ 110 __ 101 _ 106 ___ 107 _ 119 __ 99 __ departures __________________ 4 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 3 ___ 3 ____ 6 ____ 7 _____ 5 ___ 1 ____ 9 ____ 39 Scotty Lightning ______________104 _ 101 __ 98 __ 97 _ 106 _ 105 _ 109 ____ 97 _ 117 __ 92 __ departures __________________ 7 ___ 3 ___ 2 ____ 2 ___ 1 ___ 10 ___ 10 _____ 5 ___ 1 ___ 16 ____ 57 Highest to date __ (updated Aug 25) _____________ 97 __ 98 __100 __ 95 _ 107 __ 95 __ 99 ____102 __118 _ 108 _______________________________________________________________________________________ Scores for SEA are no doubt final with the all-time record high set (108F) well above all forecasts. There is probably a slight chance that any other location could edge higher, although PHX and DEN are probably done. This is therefore not the final order of the contest, and the standings are quite close near the top. (Sep 26 ... no hotter days occurred at any locations so the contest is being declared final, see next post) Quote

Here's a link to historical weather maps for Aug 21-22 1888. Also check the wikipedia entry for 1888 H3. I noticed that BOS set their Aug 22 record with this same system (3.36"). https:/www.wetterzentrale.de/reanalysis.php?map=2&model=noaa&var=1&jaar=1888&maand=08&dag=22&uur=0000&h=0&tr=360&nmaps=24#mapref The 4.19" at NYC on 21st was topped up with 0.13" more on 22nd for a total event rainfall of 4.32"

I hadn't looked at it until this happened, it now becomes one of the heaviest 24h rainfalls not to be a daily record (there are a few higher examples). This may not be complete (top five that I found in the data base) but the following daily rainfalls are not daily records (the actual ones are also shown): LIST OF DAILY RAINFALLS >3.90" NOT DAILY RECORDS Rank __ Amt __ Date _______________ Record for date 01 ____ 5.60" __ Nov 8 1972 ________ 7.40" Nov 8 1977 02 ____ 4.26" __ Oct 8 2005 ________ 4.30" Oct 8 1903 03 ____ 4.19" __ Aug 21 1888 _______ 4.45" Aug 21 2021 04 ____ 4.05" _ Sep 21 1938 _______ 5.54" Sep 21 1966 05 ____ 3.90" _ Aug 9 1976 ________ 4.10" Aug 9 1942

As you know, NYC (Central Park) broke the daily rainfall record for Aug 21 with the heavy downpours late in the day (4.45"). The previous record of 4.19" from 1888 was also of tropical origins. H3 of 1888 made landfalls in south Florida and Louisiana, then tracked northeast with the center shown near NYC by 00z Aug 22nd, later near BOS. It may have retained TS intensity until about that time. The max and min listed for Aug 21 1888 were 72 and 63, suggesting perhaps east to northeast winds all day with those downpours probably lasting most of the day (a further 0.13" was recorded after midnight for the 22nd in 1888). The Aug 22 record for NYC is only 1.85" (1994), part of a total 3.02" rainfall on the 21st-22nd that year.

Have to wonder if the western closed low is pulling in the entire circulation of Henri, which will result in a NW or even WNW track for part of the night and landfall in western LI towards 15z. The heavy rainfall band looks like a boundary between circulations around the two upper lows. It would probably drift very slowly west if there is a capture, then the heavy rain bands of Henri would move into central LI. Eventually the remnant low could drift into the Hudson valley and move into southern Vermont and central NH.