wxsniss

I posted the Box disco an example that it was not just people on this forum who were taking yesterday's guidance and the large scale pattern to believe there was a decent chance of snow.

Let's not blame anyone for believing yesterday's guidance and the large scale pattern that we'd have a decent chance at snow... this is one of the more egregious model swings I've seen in a while. People on this forum are not alone: NWS zone forecasts still have 50% chance snow for most of SNE next Thursday... NWS long range disco from last night: Thursday... Late next week ensemble height anomalies become configured across N.A. to support a potential Northeast winter storm, with a large amplitude west coast ridge, driving an amplifying downstream trough over the MS & OH valley. In addition, anomalous Greenland ridge extending into the NW Atlantic, supporting a negative tilt trough from the OH valley into the Mid Atlantic. This likely precludes system from heading out to sea, but also possibly tracking too close to the coast for an all snow event. Storm track and ptype will remain unknown until sometime next week. Also worth noting, tides are astronomically high, with Boston at 11.28 ft MLLW 9:38 am Thu, and 11.64 ft MLLW at 10:27 am Fri. Thus, we will need to watch this closely as coastal flooding is possible.

Even folks in Chicago will be disappointed this is cutting too much on this run Only a ~700 mile shift in track since 12z yesterday. Horrendous model continuity at surface and aloft. This is completely out of range of even the 0z ensembles tracks.

I posted this yesterday in response to those rooting for a better phase... the less proficient phase was doing us a favor with the trough axis as depicted... unless we get a GFS solution digging almost to the Gulf, we have risk of a hugger At least 3 correcting factors we can hope for, and plenty of time for a combination of these to improve outcome: 1) west coast ridge shifts a bit more east 2) our main monster shortwave digs farther southeast similar to depictions yesterday 3) a minor lead shortwave establishes better confluence ahead of our main shortwave, also similar to GFS yesterday... perhaps a less proficient phase but that works in our favor

Both 18z and 0z GFS had this feature, hence the more disjointed cyclogenesis 12z GFS did not, and cyclogenesis was entirely focused at the monster digging shortwave

Agree. Like you said earlier, we aren't going to see perfect phases on consecutive run after run of OPs Also, more efficient/earlier phase (like 0z CMC) has greater risk of hugging. I like where ensembles are at the moment.

Just looked at Euro OP... piecemeal phasing that spreads the wealth in space and time, but close to a much bigger hit if that shortwave diving to Carolinas caught up GEFS+EPS look great Obviously the best signal we've had this season... Gonna be alot of distracted folks at upcoming holiday parties

GEFS in a good spot... a few 960s right off Cape

207-213 GFS about as upper echelon as you can get for SNE Near textbook perfection at 8 days (vs. 6z GFS), the big ones often have that kind of epic signal that wavers in and out CMC swings too late

Holy cow that is exotic

Same... car tops and grass are white. Given this quick start and what I'm seeing upstream, we may actually pull off 0.5-1" from this. First event of season always gets a low bar lol

First flakes of season in Boston metro!!! Always electric even if it's a meager start. Some dry air on soundings to overcome and I was anticipating a little virga, so glad to see it start already.

Euro similar to UK and other guidance tonight bigger ridge in front, primary holds on much longer, rain to at least CNE... still tons of time for this to trend back... this could look vastly different come Tuesday once that 50/50 low feature sets up

Hoping some OES expands north to Boston metro overnight as NAM suggests... Congrats CT, soundings below from nice band sweeping through tomorrow afternoon... totals could be close to warning criteria in parts:

2 bonafide threats inside 7 days... preceding OES underway... what's not to like. Pattern change and surface results arriving exactly as progged by many. Based on current guidance only, 12/16 has bigger risk of LBSW than suppression imo... I mentioned earlier southwest capture yesterday as the ULL catches up to SLP. Big dog more like than not, but details very much will be in flux pending track of of the 50/50 low in next few days. GFS is heavily outnumbered here. Have a fun time at GTG folks!

Agree Relatedly, looks like surface low gets captured earlier and further southwest at 12z Great look for southeast NY / western SNE / CNE, but we're a long way away

EPS also ticked southwest/more hugging with 12/16 track of 50/50 low feature and block still in flux, we could see very different solutions after Sunday's system clears

50/50 low feature actually seemed to dig a bit more 12z vs. 0z... so while a hugger, surface low initially gets squashed further south... obviously all of this still in flux

Vort coming in stronger on 12z Euro for Sunday... should be more widespread and better snowfall than 0z

Cool to track if only for the exoticness... would be more prolific snow producer if it had more moisture to work with

I knew what you meant, just being pedantic. In any case, prospect of first flakes always has extra edge, but otherwise agree with CoastalWx... these aren't the droids you're looking for.

Yeah I hear you. I'd say more smeared southeast than too early LBSW Maybe ensembles last night were a flash in the pan and we'll see the block dominate going forward. Still very possible to get a better outcome, e.g. if shortwave comes in stronger In any case, I'm just hoping to see my first flakes lol... Similar to your outlook, I'm keeping my higher expectations for more favorable PNA hopefully late December into January

18z vs. 12z EPS a touch less robust for 12/12 system... can't see H5 but guessing continues 12z-18z theme today of greater block... fluctuations in outcomes today but certainly track-worthy, especially if shortwave comes in stronger

Way out there but Dec 16-17 timeframe also trending nicely on EPS After all the din of worries, we'll hopefully see the potential of this period materialize