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wxsniss

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  1. wxsniss
    Agree Tip summed it: we've been headfaked by compelling guidance so many times this winter, and by a similar synopsis just days ago. On the other hand, GFS has been amazingly steady relative to the Euro. I haven't looked carefully but someone should check upstream realtime location of the ULL ejecting from the southwest. For example at hour 12z Friday, GFS has it over central-south Arkansas vs. NAM has it already into Missouri vs. Euro has it northern Arkansas. The differences amplify from there.
  2. wxsniss
    Just catching up, noticed 12z/18z GFS close H7, nice CCB Tough forecast for the margins, especially ~ pike south... 50 mile error is well within range
  3. wxsniss
    ICON looks like carbon copy of GFS
  4. wxsniss
    24hr snowfall on 6z GFS, 10:1 key thing to highlight... this is all under 84hrs I think for the first time this season...!
  5. wxsniss
    If the goalposts are GFS and Euro, we are golden. Still would rather Euro continue to trend towards GFS to give us more buffer. It's really striking how steady the GFS has been with this vs. Euro cycling back 10+ runs.
  6. wxsniss
    Kind of similar to the trailing energy today. As Tip called it, the "leitmotif". Feels like variation of today's theme, except a much more robust system and earlier commitment to secondary before decay.
  7. wxsniss
    0z / 12z... I think this is a significant step towards the consensus (led by king GFS?)
  8. wxsniss
    You're right... it's not by much. But it does transfer to the secondary a tick faster than 12z.
  9. wxsniss
    There it is... 0z Euro is starting to cave... can see a transfer by 12z Sat
  10. wxsniss
    I commented on this last night... GFS has been remarkably steady for ~10 runs now. Euro quite the opposite, with steps north that (hopefully) may have overshot by over-amplifying the primary and holding on too long. So... in the growing chatter about dethroning the king, this upcoming system will be one of the more prominent showdowns of GFS vs. Euro.
  11. wxsniss
    Portrait of a decaying system The best dynamics never made it further northeast. For most of eastern MA, aside from that first hour last night, pretty meager rates and snowgrowth everywhere. Compounded by warming temps since 12z today, this had no chance even with northern stream infusion this afternoon. I can't find a single forecast (including stereotypically conservative forecasters like Dave Epstein) that had 0-2" for northeastern half of MA.
  12. wxsniss
    Haven't looked carefully to decipher it, but there must be some impact of having this current system pass on the upcoming confluence. Maybe trends tonight (beginning with this 18z GFS we hope) will reflect that.
  13. wxsniss
    Ironically, one of the rare instances when Dave Epstein put out a forecast that was not conservative, and that too busted
  14. wxsniss
    Disappointing for sure. I thought this event would surely top Feb 23. Kudos to Boston metro schools for not simply using the surplus of unspent school days Do we get a single warning event this year...
  15. wxsniss
    Best rates were in the first hour 1-2am... but for the most part dry air and poor snowgrowth quickly turned this into an under-performer for eastern Mass overnight The best dynamics simply did not survive this far northeast compared to CT I wonder how qpf compares to the robust mesos yesterday And for the rest of the day... mesos aren't giving me confidence that we see rates sufficient to overcome temps currently above freezing past 495 belt
  16. wxsniss
    Wetbulbed a bit too, now 29/26 Mesos tempered a bit but still think we see >4” Your elevation will help
  17. wxsniss
    ...and fwiw, GFS has objectively been the most consistent for the past 4 runs Euro has been steadily ticking north and I suspect overshot, perhaps over-amplified the primary that held on too long +/- underestimated the confluence on the 0z run
  18. wxsniss
    0z Euro is congrats Montreal... its northernmost run yet Maybe this storm will be remembered for how the CMC scored an astonishing upset?
  19. wxsniss
    First flakes Brookline ~1am Took a while to overcome dry lower levels 31/27
  20. wxsniss
    Where is it snowing?
  21. wxsniss
    Let's hope so. Will be a nowcast. With guidance trends at 18z, BL temps seem to be the main reason we don't have more widespread WSW east of ORH.
  22. wxsniss
    18z GFS as others have said... No longer just a blip on a few mesos... GFS also a tick colder in latter part of storm, BL temps will be critical for eastern areas
  23. wxsniss
    There's definite hint of that on mesos... we discussed this last night... I think a key ingredient seems to be a late-game bit of infusion of northern stream energy
  24. wxsniss
    Wow... (18z 3k NAM)
  25. wxsniss
    Another bump up following good trends this afternoon...
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